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Phuket property glut?


jamie obda

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Mysteron’s definition of the existence of a glut in the Phuket property housing unit market is defined by the specifications of what he is looking to personally buy. If it’s not available then there can be no glut.

 

His logic is simply convoluted and he argues it just for the sake of arguing.

 

From his other posts it’s reasonable to guess he’s a fairly intelligent guy so in this case i’d Say that he’s got way too much time in his hands and just having a bit of fun pushing people’s buttons. Alternatively he’s too obstinate to fess up and admit he’s wrong so he’s just going to contunue digging the hole until people get bored with him.

 

Either way its not worth arguing with him or trying to school him.

Edited by AJBangkok
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Some good posts here, yet the few usual negative and/or wrong understanding.  People the world over which miss out on increasing assets almost always later find reasons why they did the right thing so to justify. For sure more then a few Phuket properties are to say the least stale & not moving as there does appear to be an oversupply of such. 

 

Yet, Phuket is far more then just a "holiday destination", retirees keep coming in droves and many have money. Not least because of the low/no tax base, excellent climate/food besides health care & lower cost of living. Surely people advanced in age (above 50, is the official retirement age here) often have more money/capital then younger folks.  What nobody addresses is the oversupply being because soo many people know nothing about different investments alternatives, except buying/building a nice house/condo.  Call it a real market inefficiency, because it results in over-bidding on an asset class, which in time by definition does results in a quasi glut.  Economist called this a "savings intermediary mis-allocation of resources".   In capitalistic societies its assumed owners of capital will just about always make rational decisions based on what is a best investment, where of course quality of life also commands is a big factor.  Phuket went rather amiss on this, as many expats/retirees/investors bid up -and build up and owned up- only on property as they have no clue about financial asset investment alternatives.  10 to 20 years later these skewed decisions resulted in an overbuilt property situation on average dwellings. 

Realize, well beyond volatile stocks there are diversified property and infrastructure funds which pay Q. interest, at an annual rate of 6-7.5%, besides have lower withholding Thai taxes then the 1-2% interest paid by Thai banks. These can be legally owned by foreigners, can be divided by selling off or buying more in small amounts (can't do that with property) are private and in a currency which has appreciated.  To those which know nothing about it, as they rightly claim, there are ways to become savvy but you have to get beyond assuming we all "got the birthright to free information on the internet".

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13 minutes ago, AJBangkok said:

Alternatively he’s too obstinate to fess up and admit he’s wrong so he’s just going to contunue digging the hole until people get bored with him.

 

Either way its not worth arguing with him or trying to school him.

Well put, and I favour your point above.

 

As regards "obstinate", it is interesting to note that on this thread there are 26 posts which in one way or another support his stance, whilst 107 posts disagree with it...…

 

In another post someone has done a little digging around and reckons there are poss 8,000 properties on the market here. Seems high but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

And perhaps this post from early on in the thread (Jan 2016) sums it up well:-

 

A POST FROM JAN 2016

 

There is no doubt there is a property glut in Phuket in spite of what some posters here say as they obviously have a vested interest in saying so.

 

They like to talk things up (probably in the hope of getting a naive newcomer to sign a buying contract).

 

Too much over-building, poor infrastructure, no rule of law, daily hazards unknown in the west, many, many more - but we who live here know the truth.

 

My neighbours have several nice beach side properties to rent ...1 bedroom unoccupied 8 months...2 bedroom unoccupied 7 months...3 bedroom unoccupied 13 months - another neighbour let her 3 bedroom to a teacher family with a 20% rent discount & 15% discount on water, electric & internet...but some on here persist in continually talking up the market here.. they have their reasons but there is such a thing as " look out of the window " economics, so look out the window & see reality.

 

I just came back from a swim at the beach ~ it's only a 5-6 minute walk away, plus I also have a nice swimming pool here & a roomy place; all for a very reasonable rent....so why buy!

 

The $$$ I don't spend on property ownership here are far better employed making real money protected by rule of law in a jurisdiction where justice prevails so ………I prefer to sleep peacefully at night knowing I've invested smartly, but if you want to gamble it's your choice.

 

Add to this the top quality penthouse apartment, with huge sea views and just metres from the sea (quality location) which friends bought for 18 million baht, yet it would not sell a couple of years later, so they settled on 11 million baht, and the picture is very clear, but obviously not for those with a vested interest in talking the market up, or obstinate folk, or both!

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20 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Is it possible your friends paid to much to begin with, the property was never worth 18 million ? Lots of properties and new developments have outrageous prices, often not realistic and way above what properties actually change hands for. 

I see it everyday in my current condo block, Condos change hands for an average 2 million Baht, but it doesn't stop people advertising (and sometimes getting) the same condo's for 3 million baht. The 3 million baht listings fill up the internet sites for years, sometimes someone gets off the plane and pays the 3 million, then wonders why they cant sell it for 3m 2 years later.

 

 

Brand new prestigious penthouse, 3-4 beds, private pool, gymnasium, huge sea view in quality location Peter, and these business-owner folks own property elsewhere and are savvy, so doubt they were ripped off greatly!

 

Even if they should have paid 14 m for example, getting 11 m in a resale 2 yrs later, does not infer a bubbling market here in any-ones terms.

Edited by xylophone
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Right on Peterw42  -while chosing to ignore how the Thai Baht appreciated 15-20% overall, and more vs. AU$.  Also, they had for full great use in this time. Further, they chose not to tone down the big property purchase with a balance, say invest in a SET fund, which appreciated nicely over past few years, in Baht and in ones' full foreign name.

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6 hours ago, xylophone said:

Ah, reverting to the old schoolboy ploy of using the plural, i.e. "we" certainly puts a new spin on it, when in fact the majority of posters tend to agree that there is a property glut in Phuket. "We" indeed!!

 

In fact here it has often been called the "wild west of the property market" and for good reason.
 
I don't know how else to describe a market in which a 990 apartment development, The Park, has gone bust, losing investors their money, or the Ace condominiums development of 190 condos has also gone bust losing investors their money, not to mention the Crystal Patong remaining empty and other part finished developments in the property market, some of which can be seen on the "derelict buildings" thread. Many would argue that they speak to the state of the market here and I agree.
 
These were sold "off plan", something you referred to when trying to put a positive spin this market just a few posts back. Oops!
 
I don't know how thoughtful and balanced one has to be with regards to those collapses, and the many unsold properties, because I see as it a sign of an overheated market with a property glut, however you are in the market of selling property, so of course you have to talk the market up.
 
As for me, I have no bias one way or the other, I just see it for what it is and it is very plain to see, and as another has said, picking out the occasional "high quality" example and denigrating others living in average to good quality properties really doesn't portray a "thoughtful, balanced approach" from you.
 
You also referred to another poster as living in a backstreet and having a chip on his shoulder, again hardly a "thoughtful, balanced approach", and in the opinion of that poster and me, that was meant as an insult.
 
So all the while there are people like you who are in the market of selling property and trying to put a positive spin on it to help your cause, there will be level-headed people like me who have been here for many years and see the market as it really is, and indeed who have bought and sold profitably in it, so no "negative bias" from my perspective.
 
In addition, a look through the real estate agents listings tells a story of many hundreds, if not thousands of properties for sale, with many remaining unsold for years – – and that is the reflection of the market, laid out for all to see, with no biases whatsoever.
 
Have a lovely day dear Mysterion and "we" sincerely hope that you are successful in your property selling endeavours as it may do something to help clear up the glut, who knows?
 
 

Welcome back Xylophone!!

 

Meet the new Xylophone, same as the old Xylophone. Lol! 

 

Your views on property may be misguided, stubbornly and overtly negatively biased, and often contradictory, but there is always at least some value in varying perspectives if we dig deep enough. 

 

Thanks for not giving us the silent treatment anymore :))

 

 

 

 

Edited by Mysterion
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1 hour ago, thaistocks said:

Right on Peterw42  -while chosing to ignore how the Thai Baht appreciated 15-20% overall, and more vs. AU$.  Also, they had for full great use in this time. Further, they chose not to tone down the big property purchase with a balance, say invest in a SET fund, which appreciated nicely over past few years, in Baht and in ones' full foreign name.

Agreed.

 

There seems to be allot of “ignoring” of the positives by a few of the usual suspects on this thread, as they try to spin their web of negativity against the facts.

 

They repeat, rinse, repeat etc the same anecdotes, without any facts to back them up, and thats actually very sad. 

 

Lets bring the focus back to the facts...

- above average quality units, and above average quality locations are doing well. A positive indicator

- offplan prices are at all times highs. A postiive indicator.

- below average quality units, and below average quality locations are deservedly stagnant. 

 

It would be great if any of the perma-bears here could actually debate the facts as outlined above, but facts are the worst fear of the uninformed or those trying to mislead.

 

 

Edited by Mysterion
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With near 30 years broad investor experience and in Phuket, I can say: Agreed with your conclusions Mysterion

, except one should add any sort of oversupply regarding average non-Wow properties in Phuket, these investors should part blame themselves in over-favoring property/real estate vs. other saving alternatives. And surely so, some got caught in a bind which also means there are likely some properties on the market here which are "bargains which go begging".

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3 hours ago, Mysterion said:

Welcome back Xylophone!!

 

Meet the new Xylophone, same as the old Xylophone. Lol! 

 

Your views on property may be misguided, stubbornly and overtly negatively biased, and often contradictory, but there is always at least some value in varying perspectives if we dig deep enough. 

 

Thanks for not giving us the silent treatment anymore :))

 

 

 

 

Dear Mysterion,  thanks again for your repetitious rant, however the majority disagree with your posts, and this from another poster sums you up very well, and nothing I can add to it really...….

 

Mysteron’s definition of the existence of a glut in the Phuket property housing unit market is defined by the specifications of what he is looking to personally buy. If it’s not available then there can be no glut.

 

His logic is simply convoluted and he argues it just for the sake of arguing.

 

From his other posts it’s reasonable to guess he’s a fairly intelligent guy so in this case i’d Say that he’s got way too much time in his hands and just having a bit of fun pushing people’s buttons. Alternatively he’s too obstinate to fess up and admit he’s wrong so he’s just going to contunue digging the hole until people get bored with him.

 

Either way its not worth arguing with him or trying to school him.

 

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5 hours ago, thaistocks said:

Right on Peterw42  -while chosing to ignore how the Thai Baht appreciated 15-20% overall, and more vs. AU$.  Also, they had for full great use in this time. Further, they chose not to tone down the big property purchase with a balance, say invest in a SET fund, which appreciated nicely over past few years, in Baht and in ones' full foreign name.

The subject of a property glut is different from currency movements or investing in the SET, they are not interdependent, although owning stocks in ones own name does have a nice comfort factor to it.

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19 hours ago, Squaready said:


Not sure where the insult is there?

He/she has not said anything insulting about “long term renters living in monthly hotel rooms on nanai”. He appears to be questioning their circumstances or perspective for the views they expressed, just like the previous posters questioned him on his occupation and location.


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What he actually said about Psimbo was...………..

 

"Let us guess....are you another long term renter living in a monthly hotel room in the back streets of soi nanai with extensive experience and knowledge of the Phuket property market, and a chip on your shoulder".

 

Reference to the back streets of a very average and old soi; sarcasm in suggesting that as a long term renter he has no knowledge of the Phuket property market, and suggesting that the poster has a chip on his shoulder (because he rents and can't afford to buy an upmarket property). 

 

Don't know where you hail from, but in most thinking people's minds, that is meant as an insult, whereas you posted your sanitised version...….. I wonder why?

 

 

 

 

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The subject of a property glut is different from currency movements or investing in the SET, they are not interdependent, although owning stocks in ones own name does have a nice comfort factor to it.


I am a casual observer of this thread but I felt the need to step in here to correct your erroneous statement.

The foreign exchange market directly and significantly impacts the gain/loss/attractiveness for foreign investors buying property in Thailand or anywhere else in the world.

Property buyers need to be fully aware of this.

Thats all, hope it helps clarify things for those that are following the thread.


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Mysteron’s definition of the existence of a glut in the Phuket property housing unit market is defined by the specifications of what he is looking to personally buy. If it’s not available then there can be no glut.
 
His logic is simply convoluted and he argues it just for the sake of arguing.
 
From his other posts it’s reasonable to guess he’s a fairly intelligent guy so in this case i’d Say that he’s got way too much time in his hands and just having a bit of fun pushing people’s buttons. Alternatively he’s too obstinate to fess up and admit he’s wrong so he’s just going to contunue digging the hole until people get bored with him.
 
Either way its not worth arguing with him or trying to school him.


Wow. That is quite a judgment from someone who has not contributed anything meaningful to the discussion.



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We should start another thread, perhaps titled “Is Phuket Property grossly overpriced?”, where we discuss PE ratios and post properties for sale and comparable rental properties in the same condo complex.  That should keep the realtors busy for a while. [emoji6]


I like your idea.

It would be good to narrow down the analysis to specific areas of the market, rather than crudely trying to label the entire island



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Couldn't help but come back to comment on this rubbish...……….
 
Nonsense as per usual and the use of your so called example (There are actually many thousands of farang and thai owners/buyers that would argue against) is laughable.
 
As are your comments...…….. "so your examples taken from other countries are unfortunately invalid and out of context". I thought you would have been intelligent enough to see how the context applied to you and here, but obviously not! I can tell you but I can't help you understand.
 
As regards this...….One must look at individual locations and property type/quality to properly assess the health of real eatate anywhere".
 
I have proven you to be wrong by quoting property experts from around the world, but you are in denial because it doesn't fit your one eyed view.
 
The facts are that there are hundreds, if not thousands of unsold properties here. Peruse the RE websites to update yourself.
 
PS. Anyone reading this thread should understand that the previous poster has a vested interest in talking up the real estate market here. 
 
 


Just a friendly observation and suggestion Mr or Ms. Xylophone....

You seem obsessed with getting the last word in in every discussion/debate. Not sure why you feel the need to do that, but you do.

Yet your last words are usually just a regurgitation of your previous “last word”.

The silent majority of the thread is likely looking for accurate information on property investing rather than simple opinions.

As Mysterion politely said, in one of his posts, you and several others here routinely provided negative personal “anecdotes”, but i must honestly say i haven’t learned anything of real significance from you or them.

It would be helpful for all of us if you could kindly provide broad facts rather than pure speculation or peculiar anecdotes, if you plan to continue pursuing the “last word”.

Just sayin’


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2 hours ago, Squaready said:

 


Just a friendly observation and suggestion Mr or Ms. Xylophone....

You seem obsessed with getting the last word in in every discussion/debate. Not sure why you feel the need to do that, but you do.

Yet your last words are usually just a regurgitation of your previous “last word”.

The silent majority of the thread is likely looking for accurate information on property investing rather than simple opinions.

As Mysterion politely said, in one of his posts, you and several others here routinely provided negative personal “anecdotes”, but i must honestly say i haven’t learned anything of real significance from you or them.

It would be helpful for all of us if you could kindly provide broad facts rather than pure speculation or peculiar anecdotes, if you plan to continue pursuing the “last word”.

Just sayin’


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Lol! I thought i was the only one who noticed that. 

 

In all fairness to Xylophone and the two or three of his perma-bear crew , we gotta appreciate varying views on this topic.

 

Whether we like those views or not, we may learn something from those who disagree with us.

 

I say bring it on! At the end of the day, the facts will always win out. 

 

Cheers :-))

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Is it possible your friends paid to much to begin with, 

This is a big problem, and for many uninformed folks it will lead to expectations not being met .

 

IMHO, offplan prices are far too high. Resale prices are not cheap, but they are certainly more reasonable, and there may be some good buys for those prepared to do allot of research.

 

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3 hours ago, Squaready said:

 


I am a casual observer of this thread but I felt the need to step in here to correct your erroneous statement.

The foreign exchange market directly and significantly impacts the gain/loss/attractiveness for foreign investors buying property in Thailand or anywhere else in the world.

Property buyers need to be fully aware of this.

Thats all, hope it helps clarify things for those that are following the thread.


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Agreed 100%

 

This is fundamental to any international investment.

 

How could anyone in their right mind deny that FX is a very  significant factor for an international property market??? 

 

I encourage any foreign buyers looking at Phuket to please carefully consider your FX exposure prior to buying in Thailand or any another country.

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3 hours ago, Squaready said:

 


Wow. That is quite a judgment from someone who has not contributed anything meaningful to the discussion.



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Dear squaready,

 

There is not much reasoning to be had with some(you probably know who the three or four are) of the stubborn and/or uninformed folks here. Dont be surprised if you get attacked for no other reason than presenting an opposing perspective/facts.

 

That being said, its good to know rational folks like yourself  are following the mayhem! lol!!!

 

cheers :-)

 

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14 hours ago, thaistocks said:

Right on Peterw42  -while chosing to ignore how the Thai Baht appreciated 15-20% overall, and more vs. AU$.  Also, they had for full great use in this time. Further, they chose not to tone down the big property purchase with a balance, say invest in a SET fund, which appreciated nicely over past few years, in Baht and in ones' full foreign name.

I agree.

 

SET and baht have both been very strong.

 

In regards to phuket property, the strenght/weakness of baht has been a major driver or various flows from around the world.

 

As an example, in only the last 12 months USD based foreign buyers(usa, hong kong, uae etc)  would have made almost 10% gains(on paper) from baht appreciation alone.

Edited by Mysterion
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Agreed, currency appreciation is a real part of total (foreign to Thai) investor returns.  

Realize, most all expats go around bad mouthing the SET, to their own peril along with their no real understanding.  Its true its a wild (SET) market with plenty of speculators & manipulators, many inept brokers and so difficult to get valuable research & unbiased added value insights. Combine this with the ferang (felang) constant negativity and you got a perfect case made to justify in staying away.  Hence all that galore property investment, yes resulting in some cases an oversupply!   But like so many things in life,  this (SET negativity) is too one sighted often confusing the SET with the investor strategy...as there are surely some good companies, paying double or triple dividends compared to bank interest...and if you take a longer term view and can tolerate some ups and downs (another thing they don't teach) over time and with proper diversification you can generate superior returns...which is so key to keep up with inflation and create new wealth, which cash or savings in the banks just don't.  This has been long proven without any doubt, but don't expect to get advantages on that reading the local newspapers or listening to uninformed, non-professional nay sayers.  To be clear I am no way advocating this in any biased way, as I don't offer any subscriptions / memberships and so cannot/do not, benefit. Further, I could care less if anyone SET invests or not....just sharing some insights in good faith here.  It should also be stated that recently only largest cap stocks have moved on the SET, with most all smaller and mid cap stocks stuck in a groove.  Big cap Thai stocks are now as we call it "a crowded trade" ( i.e. over chased) and in time smaller/mid cap stocks will re-emerge.

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10 hours ago, Squaready said:

 


I am a casual observer of this thread but I felt the need to step in here to correct your erroneous statement.

The foreign exchange market directly and significantly impacts the gain/loss/attractiveness for foreign investors buying property in Thailand or anywhere else in the world.

Property buyers need to be fully aware of this.

Thats all, hope it helps clarify things for those that are following the thread.


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Please read my post carefully as I was commenting on the SUBJECT at hand, so to help you out...…….if the subject had been about foreign exchange, then no problems,; about the SET then no problems with your comment, but it wasn't.

 

Simple really.

 

On the other hand of course currency fluctuations affect gain/loss etc as happens in every market, but the subject was on a property glut here.

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10 hours ago, Squaready said:

You seem obsessed with getting the last word in in every discussion/debate. Not sure why you feel the need to do that, but you do.

As does Mysterion who has a vested interest in talking up the market, with his repetitive remarks. Or hadn't you noticed? Touche.

 

 

10 hours ago, Squaready said:

The silent majority of the thread is likely looking for accurate information on property investing rather than simple opinions.

The percentage of posts that disagree with the property seller is around 80% so the majority do seem to have an idea!

 

 

10 hours ago, Squaready said:

It would be helpful for all of us if you could kindly provide broad facts rather than pure speculation or peculiar anecdotes, if you plan to continue pursuing the “last word”.

I did present some broad facts a while ago, but the property seller said broad facts did not count here...….ie the broad facts showed a surplus of properties for sale, but he wanted only to focus on "truly good properties in truly good locations" and because some of those sold (which I agreed with) he declared there is no property glut. Took a minority situation and applied it broadly?

 

Look at the real estate agents listings if you want facts. Perhaps that will prove "helpful" to you.

 

Just sayin.

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10 hours ago, Squaready said:

 


Just a friendly observation and suggestion Mr or Ms. Xylophone....

You seem obsessed with getting the last word in in every discussion/debate. Not sure why you feel the need to do that, but you do.

Yet your last words are usually just a regurgitation of your previous “last word”.

The silent majority of the thread is likely looking for accurate information on property investing rather than simple opinions.

As Mysterion politely said, in one of his posts, you and several others here routinely provided negative personal “anecdotes”, but i must honestly say i haven’t learned anything of real significance from you or them.

It would be helpful for all of us if you could kindly provide broad facts rather than pure speculation or peculiar anecdotes, if you plan to continue pursuing the “last word”.

Just sayin’


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I share similar views as Xylophone but from a different perspective.

 

We have been coming at least twice a year to Phuket for 20 years and now spend much of the year here. As active rental owners and investors in our own country over that period of time we have looked very carefully at the property market here as we have in parts of the US.

 

In the 90's there were some real tempting bargain prices as far as new builds were concerned in comparison to what we were paying at home, but the difficulty of knowing all the nuances involved such as legal issues, how disputes are resolved, tenancy issues etc and on top of all that, not speaking Thai, put it in the too hard basket. It's hard enough being a successful landlord in your country of origin, where you know the ins and outs (or at least think you do).

 

We have never regretted the decision and have just spent 3 days showing a fellow significant investor the places around Patong that have never been finished, fallen down hillsides, barely occupied and some just abandoned.

 

Phuket property as .gamble may be OK, but it doesn't meet our successful, albeit conservative criteria. But neither does the sharemarkets.

 

But we love the place and are happy to pay our landlord our rent each year.

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Patong2 You seem to only have focused on Patong, which is in a world of its own. As pointed out in prev. post Sugar Palm Condo. example, right on the park and not on the beach has increased some 50% since opening besides the Baht vs. most other FX currencies appreciations. Perhaps you did not broaden your looking?   Even Shop-houses, ha  yet so flagged in horror 10-20 years ago, yet in many locations, notably Phuket town, have appreciated considerably.   But off your radar screen?  And no annual property taxes.  And contrary to in the US, here it did not collapse during the N. Atlantic induced global financial crisis.

 

You likely know next to nothing about the Thai share market...its human that "what we don't know we inherently don't like" (especially when it comes to ones' savings).  As a US based person you say, you likely also have the additional headache & audit trigger back home as to US taxes and complicated filings etc..which have nothing to do with merits on Thai property investing.   BTW, a strength or weakness of a currency where one invests is of paramount important metric to foreign investors and related to this discussion as a property glut does imply a financial risk and of loss (its the core)  and examples where given here on a property bought and sold for less, i.e. losses... implying a glut.

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Point being, any property losses here was perhaps substantially reduced by the Baht appreciation, the lack of annual prop. taxes and still decent rental income due to many deducing like  poster Patong2.

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1 hour ago, thaistocks said:

Point being, any property losses here was perhaps substantially reduced by the Baht appreciation, the lack of annual prop. taxes and still decent rental income due to many deducing like  poster Patong2.

How much to buy a 35sm studio at this much vaunted Sugar Palm?

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If baht appreciation is being bandied about to justify what good returns these homebuyers had, then one would have to assume that now is not a good time to buy due to the relative strength of the baht.

 

it cuts both ways

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