Post-coup Thailand sees economic slump putting pressure on govt

[marcusd]

One may just about wish the previous regime was still in power so we can see the country go down the economic drain, but then one would be a sadist for thinking that and would not be putting the country first.

At least the current govt will be able to guide the economic ship through the stormy waters. Australia is actually in those stormy waters as well. In fact the $aus slide is more pronounced than the baht and most economic indicators in Australia are worse than Thailand. SO in fact Prayut has shielded the country from the full brunt of this global downturn which needs to be acknowledged.

Just think had he not stepped in the economy would have collapsed long ago.

Fact - $aus slide is more pronounced than the bah slide against the usd

Fact - economic indicators in Australia are on a % bases sliding more than Thailand indicators

Just think had he not stepped in the economy would have collapsed long ago.

Facts - All economic indicators showed the country was sliding into economic collapse before May 22nd, 2014.

All facts and all I receive in reply instead of intelligent rebuttals proving me wrong is condescension.

It warms my heart because when the poster is attacked instead of the post I win the argument.

While you are correct about the AUD, the 'slide' in its value is of major economic value to Australia and the devaluation has been a defacto policy of the past 2 govts as well as the gov of the reserve bank. It is now approaching what most people believe to be fair value relative to the USD.

In respect of % decline in other indicators you are COMPLETELY WRONG: growth in Australia has flattened by not in spiral seen in Thailand ( eg manufacturing down 8% year on year....a dramatic contraction).. Thailand is facing a perfect storm and were it not for the tourism sector the pain for communities and families would be intense. Not to worry ....Suthep and the loony beer heiress are coming to the rescue .

Haven't seen you for a while! And I must concur. Australia has geared this way and the 20 year average for the AUD to USD has been about 67. The USD to THB over the same 20 years has been about 28. Thai baht is overvalued and that is good for repaying interest on foreign loans but bad for the ordinary folk here who do not get government pensions and social security - but hell - Who care or gives a damn. And I thought I would never think massive corruption by one family would be better than sinking a country by another family - basically admitting I was wrong about better to keep yinny than ditch her. Jury still out on that one....

[gandalf12]

So, is Thailand is the only country in the world suffering from an economic slowdown?

Everything is wonderful in Greece, Portugal, Spain, the rest of the EU? The USA, China, South America, Russia, the Middle East countries, the whole of Africa are just roaring ahead with no problems at all?

Only poor little old Thailand is in trouble and only because of one person, the PM.

If you believe that I am sorry for you..

The world is going through problems and some are weathering better than others.

No but considering This is Thai visa the article is about Thailand, where we have all chosen to spend our lives discussing the rest of the worlds piss poor economy is a moot point.

Do you personally believe the reports of economists globally, who have track records backing their SME status, with regards to the Thai economy or do you believe the Junta members who are always bigging themselves up, who lack the credentials to even be considered SME's?

The bottom line, the wheels are wobbling big time, and it's the current establishment at the helm, and they know best apparently, forget the shins, it's the Juntas train set and they need to fix the broken parts, as they're the ones being judged!!

The rest of the world is discussed as it affects each and every country to some extent. Thailand is not going to be immune from reduced growth when the rest of the world is struggling. It is the knock on effect which is why the "world" was brught into the topic.

[Thai at Heart]

One may just about wish the previous regime was still in power so we can see the country go down the economic drain, but then one would be a sadist for thinking that and would not be putting the country first.

At least the current govt will be able to guide the economic ship through the stormy waters. Australia is actually in those stormy waters as well. In fact the $aus slide is more pronounced than the baht and most economic indicators in Australia are worse than Thailand. SO in fact Prayut has shielded the country from the full brunt of this global downturn which needs to be acknowledged.

Just think had he not stepped in the economy would have collapsed long ago.

So, is Thailand is the only country in the world suffering from an economic slowdown?

Everything is wonderful in Greece, Portugal, Spain, the rest of the EU? The USA, China, South America, Russia, the Middle East countries, the whole of Africa are just roaring ahead with no problems at all?

Only poor little old Thailand is in trouble and only because of one person, the PM.

If you believe that I am sorry for you..

The world is going through problems and some are weathering better than others.

Did neither of you read this part, or did you not understand it:

"The finance ministry cut its forecast for GDP growth this year to 3 percent, which could be the slowest among developing nations in Asia."

I will say for the umpteenth time FDI has been falling in Thailand for the last 4 years. Once Thailand is not the the premier place in south East Asia to invest gdp growth will slow. Just look at exports now in Thailand.

They are in real trouble now with the coup govt in power for the next year or so. Companies will not commit particularly because they cannot predict where Thailand is going.

Times will continue to get tougher unless they free up the investment rules even more to make Thailand definitely more attractive than its neighbours.

And then of course, they might still get their factories inundated.... New investment decisions for factories get made maybe once every 5 years. Thailand is losing its share of this pie and it is starting to hurt.

[MockingJay]

Well, that was to be expected, no? What else should happen if a country is run by a military junta? A miracle, sudden bursts of empathy, a gold winged fairy visiting Mr. P in his sleep teaching him about world economics, love and how to make people happy?

I, for myself, have given up hope. You can't run a country by just implementing ever new suppressive laws, restrictions and NONOs, while not listening to the people, indulging in a self-centered, arrogant "I am the greatest, don't tell me what to do" delusional phantasy... and by leaving the most pressing problems virtually ignored. It all will backfire and this time, due to the fact that the military is at the helm, the Thai struggle to remove their shackles will most likely end in bloody turmoil, respectively civil war.

I talk to the Thai men on the street every day, taxi drivers, construction workers, tour guides, business owners, noodle shop vendors... It would be a valuable lecture for Mr. P to hear what they have to say. These people are angry, pi$$Ed and they simply have had it! All of them (just like me) were happy at the beginning to see that the coup stopped this ongoing red shirt vs yellow shirt kerfuffle, getting this wannabe nazi Suthep off stage, but soon to wake up to the fact that the counrty now is under the iron fist of a delusional drill sergeant who thinks that simply applying pressure will heal any wound... He's dead wrong and as I see it, he will have a very hard landing after his sudden rise to the stars.

[Just1Voice]

My Thai wife and I have an extensive list of Thai friends, both well to do and poor, red and yellow, and from their comments, "happiness" does not play into their lives. They admit that things were bad before, but at least there was a chance, via elections, to make them better, or at least try. Now they see no hope. They see a dictator getting stronger by the day, crushing, in whatever way he can, any and all opposition to his "rule of law". What may surprise him is that the common man "red" and "yellow" are actually agreeing on things, and the main thing they agree on is - The General, and Suthep - have to go. End of story.

[Srikcir]

"the government is under pressure to do something,”

LEAVE

No one is keeping you in office.

[ikke]

One may just about wish the previous regime was still in power so we can see the country go down the economic drain, but then one would be a sadist for thinking that and would not be putting the country first.

At least the current govt will be able to guide the economic ship through the stormy waters. Australia is actually in those stormy waters as well. In fact the $aus slide is more pronounced than the baht and most economic indicators in Australia are worse than Thailand. SO in fact Prayut has shielded the country from the full brunt of this global downturn which needs to be acknowledged.

Just think had he not stepped in the economy would have collapsed long ago.

You are clearly not familiar with economics.

I even think you never made it higher than middle school,

The Junta took the economy down the drain... but you are a denier and a junta lover, so you think it is going the right way here....you should know better, but I don't blame you.

[laocowboy2]

One may just about wish the previous regime was still in power so we can see the country go down the economic drain, but then one would be a sadist for thinking that and would not be putting the country first.

At least the current govt will be able to guide the economic ship through the stormy waters. Australia is actually in those stormy waters as well. In fact the $aus slide is more pronounced than the baht and most economic indicators in Australia are worse than Thailand. SO in fact Prayut has shielded the country from the full brunt of this global downturn which needs to be acknowledged.

Just think had he not stepped in the economy would have collapsed long ago.

You crack me up.

If anyone is feeling a little jaded they only have to read your posts and I am sure they would manage at least a smile.

I had lunch with a retired Thai friend last Friday; he used to be a very senior banker. He made an interesting point about the current cabinet.

As the General got to choose (as any PM does - like in the UK) who was in his cabinet, he chose people he knew and trusted. Unfortunately he realized very early on that he didn't actually know many civilians - and did not trust many of the few that he did know. So trust triumphed experience or qualifications. Those chosen were apparently (my friend's view - I do not know enough to comment meaningfully) competent professionals in their past military administrative roles. However their knowledge of non-military matters was limited at best.

Which is how we got to where we are. They fully realize that there are problems (not really of their creating) but are generally at a loss as to what to do.

[Red Queen]

Is the economic slump in Thailand the reason they reversed their decision to buy 2 submarine's from China?

Thailand is the only country without submarines in SEA especially that it's military is second only to that of Indonesia. Thailand had submarines before, and should have now. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-n_h6YPYouOA/VRIzBwjGb-I/AAAAAAAAGGs/K0HWSkpi28E/s1600/Thai%2Bcommissioning.jpg

I think that is almost 100% BS. The advent of ASEAN and the AEC, mean that there are no credible military threats against Thailand, except for (possibly) militant Islamism and China. The second more plausible than the first. A whole fleet of modern submarines would not help in either instance. And that's assuming Thais can be taught not to bump into things, like the ocean floor or large cliffs. We've all seen how successful that was with the Thai Air Force.

Thailand buying submarines is an exercise in self-aggrandisement, and that alone. That ought to be enough for the Thai people to clean out the military Augean stables, but I doubt it will be, these people will sleep-walk themselves into their own oblivion.

[MockingJay]

One may just about wish the previous regime was still in power so we can see the country go down the economic drain, but then one would be a sadist for thinking that and would not be putting the country first.

At least the current govt will be able to guide the economic ship through the stormy waters. Australia is actually in those stormy waters as well. In fact the $aus slide is more pronounced than the baht and most economic indicators in Australia are worse than Thailand. SO in fact Prayut has shielded the country from the full brunt of this global downturn which needs to be acknowledged.

Just think had he not stepped in the economy would have collapsed long ago.

You crack me up.

If anyone is feeling a little jaded they only have to read your posts and I am sure they would manage at least a smile.

I had lunch with a retired Thai friend last Friday; he used to be a very senior banker. He made an interesting point about the current cabinet.

As the General got to choose (as any PM does - like in the UK) who was in his cabinet, he chose people he knew and trusted. Unfortunately he realized very early on that he didn't actually know many civilians - and did not trust many of the few that he did know. So trust triumphed experience or qualifications. Those chosen were apparently (my friend's view - I do not know enough to comment meaningfully) competent professionals in their past military administrative roles. However their knowledge of non-military matters was limited at best.

Which is how we got to where we are. They fully realize that there are problems (not really of their creating) but are generally at a loss as to what to do.

Well, if "they" really are at loss of what to do, Mr. Iron Fist should perhaps start to listen to people, their true opinions and ideas for solutions without threatening each and everyone who dares to open his mouth in opposition. This retired army guy, in his delusional ivory tower, is bound to fail if he won't stop talking and starts to listen!

If I were him, I'd put out a list of open government positions, including a good percentage of seats for common people from any walks of life, let each and every one of the applicants run a 2 minute speech, run an iq test with them, then ask them questions and come up with a point system to filter out the truly intelligent and inventive ones.

Then Mr. Perfect should admit that mistaks were made and that a new route has been chosen now, where everyone is required to work together efficiently and creatively. I'd also add a good percentage of foreigners to the mix, poeple who had businesses and/or a Thai/foreign family here for at least 10 years and who have a general understanding of Thailand, can speak, read and write Thai, but who have been educated and were raised abroad so they can see the wider picture, think outside the box.

They could express how potential foreign investors feel if they find a business investment environment as is. They could tell the PM what changes need to be made to the existing business laws to not need to "lure" foreign investors in but instead invite them in with ways to do business here legally without the laughable 49/51 percentage rule, etc... Same goes for private properties.

The deep south needs to be sorted out also, urgently, before everything there is lost. Also here, it won't work by applying force. Here as well - he needs to shut up and listen. Drugs, youth gangs, etc. need to be sorted out and taken seriously.

It all could work, but it won't with a blind, deaf, arrogant and ignorant ruler at the helm who thinks that he alone has the answer to all problems. Only honorable people admit mistakes and ask for help when they need it. So let's see what a kind of man Mr. Prayut really is...

Edited July 31, 2015 by MockingJay