aussie dollar and the thai baht

[femi fan]

I'm interested in always seeing the aussie dollar being strong. For quite some time we got used to the idea of 30 baht getting a buck. Then the serious drop at the start of the year. I now see that the general direction for the last month has been going up against the baht.

My question is really to those who follow these kinds of things, and particuarly aussie posters who follow their own nation's affairs. Do you think the dollar has settled now at 25 to 26 baht, or do you think the recent month's general rise is going to continue? iIs the aussie economy on the up again? Has the nation found alternative ways of making money to the raw materials they were selling to china?

I know this currency thing is largely a game, but i'd still like to get input from those who know more and can predict better than me. Thanks!

[ghworker2010]

many currency analysts are predicting the oz dollar to drop into the 60's and some even say into the 50s (aud/usd). Eventually it will go back up to 30 but who knows when? I would like to hope that this time next year it happens

[yougivemebaby]

Best advice is not to listen to anyone one here. Gold is supposed to be at 28,000 baht by now. USD vs Thai baht is supposed to be either 40 Baht per usd or 20 baht per usd. Go with your gut and buy when you think it's the highest

[mommysboy]

Things are so volatile nobody can predict at all. The only thing we can say is that 25 baht to the Oz dollar is rather low. And that there is unlikely to be a wild fluctuation as both are under the same sway.

Some maintain the baht is somewhat overvalued, it appears to have fallen a lot but only against the US dollar which is strong at the moment. The Thai economy is tanking.

Regarding Australian economy. I doubt very much that it will show a dramatic improvement as aggregate demand is pretty weak throughout the world, and mining sector is likely to stay in the doldrums.

[gamini]

The Australian dollar is not a good currency it is extremely volatile. The Australian economy relies on its export of raw materials, whose demand goes up and down according to the state of economies like China. I've had very bad experience with the Australian dollar I emigrated there in 1996 and I had to pay something like 34 bt for my dollar. I took most of my savings with me bought a couple of properties and invested some money. I returned to Thailand in 1999 and I got something like 21 bt for my dollar which was a terrible blow to me. Of course this is a bit off the subject but it does show how volatile the the Australian dollar can be. Personally I feel that unless there is a huge recovery in the economy of China and other big countries the Australian dollar will not appreciate and could DPA show again back down to just over 20bt

[femi fan]

Thanks for all your input.

Sorry to hear of your unlucky timings gamini! I've been visiting australia for 21 years now, but my only memory really is of about 27ish in the early times, and then 29-31ish for quite some time until early this year. From what you're saying, it seems australia is a volatile nation if their currency ups and downs is reflective of them!! Too far away from everywhere else i guess!

My gut feeling is that it can't go much lower than 24 (that's about the lowest this year), and i just hope it goes up as much as it can. What i was hoping to hear on this thread was any news people may have in terms of Australia finding new ways of making money since they are just too dependent on china these days.

[scorecard]

many currency analysts are predicting the oz dollar to drop into the 60's and some even say into the 50s (aud/usd). Eventually it will go back up to 30 but who knows when? I would like to hope that this time next year it happens

In yesterdays Age there's comment from experienced economists predicting that the OZ dollar will quickly gain ground against the US dollar. But the Baht against the dollar is a bit different, not an exact reflection of US$ / OZ$ rates.

Another OZ paper mentioned that the Baht will generally gain some ground because of influences from the Chinese economy.

Always remembering that the OZ $ is strongly influenced by commodities such as iron ore, coal, gold etc., exports. Manufactured items sold outside of OZ is a pretty small picture and has little influence on the OZ dollar value.

Where's it going in the near future. Who knows.

[Berkshire]

Things are so volatile nobody can predict at all. The only thing we can say is that 25 baht to the Oz dollar is rather low. And that there is unlikely to be a wild fluctuation as both are under the same sway.

Some maintain the baht is somewhat overvalued, it appears to have fallen a lot but only against the US dollar which is strong at the moment. The Thai economy is tanking.

Regarding Australian economy. I doubt very much that it will show a dramatic improvement as aggregate demand is pretty weak throughout the world, and mining sector is likely to stay in the doldrums.

Well the USD has actually tanked against the THB last few days. Nobody knows why. So yes, currency fluctuation is incredibly unpredictable. But the idea that the "Thai economy is tanking" is not a good gauge--other economies are tanking as well. Australia is different from the US in that you guys seem to be much more dependent on China and commodity prices. That being the case, I'd imagine short term pain and medium term stabilization.

[CrummyJuggler]

The USD tanked against the THB??? Lol. How about the Thai central bank intervened in currency markets and bought THB?

[smotherb]

Things are so volatile nobody can predict at all. The only thing we can say is that 25 baht to the Oz dollar is rather low. And that there is unlikely to be a wild fluctuation as both are under the same sway.

Some maintain the baht is somewhat overvalued, it appears to have fallen a lot but only against the US dollar which is strong at the moment. The Thai economy is tanking.

Regarding Australian economy. I doubt very much that it will show a dramatic improvement as aggregate demand is pretty weak throughout the world, and mining sector is likely to stay in the doldrums.

Well the USD has actually tanked against the THB last few days. Nobody knows why. So yes, currency fluctuation is incredibly unpredictable. But the idea that the "Thai economy is tanking" is not a good gauge--other economies are tanking as well. Australia is different from the US in that you guys seem to be much more dependent on China and commodity prices. That being the case, I'd imagine short term pain and medium term stabilization.

Tanked? USD to THB is 1 to 35.55 now.

[Gonzo the Face]

Things are so volatile nobody can predict at all. The only thing we can say is that 25 baht to the Oz dollar is rather low. And that there is unlikely to be a wild fluctuation as both are under the same sway.

Some maintain the baht is somewhat overvalued, it appears to have fallen a lot but only against the US dollar which is strong at the moment. The Thai economy is tanking.

Regarding Australian economy. I doubt very much that it will show a dramatic improvement as aggregate demand is pretty weak throughout the world, and mining sector is likely to stay in the doldrums.

Well the USD has actually tanked against the THB last few days. Nobody knows why. So yes, currency fluctuation is incredibly unpredictable. But the idea that the "Thai economy is tanking" is not a good gauge--other economies are tanking as well. Australia is different from the US in that you guys seem to be much more dependent on China and commodity prices. That being the case, I'd imagine short term pain and medium term stabilization.

Tanked? USD to THB is 1 to 35.55 now.

......Yeah, but not too many hours ago it was over 36

[Pepper1959]

From my readings and understandings, the Federal Reserve wants the AUD around US 60c, and with the present commodity prices and volatility, even though there has been a small spike in resource prices, there is no reason why the downward trend will not continue. My belief is we Aussies can expect BAHT to AUD like in the past around 20 or 21. Don't expect 30 for a long, long time.

[bazza40]

I'm quite happy to see the Aussie dollar at 25 baht. The Thai baht is weakening due to a slowdown in manufacturing, and a lot of Thailand is deep in dedbt. The Aussie drop is partly due to commodity prices, but also due to jawboning by the Reserve Bank. The Reserve Bank wants a low dollar to increase the cost of imports and make exports more competitive. Screw you people living overseas.

As for the American dollar, smoke and mirrors. Its value is propped up by the reserve currency status. Combine the trillions of dollars in government and private debt with bullshit employment statistics, one hour a week gets you on the employed register. Add in the pissing contest with the Saudis, where the combination of depletion rates on US shale fracking plus shale company debt levels amounts to who is going to blink first. Mix a bit of ruinous military expenditures on places deemed to be strategically important to American hegemony. IMHO, it wouldn't take much for the American dollar to go down the toilet with a black swan event, and next time I doubt they could print their way out of it.

So, given it's easy to buy gold in Thailand, I'd recommend it as a currency hedge. I was buying at 18100 baht per gold baht, so I'm quite happy now.

[Mousehound]

A few personal ramblings:

I always work on 1A to US.65. The A$ is more likely to go down than up. The .65 gives me a realistic buffer. BUT - I expect a couple of minor interest rate rises early to mid next year and this will tend to strengthen the $A. The high Australian bank interest rates in recent years had far more to do with the strong $A than trade. And here is another wrinkle. With the El Niño in there is a strong chance of weak agricultural production - Australia is not just about minerals. But if Australia has weak agricultural production allied to weak mineral prices then a double whammy can be a problem. In this event the Reserve bank lifts interest rates and monies flow in from overseas and this props the dollar up again. Or the Reserve drops interest rates to stimulate the economy and the dollar goes even further down. It is all a bit smoke and mirrors but in the end I would be very cautious on exchange rates. Work on 21Bht to $A and this will give a bit of a buffer.

[bazza40]

A few personal ramblings:

I always work on 1A to US.65. The A$ is more likely to go down than up. The .65 gives me a realistic buffer. BUT - I expect a couple of minor interest rate rises early to mid next year and this will tend to strengthen the $A. The high Australian bank interest rates in recent years had far more to do with the strong $A than trade. And here is another wrinkle. With the El Niño in there is a strong chance of weak agricultural production - Australia is not just about minerals. But if Australia has weak agricultural production allied to weak mineral prices then a double whammy can be a problem. In this event the Reserve bank lifts interest rates and monies flow in from overseas and this props the dollar up again. Or the Reserve drops interest rates to stimulate the economy and the dollar goes even further down. It is all a bit smoke and mirrors but in the end I would be very cautious on exchange rates. Work on 21Bht to $A and this will give a bit of a buffer.

Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Was the AUD strong because of high commodity prices? Was it strong because interest rates here were better than the almost zero on offer in the USA? That's easy to understand. However, I find it difficult to understand how a strong Australian dollar can cause high interest rates; if that's not confusing cause with effect, please explain how it works.

The Reserve Bank is running out of room to drop interest rates. If it does, it knows retirees ( an important voting bloc ) will be pulling deposits which prop up bank lending and putting the money into riskier investments. A triple whammy, because the banks will have less money to lend to the property bingers.

Can't disagree with the smoke and mirrors, IMHO that applies to most currencies.

[GOLDBUGGY]

Australia is famous for their mining, but the new kid on the block right now affecting the AU Dollar is Oil & Gas. Just trend the price of Oil /bbl to the AU Dollar to see what I mean. So concerning the health of the AU Dollar you have to consider which direction the price of Oil will go from here.

At $50 / bbl there is talk it could go lower and hit even $35 / bbl, but if it ever did I can't see it staying their for very long. I do see the $50 to $60 Oil Price Range for a little while and possibly the next 6 months or so. I hope less, but the writing seems to be on the wall.

So I don't expect the AU Dollar to go lower then it is now compared to the Baht. I do think the recent price increase has more to do with the Baht dropping in price rather than the AU Dollar gaining in price. Thailand is an Exporting Country with strong financial ties to S.E. Asia and China. Especially to China for Rice and Rubber, which are at all time lows right now. China isn't buying much of anything right now.

I think the AU Dollar is safe where it is right now compared to the Thai Baht and if anything I would expect it to rise some in value. .

[anon4546543]

Australia has no manufacturing to speak of. It does have mining, agriculture and service industry exports. A sound and not particularly corrupt banking system and world class learning facilities. The present government is dedicated to internal infrastructure building. There is little or no support to agriculture other than free trade agreements which may provide export income because our clean and relatively cheap products. But little or no attempt is made to produce products to Asia, especially China. Prepare for the AU to go down against the USD. But I expect it to maintain parity with Thailand at around 25 - 26 TB to AU. The US is extended by so much printing, If China and other banks call in the debt owed, the US may be in trouble. IMHO

[anon4546543]

Made a big mistake. I meant to say that no attempt is made to export products to anywhere except Asia and China.

[Jeffkp]

Things are so volatile nobody can predict at all. The only thing we can say is that 25 baht to the Oz dollar is rather low. And that there is unlikely to be a wild fluctuation as both are under the same sway.

Some maintain the baht is somewhat overvalued, it appears to have fallen a lot but only against the US dollar which is strong at the moment. The Thai economy is tanking.

Regarding Australian economy. I doubt very much that it will show a dramatic improvement as aggregate demand is pretty weak throughout the world, and mining sector is likely to stay in the doldrums.

Well the USD has actually tanked against the THB last few days. Nobody knows why. So yes, currency fluctuation is incredibly unpredictable. But the idea that the "Thai economy is tanking" is not a good gauge--other economies are tanking as well. Australia is different from the US in that you guys seem to be much more dependent on China and commodity prices. That being the case, I'd imagine short term pain and medium term stabilization.

The exception was that the Fed would raise interest rates, which would make the Dollar more attractive. They didn't and probably won't this year. So the Bhat recovered somewhat.

[kennw]

Re A$ vs US$. Don't try to do your own analyses, look at the bank forecasts, NAB, CITI etc they give predictions, compare one forecast against the other to see if they have a similar trends. generally they are correct, the variable is timing. Look at the trend is it up or down ?. Re A$ vs Baht basically it is in the same ratio as A$ vs US$. eg US$/Baht 30. ..A$/US$ 0.7 then A$ = Baht 21.

The forecast though according to banks is that A$ will trend to 0.65 Cents/US$. Don't try to work out why unless think you know better than the bank experts. At the moment the A$ has shot up to 0.73, move now if you want to import money, this rate will not last.

[Daniel Boon]

Glenn Stevens is the head knob at the (Australian) Reserve Bank ...the <deleted> has been talking the Aussie $ down for no other reason than to help the Australian mining industry - comparatively - sell cheaper resources

Dumb as dog excrement, particularly as they have killed off most of Australian industry (similar to the Yanks), so we have less disposable income to pay for over-priced everything ...

[ozyjon]

Pass the tissue, i'm crying my eyes dry.

Being in Europe having to pay in Aussie

dollars is sending me broke today i'm

getting € 0.60 cents to $1 dollar, same

time last year it was €0.85 cents to $1

I can't see the dollar being on par with

the US dollar as it was once upon a time,

i've been doing business with currencies

for over 30 years, it's time to stop.

Gold; so what, if you buy gold what do

you do with it, if you try to sell it, you might

not make a profit, the industries that used

gold such as the electronic are now using

silver so that's where to go, also someone

might rob/kill you for it - nah not worth it.

[schietkop]

I'm quite happy to see the Aussie dollar at 25 baht. The Thai baht is weakening due to a slowdown in manufacturing, and a lot of Thailand is deep in dedbt. The Aussie drop is partly due to commodity prices, but also due to jawboning by the Reserve Bank. The Reserve Bank wants a low dollar to increase the cost of imports and make exports more competitive. Screw you people living overseas.

As for the American dollar, smoke and mirrors. Its value is propped up by the reserve currency status. Combine the trillions of dollars in government and private debt with bullshit employment statistics, one hour a week gets you on the employed register. Add in the pissing contest with the Saudis, where the combination of depletion rates on US shale fracking plus shale company debt levels amounts to who is going to blink first. Mix a bit of ruinous military expenditures on places deemed to be strategically important to American hegemony. IMHO, it wouldn't take much for the American dollar to go down the toilet with a black swan event, and next time I doubt they could print their way out of it.

So, given it's easy to buy gold in Thailand, I'd recommend it as a currency hedge. I was buying at 18100 baht per gold baht, so I'm quite happy now.

Very well said, most people around here who are betting on paper money in times never seen in history before. Its a pitty so many people are not interested to read the truth about money in history and keep believing the USD or that any currency is MONEY, a "store of value over long time". They look at gold as a "pet rock". They dont understand that gold is valued in the same currency that is the USD, printed into oblivia. Just google the qty of USD in the world and the information is there. The qty of GOLD never changes as its fixed by nature, as long as we cant reproduce it. And to all the nay sayers I say, most people where wrong about the great depression, the internet hype, asian crisis and so forth. The big deal is, the next crisis will wipe out more then all crisis before. Why? Cause what happens in China, matters in the USA. This was NEVER the case in any time of history. Also, never there where more paper assets values around then REAL tangibel assets. If you own gold in a bank account, good luck to you in the next crisis. My brother lost 50K in a "safe" Iceland bank account. So to all you guys here living on a pension I say, do your own research and come back here in 2 weeks to reply with the result.

[schietkop]

Pass the tissue, i'm crying my eyes dry.

Being in Europe having to pay in Aussie

dollars is sending me broke today i'm

getting € 0.60 cents to $1 dollar, same

time last year it was €0.85 cents to $1

I can't see the dollar being on par with

the US dollar as it was once upon a time,

i've been doing business with currencies

for over 30 years, it's time to stop.

Gold; so what, if you buy gold what do

you do with it, if you try to sell it, you might

not make a profit, the industries that used

gold such as the electronic are now using

silver so that's where to go, also someone

might rob/kill you for it - nah not worth it.

The tissue is for those who have paper in their posession when the Sxxt hits the fan. Always been like this, always will; be, read some books i advise?

[nev]

I am over in Australia for the first time in 3 years for work, I work in the building trade which is booming so it was a good chance to boost my cash reserve.

3 years ago I was getting $290/day now between $320 to $350/day, others are offering more,but I prefer to work for teams I know who give me constant work and 6 days a week and I know I get paid.

My point is I am getting paid more so I am saving more which negates part of the loss in the exchange rate, it was hurting taking money out at less than 25, hopefully the money I bring back over I can change for over 25bt hoping for close to 26bt, 3 months work here I can earn enough to like live a year in Thailand.

I enjoyed reading this thread, nice to read up clued up posters and see the difference of opinion.

My take if it stays 25 or above I am happy, when it starts to drop 24 or below it is time to tighten my purse strings or maybe head back for another stint of work earlier than anticipated.

[RGW43]

Watching the exchange rate can drive you nuts. I was planning to send a somewhat larger amount than normally to my wife in Thailand a few weeks ago. So I was watching the exchange rate a bit and the comments of the "experts". When they talked about the AD might go down to 65, I panicked a bit and sent my money straight away, at about 24.9 BT/AD. Not too bad I thought, except that shortly after that the AD went up again and I kicked myself for 2 weeks for panicking and potentially loosing 10,000 BT. If you want to go crazy, watch the exchange course, and every time you send money, its the wrong time. Maybe its Murphies Law here. You just cant win that game.

[Naam]

The USD tanked against the THB??? Lol. How about the Thai central bank intervened in currency markets and bought THB?

the US-Dollar has tanked vs. nearly all currencies these last days. that applies especially vs. Asian currencies. no need to come up with the usual fairy tales of " Thai intervention".

[Naam]

Things are so volatile nobody can predict at all. The only thing we can say is that 25 baht to the Oz dollar is rather low. And that there is unlikely to be a wild fluctuation as both are under the same sway.

Some maintain the baht is somewhat overvalued, it appears to have fallen a lot but only against the US dollar which is strong at the moment. The Thai economy is tanking.

Regarding Australian economy. I doubt very much that it will show a dramatic improvement as aggregate demand is pretty weak throughout the world, and mining sector is likely to stay in the doldrums.

Well the USD has actually tanked against the THB last few days. Nobody knows why. So yes, currency fluctuation is incredibly unpredictable. But the idea that the "Thai economy is tanking" is not a good gauge--other economies are tanking as well. Australia is different from the US in that you guys seem to be much more dependent on China and commodity prices. That being the case, I'd imagine short term pain and medium term stabilization.

Tanked? USD to THB is 1 to 35.55 now.

yes tanked! minus 3.20% within 5 trading days is called "tanked".

[Naam]

another "tanking" reference US-Dollar Malaysian Ringgit -8.20% in five trading days.

[taichiplanet]

Watching the exchange rate can drive you nuts. I was planning to send a somewhat larger amount than normally to my wife in Thailand a few weeks ago. So I was watching the exchange rate a bit and the comments of the "experts". When they talked about the AD might go down to 65, I panicked a bit and sent my money straight away, at about 24.9 BT/AD. Not too bad I thought, except that shortly after that the AD went up again and I kicked myself for 2 weeks for panicking and potentially loosing 10,000 BT. If you want to go crazy, watch the exchange course, and every time you send money, its the wrong time. Maybe its Murphies Law here. You just cant win that game.

you seem to have the same 'midas touch in reverse' that i have. The best time to bring over A$ is a few days after i do it, as it generally goes up!