House Prices will they go up or down in current economic climate?

[stament]

Just wondered what people expect to happen in the housing market with the thai and world economy the way it is?

I'm not talking the high end market just the normal market and if I can be more specific then Chiang Mai as I have a particular interest there.

Thanks

[worgeordie]

In the short term prices will be stable,Thais are very reluctant to

drop the price,the Banks are not so aggressive on foreclosures

as they are in the West,they maybe a few bargains,but they will

be ,either in a poor area,and,or not in good condition.

I have lived here 30 years and the prices have only gone up,and

especially in last few years,We were able to find some bargains

last time the bubble burst,but even then the market did not crash,

and in a few years rebounded,

Buying property in Thailand is the same anywhere in the World,

the most important been, location,location.location,I have a friend

who is in the process of building a house 18 Kms outside Chiang Mai,

in an old rice field,he has spent 15 M Bht,so far and is quiet away from

finishing it,access is very poor to his land,maybe he likes to live a quite

life there, but I don't think he would ever find a buyer if he wanted to sell.

When buying ,you also need to think about selling,could I sell it fairly quickly

if anything went tits up,good luck,hope you find a bargain.

regards worgeordie

[quandow]

Ditto, worgeordie. Thailand is no longer a cheap place to live, and for reasons I won't put here for fear of Lèse majesté, I wouldn't recommend purchasing property in Thailand right now.

[Naroge]

Except for the odd "fire sale" prices never go down. Sellers ride out the tough times by keeping the old price unchanged.

[MaeJoMTB]

In the short term prices will be stable,Thais are very reluctant to

drop the price,the Banks are not so aggressive on foreclosures

as they are in the West,they maybe a few bargains,but they will

be ,either in a poor area,and,or not in good condition.

SCB phone us up every month the day before the payment is due.

From what I have seen they start coming round after two missed payments and threaten repossession.

Then the courts take up to two years to throw you out.

Way more aggressive than the UK.

My moobaan near MaeJo is only two years old, and already 3 or 4 repossessed houses.

The fly in the ointment,

Banks aren't allowed to resell for less than the outstanding loan, and as that's usually 90% of the original value, not much room for a bargain.

Edited August 24, 2015 by MaeJoMTB

[little mary sunshine]

Houses. Down a little (oversupply)

Decent condos. Down, down,down. Just so overbuilt

Supply and demand....just to many

Empty and over built.

Cheap,cheap 26-32sq mt. Down, down, down. "Buy one

Get one free"

[KNJ]

The answer is "Yes"

[chiang mai]

The answer is "Yes"

Try reading the question!

My ten cents, sensibly priced and affordable property in a decent location will not loose value.

[Shiver]

I would agree with the general sentiment of the above posts. I've seen (in the 9 and a bit years I've been here), prices only go up, but... I don't see that many sales. I think two of the main reasons are:

1) Banks have to maintain their asset value, so they won't discount, even if that means accumulating assets they don't really want to hold.

2) Family owned land has any price they care to name, but if it is mortgage free they don't really care to sell it unless someone makes them an offer they can't refuse. There is no pressure.

There is one exception I've found locally (Udon) where the prices of new build condos are being offered for nearly half of what they were priced at before they were built. I don't know why, and do intend to investigate. I know a couple of foreigners put money down on several units at once, so it may be personal circumstance rather than an indication of the market. I suspect that the local market can't accommodate so many new condos, as it's very quiet here at the moment judging by local businesses that cater for foreigners, and most seem to stay in the village these days rather than travelling into the city.

[CNXTim]

The median price being asked/advertised as opposed to actual sale/transfers has been on a downward trend. Prices had increased dramatically over the prior 18 months. This may be what the punters like to call a "market correction".

Edited August 24, 2015 by CNXTim

[Robert24]

flat based on current economic outlook. it would take a significant downturn of the economy for property prices and land to start dropping. If you have time, maybe wait a few years and you might be able to buy lower.

[Asiantravel]

Except for the odd "fire sale" prices never go down. Sellers ride out the tough times by keeping the old price unchanged.

but who are the potential purchasers now? I would submit to you that there are far less foreigners in the market now and the Thais themselves are up to their necks in personal debt. the way I see it there will be far less sellers this time who can ride out the tough times.

[Pinot]

I only know the market in Phuket where prices have plummeted with the bloated inventory increasing by the day. No one is buying. Russians propped up the market the last few years but are now all defaulting as the ruble falls of the clift.

Only people who buy are the clueless.

Everyone I know who has a bought property has sold or wants out. They can't get out.

Buying real estate in Thailand is always a bad financial decision. I can't be bothered listing the reasons but here is the big one: You never own it.

Renting is the only thing that makes sense in LOS.

To address OP's question: I don't expect the real estate market to change in the next 20 years, if ever. Don't buy in Thailand. Don't be fooled by anecdotal stories of profiting from property. Save your money.

I asked a realtor, one of the biggest independent, if he would buy a house, "Of course not."

[MockingJay]

I only know the market in Phuket where prices have plummeted with the bloated inventory increasing by the day. No one is buying. Russians propped up the market the last few years but are now all defaulting as the ruble falls of the clift.

Only people who buy are the clueless.

Everyone I know who has a bought property has sold or wants out. They can't get out.

Buying real estate in Thailand is always a bad financial decision. I can't be bothered listing the reasons but here is the big one: You never own it.

Renting is the only thing that makes sense in LOS.

To address OP's question: I don't expect the real estate market to change in the next 20 years, if ever. Don't buy in Thailand. Don't be fooled by anecdotal stories of profiting from property. Save your money.

I asked a realtor, one of the biggest independent, if he would buy a house, "Of course not."

Completely erratic and ignorant to the facts post that only a flip flop wearing bar stool expat philosoph in Thailand could type up; one who is satisfied with his low profile expat life, the typical cynic, never taking risks, never investing, always telling others to "not do it!"... always considering to run back home...

I'm a selfmade property developer who has build more than 20 houses and pool villas in southern Thailand with a good 95% of the investors being happy chappy, living the good life in their villas, renting them out when not here, laughing at their friends who opted for stock market investments instead, losing it all.

All this mambo jambo about "you can't own anything here anyway", I can't hear anymore, sick and tired of it because it always exits out of peoples' mouths who have no f___ing idea what they are talking about. Many of these losers would love to own a house here, but simply can't afford it. So what is their typical reaction? Calling everyone who actually CAN afford to buy a house in LOS and who eventually does it a fool, so they can feel better about themselves and their miserable lifes while riding their rented Honda Clicks to Supercheap in their never ending quest to find the cheapest leftovers around.

Talking about leftovers... The 5% left open in my number above are the typical complainers and the ones who are never happy with themselves, no matter what; the type who regrets a buy the very minute he has to wire the payment through. These people exist, but by now I have a good sense of identifying them and weeding them out before I make a sale that puts both of us in misery until the property is been sold again.

Apart from that, I am happy with the remaining 95% while having an ice cold Weissbier in the pool of my hillside villa enjoying my panorama view at the mountains of southern Thailand. I made it! You didn't, Pinot! A gap of infinite dimensions lies between us, and I pity you!

To answer the OP's question: Property prices in Thailand will most likely wobble a bit up and down in the future, but remain quite stable, despite the odds. There is an oversupply in condos though as everyone thought the Russian "invasion" will never end... However, Thai property owners are very resilient and most have enough guts and B ) options to ride out most of the storms without making distress sales. Land, biz properties and detached houses are the best options.

Even after the tsunami, most land prices were kept at pre tsunami level, what was a miracle in itself, really. Given that Europe will self destruct in a few years from now and civil war in Europe has become an openly discussed possibility, if not WW3, Thailand and several other areas of southeast Asia are not only the best bet to survive the coming 10 to 20 years of turmoil, but the best bet to invest in something substantial: Property!

Edited August 24, 2015 by MockingJay

[Asiantravel]

I only know the market in Phuket where prices have plummeted with the bloated inventory increasing by the day. No one is buying. Russians propped up the market the last few years but are now all defaulting as the ruble falls of the clift.

Only people who buy are the clueless.

Everyone I know who has a bought property has sold or wants out. They can't get out.

Buying real estate in Thailand is always a bad financial decision. I can't be bothered listing the reasons but here is the big one: You never own it.

Renting is the only thing that makes sense in LOS.

To address OP's question: I don't expect the real estate market to change in the next 20 years, if ever. Don't buy in Thailand. Don't be fooled by anecdotal stories of profiting from property. Save your money.

I asked a realtor, one of the biggest independent, if he would buy a house, "Of course not."

Completely erratic and ignorant to the facts post that only a flip flop wearing bar stool expat philosoph in Thailand could type up; one who is satisfied with his low profile expat life, the typical cynic, never taking risks, never investing, always telling others to "not do it!"... always considering to run back home...

I'm a selfmade property developer who has build more than 20 houses and pool villas in southern Thailand with a good 95% of the investors being happy chappy, living the good life in their villas, renting them out when not here, laughing at their friends who opted for stock market investments instead, losing it all.

All this mambo jambo about "you can't own anything here anyway", I can't hear anymore, sick and tired of it because it always exits out of peoples' mouths who have no f___ing idea what they are talking about. Many of these losers would love to own a house here, but simply can't afford it. So what is their typical reaction? Calling everyone who actually CAN afford to buy a house in LOS and who eventually does it a fool, so they can feel better about themselves and their miserable lifes while riding their rented Honda Clicks to Supercheap in their never ending quest to find the cheapest leftovers around.

Talking about leftovers... The 5% left open in my number above are the typical complainers and the ones who are never happy with themselves, no matter what; the type who regrets a buy the very minute he has to wire the payment through. These people exist, but by now I have a good sense of identifying them and weeding them out before I make a sale that puts both of us in misery until the property is been sold again.

Apart from that, I am happy with the remaining 95% while having an ice cold Weissbier in the pool of my hillside villa enjoying my panorama view at the mountains of southern Thailand. I made it! You didn't, Pinot! A gap of infinite dimensions lies between us, and I pity you!

To answer the OP's question: Property prices in Thailand will most likely wobble a bit up and down in the future, but remain quite stable, despite the odds. There is an oversupply in condos though as everyone thought the Russian "invasion" will never end... However, Thai property owners are very resilient and most have enough guts and B ) options to ride out most of the storms without making distress sales. Land, biz properties and detached houses are the best options.

Even after the tsunami, most land prices were kept at pre tsunami level, what was a miracle in itself, really. Given that Europe will self destruct in a few years from now and civil war in Europe has become an openly discussed possibility, if not WW3, Thailand and several other areas of southeast Asia are not only the best bet to survive the coming 10 to 20 years of turmoil, but the best bet to invest in something substantial: Property!

But your property developers perspective of things may not be in alignment with those who are deciding whether to plough money into this country right now ?

Given the economic and the political realities of Thailand as at today (even including the possible consequences to foreigners of an inevitable major event that we are not even allowed to talk about) .

Some may not have the same confidence as you appear to have that Thailand will be the “ best bet to survive the coming 10-20 years “ and may choose to rent here ( and own real estate in their home country ) because they simply prefer not to worry about having any risk of needing to suddenly abandon their dream home for whatever reason.

If you ever saw the movie “ Heat “ with Robert De Niro playing the part of Neil McCauley you may remember his famous line which i think applies to foreigners living here on visas of any kind in todays Thailand…….

'Never have anything in your life that you can't walk out on ... can't walk away from in 30 seconds if you spot the "heat" around the corner “.

[carter1882]

Nice post by. Mocking Jay, right on the money! The are so many doom and gloomers but a great proportion of these would love to be in a position to invest. They neither have the funds, the guts or the savvy. So they spout on criticizing Thailand to hide their pathetic inadequacies. In my extensive experience. Thailand property has its ups and downs but none of these are particularly dramatic. The general history has been upward and the future prognosis seems reasonable. Property is a long term thing and many of us who have properly committed to Thailand can afford to wait and enjoy this wonderful country with our families and friends.

[ozyjon]

At the end of the day,,, you make the choice.

[mommysboy]

There is no such thing as down in Thai property market. People ask the same price regardless if it does not sell.

[pauleddy]

never buy here, because you will never sell it or make a decent profit.

Thais don't have the same mentality about buying or selling.

Always rent! In fact, I am starting to realise that renting is better almost everywhere in the world.

Eddy

[thailandforumaddict]

I never met anyone doing any profit when selling a house short term.

It's very easy to buy a lot cheaper than sellers ask because so many houses to sell and foreigners cannot buy them legally....

[stament]

I'm into buy for the medium to long term 10 years plus

[roamer]

I only know the market in Phuket where prices have plummeted with the bloated inventory increasing by the day. No one is buying. Russians propped up the market the last few years but are now all defaulting as the ruble falls of the clift.

Only people who buy are the clueless.

Everyone I know who has a bought property has sold or wants out. They can't get out.

Buying real estate in Thailand is always a bad financial decision. I can't be bothered listing the reasons but here is the big one: You never own it.

Renting is the only thing that makes sense in LOS.

To address OP's question: I don't expect the real estate market to change in the next 20 years, if ever. Don't buy in Thailand. Don't be fooled by anecdotal stories of profiting from property. Save your money.

I asked a realtor, one of the biggest independent, if he would buy a house, "Of course not."

Completely erratic and ignorant to the facts post that only a flip flop wearing bar stool expat philosoph in Thailand could type up; one who is satisfied with his low profile expat life, the typical cynic, never taking risks, never investing, always telling others to "not do it!"... always considering to run back home...

I'm a selfmade property developer who has build more than 20 houses and pool villas in southern Thailand with a good 95% of the investors being happy chappy, living the good life in their villas, renting them out when not here, laughing at their friends who opted for stock market investments instead, losing it all.

All this mambo jambo about "you can't own anything here anyway", I can't hear anymore, sick and tired of it because it always exits out of peoples' mouths who have no f___ing idea what they are talking about. Many of these losers would love to own a house here, but simply can't afford it. So what is their typical reaction? Calling everyone who actually CAN afford to buy a house in LOS and who eventually does it a fool, so they can feel better about themselves and their miserable lifes while riding their rented Honda Clicks to Supercheap in their never ending quest to find the cheapest leftovers around.

Talking about leftovers... The 5% left open in my number above are the typical complainers and the ones who are never happy with themselves, no matter what; the type who regrets a buy the very minute he has to wire the payment through. These people exist, but by now I have a good sense of identifying them and weeding them out before I make a sale that puts both of us in misery until the property is been sold again.

Apart from that, I am happy with the remaining 95% while having an ice cold Weissbier in the pool of my hillside villa enjoying my panorama view at the mountains of southern Thailand. I made it! You didn't, Pinot! A gap of infinite dimensions lies between us, and I pity you!

To answer the OP's question: Property prices in Thailand will most likely wobble a bit up and down in the future, but remain quite stable, despite the odds. There is an oversupply in condos though as everyone thought the Russian "invasion" will never end... However, Thai property owners are very resilient and most have enough guts and B ) options to ride out most of the storms without making distress sales. Land, biz properties and detached houses are the best options.

Even after the tsunami, most land prices were kept at pre tsunami level, what was a miracle in itself, really. Given that Europe will self destruct in a few years from now and civil war in Europe has become an openly discussed possibility, if not WW3, Thailand and several other areas of southeast Asia are not only the best bet to survive the coming 10 to 20 years of turmoil, but the best bet to invest in something substantial: Property!

" Given that Europe will self destruct in a few years from now and civil war in Europe has become an openly discussed possibility, if not WW3, Thailand and several other areas of southeast Asia are not only the best bet to survive the coming 10 to 20 years of turmoil, "

I was in agreement with you up to then. I'll bet you a nuclear war in the Korean Peninsula before civil war or WWIII in Europe.

Edited August 24, 2015 by roamer

[CNXTim]

Lets stick to the facts there is only one way a foreigner can own land in Thailand, and it has nothing to do with residential properties. Rent it is cheaper here under any period of any lifetime and 100% safe. Keep your assets in your home country, and enjoy everything this wonderful place has to offer.

If you hear advice from get rich quick property developers, get them to show you the Chanote of properties they have decided to keep because of their value and see if their name is on the title.

PS I have lived in Chiang Mai for 15 years and i never wear "flip flops".

Edited August 24, 2015 by CNXTim

[RedQualia]

Have had a couple houses in the CM area for about ten years now. Own the houses, but the land is leased. Long, long time to go on those leases, too. Depending on exchange rate(s), I paid $35,000US for one house (at 42ish Baht per dollar), and $55,000US for the second (at 36ish Baht per dollar). If I recall, I think the prices in Baht were 1,900,000 and 2,100,000 or so. Those prices include western kitchens, air cons, all the furniture, etc., etc., Each house is a three bedroom, two bath of a bit more than 100 sq. meters on a nice enough patch of land. I keep them in excellent repair... As all dolled up and pretty as I can make them, since if a woman wants to live there, hubby ain't got no choice in the matter, almost regardless of rent price. I've never actually lived in either house... I did intend to! But I ended up marrying a local gal, and as it turned out, she already owned a house and we've always lived there.

So... Thus far, the rents over the years gross at about 3,000,000 Baht. Take away maybe 100,000 Baht for improvements and repairs over the years. That means I'm a million or a bit more Baht away from having collected as much rent for them as I paid for them. Rental property is also rental property, wherever it might be in the world. If you look at the laws in the US, at least, there are no restrictions with regard to travel, etc., to take care of your rental property anywhere in the world. And so both houses have been declared on US income taxes for as long as I've had them. The homes themselves continue to be depreciated, though the furniture, etc., ended their depreciation cycles a few years back. Several trips were also made between the US and Thailand, both during their construction and after. Airfare for those trips was 100% deductible, as was a significant portion of the costs for hotels, food, laundry, travel to and from the houses, and etc. I've lived in LOS for several years now. I no longer fly to take care of my rental property here, and tax rules change over time as well. Still, I imagine current tax rules are the same or substantially similar. It's very difficult to quantify, but the tax benefits of having a couple of rental houses have clearly been fairly substantial as well. Lets say $15,000US, which might be off either way by a couple of thousand dollars. Translate that to Baht however which way you might want to, but I figure I'm getting mighty close to break even point.

Last time I checked, I still own both houses (I paid cash). Not the land, but the houses. The value of those homes has not decreased. Nor do I believe it to have greatly increased... These are just nice, but modest homes, as the OP seemed to be referring to. They are not 200-300 sq. meter mansions/monstrosities. Nor are they condos. What appears to have happened in the past several years is that the value of the LAND beneath the homes has gone up quite a bit. The value of the HOMES, less so, but I believe that too, has gone up, if only marginally. How much are those two homes worth now? I have no idea... Whatever I can get for them, of course. Were I to actually try to sell, I might ask somewhere around 3,000,000 Baht each, after again repainting them, making sure all is in good repair, etc. No idea how much I could actually get for them, but I imagine not too shy of the asking price. I don't know if I'd part with either for a price below say, 2.7 million. Though if someone were to offer me 2.5 million, then I'd have to deal with such an offer at the time it was made. Who can say what would happen? Do you want to buy one, OP?

Regardless, rents and selling prices combined appear to suggest that I'm likely to come out millions of Baht ahead on the houses in question. I have zero regrets.

What do I think will happen in the future? I think foreigners of all sorts will continue to come to Chiang Mai in ever increasing numbers (always have), as well as a good many Thai people who decide it's time to part with the Bangkok area. And I think local developers will continue to build, build, build, and thereby prevent preexisting homes from appreciating very rapidly. But that last part always happens, everywhere in the world it seems. Houses will appreciate, generally and minimally, most of the time. It's always true that there could be some major event that causes drastic changes in real estate prices, but such are exceptions, and not rules, and that applies everywhere in the world.

I also think it's a good time to buy/build for a good many foreigners. Considering the US dollar (pounds, Euros, etc., may vary), the exchange rate today is about 36 Baht per dollar. Compare to 2-3 years ago, when it was as lows as 29.xx Baht per dollar while home/land prices were increasing quite a bit. So 2-3 years ago was the absolute worst time to buy/build. The cost of a house using US dollars today is about 15% lower. It seems likely that that dollar might buy 37-39 Baht per, in six months or a year. Those who build new homes at this time, and using foreign income, will see that improved (or worsened!) exchange rate apply over the many months, as their homes progress through construction and they continue to pay for said homes. Exchange rates always vary... It does appear that there's room for the Baht to go lower. But at some point, that trend will reverse. Always does.

I am in no way sorry that I built these homes. Caveats: my words describe my personal experience, of course. And too, the comments apply to HOMES. Not to condos. I know little to nothing about condos, other than that I wouldn't much want to live in one, and I've always thought they were drastically overpriced. But that's just me... A Thai friend in Bangkok buys, rents, and sells condos all the time, and appears to make a fair amount of money doing so.

I dunno... Maybe I should look into buying a condo or two, somewhere. Don't feel any real need to sell any houses, but I dunno... Maybe I should do that as well. But then, what would I buy to take the place of the ones I sold?

What I do know is that I ain't got no money for any stock markets anywhere. I'd much rather put my money into real estate, almost anywhere in the world. I've never been fond of casinos...

[hhgz]

According to many TVers, the condo market crashed on August 29, 2014. That was the day that new visa requirements were implemented, preventing school teachers to remain in Thailand. The TVer logic that the market crashed? They believe that the vast majority of condos are bought by school teachers for their bargirlfriends. No, I don't believe it either.

[SheungWan]

What I do know is that in parts of Pattaya at least the market is as dead as a dodo. Secondary locations built for the Russians. Maybe a distress sale will do it.

[kiwikeith]

Except for the odd "fire sale" prices never go down. Sellers ride out the tough times by keeping the old price unchanged.

If you are lucky enough to find a fire sale or someone desperate after gamble your lucky, as usualy many Thai jump in the line for a feed.

The property market is on fire in NZ , Australia , and UK I dont know about rest of Europe.

Some economic experts are predicting a bubble burst, in NZ's case poor areas drop back 10 to 20% when this happened in the past.

Rich areas hardly moved, in the history of record keeping of property sales the graph is rising and never has fallen except for the dips in the line.

The world is filling up rapidly and property is getting more scarce.

Thailand moves slowly with location being the key factor as in any country.

If tourism declines to new low levels I don't think Thailands property will drop much, they seem to sit on property here for long time and it takes a long time to sell houses here, I have watched Bank owned mortgage takeovers sit for years and they want higher prices for some than others in the same Soi that are better and not broken into and stripped like their properties.

Take your time if you want to buy no need to rush into any deals as of the very slow selltime and if your a cash buyer you might be in a better position to barter.

But as some of the above posters have said , the world is so unstable at present no one knows for sure what will happen if the bubble bursts.

I decided to rent and you can get bargains here , as Thais will stubbornly sit on unrented houses demanding high rents and only letting them a few months of the year until they have to pay the bank and will take a long term rental for a rate much lower than they thought they could get.

As posted above location location, and check the plumbing as many houses back vent and smell from new.

[little mary sunshine]

Some of these posts sound like desperate developers or even more

Desperate realtors trying to unload their overpriced, empty condos.

Keep your money, invest in good quality stocks and in ten years

You will have a good nest egg. Not to mention, no headaches with

Owning property in Thailand.

Even with the current market crash, better than property in Thailand

A buying opportunity for the astute stock investors.

[MockingJay]

Some of these posts sound like desperate developers or even more

Desperate realtors trying to unload their overpriced, empty condos.

Keep your money, invest in good quality stocks and in ten years

You will have a good nest egg. Not to mention, no headaches with

Owning property in Thailand.

Even with the current market crash, better than property in Thailand

A buying opportunity for the astute stock investors.

So, little Mary Sunshine, please enlighten us with your wisdom and explain (detailed complete list) what you regard to as "good quality stocks" please. I'm waiting...

[little mary sunshine]

Checkout the blue chips on the Big Board...call your broker

Ask what he/she suggests.