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So is now the time to go and buy some gold?


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Well-Oiled Disaster Coming - Mike Maloney

Important to remember that gold promoters like Mike Maloney have a vested interest - not easy to get a balanced view from them.

Edited by M71
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I think Mike Maloney's Hidden Secrets of Money series has done an awful lot of good http://hiddensecretsofmoney.com/

Anyone that hasn't seen this series 1 through to 5 should watch it

It very interesting and all makes Sense

I think this guy having a rant about is quite stupid

Mike has educated Millions about the corrupt system

Edited by gazzasore
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In that case, I do not think the videos make a case for gold.

They do point out the weaknesses in the fiat currency system, and I don’t think you’ll find much disagreement with this critique.

However, saying that it always ends with hyperinflation is an overgeneralisation. We have examples of economies ending that way, but there are also many currencies that hasn’t faced this destiny.

Furthermore, saying that we always revert to gold is wrong. There have been a few cases of hyperinflation in modern times, but the solution for these economies did not involve reverting to gold.

The videos are also specifically about the US dollar.

Another statement in the video is that wealth is constant. I don’t think there is a defined way to measure wealth, but if this statement is true, wouldn’t that mean that you can’t generate new wealth simply by exchanging your currency for gold?

Lastly, if we do believe that we are headed for hyperinflation and collapse of the US dollar, then the conclusion is simply, that we should not be invested in US dollars.

Seems to me there are then better options for placing our money, for example buy real estate with a rental yield. Even if the dollar does collapse, you still have the real estate, and the real estate is generating money. If the dollar does not collapse, you also still have the real estate, and it’s generating rental yield.

Whereas buying gold, if the dollar does not collapse, you have just wasted your money. If the dollar does collapse, gold would go up in price, but so would euros, pounds, yen, or the value of your real estate.

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8 Financial Experts Predict Imminent Global Economic Crash! Possibly by September!

So he quotes a few things, like:

“I wouldn’t keep significant money in banks […] most of the banks in the world are bankrupt”.

So he believes that most banks are unable to repay their debts? Well… not going above the insured amount is sound advice, but claiming that most banks are bankrupt is a little extreme and extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Another quote he gives us:

“I think the market is very brittle because of high-frequency trading, ETFs, a lot of momentum investors”.

So ETFs are making the market brittle? Can anyone elaborate on the how and why?

And another one of the quotes supporting that we’re headed for Imminent Global Economic Crash:

“Stocks are extremely expensive and will eventually revert to historical means, probably via a sharp correction of 30% to 50%”.

I assume he’s looking at the P/E ratio. Currently the companies in S&P 500 has an average P/E ratio of 20.67 and the historic mean is 15.55. So if we need to adjust prices to reach that mean value, stocks “only” need to drop 25%.

However, I suggest you actually study the companies in this index and their respective P/E ratios. Some companies are clearly very expensive, like Amazon, Adobe, Netflix, Facebook, and a bunch of health care/pharmaceutical companies, but overall it doesn’t look like everything is “extremely expensive”, look at Apple Inc., it has a P/E ratio of 13.02 with a current dividend yield of 1.8%, that’s just absurd!

Edited by WorkingTourist
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“I think the market is very brittle because of high-frequency trading, ETFs, a lot of momentum investors”.

So ETFs are making the market brittle? Can anyone elaborate on the how and why?

One thing that ETFs do is allow less sophisticated investors to invest in things that they don’t understand very well and years ago would not have invested in because it would have been too complicated. But now any clod can go long on corn, short emerging markets with 2X leverage, play the VIX, buy or short gold, etc, just by buying shares in an ETF.

Edited by suzannegoh
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ETF's

Ok With people buying ETF's Say one ETF is one ounce of Silver or Gold backed by Physical

People think it's safe

But in reality they only own a fraction of that Ounce

The Banks have leveraged each ETF Maybe 200 times no one really knows for sure

It will only take one big investor to ask for his Physical metal and it will all fall apart

With the things the way they are right now there maybe be many large investors asking all at once

All that will happen is the Banks will go belly the investors will lose all their hard earned Cash

That's why with the World economy the way it is right now Owning physical is the only way to GO

But do not store it in safety deposit Boxes or Banks

When Bail-ins happen they will take all

Bullion Vaults are different though and a safe storage place for large amounts at the moment (until Governments change the Laws)

Bury your Gold in your garden or a hidden home safe or someplace where only you know

Edited by gazzasore
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ETF's

Ok With people buying ETF's Say one ETF is one ounce of Silver or Gold backed by Physical

People think it's safe

But in reality they only own a fraction of that Ounce

The Banks have leveraged each ETF Maybe 200 times no one really knows for sure

It will only take one big investor to ask for his Physical metal and it will all fall apart

With the things the way they are right now there maybe be many large investors asking all at once

All that will happen is the Banks will go belly the investors will lose all their hard earned Cash

That's why with the World economy the way it is right now Owning physical is the only way to GO

But do not store it in safety deposit Boxes or Banks

When Bail-ins happen they will take all

Bullion Vaults are different though and a safe storage place for large amounts at the moment (until Governments change the Laws)

Bury your Gold in your garden or a hidden home safe or someplace where only you know

When you say that "banks have leveraged each ETF Maybe 200 times", what is the mechanism by which the do that? GLD claims to have gold in storage to back each share sold, and they do get audited.

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ETF's

Ok With people buying ETF's Say one ETF is one ounce of Silver or Gold backed by Physical

People think it's safe

But in reality they only own a fraction of that Ounce

The Banks have leveraged each ETF Maybe 200 times no one really knows for sure

It will only take one big investor to ask for his Physical metal and it will all fall apart

With the things the way they are right now there maybe be many large investors asking all at once

All that will happen is the Banks will go belly the investors will lose all their hard earned Cash

That's why with the World economy the way it is right now Owning physical is the only way to GO

But do not store it in safety deposit Boxes or Banks

When Bail-ins happen they will take all

Bullion Vaults are different though and a safe storage place for large amounts at the moment (until Governments change the Laws)

Bury your Gold in your garden or a hidden home safe or someplace where only you know

When you say that "banks have leveraged each ETF Maybe 200 times", what is the mechanism by which the do that? GLD claims to have gold in storage to back each share sold, and they do get audited.

Im not sure if you have noticed

The Banks do whatever they want these day

They are not held responsible for their actions Oh yes a few small fines are paid and not by the people actually committing the crimes and never any Jail time

If you watch the above Video it explains it better than I ever could "The Secret World of Gold"

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ETF's

Ok With people buying ETF's Say one ETF is one ounce of Silver or Gold backed by Physical

People think it's safe

But in reality they only own a fraction of that Ounce

The Banks have leveraged each ETF Maybe 200 times no one really knows for sure

It will only take one big investor to ask for his Physical metal and it will all fall apart

With the things the way they are right now there maybe be many large investors asking all at once

All that will happen is the Banks will go belly the investors will lose all their hard earned Cash

That's why with the World economy the way it is right now Owning physical is the only way to GO

But do not store it in safety deposit Boxes or Banks

When Bail-ins happen they will take all

Bullion Vaults are different though and a safe storage place for large amounts at the moment (until Governments change the Laws)

Bury your Gold in your garden or a hidden home safe or someplace where only you know

When you say that "banks have leveraged each ETF Maybe 200 times", what is the mechanism by which the do that? GLD claims to have gold in storage to back each share sold, and they do get audited.

Im not sure if you have noticed

The Banks do whatever they want these day

They are not held responsible for their actions Oh yes a few small fines are paid and not by the people actually committing the crimes and never any Jail time

If you watch the above Video it explains it better than I ever could "The Secret World of Gold"

I'm asking specifically about GLD, since they are the most widely held gold bullion ETF and since they are structured more-or-less like a bullion bank if they didn't really have the gold it would be a Bernie Madoff type of scam.

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In that case, I do not think the videos make a case for gold.

They do point out the weaknesses in the fiat currency system, and I don’t think you’ll find much disagreement with this critique.

However, saying that it always ends with hyperinflation is an overgeneralisation. We have examples of economies ending that way, but there are also many currencies that hasn’t faced this destiny.

Furthermore, saying that we always revert to gold is wrong. There have been a few cases of hyperinflation in modern times, but the solution for these economies did not involve reverting to gold.

The videos are also specifically about the US dollar.

Another statement in the video is that wealth is constant. I don’t think there is a defined way to measure wealth, but if this statement is true, wouldn’t that mean that you can’t generate new wealth simply by exchanging your currency for gold?

Lastly, if we do believe that we are headed for hyperinflation and collapse of the US dollar, then the conclusion is simply, that we should not be invested in US dollars.

Seems to me there are then better options for placing our money, for example buy real estate with a rental yield. Even if the dollar does collapse, you still have the real estate, and the real estate is generating money. If the dollar does not collapse, you also still have the real estate, and it’s generating rental yield.

Whereas buying gold, if the dollar does not collapse, you have just wasted your money. If the dollar does collapse, gold would go up in price, but so would euros, pounds, yen, or the value of your real estate.

" Seems to me there are then better options for placing our money, for example buy real estate with a rental yield. Even if the dollar does collapse, you still have the real estate, and the real estate is generating money. If the dollar does not collapse, you also still have the real estate, and it’s generating rental yield."

what happens if where you own the real estate the local government goes bankrupt (which has happened in a number of places already) and essential services breaks down? Secondly what happens if there is anarchy like there was recently in Ferguson or after hurricane Katrina? this situation is not gonna be fixed quickly.Do you want to be sitting in your prime real estate when there is a risk of not having access to essential services?

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In that case, I do not think the videos make a case for gold.

They do point out the weaknesses in the fiat currency system, and I don’t think you’ll find much disagreement with this critique.

However, saying that it always ends with hyperinflation is an overgeneralisation. We have examples of economies ending that way, but there are also many currencies that hasn’t faced this destiny.

Furthermore, saying that we always revert to gold is wrong. There have been a few cases of hyperinflation in modern times, but the solution for these economies did not involve reverting to gold.

The videos are also specifically about the US dollar.

Another statement in the video is that wealth is constant. I don’t think there is a defined way to measure wealth, but if this statement is true, wouldn’t that mean that you can’t generate new wealth simply by exchanging your currency for gold?

Lastly, if we do believe that we are headed for hyperinflation and collapse of the US dollar, then the conclusion is simply, that we should not be invested in US dollars.

Seems to me there are then better options for placing our money, for example buy real estate with a rental yield. Even if the dollar does collapse, you still have the real estate, and the real estate is generating money. If the dollar does not collapse, you also still have the real estate, and it’s generating rental yield.

Whereas buying gold, if the dollar does not collapse, you have just wasted your money. If the dollar does collapse, gold would go up in price, but so would euros, pounds, yen, or the value of your real estate.

" If the dollar does collapse, gold would go up in price, but so would euros, pounds, yen, or the value of your real estate."

huh ?? blink.png where did you learn economics? have you forgotten how much debt the world is swimming in?

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what happens if where you own the real estate the local government goes bankrupt (which has happened in a number of places already) and essential services breaks down? Secondly what happens if there is anarchy like there was recently in Ferguson or after hurricane Katrina? this situation is not gonna be fixed quickly.Do you want to be sitting in your prime real estate when there is a risk of not having access to essential services?

You’re right, I lack a proper contingency plan.

My net worth is about 300 million baht. Presently 5% cash (in four currencies), 25% real estate (in two countries), and the rest in equities and bonds.

I also have 60 grams of gold.

I expect to live at least another 40 years and I spend most of my time in Europe and Thailand (about 50/50).

How do you suggest I secure my wealth? Preferably with a modest return, I have been enjoying an annualised yield of about 10% for the last decade, but I am certainly willing to lower my return if the risk/volatility follows.

Looking forward to your advice.

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In that case, I do not think the videos make a case for gold.

They do point out the weaknesses in the fiat currency system, and I don’t think you’ll find much disagreement with this critique.

However, saying that it always ends with hyperinflation is an overgeneralisation. We have examples of economies ending that way, but there are also many currencies that hasn’t faced this destiny.

Furthermore, saying that we always revert to gold is wrong. There have been a few cases of hyperinflation in modern times, but the solution for these economies did not involve reverting to gold.

The videos are also specifically about the US dollar.

Another statement in the video is that wealth is constant. I don’t think there is a defined way to measure wealth, but if this statement is true, wouldn’t that mean that you can’t generate new wealth simply by exchanging your currency for gold?

Lastly, if we do believe that we are headed for hyperinflation and collapse of the US dollar, then the conclusion is simply, that we should not be invested in US dollars.

Seems to me there are then better options for placing our money, for example buy real estate with a rental yield. Even if the dollar does collapse, you still have the real estate, and the real estate is generating money. If the dollar does not collapse, you also still have the real estate, and it’s generating rental yield.

Whereas buying gold, if the dollar does not collapse, you have just wasted your money. If the dollar does collapse, gold would go up in price, but so would euros, pounds, yen, or the value of your real estate.

" Seems to me there are then better options for placing our money, for example buy real estate with a rental yield. Even if the dollar does collapse, you still have the real estate, and the real estate is generating money. If the dollar does not collapse, you also still have the real estate, and it’s generating rental yield."

what happens if where you own the real estate the local government goes bankrupt (which has happened in a number of places already) and essential services breaks down? Secondly what happens if there is anarchy like there was recently in Ferguson or after hurricane Katrina? this situation is not gonna be fixed quickly.Do you want to be sitting in your prime real estate when there is a risk of not having access to essential services?

People will be giving their houses away for Food

So maybe not such a good idea

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what happens if where you own the real estate the local government goes bankrupt (which has happened in a number of places already) and essential services breaks down? Secondly what happens if there is anarchy like there was recently in Ferguson or after hurricane Katrina? this situation is not gonna be fixed quickly.Do you want to be sitting in your prime real estate when there is a risk of not having access to essential services?

You’re right, I lack a proper contingency plan.

My net worth is about 300 million baht. Presently 5% cash (in four currencies), 25% real estate (in two countries), and the rest in equities and bonds.

I also have 60 grams of gold.

I expect to live at least another 40 years and I spend most of my time in Europe and Thailand (about 50/50).

How do you suggest I secure my wealth? Preferably with a modest return, I have been enjoying an annualised yield of about 10% for the last decade, but I am certainly willing to lower my return if the risk/volatility follows.

Looking forward to your advice.

There are people in this forum who continually spread misinformation about gold whether intentionally or otherwise although I have no idea if you are in this category. In some of your posts not only in this thread but in other related threads you have been so vehemently against gold ownership that I’m surprised that you even own 60 g.

Regarding your question, I am certainly not in the business of giving advice (and have never purported to do so) and anyway I’m quite sure you can afford a small portion of your 300 million baht to pay a professional adviser to formulate a suitable contingency plan that will suit your purposes.

Indeed, I would say based on some of the things you wrote in your dialogue with TV member billphillips as just one example in the thread entitled “stable baht investments “ that you sorely need advice particularly if you even needed ask him to provide backup data that the world economy is soon going to crash.gigglem.gif

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what happens if where you own the real estate the local government goes bankrupt (which has happened in a number of places already) and essential services breaks down? Secondly what happens if there is anarchy like there was recently in Ferguson or after hurricane Katrina? this situation is not gonna be fixed quickly.Do you want to be sitting in your prime real estate when there is a risk of not having access to essential services?

You’re right, I lack a proper contingency plan.

My net worth is about 300 million baht. Presently 5% cash (in four currencies), 25% real estate (in two countries), and the rest in equities and bonds.

I also have 60 grams of gold.

I expect to live at least another 40 years and I spend most of my time in Europe and Thailand (about 50/50).

How do you suggest I secure my wealth? Preferably with a modest return, I have been enjoying an annualised yield of about 10% for the last decade, but I am certainly willing to lower my return if the risk/volatility follows.

Looking forward to your advice.

If you are worth that Much

1, Buy farm land lots of it

2, buy Gold and Silver Lots of it keep it in a Bullion Vault and hidden on your property

3, Buy Guns and Ammo

4, Buy a years worth of Food Bury it on your Property

5, Buy Solar Power units

6, Get good hired help

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There are people in this forum who continually spread misinformation about gold whether intentionally or otherwise although I have no idea if you are in this category. In some of your posts not only in this thread but in other related threads you have been so vehemently against gold ownership that I’m surprised that you even own 60 g.

It sounds like you have been following my posts and have so far not caught me doing it, so I guess I’m in the clear.

I’m curious though about what misinformation is spread. The most questionable information I have read have been coming from those who are pro gold.

And what I am vehemently against is the weak posts that give questionable investment advice without proper explanation.

You mention my thread with billphillips yourself, this guy was telling the OP to go put all his money in gold as a “stable baht investment”. I can’t let such statements pass without asking about why.

Regarding your question, I am certainly not in the business of giving advice (and have never purported to do so)

No, you’re just in the business of telling us all how wrong we are, how the Chinese and Indians are making the smart move by buying gold, how paper gold is a ponzi scheme and implying that physical gold will go through the roof once the world catches on, how the world is headed for financial chaos, etc.

Yet, if your “news” is challenged or we want you to elaborate, the best we get is a single quote and a giggling smiley, cause you’re just the messenger.

I think I have already told you, but I actually agree with some of what you write, or I may agree 90% with it, but I have given up having a meaningful conversation with you, because there seems to be no depth to your responses.

Indeed, I would say based on some of the things you wrote in your dialogue with TV member billphillips as just one example in the thread entitled “stable baht investments “ that you sorely need advice particularly if you even needed ask him to provide backup data that the world economy is soon going to crash.gigglem.gif

If I’m really that ignorant, it should be possible to point out which of my statements are wrong and why. Seriously, I would love to learn, that’s why I often participate in these threads, not to put anyone down, but to have a meaningful exchange of ideas and views.

For God sake, I watched all the five videos that were supposed to explain why gold is a good investment!

The thread you mention with billphillips, did you actually read it? If I made wrong or inaccurate statements, why didn’t anyone reference them and point out my mistakes? Instead this billphillips character just called me a ridiculous rambling fool, yet he was actually the one contradicting himself (and being called on it) and looking at the return of gold without comparing it to other assets.

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There are people in this forum who continually spread misinformation about gold whether intentionally or otherwise although I have no idea if you are in this category. In some of your posts not only in this thread but in other related threads you have been so vehemently against gold ownership that I’m surprised that you even own 60 g.

It sounds like you have been following my posts and have so far not caught me doing it, so I guess I’m in the clear.

I’m curious though about what misinformation is spread. The most questionable information I have read have been coming from those who are pro gold.

And what I am vehemently against is the weak posts that give questionable investment advice without proper explanation.

You mention my thread with billphillips yourself, this guy was telling the OP to go put all his money in gold as a “stable baht investment”. I can’t let such statements pass without asking about why.

Regarding your question, I am certainly not in the business of giving advice (and have never purported to do so)


No, you’re just in the business of telling us all how wrong we are, how the Chinese and Indians are making the smart move by buying gold, how paper gold is a ponzi scheme and implying that physical gold will go through the roof once the world catches on, how the world is headed for financial chaos, etc.

Yet, if your “news” is challenged or we want you to elaborate, the best we get is a single quote and a giggling smiley, cause you’re just the messenger.

I think I have already told you, but I actually agree with some of what you write, or I may agree 90% with it, but I have given up having a meaningful conversation with you, because there seems to be no depth to your responses.

Indeed, I would say based on some of the things you wrote in your dialogue with TV member billphillips as just one example in the thread entitled “stable baht investments “ that you sorely need advice particularly if you even needed ask him to provide backup data that the world economy is soon going to crash.gigglem.gif


If I’m really that ignorant, it should be possible to point out which of my statements are wrong and why. Seriously, I would love to learn, that’s why I often participate in these threads, not to put anyone down, but to have a meaningful exchange of ideas and views.

For God sake, I watched all the five videos that were supposed to explain why gold is a good investment!

The thread you mention with billphillips, did you actually read it? If I made wrong or inaccurate statements, why didn’t anyone reference them and point out my mistakes? Instead this billphillips character just called me a ridiculous rambling fool, yet he was actually the one contradicting himself (and being called on it) and looking at the return of gold without comparing it to other assets.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You only got a single statement with a smiley as a response from me because I suspected you were being disingenuous and I am not engaging in meaningless debate other than to defend blatantly misleading and inaccurate statements.

For example you made this statement in another thread indeed discussing the purchase of physical gold as opposed to paper gold by the Chinese and Indians

Anyway, your statement is meaningless without knowing how much they invest and why. Given that gold is at its five year low, and most other things are not, the demand for gold from these 3.3 billion people can’t be that high

I mean really? Anyone that is not deliberately trying to be flippant or a smart arse knows that the true reason for gold prices being so low is that it is being overwhelmed by the gold futures market. But the inconvenient truth is that the Chinese and the Indians are not interested in any of that and they just want the real stuff. In fact if you do your own research you will see for yourself for each 1 ounce of physical bullion there is currently 126 ounces of so-called paper gold. When I quoted an article from Money Week saying that the gold futures market contracts exceed the amount of physical metal available for delivery by a factor of 100 you refused to accept that.

Then you started saying that you saw no gold being used in Zimbabwe even though I later posted a video from YouTube quite to the contrary.

So like you I have given up trying to have a meaningful conversation with you on this subject also because you sound very much like those who simply want to obfuscate this subject and

cheerlead the continued use of fiat currency.

Edited by Asiantravel
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In fact if you do your own research you will see for yourself for each 1 ounce of physical bullion there is currently 126 ounces of so-called paper gold. When I quoted an article from Money Week saying that the gold futures market contracts exceed the amount of physical metal available for delivery by a factor of 100 you refused to accept that.

I pointed out that the article did not have any data or references, and the author even wrote himself, that it was conjecture.

Go re-read my post.

Your reply was basically that no data is needed, because everybody knows.

What’s a little unclear to me (and probably suzannegoh, who asked the same above) is whether or not you are claiming that massive fraud is being committed? The before mentioned article did imply that gold is missing, which would be fraud, e.g. if the GLD ETF does not hold the physical gold that they claim.

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Then you started saying that you saw no gold being used in Zimbabwe even though I later posted a video from YouTube quite to the contrary.

Here’s what I said: “I did not visit any of the gold mines when I was in Zimbabwe, presumably if I had, I would also have seen this, but in other parts of the country, gold was not traded, and at the prices quoted in the video, it should be obvious why.”.

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In fact if you do your own research you will see for yourself for each 1 ounce of physical bullion there is currently 126 ounces of so-called paper gold. When I quoted an article from Money Week saying that the gold futures market contracts exceed the amount of physical metal available for delivery by a factor of 100 you refused to accept that.

I pointed out that the article did not have any data or references, and the author even wrote himself, that it was conjecture.

Go re-read my post.

Your reply was basically that no data is needed, because everybody knows.

What’s a little unclear to me (and probably suzannegoh, who asked the same above) is whether or not you are claiming that massive fraud is being committed? The before mentioned article did imply that gold is missing, which would be fraud, e.g. if the GLD ETF does not hold the physical gold that they claim.

Part of the confusion might be because the term "paper gold" isn't precisely defined. When I hear it I think of ETFs like GLD and IAU but maybe when others use the term they are additionally referring to the futures market and derivatives. Since I'm a bit conspiracy minded, I think that that confusion has been intentionally sewn by alternative media personalities who quietly have a financial interest in companies who sell bullion to retail investors. Glen Beck is in bed with a gold coin company called Goldline; Jim Sinclair with one called Monex; Alex Jones with one called Midas Resources, and all of them have demonstrated great skill in convincing Libertarians that if they don't buy gold they are a sheeple and that "paper gold" is illegitimate. Gold shoots up to $1900? That proves the thesis, you should buy more. Gold goes back down to $1000? It's just manipulation, you should buy more. But whatever you do, don't buy "paper gold" because we can't make a commission on it.

Edited by suzannegoh
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