Thai talk: Eighteen-month countdown to election remains touch-and-go

[webfact]

THAI TALK
Eighteen-month countdown to election remains touch-and-go
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Only about two weeks before he told a gathering of youngsters that the next general election will be held 18 months from now, Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha had told another audience: If national reconciliation doesn't take place, the election may not be held.

What, then, is the real story?

In other words, what does "reconciliation" mean in this context?

On a separate occasion, another senior member of the government, Interior Minister General Anupong Paochinda, had said if real reform did not materialise, holding an election would only return the country to the chaos that preceded the coup.

"Reform" and "reconciliation" have become the two main conditions for the "road map", in line with its 6+4+6+4 formula. But who has the final say on whether those "conditions" have actually been met?

"Reform", regardless of how one defines it, won't be "completed" within 18 months (or even 18 years, for that matter) since it is after all a continuing process that defies definition. In fact, one could argue that holding an election after the coup would be a significant sign of reform in itself.

But, of course, the country remains divided on almost every major political issue. There will be those who insist that if the country remains divided, going to the polls would simply push the nation back to the kind of confrontation that brought about the political street violence. And that might provide another excuse for another coup.

The other side would be ready to counter with the argument that the longer the coup leaders run the country, the more divided the country will become. Therefore, returning power to the voters would at least free the country up so that the people could choose their representatives, who should realise their main duty would be to resolve the problems that had led to this dismal state.

"Reconciliation" is an even more delicate precondition for holding the next election. What has to happen before reconciliation becomes a reality?

There are very few people who fall into the category of being "neutral" in the current political landscape. You are either against the coup because it put the country back years, or you think it was a "necessary evil".

Those who weren't on talking terms because of their political differences remain uncommunicative today, since the scene remains unchanged despite hopes that after such a dramatic change of events the country could hit the "restart" button.

The main reason why "reconciliation" has failed to take off is the widespread feeling that there are "winners" and "losers" in the ongoing political game. The mutual suspicion is deep-rooted and for many, it's nothing but a zero-sum game.

Can we then hope that the content of the new constitution being drafted by a second panel will pave the way for a new set of rules that will at least begin to address the questions of reform and reconciliation?

That's not very likely either. For a start, the debate over the electoral system has convinced politicians from major parties that efforts are underway to dilute their post-election influence in favour of medium-sized and small parties.

Conspiracy theories abound, as was only to be expected. One such theory holds that the constitution drafters are following the playbook of the powers-that-be, who are intent upon retaining power via a number of small parties.

Another theory says that the new mixed-member proportional representation system proposed by the Constitution Drafting Committee will pave the way for the introduction of an "outsider" as prime minister.

How that might actually come about may be a mystery for most citizens unfamiliar with the manipulation of electoral gimmickry. But knowledgeable observers insist that political sleight-of-hand is at play and that nobody should underestimate the ability of political manipulators to pull off even the most unexpected tricks.

Now you know why even the most experienced political analysts in town aren't betting on the 18-month countdown to election day.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Eighteen-month-countdown-to-election-remains-touch-30272728.html

-- The Nation 2015-11-12

[Somtamnication]

Ah, the forward-moving clock going sideways scheme. I know it well.

[BSJ]

What a situation for the PM to be in. Bringing peace and happiness to the people is proving to be a much tougher job than he expected. Maybe to hone his skills at peace and happiness making he could become adept at grabbing several eels in a bucket at once and placing them in another bucket. After practice is over the cook could make eel stew!

[JAG]

There quite simply isn't going to be an election. The junta are here to stay.

Last time they had a coup, and lost the two subsequent elections. They are playing for keeps, and won't let that happen again.

[tbthailand]

There are very few people who fall into the category of being "neutral" in the current political landscape. You are either against the coup because it put the country back years, or you think it was a "necessary evil".

or, like so many PDRC supporters, you are delighted because it was exactly what you fought so hard for....

[tukkytuktuk]

18 months more! Reform? This is what the people want? As Burma rejoices, Thailand slips into clinical depression.

[apetley]

18 months more! Reform? This is what the people want? As Burma rejoices, Thailand slips into clinical depression.

Didn't Burma take 25 years to get to last weekend's election? Early days for The General.

[waldroj]

It's not often I complement Thai media, but I have to admit that Suthichai (and The Nation) deserve fair credit for this article.

The "winners" and "losers" mentality that pervades the country at the moment appears to be just what the leader of the junta wants. As, it ensures that deep divisions remain, thus providing the platform for him to control the show for a long, long time to come.

Any message of reconciliation flowing out of the junta needs to be exposed for the sham that it is.

[Laughing Gravy]

18 months more! Reform? This is what the people want? As Burma rejoices, Thailand slips into clinical depression.

Didn't Burma take 25 years to get to last weekend's election? Early days for The General.

Not when you count all the years Thailand has had with coups and trying to get reform. a lot longer than 25 years. So really Burma is ahead of Thailand in that respect. Some people won't like that but the truth often hurts.

[metisdead]

From the NOTICE TO MEMBERS POSTING IN THAILAND NEWS:

Any discussion of the Monarchy or members of the royal family in a political context will result in a ban. This includes vague comments that could be construed as referring to the Monarchy.

A post has been removed.

[zaphod reborn]

It's not often I complement Thai media, but I have to admit that Suthichai (and The Nation) deserve fair credit for this article.

The "winners" and "losers" mentality that pervades the country at the moment appears to be just what the leader of the junta wants. As, it ensures that deep divisions remain, thus providing the platform for him to control the show for a long, long time to come.

Any message of reconciliation flowing out of the junta needs to be exposed for the sham that it is.

Meh. The people will get fed up and throw him out. The country is in a state of perpetual coups.

[chainarong]

18 months more! Reform? This is what the people want? As Burma rejoices, Thailand slips into clinical depression.

Didn't Burma take 25 years to get to last weekend's election? Early days for The General.

I wouldn't put Burma in the same category as Thailand , only 18 months back Thailand did have an Democratically elected government even if it was a bad one.

[chainarong]

Yesterday the DCD was talking about unelected P.M. again , that would immediately be rejected by the people , so if the Election target is in eighteen months time ,sack the CDC and appoint a few Thai's from TV Forum to fast track the charter .that should only take a weekend, with one day for a good ol piss -UP...........

[chainarong]

It's not often I complement Thai media, but I have to admit that Suthichai (and The Nation) deserve fair credit for this article.

The "winners" and "losers" mentality that pervades the country at the moment appears to be just what the leader of the junta wants. As, it ensures that deep divisions remain, thus providing the platform for him to control the show for a long, long time to come.

Any message of reconciliation flowing out of the junta needs to be exposed for the sham that it is.

Meh. The people will get fed up and throw him out. The country is in a state of perpetual coups.

With the advantage of social media , (that students didn't have in 1992) , you could muster some interesting developments by using code over a week., single pathway or not.

[chainarong]

18 months more! Reform? This is what the people want? As Burma rejoices, Thailand slips into clinical depression.

Didn't Burma take 25 years to get to last weekend's election? Early days for The General.

Not when you count all the years Thailand has had with coups and trying to get reform. a lot longer than 25 years. So really Burma is ahead of Thailand in that respect. Some people won't like that but the truth often hurts.

Notice how the Burma military tried to keep out the opposition leader by making her ineligible as president , because her son was born outside , that is the sort sh!!t stuff that this Junta can do also with the Shins, making any reconciliation impossible, not that any has been done under the Junta, having a coup never solved anything that was evident from 06 , just a power hungry military flexing its so call might, impressing no one, achieving nothing

[Thailand]

18 months more! Reform? This is what the people want? As Burma rejoices, Thailand slips into clinical depression.

Didn't Burma take 25 years to get to last weekend's election? Early days for The General.

Not when you count all the years Thailand has had with coups and trying to get reform. a lot longer than 25 years. So really Burma is ahead of Thailand in that respect. Some people won't like that but the truth often hurts.

Notice how the Burma military tried to keep out the opposition leader by making her ineligible as president , because her son was born outside , that is the sort sh!!t stuff that this Junta can do also with the Shins, making any reconciliation impossible, not that any has been done under the Junta, having a coup never solved anything that was evident from 06 , just a power hungry military flexing its so call might, impressing no one, achieving nothing

The military in Myanmar thought that by guaranteeing themselves 25 per cent they would be nailed on. Looks like that has backfired with the Lady garnering most of the votes and a majority subject to no late fixes thrown in.

Not much chance of a vote here in the foreseeable future but if/when it does happen it looks like a military (associates) need a guarantee of 51 per cent of the seats to be safe!

[JAG]

18 months more! Reform? This is what the people want? As Burma rejoices, Thailand slips into clinical depression.

Didn't Burma take 25 years to get to last weekend's election? Early days for The General.

Not when you count all the years Thailand has had with coups and trying to get reform. a lot longer than 25 years. So really Burma is ahead of Thailand in that respect. Some people won't like that but the truth often hurts.

Notice how the Burma military tried to keep out the opposition leader by making her ineligible as president , because her son was born outside , that is the sort sh!!t stuff that this Junta can do also with the Shins, making any reconciliation impossible, not that any has been done under the Junta, having a coup never solved anything that was evident from 06 , just a power hungry military flexing its so call might, impressing no one, achieving nothing

The military in Myanmar thought that by guaranteeing themselves 25 per cent they would be nailed on. Looks like that has backfired with the Lady garnering most of the votes and a majority subject to no late fixes thrown in.

Not much chance of a vote here in the foreseeable future but if/when it does happen it looks like a military (associates) need a guarantee of 51 per cent of the seats to be safe!

For heavens sake don't give them ideas!

[Srikcir]

"But who has the final say on whether those "conditions" have actually been met?"

That is a self-evident question. Why ask it?

Prayut as Chief of the NCPO and incidentally PM has always made it clear that he alone decides the agenda for the roadmap to democracy. Soverneignty does not lay with the Thai people except to the extent that Prayut allows. When the CDC deviates from Prayut's agenda, his Old Guard Meechai puts the CDC back on Prayut's roadmap.

The USA has Route 66. Prayut has Route 666.

[FangFerang]

Touch and go? Touch and go?

More like go and go, and no touch at all.

[Jackin1960]

There quite simply isn't going to be an election. The junta are here to stay.

Last time they had a coup, and lost the two subsequent elections. They are playing for keeps, and won't let that happen again.

I have to agree with you I also think they or he intends to hold on to his place until he is ousted with an overwhelming peace movement that will sweep him back into the street.

[MaxLee]

Only about two weeks before he told a gathering of youngsters that the next general election will be held 18 months from now, Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha had told another audience: If national reconciliation doesn't take place, the election may not be held.

What, then, is the real story?

Easy,.... "This regime will stay in power 4ever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

[Nobb]

No way will the Thai PM give up his title. He will find more and more reasons to stay in control of the government. Once you feel the power and glory to run a country it is hard to give it up!

[JAG]

There quite simply isn't going to be an election. The junta are here to stay.

Last time they had a coup, and lost the two subsequent elections. They are playing for keeps, and won't let that happen again.

I have to agree with you I also think they or he intends to hold on to his place until he is ousted with an overwhelming peace movement that will sweep him back into the street.

If that is the case ( and I can agree that an overwhelming peace movement is a possible), my fear is that the junta may attempt to meet it with force. Put bluntly, they would, I fear, shoot protesters without compunction if they thought their hold on power was threatened. That would probably lead to their downfall, but it would be long drawn out and bloody.

I envisage four possible endings.

1) A direct hand over to a democratically elected government, and the discussions are endless as to when, if, ever that is likely.

2) A negotiated return to civilian rule, leading in turn to elections. The civilian government is unlikely to be representative, will be backed by and maintained in power by the military, and the elections will likely remain deferred for various reasons.

3) An overwhelming peaceful popular movement sweeping them from power.

4) A messy possibly prolonged overthrow of the junta regime following a violent suppression of the said popular movement.

The longer the junta (or an appointed civilian substitute) remain in power, the more likely the third, and inevitably following it the fourth scenario become

Edited November 12, 2015 by JAG