Phuket property glut?

[Mysterion]

7 hours ago, thaistocks said:

Also, unlike many places in the world, the Phuket housing market is not financially over-leveraged (i.e. little bank loans) which means sellers are not forced to walk away, or so called forced sold out,  and this is likely the biggest reasons why we not see a glut (however one wants to define it) resulting in an across the board price dumping.  This is rarely mentioned, but Phuket real estate is barely bank mortgaged...so owners can hold on if they want

Well said.

 

As i mentioned in a previos post, Phuket is overwhelmingly a holiday market, and that tends to create less liquidity.

 

Just like many holiday markets around the world, most foreigners have bought holiday homes here and paid for them in full without mortgages.

 

They may use the properties personally once a year or every couple of years, or only lease them out during high-season, and keep them empty 80% of the time.

 

For a variety of reasons, many owners are comfortable just holding properties that are empty most of the time, and thus there are very few truly motivated “bargains” to be found here.

 

[xylophone]

 

 

1 hour ago, Mysterion said:

You are contradicting yourself with that statement. However,, within your overall argument you have thankfully changed your tune to acknowledge that anything above “average everyday” property is not in a glut, and by definition recognizing that there  is no “general” glut in the market. 

No contradiction at all, in fact my argument remains solid, this esp as the amount of "quality properties in truly good locations" as stated by you, are in the minority compared to the number of other properties in/on the market, so in fact there is a general glut of properties in the market, by definition meaning a majority of properties constitute that glut.

 

 

1 hour ago, Mysterion said:

Generalizations tend to be very blunt instruments for any uninformed investors that may be following this thread. It would be more helpful for you to avoid blanket statements denigrating an entire market.

 

The generalisation in fact comes from you by promoting the fact that because a minority of properties, which fit your description of, "truly good properties in quality locations", do sell, then that applies to the market in general, therefore there is no glut. But they are not reflective of the market in general. And I have already stated that there always will be top end properties that sell despite the poor state of a market, as referenced to my Rolls-Royce analogy (true in fact).

 

There are many farangs who came here looking to buy somewhere in which to live, and in their mind they were investing in Phuket property, but now they come to sell them they can't, and please don't apply a generalisation to them with regards to the quality of their properties, because to quote you, "generalizations tend to be very blunt instruments for any uninformed investors that may be following this thread".

 

However I suspect that your angle is in regards to the "investment buyers", whereas mine is on the market as a whole.

 

The market for investment buyers is, IMO, well overhyped as I have mentioned in another post, whereby owners trying to rent out these investment properties, for the returns which were initially mooted, have been very disappointed, or they sign up for terms which seem "speculative" to say the least and these may well not be worth the paper they are printed on as time progresses. 

 

Indeed the owners of the apartments/condos in one particular large and fairly recent development are suffering because the majority of the apartments in that development are empty for a vast majority of the time, hence cutting rates by almost half if someone enquires.

 

But then again you will revert to your "quality properties in truly good locations" to suggest that they too bought "poorly".

 

Again your description does not describe the state of the overall/general property market here.

[Mysterion]

Sorry dulplicate

[Mysterion]

24 minutes ago, xylophone said:

 

 

No contradiction at all, in fact my argument remains solid, this esp as the amount of "quality properties in truly good locations" as stated by you, are in the minority compared to the number of other properties in/on the market, so in fact there is a general glut of properties in the market, by definition meaning a majority of properties.

 

 

The generalisation in fact comes from you by promoting the fact that because a minority of properties, which fit your description of, "truly good properties in quality locations", do sell, then that applies to the market in general, therefore there is no glut. But they are not reflective of the market in general. And I have already stated that there always will be top end properties that sell despite the poor state of a market, as referenced to my Rolls-Royce analogy (true in fact).

 

There are many farangs who came here looking to buy somewhere in which to live, and in their mind they were investing in Phuket property, but now they come to sell them they can't, and please don't apply a generalisation to them with regards to the quality of their properties, because to quote you, "generalizations tend to be very blunt instruments for any uninformed investors that may be following this thread".

 

However I suspect that your angle is in regards to the "investment buyers", whereas mine is on the market as a whole.

 

The market for investment buyers is, IMO, well overhyped as I have mentioned in another post, whereby owners trying to rent out these investment properties, for the returns which were initially mooted, have been very disappointed, or they sign up for terms which seem "speculative" to say the least and these may well not be worth the paper they are printed on as time progresses. 

 

Indeed the owners of the apartments/condos in one particular large and fairly recent development are suffering because the majority of the apartments in that development are empty for a vast majority of the time, hence cutting rates by almost half if someone enquires.

 

But then again you will revert to your "quality properties in truly good locations" to suggest that they too bought "poorly".

 

Again your description does not describe the state of the overall/general property market here.

You have contradicted yourself and generalized again Xylo.

 

I must admit it is getting tiresome trying to help you back out of the stubbornly biased unreasonable corners you have painted yourself into.

 

As said before, at the end of the day, the market is rightly telling us that certain “average or below- average” existing properties are not in desireable locations and/or the quality is not good and the price is not right.....and visa-versa for other properties.

 

In addition, offplan property development prices have probably never been higher. 

 

You can like it or not Xylophone, but the facts tell us that there is not a general “glut” in Phuket property.

 

 

[AJBangkok]

13 hours ago, Mysterion said:

You can like it or not Xylophone, but the facts tell us that there is not a general “glut” in Phuket property.

 

I did notice you left the word “market “ off that last sentence. Do you actually mean to state that “there is not a general glut in the Phuket property MARKET ? It’s a nice get out of jail free card if you don’t.

 

I’m afraid I have to agree with Xylophone on this one. We are talking about the Phuket property market as a whole not specific sectors. The Phuket property market is in a glut. There are more units for sale than buyers in the market. That’s a fact.

 

Some segments of the market may have greater demand than others but that doesn’t change the fact that the market is in a glut.

 

An anology would be, when an economy is in recession there are some segments of the economy that thrive, for example debt collection, but just because one segment is thriving doesn’t change the fact the the economy is in a recession.

 

 

[thaistocks]

Don't blame Phuket or Thailand. Expats have only themselves to blame if they are stuck in (Phuket) "me too" property which is often now unsellable.  As for years they just kept building and buying real estate at their own peril, while avoided all kinds of financial assets which in the past ten years have overall done soo well...besides have liquidity and divisibility!  Its these people which created the glut by overbidding, overbuilding and over-valuing only property.  But even if they bail-out below what they paid some years ago, the Thai Baht has been among the world strongest most stable currencies...and unlike in most Western countries there were no annual property taxes levied.   Compare this to Australia where high priced property is definitely peaking in value now (and a real risk this down move will only accelerate) even while on top the AU$ has lost over 25% vs. Thai Baht in just the past 4 years.

[xylophone]

31 minutes ago, AJBangkok said:

I’m afraid I have to agree with Xylophone on this one. We are talking about the Phuket property market as a whole not specific sectors. The Phuket property market is in a glut. There are more units for sale than buyers in the market. That’s a fact.

 

Some segments of the market may have greater demand than others but that doesn’t change the fact that the market is in a glut.

Thank you AJBangkok, as that is what I have been trying to say all along, however you put it in a nutshell and nailed it.

 

I was going to post this to Mysterion, but you beat me to it...........

 

In my opinion our viewpoints can be summed up as follows: –

 

I contend that there are hundreds of properties, if not thousands (as purported by other posters) on the market and for sale through real estate agents, and many of these have not moved for years, so it is my contention that there is an excess of unsold properties, therefore a glut.

 

Your contention is that because a few high-quality properties in top-quality locations are selling, there is no glut.

 

I know which one sounds more realistic to me.

 

[thaistocks]

Here is a better way to re-state what I intended to:

Don't blame Phuket or Thailand. [Regarding Phuket Property Glut]. Expats have only themselves to reflect on if they are locked in (Phuket) "me too" property which is difficult to sell.  As for years too many just kept building and buying housing & real estate at their own peril, while avoided all kinds of financial assets despite in the past ten years doing overall well...besides have liquidity and divisibility!  [I am here not addressing the legality of ownership, as most all are legal like condo's and 30 year registered leases -but want to restate the fact how most people/expats are financial assets illiterate]. These so created the glut by over exiting then bidding, overbuilding by over-valuing in their capital, only property vs. well performing financial assets over say past 10 years.  But even if they bail-out (or, alternatively just enjoy it longer) below what they paid some years ago, the Thai Baht has been among the world strongest most stable currencies...and unlike in most Western countries there were no annual property taxes levied while still relatively good rental income options.  Compare this to Australia where its high priced property is definitely peaking in value at present (and a real risk this down move will only accelerate) even while on top the AU$ has lost over 25% vs. Thai Baht, in just the past 4 years.

[Mysterion]

7 hours ago, AJBangkok said:

The Phuket property market is in a glut. There are more units for sale than buyers in the market. That’s a fact.

Thanks for the input AJ. Please keep in mind that there is always greater supply of units for sale vs buyers in every market in the world. That is a fact.

 

The analogy your provided doesn't work with real estate, as real estate is as they say  “the most local of all asset classes”,  unlike stocks or bonds or a broad economy. One must look at individual locations and property type/quality to properly assess the health of real eatate anywhere.

 

7 hours ago, AJBangkok said:

Some segments of the market may have greater demand than others but that doesn’t change the fact that the market is in a glut.

The error with this, just like Xylophones’ claim, is that it is a broad generalization and also contradictory. One cannot accurately generalize about a diverse market like phuket.

 

However, if one narrows it down considerably, they may argue that sales of below average units in below average locations are probably deservedly stagnant due to a combination of factors. This is a problem that often plagues growing holiday markets globally.

 

The facts are:  

- above-average units in above average locations are doing well.

- off-plan property prices also remain at all time highs.

- below average units in below average locations are probably stagnant

 

Cheers :-)

[Mysterion]

4 hours ago, thaistocks said:

unlike in most Western countries there were no annual property taxes levied while still relatively good rental income options.  Compare this to Australia where its high priced property is definitely peaking in value at present (and a real risk this down move will only accelerate) even while on top the AU$ has lost over 25% vs. Thai Baht, in just the past 4 years.

This is very well said.

 

Its amazing how some folks here(you know who you are) constantly complain that Thailand is not run as efficiently as their developed western country, yet they chose to rent and live in Thailand long term.

 

They complain that property prices in thailand are “too expensive”, yet they are usually only 1/4(or less) of the price of western countries, and with much lower sales tax and no property tax.

 

They experience schadenfreude at the thought of someone selling a property below their baht cost, yet not realizing that that person made a huge profit on the fx conversion.

 

They forget that property bubbles have formed all over the western world,  yields there are miniscule, and they will likely pop soon. Whereas most parts of Thailand has been relatively stable and relatively affordable.

 

 

[xylophone]

1 hour ago, Mysterion said:

One must look at individual locations and property type/quality to properly assess the health of real eatate anywhere.

Thank you for your input however misguided it may be. But then this may be because you have an interest in talking the market up here whereas others don't.

 

Quote. "One must look at individual locations and property type/quality to properly assess the health of real eatate anywhere".

 

That is just utter nonsense. The health of any real estate market is measured by the overall situation, that is why the likes of Standard and Poors, Lenders and Banks and other commentators talk of, "an RE glut in Washington and New York" (an actual quote) for example. And in Australia the Govt and other organisations, banks included, talk about a property boom in Victoria or a property decline in Perth. 

 

Note they don't single out individual properties, or even suburbs...…...they look at the overall/general situation.

 

That is the norm, whilst your view is not, but may be self-serving for you.

 

Quote. "One cannot accurately generalize about a diverse market like Phuket".

 

See above because you are wrong...…….and as AJBangkok has said,  I have to agree with Xylophone on this one. We are talking about the Phuket property market as a whole not specific sectors. Or even properties for that matter.

 

And market commentators do generalise about a diverse market everywhere, this if whatever is being discussed forms the majority of the subject under discussion (see my examples re. Standard & Poors, Victoria, Perth etc).

 

Anyway, enough of this, because you are not going to change your viewpoint, despite it being at odds with how the majority of other market commentators, institutions and lending organisations describe the real estate market in various areas and countries.

 

That is, they describe the general situation and do not focus on individual properties, especially if they are in the minority. A glut is a glut irrespective of there being a few gems to be had in an over supplied market.

 

The above leaves no doubt about how RE markets are described by experts and those in the know, but it probably won't stop you trying to explain otherwise.

 

Point proven, so no more from me. 

 

[Mysterion]

1 hour ago, xylophone said:

no more from me.  

 

Thank you for previous opinions and for saving us all from future continued stubborn negative bias, contradictions, and seemingly uninformed over the top generalized claims. 

 

There are actually many thousands of farang and thai owners/buyers that would argue against the generalized negative comments from you (and the usual suspects here) on the thread. Unlike a handful of talking heads here, they actually upvoted Phuket property with their cash as new buyers and owners.

 

Anyone could also add dozens of links to news stories that point out the specific strengths or weaknesses in those foreign markets that you quoted, so your examples taken from other countries are unfortunately invalid and out of context. 

 

The facts are the facts wether you like it or not, and the fact is that there is not a general “glut” in phuket property.

 

 

 

 

[xylophone]

1 hour ago, Mysterion said:

 

Thank you for previous opinions and for saving us all from future continued stubborn negative bias, contradictions, and seemingly uninformed over the top generalized claims. 

 

There are actually many thousands of farang and thai owners/buyers that would argue against the generalized negative comments from you (and the usual suspects here) on the thread. Unlike a handful of talking heads here, they actually upvoted Phuket property with their cash as new buyers and owners.

 

Anyone could also add dozens of links to news stories that point out the specific strengths or weaknesses in those foreign markets that you quoted, so your examples taken from other countries are unfortunately invalid and out of context. 

 

The facts are the facts wether you like it or not, and the fact is that there is not a general “glut” in phuket property.

 

 

 

 

Couldn't help but come back to comment on this rubbish...……….

 

Nonsense as per usual and the use of your so called example (There are actually many thousands of farang and thai owners/buyers that would argue against) is laughable.

 

As are your comments...…….. "so your examples taken from other countries are unfortunately invalid and out of context". I thought you would have been intelligent enough to see how the context applied to you and here, but obviously not! I can tell you but I can't help you understand.

 

As regards this...….One must look at individual locations and property type/quality to properly assess the health of real eatate anywhere".

 

I have proven you to be wrong by quoting property experts from around the world, but you are in denial because it doesn't fit your one eyed view.

 

The facts are that there are hundreds, if not thousands of unsold properties here. Peruse the RE websites to update yourself.

 

PS. Anyone reading this thread should understand that the previous poster has a vested interest in talking up the real estate market here. 

 

 

[Airalee]

I’m with Xylophone on this one.  And I don’t even live in Phuket.  

 

I’m also with the housing touts with regards to the “average” , ”me too” and whatever else they want to call the properties that aren’t selling.

 

Why might you ask?  Because most of the people on this board are “average people” who certainly can’t afford the sweeping view blufftop mansions whether we are talking about renting or purchasing and all the housing bull arguments now point to the fact that for us “everyday Joes”, renting is the better option!

 

So, enjoy selling houses to the fabulously wealthy people and stop badgering the rest of us to purchase all the substandard condos.

 

It’s all about the P/E ratio.

[Mysterion]

1 hour ago, xylophone said:

no more from me

We were hoping you were a man of your word, but alas you couldn't even keep quiet for an hour. LOL!!

 

25 minutes ago, xylophone said:

Couldn't help but come back to comment on this rubbish...……….

 

Nonsense as per usual and the use of your so called example (There are actually many thousands of farang and thai owners/buyers that would argue against) is laughable.

 

As are your comments...…….. "so your examples taken from other countries are unfortunately invalid and out of context". I thought you would have been intelligent enough to see how the context applied to you and here, but obviously not! I can tell you but I can't help you understand.

 

As regards this...….One must look at individual locations and property type/quality to properly assess the health of real eatate anywhere".

 

I have proven you to be wrong by quoting property experts from around the world, but you are in denial because it doesn't fit your one eyed view.

 

The facts are that there are hundreds, if not thousands of unsold properties here. Peruse the RE websites to update yourself.

 

PS. Anyone reading this thread should understand that the previous poster has a vested interest in talking up the real estate market here. 

 

Everyone is aware of your overtly negative biases, often contradictory and sensationalist statements regarding real estate in phuket dear Xylo.

 

That being said Xylo, we truly dont want you to stop commenting on the subject. On the contrary, please keep those comments coming. 

 

However, we would all appreciate, and probably benefit from, a more thoughtful, balanced approach from you(a long term Phuket tenant) on the subject of property ownership/investment in Phuket. 

 

BTW, as I admitted before,  I genuinely wish there was a “glut” in phuket property, so that I could buy some good stuff for bargain prices. Sadly, I am still waiting for those bargains to appear.

 

cheers :-) 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

[Mysterion]

33 minutes ago, Airalee said:

for us “everyday Joes”, renting is the better option!

Excellent! Landlords need  tenants, and tenants need landlords.

 

Thats good “yin-yang” in the world of property markets.

 

Cheers :-)

[Psimbo]

2 hours ago, Mysterion said:

 

Thank you for previous opinions and for saving us all from future continued stubborn negative bias, contradictions, and seemingly uninformed over the top generalized claims. 

 

There are actually many thousands of farang and thai owners/buyers that would argue against the generalized negative comments from you (and the usual suspects here) on the thread. Unlike a handful of talking heads here, they actually upvoted Phuket property with their cash as new buyers and owners.

 

Anyone could also add dozens of links to news stories that point out the specific strengths or weaknesses in those foreign markets that you quoted, so your examples taken from other countries are unfortunately invalid and out of context. 

 

The facts are the facts wether you like it or not, and the fact is that there is not a general “glut” in phuket property.

 

 

 

 

You clearly have a vested interest which is why you continue to post rubbish. 69 posts, the majority in here, would indicate that you have. Did you use to sell timeshares?

 

Thousands of properties up for sale and an rubbish 2nd hand market but you continue to big it up. Xylophone has nailed it.

 

Are you actually even in Phuket or just spouting your opinions from afar?

[Mysterion]

24 minutes ago, Psimbo said:

You clearly have a vested interest which is why you continue to post rubbish. 69 posts, the majority in here, would indicate that you have. Did you use to sell timeshares?

 

Thousands of properties up for sale and an rubbish 2nd hand market but you continue to big it up. Xylophone has nailed it.

 

Are you actually even in Phuket or just spouting your opinions from afar?

Lol!

 

Let us guess....are you another long term renter living in a monthly hotel room in the back streets of soi nanai with extensive experience and knowledge of the Phuket property market, and a chip on your shoulder?

 

My viewpoints are clearly balanced and unbiased.

 

Heres a little life tip for you...just because someone doesn't agree with you(about phuket property in this case) doesn't mean they have a vested interest against you.

 

Dispassionate debate is the key to knowledge.Please present us with facts so we can digest your brilliance.

[Airalee]

3 minutes ago, Mysterion said:

Lol!

 

Let us guess....are you another long term renter living in the back streets of soi nanai with extensive experience and knowledge of the Phuket property market, and a chip on your shoulder?

 

My viewpoints are clearly balanced and unbiased.

 

Heres a little life tip for you...just because someone doesn't agree with you(about phuket property in this case) doesn't mean they have a vested interest against you.

 

Dispassionate debate is the key to knowledge.Please present us with facts so we can digest your brilliance.

Insulting people is hardly “dispassionate debate”

[Mysterion]

4 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Insulting people is hardly “dispassionate debate”

+1

 

Exactly. You get it :))

[Airalee]

26 minutes ago, Mysterion said:

+1

 

Exactly. You get it :))

Then why are you insulting people?

[Squaready]

Then why are you insulting people?

I have been following this topic and don’t see any insults from Mysterions side, but i do see a several people writing insulting insinuations against him. He is been handling those provocations very respectfully and skillfully hehehe.





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[Airalee]

2 minutes ago, Squaready said:

 

I have been following this topic and don’t see any insults from Mysterions side, but i do see a several people writing insulting insinuations against him. He is been handling those provocations very respectfully and skillfully hehehe.





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I agree with you.  I saw them too from the guy above.  But for him to feed into it doesn’t help his case.

[Airalee]

“Let us guess....are you another long term renter living in a monthly hotel room in the back streets of soi nanai”

 

he even edited it to make it more insulting,

 

 

[Squaready]

Thank you for clarifying your thoughts.
 
I am pleased you also recognize that developers are not cutting prices, and you also recognize that the good quality existing properties in good locations are doing well.
 
I would agree with you that lower quality properties in sub-prime locations are stagnant if not in “glut”. Lots of questionable stuff has been built in poor locations over the years with the erroneous hope that “if we build it, they will come”.
 
As such, it appears we both recognize that there is not an island-wide “glut” in phuket property, but there are issues in some lower quality properties in sub-prime locations.
 
Cheers :-)
 
 
 
 
 

I mostly agree with what Mysterion has been saying about the health of the various Phuket property sectors in this and other threads. This quote sums it up well.

Too much one-sided negativity is not helpful, and too much blind positivity is also bad.

He is definitely more balanced in providing an overview of the good/bad of the various market segments.

Thanks for your views Mysterion! We need a balanced perspective to get the real picture.



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[Squaready]

“Let us guess....are you another long term renter living in a monthly hotel room in the back streets of soi nanai”
 
he even edited it to make it more insulting,
 
 

Not sure where the insult is there?

He/she has not said anything insulting about “long term renters living in monthly hotel rooms on nanai”. He appears to be questioning their circumstances or perspective for the views they expressed, just like the previous posters questioned him on his occupation and location.


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[Squaready]

A shop-house may be empty or appear unoccupied for numerous reasons. My wife and her brother own 3 shop-houses, for anyone driving past they would appear unoccupied etc. My wife stores her stock for her market stalls in one, brother stores stock for his business in another and 3rd is rented to another business as a workshop (the shutter remains closed) the rooms upstairs are casually rented to Thai friends and acquaintances. 
 
The same for Condos, just because there is no towels drying on the balcony, doesn't mean its unsold, unoccupied or unused. I have an empty condo next to me, owned by a sweet old Thai lady who keeps it empty to give to her grand children one day. Condo across  the hall is owned by an old Italian guy who literally visits for one month each year.
 
Unless you are the owner, developer or work at the land office, people have no idea the status of a condo block or row of shop-houses. 
 
 

I see allot of that also. Must be nice to be able to afford a second or third property and able to let it sit empty until when you need it.


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[xylophone]

10 hours ago, Mysterion said:

We were hoping you were a man of your word, but alas you couldn't even keep quiet for an hour. LOL!!

 

Everyone is aware of your overtly negative biases, often contradictory and sensationalist statements regarding real estate in phuket dear Xylo.

 

That being said Xylo, we truly dont want you to stop commenting on the subject. On the contrary, please keep those comments coming. 

 

However, we would all appreciate, and probably benefit from, a more thoughtful, balanced approach from you(a long term Phuket tenant) on the subject of property ownership/investment in Phuket. 

 

BTW, as I admitted before,  I genuinely wish there was a “glut” in phuket property, so that I could buy some good stuff for bargain prices. Sadly, I am still waiting for those bargains to appear.

 

cheers :-) 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

Ah, reverting to the old schoolboy ploy of using the plural, i.e. "we" certainly puts a new spin on it, when in fact the majority of posters tend to agree that there is a property glut in Phuket. "We" indeed!!

 

In fact here it has often been called the "wild west of the property market" and for good reason.

 

I don't know how else to describe a market in which a 990 apartment development, The Park, has gone bust, losing investors their money, or the Ace condominiums development of 190 condos has also gone bust losing investors their money, not to mention the Crystal Patong remaining empty and other part finished developments in the property market, some of which can be seen on the "derelict buildings" thread. Many would argue that they speak to the state of the market here and I agree.

 

These were sold "off plan", something you referred to when trying to put a positive spin this market just a few posts back. Oops!

 

I don't know how thoughtful and balanced one has to be with regards to those collapses, and the many unsold properties, because I see as it a sign of an overheated market with a property glut, however you are in the market of selling property, so of course you have to talk the market up.

 

As for me, I have no bias one way or the other, I just see it for what it is and it is very plain to see, and as another has said, picking out the occasional "high quality" example and denigrating others living in average to good quality properties really doesn't portray a "thoughtful, balanced approach" from you.

 

You also referred to another poster as living in a backstreet and having a chip on his shoulder, again hardly a "thoughtful, balanced approach", and in the opinion of that poster and me, that was meant as an insult.

 

So all the while there are people like you who are in the market of selling property and trying to put a positive spin on it to help your cause, there will be level-headed people like me who have been here for many years and see the market as it really is, and indeed who have bought and sold profitably in it, so no "negative bias" from my perspective.

 

In addition, a look through the real estate agents listings tells a story of many hundreds, if not thousands of properties for sale, with many remaining unsold for years – – and that is the reflection of the market, laid out for all to see, with no biases whatsoever.

 

Have a lovely day dear Mysterion and "we" sincerely hope that you are successful in your property selling endeavours as it may do something to help clear up the glut, who knows?

 

 

[NamKangMan]

On 4/28/2018 at 7:45 PM, Mysterion said:

Goodluck with getting that info.

 

Not aware of any developing economy that has sofisticated analytics like what is offered in some parts of the “developed” world.

 

Keep in mind that liquidity is always a higher risk in a market that is mainly a “holiday destination”.

 

In addition, as Phuket condos are a very open international buyers market, it would be impossible to know true losses or gains unless you know the buyers actual base currency used to purchase the baht to buy the property.

 

As an example, russian sellers made absolute fortunes just based on the ruble devaluation the last couple of years, even if they sell at a baht loss.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Goodluck with getting that info." - this information is made available by real estate agents, and real estate institutes,  in other countries, as a way of advertising how quick they can "move" a property for the seller.  If agents on Phuket were to advertise this information, it would be an embarrassment to their agency.

 

"it would be impossible to know true losses or gains unless you know the buyers actual base currency used to purchase the baht" - we are discussing the Phuket property market.  Eg.  Owner paid 5 million baht for a condo.  Sold it 4 years later for 3 million baht.  That's a 2 million baht loss on the property.  I doubt many owners buy property here with the future foreign exchange rates in mind.  It's simply a net baht loss of 2 million baht.  

 

"russian sellers made absolute fortunes just based on the ruble devaluation" - in some cases, but how many Russian owners were FORCED to put their property on the market, all around the same time, thus, increasing the supply and options for prospective buyers, which lowered offers and sale prices.  The Russian sellers were 'distressed" sellers, so their "absolute fortunes" is an exaggeration. They took a baht loss on the property, but I concede may have made a Rouble gain, but once again, the PHUKET property market made a net baht loss. 

[NamKangMan]

On 4/28/2018 at 11:26 PM, Mysterion said:

Thanks for your opinion on this:

 

I honestly wish there was a “glut” as you say, as I am always interested in deals on good quality freehold condos in good locations.

 

Unfortunately, from the evidence i have seen, most of the good condos in good locations are still very expensive, and prices have not gone down over the last several years that i have been watching them.

 

Even new off-plan developments continue to ask sky high-prices, so they don't  provide any evidence of a “glut”  either.

 

Of course, there will always be situations where sellers have overpaid to begin with , combined with a bad location(dirty far backstreets/alleys of patong or next to a pig farm etc)/thai design(most farang and even many younger thai prefer contemporary western kitchens and baths)/bad maintenance /owning a landed and dated thai style house that was bought at a thai price years ago and then expecting to sell it now in an illegal corporate structure for the same price as a new contemporary pool-villa. All of this leads to disappointment/stubbornness/stalemates if wanting to sell later.

 

Can you please provide provide specific evidence of widespread fire-sale prices on condos and/or houses across the island? That would be useful and proper evidence of the “glut” anecdotes you mentioned.

 

You may also consider pasting link(s) to fire-sale house/condo listings.

 

 

 

 

 

"You may also consider pasting link(s) to fire-sale house/condo listings." - I have provided this information before.  I will provide it again, and it has nothing to do with "fire sale." 

 

www.siamrealestate.com   is one of the bigger online real estate agents.

 

At the time of this post, for the Phuket market:

 

House/Villa:  541 for sale.

 

Condo/Apartment:  316 for sale.

 

Villa or Condo:  857 for sale.

 

Land:  126 for sale.

 

I left out hotels and commercial properties.

 

Total:  1840

 

Now, given "Villa or Condo" may be double represented in the above, even if we remove that figure:

 

1840 - 857 = 983 properties for sale on just ONE online real estate agent website. 

 

So, just under a thousand.  Usually it is over a thousand, thus, the amount of properties for sale here can be discussed "in the thousands." 

 

It has been debated previously, a lot of these properties have been sold, but not removed from the website.  I find it hard to believe that would be in the hundreds, and in any case, I have countered that by then suggesting how many properties are for sale but yet to be uploaded to the website?

 

It has also been debated many properties are for sale on multiple websites.  Once again, I doubt all of the 983 properties are, but I concede a percentage would be.  However, not all of the properties on the other website would be advertised on Siam Real Estate's website, either, which would definitely push the figure over 1000 properties for sale on just one website.

 

Now, also add the off the plan constructions, and the properties that have been completed in the last few weeks, and will soon come onto the market, and there are easily "thousands of properties for sale on Phuket."

 

The definition of a "glut" is:

 

"Glut:  an excessively abundant supply of something."

 

So, Mysterion, I am asking you this question, directly, HOW MANY PROPERTIES would need to be for sale on Phuket, before YOU concede there is a "glut?" 

 

It is already in the thousands, just HOW MANY meets YOUR definition of a property "glut" because for me, there is already "an excessively abundant supply" of properties for sale on Phuket.