Obama's Iran deal may well survive on Capitol Hill

[webfact]

Obama's Iran deal may well survive on Capitol Hill
By ERICA WERNER and DAVID PORTER

WASHINGTON (AP) — The fiercely contested Iran nuclear deal will likely survive in Congress despite unified GOP opposition and some Democratic defections, the top Senate Republican says. That would mean a major foreign policy win for President Barack Obama.

Obama has "a great likelihood of success," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said in his home state of Kentucky this week — giving public voice to what other Republicans have acknowledged in private. "I hope we can defeat it, but the procedure is obviously stacked in the president's favor."

Indeed, even as Congress' August recess has hardened Republicans' opposition to the deal on Capitol Hill and on the presidential campaign trail, reality is setting in: They probably can't stop it. Significant Democratic defections from Obama would be required in both chambers of Congress, and even with opponents mounting a strenuous lobbying campaign in key congressional districts, such a prospect looks remote.

That means that even with Obama firmly in lame-duck territory and his GOP opponents in control of Congress and aiming for the White House, the president is on the verge of a legacy-defining victory on a pact that he and his supporters say will keep the world safe from Iran's nuclear ambitions. Opponents continue to warn furiously that the result could be just the opposite: to strengthen Tehran's hand, in an existential threat to Israel and the world.

On Tuesday a second Democratic senator, Bob Menendez of New Jersey, did announce his opposition to the deal, joining Chuck Schumer of New York.

"The agreement that has been reached failed to achieve the one thing it set out to achieve — it failed to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state at a time of its choosing," Menendez said in a blistering speech at the Seton Hall School of Diplomacy and International Relations in East Orange, New Jersey. "In fact, it authorizes and supports the very road map Iran will need to arrive at its target."

Menendez argued the deal should be sent back and negotiations should continue. But his opposition was expected, and, underscoring slim prospects for his side, he stopped short of predicting opponents would prevail.

The agreement would require Iran to dismantle most of its nuclear program for at least a decade in exchange for billions of dollars in relief from international sanctions. But the Israeli government and critics in the U.S. argue that it would not stop Iran from building a bomb.

Bipartisan legislation does give Congress the right to review the deal, and there will be a vote by Sept. 17. That's likely to go in favor of disapproval, but Obama would then veto the legislation and opponents would need to muster two-thirds majorities in both chambers to override him.

Obama needs support from 34 of the 46 members of the Democratic caucus to sustain a veto, and 23 have already announced they are backing him. Sens. Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island issued a joint release in support of the president Tuesday just hours after Menendez declared his opposition. In the House, 146 of the 188 Democrats are necessary to sustain a veto, and more than 50 have expressed their support for the accord, compared to 10 opponents.

From his vacation home on Martha's Vineyard, Obama has been lobbying the undecided. The White House said Obama has talked individually or in small groups with nearly 100 lawmakers since the deal was announced last month, with Cabinet and senior administration officials reaching out to dozens more.

"We remain confident that ultimately a majority of Democrats in both the House and the Senate will support the deal, and if necessary, sustain the president's veto," White House spokesman Eric Schultz said Tuesday.

Liberal and progressive groups are joining in the lobbying, while opponents on the right including the American Israel Public Affairs Committee are spending millions to try to build opposition.

Any chance of the White House winning GOP support for the deal in Congress evaporated in recent days as Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, who had been seen as a possible "yes" vote, declared he would vote "no." Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, announced his opposition in an opinion piece Tuesday in the Washington Post, and House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio has been criticizing the deal as he travels the country by bus raising money for Republican lawmakers.

But the deal has picked up scattered support from Republicans outside of Congress, including former Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana, who chaired the Foreign Relations Committee, and former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. Predictions that the issue would dominate Congress' August recess have yet to come true, and Obama still finds himself in a strong position to prevail.

"It's not easy to override a president's veto when the president is so committed to getting this done, and really the White House is fighting very hard for every vote in Congress," former Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Lieberman, who is helping marshal opposition, said in an interview Tuesday. But Lieberman said there were still enough undecided votes to get to two-thirds, and "we're working hard on them."
___

Porter reported from East Orange, New Jersey. Associated Press writer Darlene Superville contributed from Edgartown, Massachusetts.

-- (c) Associated Press 2015-08-19

[ezzra]

That maybe very well so, but you, Mr Obama, will be remembered as the worst president of all time,

one for disappointing and failing millions voters of your own race and creed, who thought that some

how you, as a black president will make a different in their life, and the second, for thinking that Iran

can be trusted even for one moment where all the indicators are pointing the other way,

what will you say Mr President when Iran will have a nuclear device in a few years mounted on a

Russian ICBM? Ooops?

[johna]

The power AIPAC has over the US congress is truly amazing, here we have a really great deal that will keep Iran's nuclear program's monitored, and Israel wants to scupper the deal. Israel will then claim Iran is building a nuclear weapon and use that as an excuse to urge America to bomb Iran.

[Ulysses G.]

A very stupid deal is likely to pass merely for the presidents vanity and because of partisan politics. We live in sad times.

[godden]

BOOOM.

[Berkshire]

That maybe very well so, but you, Mr Obama, will be remembered as the worst president of all time,

one for disappointing and failing millions voters of your own race and creed, who thought that some

how you, as a black president will make a different in their life, and the second, for thinking that Iran

can be trusted even for one moment where all the indicators are pointing the other way,

what will you say Mr President when Iran will have a nuclear device in a few years mounted on a

Russian ICBM? Ooops?

Disagree. I believe that history will remember President Obama fondly. Future generations will see the significant accomplishments during his term(s), including Obamacare, this Iran deal, Cuba, gay-marriage/gay rights, taking out Bin Laden, bringing the US economy back from the brink, etc. All of this despite relentless partisan opposition from Congress. The non-stop criticisms from the far right and Fox News will not stand the test of time. But Obama's legacy will.

[Steely Dan]

Obama will be saved from an obituary as the architect of a nuclear war by Israel and the GCC. They will take out the Iranian nuclear project and the regime too to prevent having to repeatedly mow the grass. The progressive left will complain and fume impotently whilst in private many world leaders will say thank God for Israel.

[Chicog]

I love listening to the doom and gloom merchants for a good laugh.

But the OP is encouraging.

[arjunadawn]

Obama will be saved from an obituary as the architect of a nuclear war by Israel and the GCC. They will take out the Iranian nuclear project and the regime too to prevent having to repeatedly mow the grass. The progressive left will complain and fume impotently whilst in private many world leaders will say thank God for Israel.

I do not like reading the posts of doom and gloom yet they are sadly realistic. This post above is curious because this may well be the very means Obama fails and succeeds with this absurd product called a deal- the fulcrum of which, the side deals, are not even public. I have always maintained this deal's failings will be obvious sooner rather than later because there actually is no deal of merit, nothing changed, nothing is conceded, all has been surrendered. With this absent framework the Iranians will tip their hat early on that there is no deal from their perspective. Oh, right... they have.

[elgordo38]

A very stupid deal is likely to pass merely for the presidents vanity and because of partisan politics. We live in sad times.

Newsflash Obama is looking to raise a BILLION dollars to build his Taj Mahal presidential legacy library. Anyone here want to contribute? Who said America was broke? Talk about an ego!! Wow.

[h90]

That maybe very well so, but you, Mr Obama, will be remembered as the worst president of all time,

one for disappointing and failing millions voters of your own race and creed, who thought that some

how you, as a black president will make a different in their life, and the second, for thinking that Iran

can be trusted even for one moment where all the indicators are pointing the other way,

what will you say Mr President when Iran will have a nuclear device in a few years mounted on a

Russian ICBM? Ooops?

Well the first term Mr. Obama disappointed.....But the Americans elected him a second time so they must be satisfied with his performance, as strange as this seems for a non American.

I doubt the Russian will give a ICBM to Iran. So maximum Iran can do is short range. No danger for USA but will bring peace to that area.

[Publicus]

The kamikaze right with its teabaggers driving the Washington Republicans actually thought they could deny a two-term POTUS his inevitable legacy. The sky pilots of the far right have only managed to bounce their planes off the hull of the unsinkable Barack Obama, 44th POTUS.

All that the hard driving warmongers on the right have left now is their desperate hope war breaks out anyway. UN sponsorship of the P5+1 negotiators and the Agreement really kills 'em besides over there on the fringes of normal society.

The right looks to lose yet another one.

[h90]

The kamikaze right with its teabaggers driving the Washington Republicans actually thought they could deny a two-term POTUS his inevitable legacy. The sky pilots of the far right have only managed to bounce their planes off the hull of the unsinkable Barack Obama, 44th POTUS.

All that the hard driving warmongers on the right have left now is their desperate hope war breaks out anyway. UN sponsorship of the P5+1 negotiators and the Agreement really kills 'em besides over there on the fringes of normal society.

The right looks to lose yet another one.

Well Obama is not doing less wars.....He actually increased the drone strikes which are terrorist actions in my opinion.

[Chicog]

The kamikaze right with its teabaggers driving the Washington Republicans actually thought they could deny a two-term POTUS his inevitable legacy. The sky pilots of the far right have only managed to bounce their planes off the hull of the unsinkable Barack Obama, 44th POTUS.

All that the hard driving warmongers on the right have left now is their desperate hope war breaks out anyway. UN sponsorship of the P5+1 negotiators and the Agreement really kills 'em besides over there on the fringes of normal society.

The right looks to lose yet another one.

Well Obama is not doing less wars.....He actually increased the drone strikes which are terrorist actions in my opinion.

But they are more surgical than carpet bombing and less dangerous to US service men and women than pointless incursions into hostile territory swarming with suicide bombers and other assorted nutcases.

Best of a bad bunch really.

[JingerBen]

The kamikaze right with its teabaggers driving the Washington Republicans actually thought they could deny a two-term POTUS his inevitable legacy. The sky pilots of the far right have only managed to bounce their planes off the hull of the unsinkable Barack Obama, 44th POTUS.

All that the hard driving warmongers on the right have left now is their desperate hope war breaks out anyway. UN sponsorship of the P5+1 negotiators and the Agreement really kills 'em besides over there on the fringes of normal society.

The right looks to lose yet another one.

Well Obama is not doing less wars.....He actually increased the drone strikes which are terrorist actions in my opinion.

But they are more surgical than carpet bombing and less dangerous to US service men and women than pointless incursions into hostile territory swarming with suicide bombers and other assorted nutcases.

Best of a bad bunch really.

Good evaluation.

Drone warfare is likely to be the preferred way to keep the neighbourhood safe for Israel in the foreseeable future.

[Chicog]

Israel don't have much to worry about while their neighbours are busy shooting each other.

[up-country_sinclair]

The deal will likely not be stopped by the Israeli Firsters in Washington, because (fortunately) many of our elected representatives are still loyal Americans and they are not as easily deceived by the double tongued as they once were.

But the Israelis can never be trusted, so those who put America's strategic interests first should remain watchful and vigilant.

[hawker9000]

Oh, it won't take Iran long to renege. I'll bet it happens even before the election; 'should be fun to watch the media (not to mention some TV members...) dancing with the stars trying to obfuscate & cover it up.

[Steely Dan]

Those voting for the deal are now also voting for secret side deals Obama made with the P5 Countries assuring companies who did business with Iran would not face U.S sanctions. So much for 'snap-back'.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/point/259858/obama-sent-secret-letters-foreign-governments-daniel-greenfield#

The Obama administration is purportedly promising the foreign governments that if Iran violates the parameters of a recently inked nuclear accord, European companies will not be penalized, according to the secret letters.

Congress became aware of these promises during closed-door briefings with the Obama administration and through documents filed by the administration under a law requiring full disclosure of all information pertaining to the accord.

“We therefore request the Administration to publicly release these letters, which are not classified, so that the full extent of the Administration’s non-public assurances to European and Chinese governments can be discussed openly by Congress and analyzed by impartial outside experts,” they write.

[Jingthing]

The power AIPAC has over the US congress is truly amazing, here we have a really great deal that will keep Iran's nuclear program's monitored, and Israel wants to scupper the deal. Israel will then claim Iran is building a nuclear weapon and use that as an excuse to urge America to bomb Iran.

Obsessive Israel demonization meets lack of logic.

IF AIPAC was as powerful as you assert, surely they could get the votes kill this deal, but most agree (including me) that the votes to override Obama won't be there.

It is true the government of Israel is against the deal. There are good reasons for their stance which aren't only about nukes but also about the billions of dollars that will be flowing into Iran which it is well known (and even acknowledged by Obama) that some of those funds will be flowing to Iran's military proxies actively working towards eliminating the state of Israel.

[Publicus]

Almost two-thirds of the US House and almost two-thirds of the US Senate are a lot of members of Congress, considering there are 435 voting members of the House and 100 in the Senate.

That's a lot of top of the line human capital fully paid for and all shined up.

It is however just not enough by mutual agreement between the Republican leaders of the Congress and the president. If the opponents of the Agreement in Congress had been serious, they would have gone ahead to kill the thing one way or another. The vote requirements as they were agreed gave the advantage to the president and the Agreement.

It is instead Prez Obama's Agreement to lose and he's not going to lose it. Probably never was going to lose it.

[Jingthing]

So according to the obsessive Israel demonizers, every vote in the U.S. congress against the Obama deal is because of being bought off by Jews. There are rational reasons to be for or against this deal and also irrational ones. But the classic Judeophobia being whipped up to simplistically explain the legitimate opposition to the deal in the U.S. is simply hateful and disgusting. Also the demonization of American Jews who happen to be against the deal (the majority are for it) is another symptom of this toxicity. American Jews aren't allowed to have opinions without being labelled traitors? Why is that? Is an American Mormon with an anti-deal opinion a traitor as well?

Edited August 21, 2015 by Jingthing

[Thakkar]

For those who aren't ideologically, or for whatever other reason opposed to everything Obama related, and are interested in really understanding the P5+1 Iran Nuclear Agreement, may I recommend the following article:

http://www.vox.com/2015/8/19/9176415/iran-deal-inspections-24-days

There may well be legitimate reasons for opposing the deal. But whether you support or oppose it, argue from facts, because this is too important an issue to be used for partisan point-scoring.

T

[up-country_sinclair]

So according to the obsessive Israel demonizers, every vote in the U.S. congress against the Obama deal is because of being bought off by Jews. There are rational reasons to be for or against this deal and also irrational ones. But the classic Judeophobia being whipped up to simplistically explain the legitimate opposition to the deal in the U.S. is simply hateful and disgusting. Also the demonization of American Jews who happen to be against the deal (the majority are for it) is another symptom of this toxicity. American Jews aren't allowed to have opinions without being labelled traitors? Why is that? Is an American Mormon with an anti-deal opinion a traitor as well?

First of all, you typed the word "Jews" four times in your post, and that's the only four times the word has been posted in this thread. Interesting, isn't it?

Anyway back on topic, opposition to AIPAC and the traitorous Israel First agenda is not connected to Judaism. Even though perpetual victims (you know who you are) deliberately distort words to make the most tenuous of connections, genuine Americans can see through this Janus-faced duplicity.

And that is partly why this deal will go forward. The American public and many of its elected representatives realize that the tail can no longer be allowed to wag the dog.

Edited August 21, 2015 by up-country_sinclair

[Publicus]

Cyrus the Great and all the rest of the guyz named Cyrus kept attacking west because it was essentially ethnic, also tribal as well as regional/geostrategic, so the Greeks kept kicking their back and with the Macedonian Alexander the Great right on across Persia and through it.

This Agreement is tribal, ethnic, geostrategic, and most importantly, hopelessly entangled in religion in the region of the world where the theistic religions originated and continue to slaughter one another in the name of god.

While the United States has had its own and ongoing domestic religious entanglements, they are ultimately settled by Constitutional means and ends. And the USA has from its founding consciously avoided involvement in religious wars per se. At least until recent decades, and Prez Obama campaigned successfully on getting the US out of the business of religious wars in the Middle East.

Since 1979 the ayatollahs have been firing vile language toward Israel and the United States too. The mullahs have executed all of this blowhard rhetoric however without a single nuclear bomb or weapon in their possession or access. The ayatollahs have now signed an Agreement that makes it extraordinarily complex and difficult for them to make even a few nuclear weapons without getting found out virtually immediately.

In Israel the far right has been in government for an extended time and with its standing and ready nuclear arsenal wants to strike first against Iran by conventional means, or so we would hope would be the worst case scenario. The right in Israel is fierce about it and has had a nuclear arsenal for a very long time.

The blowhard ayatollahs know any use by them of a nuclear weapon or a handful of 'em would result in the United States vaporizing them with only a tiny fraction of the nuclear arsenal it possesses. Nothing in all of this is good yet it needs to be said the fanatics in the mix are the ones with the standing arsenal and the rightwing mindset of inflicting the first blows, all of it yet in the absurd name of survival.

[hawker9000]

Cyrus the Great and all the rest of the guyz named Cyrus kept attacking west because it was essentially ethnic, also tribal as well as regional/geostrategic, so the Greeks kept kicking their back and with the Macedonian Alexander the Great right on across Persia and through it.

This Agreement is tribal, ethnic, geostrategic, and most importantly, hopelessly entangled in religion in the region of the world where the theistic religions originated and continue to slaughter one another in the name of god.

While the United States has had its own and ongoing domestic religious entanglements, they are ultimately settled by Constitutional means and ends. And the USA has from its founding consciously avoided involvement in religious wars per se. At least until recent decades, and Prez Obama campaigned successfully on getting the US out of the business of religious wars in the Middle East.

Since 1979 the ayatollahs have been firing vile language toward Israel and the United States too. The mullahs have executed all of this blowhard rhetoric however without a single nuclear bomb or weapon in their possession or access. The ayatollahs have now signed an Agreement that makes it extraordinarily complex and difficult for them to make even a few nuclear weapons without getting found out virtually immediately.

In Israel the far right has been in government for an extended time and with its standing and ready nuclear arsenal wants to strike first against Iran by conventional means, or so we would hope would be the worst case scenario. The right in Israel is fierce about it and has had a nuclear arsenal for a very long time.

The blowhard ayatollahs know any use by them of a nuclear weapon or a handful of 'em would result in the United States vaporizing them with only a tiny fraction of the nuclear arsenal it possesses. Nothing in all of this is good yet it needs to be said the fanatics in the mix are the ones with the standing arsenal and the rightwing mindset of inflicting the first blows, all of it yet in the absurd name of survival.

"The blowhard ayatollahs know any use by them of a nuclear weapon or a handful of 'em would result in the United States vaporizing them"

Nope. Not this president. Not a chance. Some red-line drawing and some "really serious sanctions" (yeah, like really really really serious! LOL); that's it. And Israel definitely gets that (as does Iran by now). I'm guessing Israel is no doubt far more interested in actually surviving than being memorialized after the fact (again)...

[Publicus]

Cyrus the Great and all the rest of the guyz named Cyrus kept attacking west because it was essentially ethnic, also tribal as well as regional/geostrategic, so the Greeks kept kicking their back and with the Macedonian Alexander the Great right on across Persia and through it.

This Agreement is tribal, ethnic, geostrategic, and most importantly, hopelessly entangled in religion in the region of the world where the theistic religions originated and continue to slaughter one another in the name of god.

While the United States has had its own and ongoing domestic religious entanglements, they are ultimately settled by Constitutional means and ends. And the USA has from its founding consciously avoided involvement in religious wars per se. At least until recent decades, and Prez Obama campaigned successfully on getting the US out of the business of religious wars in the Middle East.

Since 1979 the ayatollahs have been firing vile language toward Israel and the United States too. The mullahs have executed all of this blowhard rhetoric however without a single nuclear bomb or weapon in their possession or access. The ayatollahs have now signed an Agreement that makes it extraordinarily complex and difficult for them to make even a few nuclear weapons without getting found out virtually immediately.

In Israel the far right has been in government for an extended time and with its standing and ready nuclear arsenal wants to strike first against Iran by conventional means, or so we would hope would be the worst case scenario. The right in Israel is fierce about it and has had a nuclear arsenal for a very long time.

The blowhard ayatollahs know any use by them of a nuclear weapon or a handful of 'em would result in the United States vaporizing them with only a tiny fraction of the nuclear arsenal it possesses. Nothing in all of this is good yet it needs to be said the fanatics in the mix are the ones with the standing arsenal and the rightwing mindset of inflicting the first blows, all of it yet in the absurd name of survival.

"The blowhard ayatollahs know any use by them of a nuclear weapon or a handful of 'em would result in the United States vaporizing them"

Nope. Not this president. Not a chance. Some red-line drawing and some "really serious sanctions" (yeah, like really really really serious! LOL); that's it. And Israel definitely gets that (as does Iran by now). I'm guessing Israel is no doubt far more interested in actually surviving than being memorialized after the fact (again)...

The right is blinded by its absolute dogma and ideology against Prez Obama.

The right begins every statement against Prez Obama by misstating the fact and reality of a given situation. That in turn self-enables the right to create every time its own concocted reality. The gross error in this particular instance is to wrongly and wrongfully assert Prez Obama and his policies must necessarily and do indeed cause the destruction and the demise of Israel. The right thereby goes OTT almost always and the post is no exception to the right's 'work' in these respects.

[Ulysses G.]

The right is blinded by its absolute dogma and ideology against Prez Obama.

The right are not blind. They see this useless deal for exactly what it is. A giant bonus for Iran for lying their heads off.

In 2012, the president declared that “the deal we’ll accept” with Iran “is that they end their nuclear program” and “abide by the U.N. resolutions that have been in place.” Neither one happened.

The resolutions called for Iran to suspend the enrichment of uranium. However under the agreement, enrichment will continue with 5,000 centrifuges for a decade, and all restraints on it will end in 15 years.

None of Iran’s nuclear facilities will be closed. Not one of the country’s 19,000 centrifuges will be dismantled. Tehran’s existing stockpile of enriched uranium will be “reduced” but not shipped out of the country. The truth is that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure will remain intact. When the accord lapses, the Islamic republic will instantly become a threshold nuclear state. Facts are Facts,

[Publicus]

The right's crystal ball goes 15 years into the future which puts the right OTT again as always.

[Ulysses G.]

On;y if Iran actually honors the crazy deal, which they are not known for. They have lied over and over again. They could have nukes much sooner.