Uncertain Times

[thequietman]

In the current times of uncertainty, is anyone thinking of converting their baht to an alternative currency?

Are you concerned if current events play out, that the baht will loose a lot of its value?

For those of us who live her, if the baht does devalue, will we still have buying power within the country?

I am a little nervous and am considering changing my baht to dollars. Anyone agree or alternatively, disagree?

Many thanks for any replies.

[BuaBS]

You're a bit late , THB just lost 25 % or more to USD. It depends largely on what your foreign currency will be. If you are Russian , THB just gained 50 % in the past year. Unless something bad happens here , the THB is not going down much further. If you keep your money in THB , and it still devalues , it won't matter much in country , buying Thai products. Imported products will cost more.

[DogNo1]

I suspect that prices will go up if the Thai Baht continues to lose value. I keep most of my money in US dollars and only transfer in the money I need to use in the short-term. My hotel has raised its price 18% this year and plans to increase 10% next year, probably to keep the room price constant in reference to foreign currencies. It will be interesting to see if they can keep their customers as they raise their prices. I'm going to be looking around at other places and other countries.

[craigt3365]

When the US starts raising interest rates, hot money that flowed here back in the QE period, will flow back to the US for the higher yields, and higher security. The US dollar will probably strengthen, and the Baht weaken. Hopefully, Thailand will take measures to ensure it doesn't weaken too much!

[Maestro]

Removed an incomprehensible post and the replies to it.

[vukovar77]

i think Thai Baht will be almost same or stronger in next year,not weaker to most world major currencies,cos. economy will be stronger!

Anyway it can be volatile in meantime !!!!

[Suradit69]

When the US starts raising interest rates, hot money that flowed here back in the QE period, will flow back to the US for the higher yields, and higher security. The US dollar will probably strengthen, and the Baht weaken. Hopefully, Thailand will take measures to ensure it doesn't weaken too much!

There may be a nominal rate increase in December, but it's doubtful that there will be much more any time soon. Realistically the market, not the Fed, sets rates and it has already priced in the small increase. The dollar may still rise but I doubt it will be because of the Fed, at least in the near term.

Currency rates tend to be cyclical & self-correcting over time. Many people seem to pursue the buy-high-and-sell-low mentality with currency and stocks. Everyone who hoarded the Euro for its strength and safety when it was strong now find themselves on the wrong side of the trade.

[craigt3365]

When the US starts raising interest rates, hot money that flowed here back in the QE period, will flow back to the US for the higher yields, and higher security. The US dollar will probably strengthen, and the Baht weaken. Hopefully, Thailand will take measures to ensure it doesn't weaken too much!

There may be a nominal rate increase in December, but it's doubtful that there will be much more any time soon. Realistically the market, not the Fed, sets rates and it has already priced in the small increase. The dollar may still rise but I doubt it will be because of the Fed, at least in the near term.

Currency rates tend to be cyclical & self-correcting over time. Many people seem to pursue the buy-high-and-sell-low mentality with currency and stocks. Everyone who hoarded the Euro for its strength and safety when it was strong now find themselves on the wrong side of the trade.

I've been reading some articles lately saying the fed may be forced to raise rates faster and quicker than anticipated. The US economy is doing quite well.

http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/201512046926/us-employers-added-211000-jobs-in-november-update.aspx

[asdecas]

I gave up trying to second guess currency markets a long time ago - nowadays I keep what little cash I have in my home currency and change to Baht as needed. Over the long term it makes little difference, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

It is however true that, since the 1997 Asian crisis - when at one point that year the Baht was at nearly 49 to the USD, an almost 100% devaluation - the Baht has depreciated over time against the USD. Whether that will continue to be the case is a matter of opinion, about which, as is the way with economists, you will find little consensus. The dollar is still the World's no. 1 reserve currency. Will that continue, or will America's $90tn debt cause the USD to finally implode? Will certain EVENTS in Thailand affect the situation? Take your pick.

Edited December 7, 2015 by asdecas

[nithisa78]

When the US starts raising interest rates, hot money that flowed here back in the QE period, will flow back to the US for the higher yields, and higher security. The US dollar will probably strengthen, and the Baht weaken. Hopefully, Thailand will take measures to ensure it doesn't weaken too much!

There may be a nominal rate increase in December, but it's doubtful that there will be much more any time soon. Realistically the market, not the Fed, sets rates and it has already priced in the small increase. The dollar may still rise but I doubt it will be because of the Fed, at least in the near term.

Currency rates tend to be cyclical & self-correcting over time. Many people seem to pursue the buy-high-and-sell-low mentality with currency and stocks. Everyone who hoarded the Euro for its strength and safety when it was strong now find themselves on the wrong side of the trade.

I've been reading some articles lately saying the fed may be forced to raise rates faster and quicker than anticipated. The US economy is doing quite well.

http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/201512046926/us-employers-added-211000-jobs-in-november-update.aspx

There was no cola for social security or military. It will be political suicide. if they raise the interest rates in the USA. I don't believe the fear they try to create with what they write or have to say. Once upon a time I was in their employ.

The world has gone completely mad. We're all responsible. Nobody can point any fingers. There's a lot more to all this than the haters griping about Thailand or their miserable, meaningless lives in general. We need to start helping each other and quickly. For innocent people it quickly becomes doomsday. How can so many on TV write about it, complain about it, throw stones about it, but still ignore it.

[KittenKong]

Many prices here seem to be way over the top when converted into foreign currency (property, vehicles, groceries). Couple that with the fact that the Baht has little or no value outside of Thailand and I see no point having more of them than is necessary.

Also I cant be sure that my next extension of stay will be granted (the same applies to virtually everyone else who isn't Thai also), and that alone doesn't encourage me to have more money here than I need.

[chicowoodduck]

Geez, everyone is the expert....No One Knows what will happen....but just in case....I shipped all my baht back to the US over a year ago and sleep pretty good these days....don't try to over think the whole process....it just makes matters worse...?

[SpokaneAl]

I think that buying and selling in anticipation of values between currencies rising and/or falling is difficult, if not impossible. There will always be those who claim to have figured things out, but I find little evidence of consistent success.

I believe a conservative approach over time works best - buy baht at regular intervals to meet your living needs and keep a chunk of money in your home currency.

Then get on with life.

P.S. Times are always uncertain.

Edited December 7, 2015 by SpokaneAl

[Fairynuff]

Everyone has an opinion, but nobody has a fact. So the fact is, speculate all you like but nobody knows!

[MauiSteveBKK]

Keep it in USD Dollars.

Absolutely.

$100.00 bill.

No writing or tear on it.

If you have the "new" $100 bill -- with the blue stripe -- you can get very good exchange rates.

My Thai Wife left Nov. 26th for BKK to see family in Issan.

She took many $100 bills, new with blue vertical stripe.

She sells them directly to the Branch Manager of her bank.

He pays a "premium" for new $100 bills.

He's a long-time banker and is hording US currency.

[KittenKong]

The world has gone completely mad. We're all responsible. Nobody can point any fingers. There's a lot more to all this than the haters griping about Thailand or their miserable, meaningless lives in general. We need to start helping each other and quickly. For innocent people it quickly becomes doomsday. How can so many on TV write about it, complain about it, throw stones about it, but still ignore it.

I dont think that I am responsible. I have no personal debt and my finances are solid. I make no speculative or short-term investments. I am honest. If everyone was like me the world economy would be just fine and dandy.

As for helping other people, who should I help? Those who lend money foolishly against worthless paper or overpriced property? Those who make speculative short-term investments that only serve to ruin the long-term interests of the companies and markets concerned? Those who borrow foolishly because they cant wait to have the latest iPhone? Those who simply cant finance their own lifestyles because they are greedy and stupid and lazy?

Speaking as an industrious ant, why should I care about any of these witless grasshoppers?

[hobobo]

I gave up trying to second guess currency markets a long time ago - nowadays I keep what little cash I have in my home currency and change to Baht as needed. Over the long term it makes little difference, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

It is however true that, since the 1997 Asian crisis - when at one point that year the Baht was at nearly 49 to the USD, an almost 100% devaluation - the Baht has depreciated over time against the USD. Whether that will continue to be the case is a matter of opinion, about which, as is the way with economists, you will find little consensus. The dollar is still the World's no. 1 reserve currency. Will that continue, or will America's $90tn debt cause the USD to finally implode? Will certain EVENTS in Thailand affect the situation? Take your pick.

The US debt at the end of 2014 was a tad over $18 trillion. Check a funny graphs below:

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/us_debt/us_debt.html

[chicowoodduck]

Geez, everyone is the expert....No One Knows what will happen....but just in case....I shipped all my baht back to the US over a year ago and sleep pretty good these days....don't try to over think the whole process....it just makes matters worse...?

[bazza40]

The purchasing power of the baht should not change much for local goods and services. I haven't seen the cost of a massage or a meal in a local restaurant change significantly. On the other hand, the cost of imported goods could well increase.

I think it's good to buy some gold here as a currency hedge. Please note, it's not an investment as gold earns no income.

Most of my funds are in Australian dollars. The US dollar is a reserve currency propped up with sham statistics such as employment levels and P/E ratios on large American companies. It's anyone's guess as to whether the charade can continue, or whether creditors will say the hell with it and pull the plug.

[bazza40]

I've been reading some articles lately saying the fed may be forced to raise rates faster and quicker than anticipated. The US economy is doing quite well.

http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/201512046926/us-employers-added-211000-jobs-in-november-update.aspx

Yes, and who writes those articles and at the behest of whom?

The combined private and public debt in America is about $60 trillion.

When a casual employee in a coffee shop working a couple of hours a week counts in the employment statistics exactly the same as a 60 hours per week executive, it paints a rosy picture.

When banks use fiat money created by Quantitative Easing to buy shares and bonds, driving up prices, does that mean the share or bond becomes more valuable?

When shale oil companies have to keep producing simply to pay the interest on loans used to drill wells with rapid depletion rates, does the economy as a whole benefit?

It depends on which media outlet you want to ask. However, when you have 46 million Americans on food stamps, IMHO that does not indicate an economy which is "doing quite well".

[Capt Rob]

The world has gone completely mad. We're all responsible. Nobody can point any fingers. There's a lot more to all this than the haters griping about Thailand or their miserable, meaningless lives in general. We need to start helping each other and quickly. For innocent people it quickly becomes doomsday. How can so many on TV write about it, complain about it, throw stones about it, but still ignore it.

I dont think that I am responsible. I have no personal debt and my finances are solid. I make no speculative or short-term investments. I am honest. If everyone was like me the world economy would be just fine and dandy.

As for helping other people, who should I help? Those who lend money foolishly against worthless paper or overpriced property? Those who make speculative short-term investments that only serve to ruin the long-term interests of the companies and markets concerned? Those who borrow foolishly because they cant wait to have the latest iPhone? Those who simply cant finance their own lifestyles because they are greedy and stupid and lazy?

Speaking as an industrious ant, why should I care about any of these witless grasshoppers?

I think nithisa had in mind helping "innocent " folk ie those at the low end of the food chain not the would be mega players

[Don Mega]

Last I looked my 1 baht was still worth 1 baht.

[chilli42]

You may obtain a more useful response if you were to lay out the underlying assumptions behind why you believe the Baht will devalue further relative to the US$. If you really believe the Baht will weaken further then you should put your money in dollars. If you are looking for stability, is there a third currency that might better protect your cash? Finally, you will never have access to information that will allow you to make informed decisions on currency fluctuations over a short term time frame .... don't even try. You can make "reasonable" forecasts over the long term so suggest you start there or you will end up making knee jerk decisions driven by the news of the day which is heavily manipulated by those who profit from currency fluctuation.

Predicting currency fluctuations is not for the faint of heart. If you can find someone who can then you are well on your way to being a billionaire.

My own current thinking is that, barring a catastrophic event, the Baht has seen the worst of its devaluation already and that the US dollar will gradually weaken.

[KOZMO]

I've been reading some articles lately saying the fed may be forced to raise rates faster and quicker than anticipated. The US economy is doing quite well.

http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/201512046926/us-employers-added-211000-jobs-in-november-update.aspx

Yes, and who writes those articles and at the behest of whom?

The combined private and public debt in America is about $60 trillion.

When a casual employee in a coffee shop working a couple of hours a week counts in the employment statistics exactly the same as a 60 hours per week executive, it paints a rosy picture.

When banks use fiat money created by Quantitative Easing to buy shares and bonds, driving up prices, does that mean the share or bond becomes more valuable?

When shale oil companies have to keep producing simply to pay the interest on loans used to drill wells with rapid depletion rates, does the economy as a whole benefit?

It depends on which media outlet you want to ask. However, when you have 46 million Americans on food stamps, IMHO that does not indicate an economy which is "doing quite well".

46 Million on food stamps are mostly blacks and Obama's illegals !!!!!

[elgenon]

When the US starts raising interest rates, hot money that flowed here back in the QE period, will flow back to the US for the higher yields, and higher security. The US dollar will probably strengthen, and the Baht weaken. Hopefully, Thailand will take measures to ensure it doesn't weaken too much!

There may be a nominal rate increase in December, but it's doubtful that there will be much more any time soon. Realistically the market, not the Fed, sets rates and it has already priced in the small increase. The dollar may still rise but I doubt it will be because of the Fed, at least in the near term.

Currency rates tend to be cyclical & self-correcting over time. Many people seem to pursue the buy-high-and-sell-low mentality with currency and stocks. Everyone who hoarded the Euro for its strength and safety when it was strong now find themselves on the wrong side of the trade.

I've been reading some articles lately saying the fed may be forced to raise rates faster and quicker than anticipated. The US economy is doing quite well.

http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/201512046926/us-employers-added-211000-jobs-in-november-update.aspx

Please explain why the Fed would be "forced" to raise rates, The Fed wants to raise rates to get inflation up and to have ammo for the next recession. Don't know why they will be forced.to raise rates.

[DaveBKK]

The US debt at the end of 2014 was a tad over $18 trillion. Check a funny graphs below:

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/us_debt/us_debt.html

Meh, and GDP is a bit over 17 Trillion. The vast majority of the debt is future social security obligations. It can be changed with a few alterations to benefits....politically difficult, but if things get out of hand it'll be done. It's like having a salary of 80k a year and still owing 80k on your house and car. Not unmanageable

[ChrisKC]

I think the time to change anything is when the times are certain, not uncertain. Nobody really knows what will happen in the future. Much about the decision you make will be how long you keep to one strategy before you want to change it again.

[asdecas]

I gave up trying to second guess currency markets a long time ago - nowadays I keep what little cash I have in my home currency and change to Baht as needed. Over the long term it makes little difference, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

It is however true that, since the 1997 Asian crisis - when at one point that year the Baht was at nearly 49 to the USD, an almost 100% devaluation - the Baht has depreciated over time against the USD. Whether that will continue to be the case is a matter of opinion, about which, as is the way with economists, you will find little consensus. The dollar is still the World's no. 1 reserve currency. Will that continue, or will America's $90tn debt cause the USD to finally implode? Will certain EVENTS in Thailand affect the situation? Take your pick.

The US debt at the end of 2014 was a tad over $18 trillion. Check a funny graphs below:

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/us_debt/us_debt.html

I am happy to amend my comment to "over US$60tn", which as of 2014 was the combined public and private debt. In any event make no mistake, this is not only unsustainable but un-repayable.

Edited December 7, 2015 by asdecas

[Gutenberg]

Nobody really knows what will happen in the future.

Surely not for the near future but since we are stuck in the compound interest + debt system, in the distant future, we are looking at something like in the movie 'Time'.

Edited December 7, 2015 by Gutenberg

[swissie]

I gave up trying to second guess currency markets a long time ago - nowadays I keep what little cash I have in my home currency and change to Baht as needed. Over the long term it makes little difference, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

It is however true that, since the 1997 Asian crisis - when at one point that year the Baht was at nearly 49 to the USD, an almost 100% devaluation - the Baht has depreciated over time against the USD. Whether that will continue to be the case is a matter of opinion, about which, as is the way with economists, you will find little consensus. The dollar is still the World's no. 1 reserve currency. Will that continue, or will America's $90tn debt cause the USD to finally implode? Will certain EVENTS in Thailand affect the situation? Take your pick.

The US debt at the end of 2014 was a tad over $18 trillion. Check a funny graphs below:

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/us_debt/us_debt.html

I am happy to amend my comment to "over US$60tn", which as of 2014 was the combined public and private debt. In any event make no mistake, this is not only unsustainable but un-repayable.

So when will the credit-pyramid collapse?

ANSWER: When tax-revenue can no more cover the annual interest-cost of the outstanding debt. (Historically an interest rate of 3 to 5 % above inflation is "normal".)

When this stage is reached, then it will happen. Until this stage is reached, we have some time left. So, let's enjoy the ride on this diabolical merry go round as long as it lasts.

Cheers.