Israel Versus Hezbollah, Round Three?

[Morch]

Israel is clearly gearing up for retaliation form Hezbollah after deliberately provoking them

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/880590-israel-to-deploy-new-missile-interceptor/

Another war looming for domestic electorate consumption led by strongman Netanyahu.

Clearly.....how?

Is it your "expert" opinion that the development of a new weapon system (years in the making) was meticulously planned to coincide with current developments?

Do you have anything to support this outlandish notion other than your own opinion? Same goes goes for stating that the aim the attack was to provoke Hezbollah?

Wouldn't be the first time, after an Israeli air strike, that you foresee a major escalation. Most times, these fail to materialize. Same goes for military campaigns and operations being a voter winning ticket in recent Israeli politics - clueless at best.

I would think it's the other way around: David's Sling is ready to deploy, Hezbollah is tied up in Syria, lets give them a nudge, see how hard they can retaliate. If they do, we're ready for them and can then do what we do best, ie cry victim for the global media and act out our aggression "in self defence".

It has certainly happened like that in the past, with great results from the Israeli point of view.

You think the system is ready to deploy, the quoted OP says "Israel plans to deploy its new medium-range missile interceptor by mid-2016.". The system will not be deployed within days, and full deployment (more than a single system) will be a matter of months, if not longer.

Other than imaginary musings, what does Israel stand to presently gain from a full scale escalation vs. Hezbollah? And what "great results from an Israeli point of view" did such confrontations achieve in the past? There is no major Israeli interest which will be served by a major confrontation. The notion that a war will be started for the dubious chances of some sympathy points is absurd.

Any action taken by Israel against Hezbollah is bound to "provoke" the latter. Then again, not taking any action against Hezbollah results in pretty much the same, sooner or later. I understand that some see defense as a matter of waiting until the other side hits you, but that is not how things work in the real world.

In all likelihood, the cons and pros of carrying out the attack were weighted, possible scenarios considered and a reasoned decision was taken. Hezbollah being tied up in Syria, and the current state of things within Lebanon were certainly factored in. If the attack was deemed necessary, then this was as good a timing as it comes. Hopefully, assessments will hold and the reaction (which is bound to be realized at some point) will limited, as happened last time. Granted, not much to hope for, but better than a wider conflagration.

Kuntar was not vacationing in Syria, but kept busy being involved in planning attacks on Israel, encouraging dissent and violence among Druze on both sides of the border. That this is a non-issue for some posters is alright, but guess Israel might had a different view on things.

[Morch]

Much in the way a stopped clock is right twice a day I suspect some of our esteemed members may for once be correct that Israel are about to take action to eliminate Hezbollah once and for all. I say this based on a wider view of the region where I suspect action to remove Iran's proxies from Syria, Yemen and Iraq will be followed by action to tackle Hezbollah and Iran itself. ISiS are currently being taken apart by special ops troops from many nations, not that this is headline news with the MSM yet.

The killing of Samir Kuntar, though welcome, was not in my opinion designed to provoke Hezbollah, who are imho dead men walking, though if they do respond in any meaningful way they may hasten their own demise.

There is nothing even remotely indicative of a planned major move by Israel against Hezbollah. There is nothing to be gained by waging an war that can't be won, with not obvious clear cut goals, and especially during winter time.

Like others, you simply project your personal wishes rather than looking at things as they are.

[Morch]

Much in the way a stopped clock is right twice a day I suspect some of our esteemed members may for once be correct that Israel are about to take action to eliminate Hezbollah once and for all. I say this based on a wider view of the region where I suspect action to remove Iran's proxies from Syria, Yemen and Iraq will be followed by action to tackle Hezbollah and Iran itself. ISiS are currently being taken apart by special ops troops from many nations, not that this is headline news with the MSM yet.

The killing of Samir Kuntar, though welcome, was not in my opinion designed to provoke Hezbollah, who are imho dead men walking, though if they do respond in any meaningful way they may hasten their own demise.

The killing of Samir Kuntar, though welcome, was not in my opinion designed to provoke Hezbollah, who are imho dead men walking, though if they do respond in any meaningful way they may hasten their own demise.

Tell that to the families of the dead IDF last time Israel took on the fully armed well trained soldiers of Hezbollah rather than the usual defenceless opposition.

It is very hard for a nation of 2nd passport holders to defeat an enemy of religious zealots.

If they have been hunting Kuntar for years, why now?

Leaving out the destruction visited on Lebanon, heavy casualties and damage taken by Hezbollah. About as accurate as a Hezbollah spokesperson would portray things. There are good reasons why Hezbollah did not opt for another round, and does not actively seek to open a full blown confrontation. Improved capabilities are all very nice, but they do come with a legitimization to hit you harder. As for religious zealots, recruiting seems to be troublesome, what with involvement in Syria taking its toll, and not much to show for it.

I don't know that Israel was actively "hunting" Kuntar for years. Took some time for his involvement with Hezbollah to be meaningful, and then its not as if these guys aren't taking precautions or that Israel can ignore all regional, political and military considerations (even if you claim it when it suits you). In recent years, Kuntar played a significant role in Hezbollah setting up shop on the Syrian-Israeli border, and building up a new semi-independent outfit. The why now would be down to circumstances allowing a successful strike, and him being deemed a credible enough threat, worthy of elimination.

[Morch]

Much in the way a stopped clock is right twice a day I suspect some of our esteemed members may for once be correct that Israel are about to take action to eliminate Hezbollah once and for all. I say this based on a wider view of the region where I suspect action to remove Iran's proxies from Syria, Yemen and Iraq will be followed by action to tackle Hezbollah and Iran itself. ISiS are currently being taken apart by special ops troops from many nations, not that this is headline news with the MSM yet.

The killing of Samir Kuntar, though welcome, was not in my opinion designed to provoke Hezbollah, who are imho dead men walking, though if they do respond in any meaningful way they may hasten their own demise.

The killing of Samir Kuntar, though welcome, was not in my opinion designed to provoke Hezbollah, who are imho dead men walking, though if they do respond in any meaningful way they may hasten their own demise.

Tell that to the families of the dead IDF last time Israel took on the fully armed well trained soldiers of Hezbollah rather than the usual defenceless opposition.

It is very hard for a nation of 2nd passport holders to defeat an enemy of religious zealots.

If they have been hunting Kuntar for years, why now?

Yeah, why now?

According to some, 8 years is past some imaginary statute of limitations for assassinating someone who got a free pass in a deal. A ridiculous idea, of course.

Why now?

Hezbollah will be asking that, and Israel will be hoping that the assumed answer is the most obvious: Because Hezbollah are tied up in Syria.

And maybe that has something to do with it.

Time will tell.

Maybe it is actually very simple and nasty: It's time to test David's Sling...give a nudge because they can't react with much. Lets see if the Sling works.

He did not get any free pass. You are making things up.

He was almost certainly taken out due to his current activities, not past deeds (although that's a bonus).

Hezbollah will probably have more of a clue as to his plans and activities, and would go wondering how Israel got wind of them, and how to improve security of its key personnel. They will carry out a "mandatory" retaliatory attack, which will probably not exceed limitations set by Iran (and Iran cannot maintain another front at this time).

Simple and nasty. What an apt description for the post above....

[Morch]

This seems like a particularly lousy time for the Israelis to be meddling in Syria. Syria is a Russian ally, and the Russians have been on a winning streak. South Ossetia, Crimea, Donetsk, now Syria. I don't see the Russians leaving Syria. Who is going to make them?

Americans, French, Canadians, Germans...

Russians and Syrians...

Israelis...

The Turks...

Those are just the air forces. Not counting the players on the ground, from "our" Kurds and FSA to "their" Hezbollah.

Too many players.

Too dangerous.

Russia is careful, but probably won't back down. Syria can't back down.

The Zionists now have their years-old dream of chaos among their enemies in Syria and Iraq. Time to leave well enough alone, and not meddle further. They have nothing to gain by amping up a Great-Power confrontation right next door.

And they have a lot to lose.

Meanwhile, in the real world:

Putin, Netanyahu agree in call to coordinate efforts to fight terrorism

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-israel-idUSKBN0U51T320151222

Netanyahu, Putin discuss fight against terrorism after Kuntar assassination

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4742991,00.html

[HikeFromLA]

This seems like a particularly lousy time for the Israelis to be meddling in Syria. Syria is a Russian ally, and the Russians have been on a winning streak. South Ossetia, Crimea, Donetsk, now Syria. I don't see the Russians leaving Syria. Who is going to make them?

Americans, French, Canadians, Germans...

Russians and Syrians...

Israelis...

The Turks...

Those are just the air forces. Not counting the players on the ground, from "our" Kurds and FSA to "their" Hezbollah.

Too many players.

Too dangerous.

Russia is careful, but probably won't back down. Syria can't back down.

The Zionists now have their years-old dream of chaos among their enemies in Syria and Iraq. Time to leave well enough alone, and not meddle further. They have nothing to gain by amping up a Great-Power confrontation right next door.

And they have a lot to lose.

Meanwhile, in the real world:

Putin, Netanyahu agree in call to coordinate efforts to fight terrorism

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-israel-idUSKBN0U51T320151222

Netanyahu, Putin discuss fight against terrorism after Kuntar assassination

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4742991,00.html

From your Reuters article:

"Vladimir Putin stressed that there is no alternative to ... the continued and uncompromising fight against Islamic State and other extremist groups acting in Syria,"

Apparently, after the Israeli attack, Putin phoned Netanyahu and laid down the law. Netanyahu isn't quoted as saying anything.

From your Ynet article (what is that, an Israeli news site?):

"Israel and Russia have set up a communications channel to make sure their air forces do not clash with each other, though it was not known whether the alleged Israeli strike on Kuntar had been announced to the Russians ahead of time."

Haha so they had a comm channel but the Israelis didn't choose to use it. Now we know why Putin picked up the phone and called.

PS In the real world, official sources often couch things in diplomatic language.

Edited December 24, 2015 by HikeFromLA