Hiring of foreign aviation experts to be speeded up

[jaywalker]

Why wasn't this hiring of people to do a proper job set in motion when the problem first reared its head months ago? Because the Thais thought they could fudge it.

Next up - the Thai fishing industry; with allegations of forced labour, slavery, trafficking and illegal and over-fishing, that should provide another ready example of why aspirations so often fall short of reality here.

It is a pity that, more often than not, the common people pay the price while the unmentionable organisations clean up.

The problems didn't just appear a few months ago unfortunately. They have been building up for years and all the previous governments just ignored it and swept it under the carpet.

This government was the unlucky one that caught it.

IMHO it really doesn't matter which government caught this problem (and for that matter the other problems you mention too) because I don't think a military, Thaksin, Democrat or coalition government will do any better or worse than the current lot.

Civilian administration of an airline usually works best, but the cronyism is just too entrenched at this point.

The brown envelopes flow & have been flowing for too long.

[jaywalker]

If Thai aviation personnel are like Thais in other areas were foreigners are employed,nothing will change.

Thais will listen, smile, nod their heads then do exactly as they please ignoring everything taught them. So the quality of foreigners is not even an issue. When the foreigners leave it will be business as usual.

The Thai's they train should be forced to write what you said on a chalkboard 100 times a day for six months.

Then it MIGHT start to sink in for them.

DO IT THIS WAY!

I tried to get them to organize a Master Mechanic's tool box & it was like herding cats. At the end of the day they might as well have been working with a 1,000 piece tool set in a 5 gallon bucket......in a muddy junkyard.

Edited December 5, 2015 by jaywalker

[NCC1701A]

then the farangs hand a list of all the problems they found with the aircraft.

like redoing all the undocumented maintenance.

and how would you know if all of the records are not falsified?

[newnative]

Speeded up = Sometime this decade

[JAG]

It appears almost inevitable that the European civil aviation organisation is going to issue a downgrade too.

As a layman it seems to me that the the people who run Thai aviation have have two choices.

1. They can hire in the experienced qualified personnel from outside, regardless of cost, in an attempt to put the immediate problem right, and to establish procedures to ensure that the same problem does not happen again.

2. They can accept the downgrades, claim it is not their fault, nobody understands the Thai way, foreigners are interfering, and continue pretty much as they are, and await the demise of the countries aviation industry. The routes they can fly will be curtailed, they will be unable to lease new aircraft or dispose of their surplus ones.

Option 1 is the only sane choice. But it will involve such a loss of face that I doubt that they could stomach it!

A good time to buy shares in Nakhon Chai Air?

At least they won't be needing that second runway at Swampy!

Edited December 5, 2015 by JAG

[jpinx]

It appears almost inevitable that the European civil aviation organisation is going to issue a downgrade too.

As a layman it seems to me that the the people who run Thai aviation have have two choices.

1. They can hire in the experienced qualified personnel from outside, regardless of cost, in an attempt to put the immediate problem right, and to establish procedures to ensure that the same problem does not happen again.

2. They can accept the downgrades, claim it is not their fault, nobody understands the Thai way, foreigners are interfering, and continue pretty much as they are, and await the demise of the countries aviation industry. The routes they can fly will be curtailed, they will be unable to lease new aircraft or dispose of their surplus ones.

Option 1 is the only sane choice. But it will involve such a loss of face that I doubt that they could stomach it!

A good time to buy shares in Nakhon Chai Air?

At least they won't be needing that second runway at Swampy!

Option 2 is much more likely -- given the way the costs of running an properly certified international airline have spiralled upwards. I haven't checked, but what airlines and routes will actually be curtailed if they fail to get up to ICAO standards again?

[JAG]

It appears almost inevitable that the European civil aviation organisation is going to issue a downgrade too.

As a layman it seems to me that the the people who run Thai aviation have have two choices.

1. They can hire in the experienced qualified personnel from outside, regardless of cost, in an attempt to put the immediate problem right, and to establish procedures to ensure that the same problem does not happen again.

2. They can accept the downgrades, claim it is not their fault, nobody understands the Thai way, foreigners are interfering, and continue pretty much as they are, and await the demise of the countries aviation industry. The routes they can fly will be curtailed, they will be unable to lease new aircraft or dispose of their surplus ones.

Option 1 is the only sane choice. But it will involve such a loss of face that I doubt that they could stomach it!

A good time to buy shares in Nakhon Chai Air?

At least they won't be needing that second runway at Swampy!

Option 2 is much more likely -- given the way the costs of running an properly certified international airline have spiralled upwards. I haven't checked, but what airlines and routes will actually be curtailed if they fail to get up to ICAO standards again?

Well going by the discussion on TV, European destinations, North America (although Thai has pulled out from that), Asia Pacific (Australia, New Zealand, Japan) and possibly China. Doesn't leave a lot of money spinners.

And what about all the aircraft on lease - the owners are not going to be impressed if the maintenance records prove to be inadequate. Will they cancel the leases, or up the charges? As I said I'm a layman, but I'll bet whatever they do it will cost the airlines a shed-load of money.

You can forget selling those A340s as well!

[jpinx]

It appears almost inevitable that the European civil aviation organisation is going to issue a downgrade too.

As a layman it seems to me that the the people who run Thai aviation have have two choices.

1. They can hire in the experienced qualified personnel from outside, regardless of cost, in an attempt to put the immediate problem right, and to establish procedures to ensure that the same problem does not happen again.

2. They can accept the downgrades, claim it is not their fault, nobody understands the Thai way, foreigners are interfering, and continue pretty much as they are, and await the demise of the countries aviation industry. The routes they can fly will be curtailed, they will be unable to lease new aircraft or dispose of their surplus ones.

Option 1 is the only sane choice. But it will involve such a loss of face that I doubt that they could stomach it!

A good time to buy shares in Nakhon Chai Air?

At least they won't be needing that second runway at Swampy!

Option 2 is much more likely -- given the way the costs of running an properly certified international airline have spiralled upwards. I haven't checked, but what airlines and routes will actually be curtailed if they fail to get up to ICAO standards again?

Well going by the discussion on TV, European destinations, North America (although Thai has pulled out from that), Asia Pacific (Australia, New Zealand, Japan) and possibly China. Doesn't leave a lot of money spinners.

And what about all the aircraft on lease - the owners are not going to be impressed if the maintenance records prove to be inadequate. Will they cancel the leases, or up the charges? As I said I'm a layman, but I'll bet whatever they do it will cost the airlines a shed-load of money.

You can forget selling those A340s as well!

That seems to be only Thai Airways - or am I missing some other international carrier that will be affected?

Thai Airways aircraft are registered on the Thai registry, but that is not mandatory. It's the control, regulation and performance of the registry that determines the acceptability to ICAO. KLM aircraft are registered in the Philippines The quickest solution would be for Thai Airways to re-register the aircraft with an acceptable country as KLM have done. There'll be a back-log of checks to be done and records tracing to prove the provenance of parts used, but it's just a big paperwork exercise. The problem is *only* political

[sawadee1947]

The Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) and other related agencies were ordered to outsource the work to experts since there are around 400 aircraft that need to be inspected.

400 aircraft.

Retrace the whole maintenance intervals?

Spare parts relative evidence?

Those specialists do not grow on trees.

That costs real money.

I know one guy that do consultant work with offshore helicopters and he is getting $2,000 per day, net. Still, the cost of safety is ALWAYS cheaper than an accident. Just ask BP.

If they have missed the dates for C and D checks for some aircraft that is very expensive. In a D Check the aircraft is completely disassembled, x-rayed all components and renewed all the components according to checklists.

One D Check for one aircraft requires approximately 50,000 technically sophisticated working hours.

Normally, the airlines plan these events for years in advance. Without these checks the approval of the aircraft goes out!

Without these checks an aircraft has only scrap value!

Further, when the detection of already exchanged components can not be provided (used parts or parts of uncertain origin), these components must be completely replaced, against original spare parts from the manufacturer.

If the documentation for 400 aircraft is incomplete, incorrect or faulty,

Good night then.

This could mean the end of an airline.

I remember that i year ago the German Airline offered to take over Thai Airways. Probably at that time the price would have been much higher than it would be now. But a Thai Airline owned by farangs?? No you don't want to lose face.

[billd766]

Not true. The junta was served notice by the ICOA on March 20, 2015 of the impending risk of downgrading. Since that time the generals have done nothing to address the problem thereby endangering the tourism sector of the economy which is variously estimated to be between 6% and 10% of Thai GDP. They certainly could have hired their foreign experts in six months time if they had started then.

Sheer incompetence of the generals.

Yet if previous governments had done their job properly then Thailand wouldn't even BE in this position.

Gross incompetence of previous governments.

If the current government had lifted a finger or even just pretended to start addressing the problems, they wouldn't be in this situation right now. They would have been given time to make changes while avoiding the downgrade.

Yet if previous governments had done anything at all instead of ignoring the problem, then this government wouldn't have had to lift a finger or address the problem simply because there would be no problem to address.

[atyclb]

Why wasn't this hiring of people to do a proper job set in motion when the problem first reared its head months ago? Because the Thais thought they could fudge it.

Next up - the Thai fishing industry; with allegations of forced labour, slavery, trafficking and illegal and over-fishing, that should provide another ready example of why aspirations so often fall short of reality here.

It is a pity that, more often than not, the common people pay the price while the unmentionable organisations clean up.

The problems didn't just appear a few months ago unfortunately. They have been building up for years and all the previous governments just ignored it and swept it under the carpet.

This government was the unlucky one that caught it.

IMHO it really doesn't matter which government caught this problem (and for that matter the other problems you mention too) because I don't think a military, Thaksin, Democrat or coalition government will do any better or worse than the current lot.

Not true. The junta was served notice by the ICOA on March 20, 2015 of the impending risk of downgrading. Since that time the generals have done nothing to address the problem thereby endangering the tourism sector of the economy which is variously estimated to be between 6% and 10% of Thai GDP. They certainly could have hired their foreign experts in six months time if they had started then.

Sheer incompetence of the generals.

Prayut did do the

right thing, the competent thing, he did order the appropriate people to correct the problem, and he even stated publicly that they carry the blame and must accept the responsibility. The major problem is the society's abilities and lack of abilities aka "competence" to be capable of resolving problems.

[tribalfusion001]

Does this mean Thai Airways tickets will be cheaper if the EU downgrade aswell?

[tigermonkey]

As usual, to put it bluntly the Thai government does not choose to act to solve problems which have been brought to light by foreign agencies or governments. They will give it lip service but no more than that. In February the junta was warned that ICAO would 'red flag' Thailand if they did not act to solve safety issues within three months.

Three months had passed. Nothing had been done. ICAO red flagged Thailand. Thailand responded "THAILAND should be ready for a re-audit by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) on safety standards by September or October, Deputy Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith has said."

This was from an article in The Nation: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Thai-aviation-industry-will-be-ready-for-ICAO-re-a-30263145.html

The article details the promises made in June by the PM and the junta government. I did not believe the promises then, and I don't believe them now. No experts will be hired - they will continue in the faith in Thainess.

[tomacht8]

Does this mean Thai Airways tickets will be cheaper if the EU downgrade aswell?

If Thai must close its 11 connections to Europe, the question is superfluous.

Then you can not book tickets with Thai Airways from/to Europe to/from Thailand.

Edited December 5, 2015 by tomacht8

[tribalfusion001]

Does this mean Thai Airways tickets will be cheaper if the EU downgrade aswell?

If Thai must close its 11 connections to Europe, the question is superfluous.

Then you can not book tickets with Thai Airways from/to Europe to/from Thailand.

I did read somewhere that an exception could be made for Thai Airways to carry on in Europe. Quite serious if they have close all 11 connections in the EU, but you have to follow the rules.

[tomacht8]

Does this mean Thai Airways tickets will be cheaper if the EU downgrade aswell?

If Thai must close its 11 connections to Europe, the question is superfluous.

Then you can not book tickets with Thai Airways from/to Europe to/from Thailand.

I did read somewhere that an exception could be made for Thai Airways to carry on in Europe. Quite serious if they have close all 11 connections in the EU, but you have to follow the rules.

That would mean that 1/3 of the revenue get eliminated.

Did not know how Thai Airways could absorb this, given the existing cost structures.

The Asian short-distance market is highly competitive and does not allow price increases.

The future for Thai Airways looks very grim.

[tribalfusion001]

Does this mean Thai Airways tickets will be cheaper if the EU downgrade aswell?

If Thai must close its 11 connections to Europe, the question is superfluous.

Then you can not book tickets with Thai Airways from/to Europe to/from Thailand.

I did read somewhere that an exception could be made for Thai Airways to carry on in Europe. Quite serious if they have close all 11 connections in the EU, but you have to follow the rules.

That would mean that 1/3 of the revenue get eliminated.

Did not know how Thai Airways could absorb this, given the existing cost structures.

The Asian short-distance market is highly competitive and does not allow price increases.

The future for Thai Airways looks very grim.

The airline industry is very competitive, mis-management doesn't help from CAA in Thailand. I've flown Thai quite a few a times, good for non-stop from LHR, but the old 747's were not good. I am considering flying with them in the new year on the A380 from LHR to BKK.

[JAG]

Does this mean Thai Airways tickets will be cheaper if the EU downgrade aswell?

If Thai must close its 11 connections to Europe, the question is superfluous.

Then you can not book tickets with Thai Airways from/to Europe to/from Thailand.

I did read somewhere that an exception could be made for Thai Airways to carry on in Europe. Quite serious if they have close all 11 connections in the EU, but you have to follow the rules.

That would mean that 1/3 of the revenue get eliminated.

Did not know how Thai Airways could absorb this, given the existing cost structures.

The Asian short-distance market is highly competitive and does not allow price increases.

The future for Thai Airways looks very grim.

I wonder whether it will come down to a decision between spending government money on bringing in qualified ( foreign) people to sort out the mess they are in, with the consequent loss of face, or spending the money on bailing out Thai International when they lose 30% of their revenue.

I think I know were the money will go.

Edited December 5, 2015 by JAG

[ExpatOilWorker]

They should also hire an electrician:

"A short power outage was experienced at Suvarnabhumi airport on Friday night but operations were not affected.

A Suvarnabhumi airport official said the blackout lasted nine minutes from 8.11pm to 8.20pm."

[expatbrit]

They should also hire an electrician:

"A short power outage was experienced at Suvarnabhumi airport on Friday night but operations were not affected.

A Suvarnabhumi airport official said the blackout lasted nine minutes from 8.11pm to 8.20pm."

A silly comment and a poor attempt at "Thai Bashing"

Power outages are not unique to Thai airports!

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/aug/04/heathrow-power-cut-luggage

Search around and find many more examples.

[tigermonkey]

If Thai must close its 11 connections to Europe, the question is superfluous.

Then you can not book tickets with Thai Airways from/to Europe to/from Thailand.

I did read somewhere that an exception could be made for Thai Airways to carry on in Europe. Quite serious if they have close all 11 connections in the EU, but you have to follow the rules.

That would mean that 1/3 of the revenue get eliminated.

Did not know how Thai Airways could absorb this, given the existing cost structures.

The Asian short-distance market is highly competitive and does not allow price increases.

The future for Thai Airways looks very grim.

I wonder whether it will come down to a decision between spending government money on bringing in qualified ( foreign) people to sort out the mess they are in, with the consequent loss of face, or spending the money on bailing out Thai International when they lose 30% of their revenue.

I think I know were the money will go.

No doubt if THAI loses 1/3 of their revenue, they will not also lose 1/3 of their costs - more aircraft sitting collecting pigeon poo. Maybe they can put the A380 back on the BKK-CNX (Chiang Mai) route.

The problem with not fixing the DCA, with foreign experts, is that the DCA has oversight of all aviation activities in Thailand. If they can't ensure that the airports and air traffic control, are safe and up to international standards, the foreign carriers will stop coming here, other than the Africans and a few Russians. It all could become very bleak very quickly.

Edited December 5, 2015 by tigermonkey

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

I'm more familiar with the FAA sanctions than those that could be ordered by EASA...

EASA certainly can ban Thai carriers from flying to and from EASA member countries. However, I never got the impression that any EASA downgrade of Thailand would have any similar impact for EASA carriers who might be already flying TO Thailand.

The downgrades mean Thailand is not properly regulating the Thai carriers under its jurisdiction in a range of areas, including certifying things such as flight crew training, aircraft maintenance, etc etc. But those downgrades of the Thai system, AFAIK, don't necessarily mean that other nation's carriers flying into Thailand would be unsafe.

[John1012]

How does one unravel Thainess, face, and corruption?

One starves it of money.

[elgordo38]

When they open their wallets like this and actually spend money you know it is serious. Usually things are patched over as long as possible. They do not get the concept that one must spend money to make money. They want tourist currency in the worst way but forget about fixing things up to attract them. I often wonder where all the brown stuff is flushed to that tourists leave behind.

[elgordo38]

How does one unravel Thainess, face, and corruption?

Trying to sort this mess out would be like climbing Mt Everest blind folded, and I would guess that by now words out within the industry as to why Thailands aviation is in this situation and considering that there is a worldwide shortage of aviation experts I think that they might be struggling to find the right people.

Would they have to supply their own band aids?? I wonder how much time this will buy them till they have to go through the whole routine again. My guess is a year or two at the most. Thais are not long on maintenance. Winging it comes to mind.

[MaiChai]

I gave up being an expert in Asia years ago. Its not specifically a Thai problem. The mindset is to pay as little as possible. The grads come out of university and don't want to be engineers or tech specialists; they stay in these roles for max 2 years and then move up into management as quick as they can. Thus you end up with companies full of middle management and project managers and inexperienced engineers who cannot delivered the level of skill required. International companies in the region will spend all their time sending in experts from Europe/US to fill the shortfall. Sound familiar?

[onetime]

I teach aviation English. Don't expect any help from me.

"chicken or beef?" "orange juice or apple juice?"

It's a long way from 'chicken or beef', and it would be a nightmare I loath to entertain.

Short Answer Questions measure the test taker’s ability to understand common, concrete and work related words in sentence context and to produce an appropriate word(s) in response to the questions. To successfully perform on this task, the test taker must be able to identify the words in phonological and syntactic context, infer the demand proposition, and then say an appropriate vocabulary word(s) as a response. Lexical items are based on the ICAO list of priority lexical domains (ICAO Manual, page B- 8) including topics such as animals, numbers, movement, time, transportation, and weather. Since items are recorded in different native and non-native voices, the test taker must be able to comprehend a range of speech varieties. Thus, performance on this task contributes to the following three subscores: Vocabulary, Comprehension, and Interactions (for the appropriate response aspect of the Interactions subscore).

[OMGImInPattaya]

When they open their wallets like this and actually spend money you know it is serious. Usually things are patched over as long as possible. They do not get the concept that one must spend money to make money. They want tourist currency in the worst way but forget about fixing things up to attract them. I often wonder where all the brown stuff is flushed to that tourists leave behind.

Not that hard to figure...why do you think the Chopraya is so brown ?

[duckmandon]

I went to the hardware store to buy some window film. I picked what I wanted & then asked for 2 mts. They had a cutting machine for this purpose & after about 10 minutes of trying to work it out the 15 staff who were there, walked away & left a girl to cut it with scissors. I just sat back & laughed. I then walked up put the roll in the machine & showed them how to use it. They all nodded politely & said we know how to use. It OK. Thais do not take a foreigner telling them how to do something well. They don't like it at all. So if such a simple task cannot be taught to a Thai then how the **** are engineers going to teach them how to maintain an plane or anythign else that is critical in the aviation industry.

[trogers]

the average rate for Telecoms Site Mangers in Munich is between 450 and 550 Euros per day, which is about 17000 to 21000 baht per day, I do not think the Thais would be willing to pay that much for Airplane specialists

You're right, it's going to cost a whole lot more than that.

They will have to pay it.

If they can't, don't or won't pat the proper going rates then they won't get quality people and that WILL cost them a whole lot more in the future. They will be banned from the USA, possibly from the EU and the UK, maybe from Asia Pacific too.

Once you lose your reputation and passengers start to use other airlines you won't get them back very easily.

If you ban international airlines from Thailand then you will lose all the forex that tourists bring in (and how much is that worth) and the country will go bust quickly.

International travel into and out of Thailand - fly to Penang or Cambodia or Laos and connect via tour coaches into Thailand.