Phuket property glut?

[metisdead]

7) You will respect fellow members and post in a civil manner. No personal attacks, hateful or insulting towards other members, (flaming) Stalking of members on either the forum or via PM will not be allowed.

Posts in violation of the above have been removed.

[KarenBravo]

Now, that's something I've never been called before.

Cynical, pessimistic, "doomsayer" yes, but, never naive.

I agree, the time for investing in property in Phuket is well and truly over.

Yet, in the 80's, 90's and early 2000's I had a mate who had been here as long as I had and refused to buy property for the very same reasons that you espouse ad nauseum.

And here we are twenty five years later. I have a lovely house on 1.5 rai of land of which at least a third was paid for by profits from other property purchases.

My friend, who still lives in Kata is still renting the same house. By my calculations, he's paid over five times in rent what he could have bought it for.

Some of us take chances and win. Others just can't even recognize a chance because they always think about the down side.

Each to their own. I have no regrets whatsoever.

[TrevorS]

Phuket is suffering form all those items mentioned in the first couple of posts, espcecially lack of public transport, it is quite sad that one of the most popular tourist spots in Asia has such poor public transport.

The other factor is the low oil price which has made holidays almost twice as expensive for the Russians compared to 18 months ago.

The chinesedo like Phuket (I have a chinese wife).. but NOT for property investment.. look where the clever chinese money is going... Chian mai !! especially for top end properties.

[Renter]

the Chinese probably feel right at home in Chiang Mai

all the air pollution up there reminds them of back home

[NamKangMan]

Now, that's something I've never been called before.

Cynical, pessimistic, "doomsayer" yes, but, never naive.

I agree, the time for investing in property in Phuket is well and truly over.

Yet, in the 80's, 90's and early 2000's I had a mate who had been here as long as I had and refused to buy property for the very same reasons that you espouse ad nauseum.

And here we are twenty five years later. I have a lovely house on 1.5 rai of land of which at least a third was paid for by profits from other property purchases.

My friend, who still lives in Kata is still renting the same house. By my calculations, he's paid over five times in rent what he could have bought it for.

Some of us take chances and win. Others just can't even recognize a chance because they always think about the down side.

Each to their own. I have no regrets whatsoever.

For the record, I have no doubt that some have made money on property here in the past. Phuket boomed in the 80's and this was when buying property on Phuket could seriously be called an investment.

However, those days are long gone, and I doubt they will return.

We can discuss the past, but what relevance does it have to the present property market, and this thread title?

Using your friend's example KB, you focus on him, by your calculations, paying "over five times in rent what he could have bought it for" however, you do not take into account what he used the potential purchase money for elsewhere.

He could have invested the same money on property in a western country that may have appreciated considerably. Possibly even "flipped" a few in the west and made serious money.

He could have invested the same money in the stock market and done well, really well.

He could have invested the same money in a high interest bank account, with the interest paying his way here.

Or, he could have diversified and had a mixture of the above, giving a reasonable return over the years.

All of these very well may be paying his rent on the Phuket house, but he still retains an asset/s of real value in the west, where you have bought a house you will practically never be able to sell and liquidate, and I say that with absolutely no offence KB.

You mention taking chances. It's not about taking chances, it's about making informed decisions, with the best possible information at the time, whilst weighing up the reward, versus the risk.

For me, Thailand represents too much of risk, for too little reward, and that is not even taking into account the state of the property market here.

That is simply taking into account the fact that a foreigner has no rights here, there is no rule of law, it is terribly corrupt, ever changing visa laws, the country is politically unstable, foreign ownership of land restrictions, poor construction methods and materials etc etc - all of this, even before we get to the question, 'Would I be able to sell in the future for break even, or a profit, should I want to / need to?

You may think the rent I am paying is "dead money" but my rent is paid for, and then some, through investing the money I could buy a house here with, into a diversified portfolio in the west, with very little risk, and with higher rewards and appreciation, and I can sell off at any time for cash.

For me, the "dead money" here is tied up in Phuket property, because it can't be sold, not now, and in my opinion, not anytime soon into the future, unless at a considerable loss.

A lot of expats say, "I don't care because when I die the house is for the missus." What are you leaving her? It can't be sold, unless at a ridiculously low price, which effects the property market, and renting it out will become more difficult as Phuket loses western tourists and expats.

Many members, including yourself, say they are happy they bought a property in the past, or invested in property, but no way would they do it now.

I have a question, "What does that say for the value of the property you are in now if your own advice is not to buy / invest now?"

My rent here hasn't changed in 2 years. I have friends who have told me their rent hasn't changed in over 4 years. I don't even know if the term "rent review" is in the Thai language, but the longer my rent stays the same, the more my assets in the west are earning and appreciating, thus making my rent even more nominal.

Due to the oversupply of property, and lower demand from western tourists and expats, there is downward pressure on rents. If the rent on my current place is ever increased, I can look around and probably get a newer property for what I am currently paying.

With no taxes, repairs, management, depreciation, insurance etc etc to pay, eventually, if not already, I will be ahead by renting, whilst property owners are losing. Go figure.

[Sharp]

For the first time in many years I/we/her... Lol.. actually don't own anything in Thailand ( be it in my girlfriends name or through a company) except a house in the Village which I class as (not mine) anyhow. I have managed through more luck than judgment to sell our large Villa and several condons last year. The fact that my Lawyer said to me' I must be so happy now to of sold these properties' and I can relax with my money spoke volumes to me!! He also advised me to stay away from buying properties for now or in the future and just hold on to the long leases we have which seem to be doing fine at the moment regarding tenants.. I am currently staying in my friends vacant Villa and considering renting from now until we make the move to the Village home.

[NamKangMan]

For the first time in many years I/we/her... Lol.. actually don't own anything in Thailand ( be it in my girlfriends name or through a company) except a house in the Village which I class as (not mine) anyhow. I have managed through more luck than judgment to sell our large Villa and several condons last year. The fact that my Lawyer said to me' I must be so happy now to of sold these properties' and I can relax with my money spoke volumes to me!! He also advised me to stay away from buying properties for now or in the future and just hold on to the long leases we have which seem to be doing fine at the moment regarding tenants.. I am currently staying in my friends vacant Villa and considering renting from now until we make the move to the Village home.

"For the first time in many years I/we/her... Lol.. actually don't own anything in Thailand" - "just hold on to the long leases we have which seem to be doing fine at the moment regarding tenants."

Do you own the property you have long leases on, or are you subletting?

[LeungKen]

This thread is about Phuket's Property Glut, please keep it on track or it will be closed.

Visa discussions should be held elsewhere.

[Sharp]

Subletting at 1-3 year increments NKM..

[Sharp]

Apologies LK

[NamKangMan]

Subletting at 1-3 year increments NKM..

I think what you are doing will become very popular here in the future, if it isn't already. I know a guy here doing similar.

Basically, the owner takes on all the risk and expenses associated with the property, and for minimal work, just a little advertising, marketing and inspections, you take some reward, without any real exposure to the property market here.

Fair play to you.

I will not get into the work permit issue.

[thaistocks]

Any property glut in Phuket is in good part because so many Expats come here from all walks of life and education and just build homes, buy land and condo's etc...without thinking of alternatives -or if these (homes) are needed to begin with. They have no real investor sense or education, call it the "revenge of the nerds": "We build and buyers will come" mentality. They own property because they can see it, kick it, admire it, brag to their friends...while paying no property taxes here, not because it necessarily makes investor sense! Result of their own doing so yes there has been a relative large (artificial) oversupply of average dwellings. Now that this is apparent, they like to kick on the perceived shortcomings of Phuket, vs. their own folly & mistakes besides lack of understanding regarding investor alternatives. Phuket still has many attractive reasons to live here and this is relevant to any property discussion. In time this glut in that segment will subside, as these expats burned themselves out.

As to Thai stocks just to squelch those nay sayers, at the current dire state today the SET index is still up some 40% over the past 7 years plus nice dividends, vs as for just one example Australia, where their index is stuck at similar levels today, during that same period. [Taking as a base 2008, just past the N. Atlantic induced global financial crisis i.e. cooked up by the developed country leader].

[Sharp]

Correct NKM. And thank you.. I would add the likes of 7eleven and alike I had to have long leases before they would commit.. My point is a property glut may make people diversify instead of the usual bricks and mortar thinking...

[KarenBravo]

Now, that's something I've never been called before.

Cynical, pessimistic, "doomsayer" yes, but, never naive.

I agree, the time for investing in property in Phuket is well and truly over.

Yet, in the 80's, 90's and early 2000's I had a mate who had been here as long as I had and refused to buy property for the very same reasons that you espouse ad nauseum.

And here we are twenty five years later. I have a lovely house on 1.5 rai of land of which at least a third was paid for by profits from other property purchases.

My friend, who still lives in Kata is still renting the same house. By my calculations, he's paid over five times in rent what he could have bought it for.

Some of us take chances and win. Others just can't even recognize a chance because they always think about the down side.

Each to their own. I have no regrets whatsoever.

For the record, I have no doubt that some have made money on property here in the past. Phuket boomed in the 80's and this was when buying property on Phuket could seriously be called an investment.

However, those days are long gone, and I doubt they will return.

We can discuss the past, but what relevance does it have to the present property market, and this thread title?

Using your friend's example KB, you focus on him, by your calculations, paying "over five times in rent what he could have bought it for" however, you do not take into account what he used the potential purchase money for elsewhere.

He could have invested the same money on property in a western country that may have appreciated considerably. Possibly even "flipped" a few in the west and made serious money.

He could have invested the same money in the stock market and done well, really well.

He could have invested the same money in a high interest bank account, with the interest paying his way here.

Or, he could have diversified and had a mixture of the above, giving a reasonable return over the years.

All of these very well may be paying his rent on the Phuket house, but he still retains an asset/s of real value in the west, where you have bought a house you will practically never be able to sell and liquidate, and I say that with absolutely no offence KB.

You mention taking chances. It's not about taking chances, it's about making informed decisions, with the best possible information at the time, whilst weighing up the reward, versus the risk.

For me, Thailand represents too much of risk, for too little reward, and that is not even taking into account the state of the property market here.

That is simply taking into account the fact that a foreigner has no rights here, there is no rule of law, it is terribly corrupt, ever changing visa laws, the country is politically unstable, foreign ownership of land restrictions, poor construction methods and materials etc etc - all of this, even before we get to the question, 'Would I be able to sell in the future for break even, or a profit, should I want to / need to?

You may think the rent I am paying is "dead money" but my rent is paid for, and then some, through investing the money I could buy a house here with, into a diversified portfolio in the west, with very little risk, and with higher rewards and appreciation, and I can sell off at any time for cash.

For me, the "dead money" here is tied up in Phuket property, because it can't be sold, not now, and in my opinion, not anytime soon into the future, unless at a considerable loss.

A lot of expats say, "I don't care because when I die the house is for the missus." What are you leaving her? It can't be sold, unless at a ridiculously low price, which effects the property market, and renting it out will become more difficult as Phuket loses western tourists and expats.

Many members, including yourself, say they are happy they bought a property in the past, or invested in property, but no way would they do it now.

I have a question, "What does that say for the value of the property you are in now if your own advice is not to buy / invest now?"

My rent here hasn't changed in 2 years. I have friends who have told me their rent hasn't changed in over 4 years. I don't even know if the term "rent review" is in the Thai language, but the longer my rent stays the same, the more my assets in the west are earning and appreciating, thus making my rent even more nominal.

Due to the oversupply of property, and lower demand from western tourists and expats, there is downward pressure on rents. If the rent on my current place is ever increased, I can look around and probably get a newer property for what I am currently paying.

With no taxes, repairs, management, depreciation, insurance etc etc to pay, eventually, if not already, I will be ahead by renting, whilst property owners are losing. Go figure.

A totally pointless post.

I have heard every single point you have made at least seven hundred and thirty two times from you already.

What pisses me off is that you act like the pope of your own "don't buy a thing in Thailand" church..

You preach and you proselytize, and you have no idea that anything other than your own point of view is valid and in some cases considered superior to your own.

I'm not going to bang on about all the advantages of property ownership here (please don't you bang on about not being able to own property, you effectively can) as you have heard and rejected it already.

Yes, government regulations can change, yes, a meteor might hit my house and kill me. You have to make an informed choice on the likelihood of the outcome of certain events.

As for my house; I could sell it tomorrow at the right price and that right price would still be more than I paid for it. Chuck in 15 years rent free living. You get my point? No....didn't think so.

[Pinot]

I always advise people never to buy in Thailand. It makes no financial sense when you consider the risk. Renting is the only way to go.

I'm particularly disgusted by what's the over development is doing to Phuket. Here in Kamala there many projects underway to add to the glut of property.

The only way to stop this environmental disaster is to not buy into these properties. It has to eventually slow them down.

Montazure in Kamala is the worst and that's saying something. They've destroyed the Casurina grove at the North end of the beach as well as taking a gouge out of the hills overlooking the beach. In a Western country this kind of thing would have been impossible.

Never buy property in Thailand.

http://www.kamalala.com/never-buy-property-thailand/

[dageurreotype]

Now, that's something I've never been called before.

Cynical, pessimistic, "doomsayer" yes, but, never naive.

I agree, the time for investing in property in Phuket is well and truly over.

Yet, in the 80's, 90's and early 2000's I had a mate who had been here as long as I had and refused to buy property for the very same reasons that you espouse ad nauseum.

And here we are twenty five years later. I have a lovely house on 1.5 rai of land of which at least a third was paid for by profits from other property purchases.

My friend, who still lives in Kata is still renting the same house. By my calculations, he's paid over five times in rent what he could have bought it for.

Some of us take chances and win. Others just can't even recognize a chance because they always think about the down side.

Each to their own. I have no regrets whatsoever.

For the record, I have no doubt that some have made money on property here in the past. Phuket boomed in the 80's and this was when buying property on Phuket could seriously be called an investment.

However, those days are long gone, and I doubt they will return.

We can discuss the past, but what relevance does it have to the present property market, and this thread title?

Using your friend's example KB, you focus on him, by your calculations, paying "over five times in rent what he could have bought it for" however, you do not take into account what he used the potential purchase money for elsewhere.

He could have invested the same money on property in a western country that may have appreciated considerably. Possibly even "flipped" a few in the west and made serious money.

He could have invested the same money in the stock market and done well, really well.

He could have invested the same money in a high interest bank account, with the interest paying his way here.

Or, he could have diversified and had a mixture of the above, giving a reasonable return over the years.

All of these very well may be paying his rent on the Phuket house, but he still retains an asset/s of real value in the west, where you have bought a house you will practically never be able to sell and liquidate, and I say that with absolutely no offence KB.

You mention taking chances. It's not about taking chances, it's about making informed decisions, with the best possible information at the time, whilst weighing up the reward, versus the risk.

For me, Thailand represents too much of risk, for too little reward, and that is not even taking into account the state of the property market here.

That is simply taking into account the fact that a foreigner has no rights here, there is no rule of law, it is terribly corrupt, ever changing visa laws, the country is politically unstable, foreign ownership of land restrictions, poor construction methods and materials etc etc - all of this, even before we get to the question, 'Would I be able to sell in the future for break even, or a profit, should I want to / need to?

You may think the rent I am paying is "dead money" but my rent is paid for, and then some, through investing the money I could buy a house here with, into a diversified portfolio in the west, with very little risk, and with higher rewards and appreciation, and I can sell off at any time for cash.

For me, the "dead money" here is tied up in Phuket property, because it can't be sold, not now, and in my opinion, not anytime soon into the future, unless at a considerable loss.

A lot of expats say, "I don't care because when I die the house is for the missus." What are you leaving her? It can't be sold, unless at a ridiculously low price, which effects the property market, and renting it out will become more difficult as Phuket loses western tourists and expats.

Many members, including yourself, say they are happy they bought a property in the past, or invested in property, but no way would they do it now.

I have a question, "What does that say for the value of the property you are in now if your own advice is not to buy / invest now?"

My rent here hasn't changed in 2 years. I have friends who have told me their rent hasn't changed in over 4 years. I don't even know if the term "rent review" is in the Thai language, but the longer my rent stays the same, the more my assets in the west are earning and appreciating, thus making my rent even more nominal.

Due to the oversupply of property, and lower demand from western tourists and expats, there is downward pressure on rents. If the rent on my current place is ever increased, I can look around and probably get a newer property for what I am currently paying.

With no taxes, repairs, management, depreciation, insurance etc etc to pay, eventually, if not already, I will be ahead by renting, whilst property owners are losing. Go figure.

I've rented countless houses here over the years and then built my 'own'. Despite all the pitfalls you point out, I know which I very much prefer.

[sebastion]

I always advise people never to buy in Thailand. It makes no financial sense when you consider the risk. Renting is the only way to go.

I'm particularly disgusted by what's the over development is doing to Phuket. Here in Kamala there many projects underway to add to the glut of property.

The only way to stop this environmental disaster is to not buy into these properties. It has to eventually slow them down.

Montazure in Kamala is the worst and that's saying something. They've destroyed the Casurina grove at the North end of the beach as well as taking a gouge out of the hills overlooking the beach. In a Western country this kind of thing would have been impossible.

Never buy property in Thailand.

http://www.kamalala.com/never-buy-property-thailand/

That article must have been written by NKM.

[thaistocks]

Its exactly because of Pinot's point of view, shared by many here, that property ownership can make sense. Plenty want to come here, retire here and enjoy while "by God no, never invest anything"'; so the few that do can ha, realize nice rental income from those very naysayers. The key is to have a special and quiet place, not just a me too, "nie houe". In time that very bunch will have their ah ever so "safe" assets taxed back in their foreign countries regardless where they live, just like the US is setting the global trend on that of late. Mind you, one of the biggest property bust of all times was cooked up right in the US not so long ago.

[LivinginKata]

Its exactly because of Pinot's point of view, shared by many here, that property ownership can make sense. Plenty want to come here, retire here and enjoy while "by God no, never invest anything"'; so the few that do can ha, realize nice rental income from those very naysayers. The key is to have a special and quiet place, not just a me too, "nie houe". In time that very bunch will have their ah ever so "safe" assets taxed back in their foreign countries regardless where they live, just like the US is setting the global trend on that of late. Mind you, one of the biggest property bust of all times was cooked up right in the US not so long ago.

Exactly - someone has to be the owner of all those rental homes here in Phuket. Might as well be me and my wife, and I have made a nice return on all our rental homes. For sure if we wanted to sell today and quickly then we would not get the price we might value our properties. But hey - we have made back the initial investments and a lot more. I could walk away today and forget .... but not my Thai wife. Land ownership is seriously important to Thais.

[steelepulse]

You've got to wonder if NKM was familiar with the GFC when properties all around the world took a serious haircut. Yes, even in Blighty haircuts occurred. Everyone shoud do themselves a favour and watch "The Big Short" which goes into the whole GFC scenario and the housing glut, not just the Phuket housing glut.

Now, that's something I've never been called before.

Cynical, pessimistic, "doomsayer" yes, but, never naive.

I agree, the time for investing in property in Phuket is well and truly over.

Yet, in the 80's, 90's and early 2000's I had a mate who had been here as long as I had and refused to buy property for the very same reasons that you espouse ad nauseum.

And here we are twenty five years later. I have a lovely house on 1.5 rai of land of which at least a third was paid for by profits from other property purchases.

My friend, who still lives in Kata is still renting the same house. By my calculations, he's paid over five times in rent what he could have bought it for.

Some of us take chances and win. Others just can't even recognize a chance because they always think about the down side.

Each to their own. I have no regrets whatsoever.

For the record, I have no doubt that some have made money on property here in the past. Phuket boomed in the 80's and this was when buying property on Phuket could seriously be called an investment.

However, those days are long gone, and I doubt they will return.

We can discuss the past, but what relevance does it have to the present property market, and this thread title?

Using your friend's example KB, you focus on him, by your calculations, paying "over five times in rent what he could have bought it for" however, you do not take into account what he used the potential purchase money for elsewhere.

He could have invested the same money on property in a western country that may have appreciated considerably. Possibly even "flipped" a few in the west and made serious money.

He could have invested the same money in the stock market and done well, really well.

He could have invested the same money in a high interest bank account, with the interest paying his way here.

Or, he could have diversified and had a mixture of the above, giving a reasonable return over the years.

All of these very well may be paying his rent on the Phuket house, but he still retains an asset/s of real value in the west, where you have bought a house you will practically never be able to sell and liquidate, and I say that with absolutely no offence KB.

You mention taking chances. It's not about taking chances, it's about making informed decisions, with the best possible information at the time, whilst weighing up the reward, versus the risk.

For me, Thailand represents too much of risk, for too little reward, and that is not even taking into account the state of the property market here.

That is simply taking into account the fact that a foreigner has no rights here, there is no rule of law, it is terribly corrupt, ever changing visa laws, the country is politically unstable, foreign ownership of land restrictions, poor construction methods and materials etc etc - all of this, even before we get to the question, 'Would I be able to sell in the future for break even, or a profit, should I want to / need to?

You may think the rent I am paying is "dead money" but my rent is paid for, and then some, through investing the money I could buy a house here with, into a diversified portfolio in the west, with very little risk, and with higher rewards and appreciation, and I can sell off at any time for cash.

For me, the "dead money" here is tied up in Phuket property, because it can't be sold, not now, and in my opinion, not anytime soon into the future, unless at a considerable loss.

A lot of expats say, "I don't care because when I die the house is for the missus." What are you leaving her? It can't be sold, unless at a ridiculously low price, which effects the property market, and renting it out will become more difficult as Phuket loses western tourists and expats.

Many members, including yourself, say they are happy they bought a property in the past, or invested in property, but no way would they do it now.

I have a question, "What does that say for the value of the property you are in now if your own advice is not to buy / invest now?"

My rent here hasn't changed in 2 years. I have friends who have told me their rent hasn't changed in over 4 years. I don't even know if the term "rent review" is in the Thai language, but the longer my rent stays the same, the more my assets in the west are earning and appreciating, thus making my rent even more nominal.

Due to the oversupply of property, and lower demand from western tourists and expats, there is downward pressure on rents. If the rent on my current place is ever increased, I can look around and probably get a newer property for what I am currently paying.

With no taxes, repairs, management, depreciation, insurance etc etc to pay, eventually, if not already, I will be ahead by renting, whilst property owners are losing. Go figure.

[NamKangMan]

Now, that's something I've never been called before.

Cynical, pessimistic, "doomsayer" yes, but, never naive.

I agree, the time for investing in property in Phuket is well and truly over.

Yet, in the 80's, 90's and early 2000's I had a mate who had been here as long as I had and refused to buy property for the very same reasons that you espouse ad nauseum.

And here we are twenty five years later. I have a lovely house on 1.5 rai of land of which at least a third was paid for by profits from other property purchases.

My friend, who still lives in Kata is still renting the same house. By my calculations, he's paid over five times in rent what he could have bought it for.

Some of us take chances and win. Others just can't even recognize a chance because they always think about the down side.

Each to their own. I have no regrets whatsoever.

For the record, I have no doubt that some have made money on property here in the past. Phuket boomed in the 80's and this was when buying property on Phuket could seriously be called an investment.

However, those days are long gone, and I doubt they will return.

We can discuss the past, but what relevance does it have to the present property market, and this thread title?

Using your friend's example KB, you focus on him, by your calculations, paying "over five times in rent what he could have bought it for" however, you do not take into account what he used the potential purchase money for elsewhere.

He could have invested the same money on property in a western country that may have appreciated considerably. Possibly even "flipped" a few in the west and made serious money.

He could have invested the same money in the stock market and done well, really well.

He could have invested the same money in a high interest bank account, with the interest paying his way here.

Or, he could have diversified and had a mixture of the above, giving a reasonable return over the years.

All of these very well may be paying his rent on the Phuket house, but he still retains an asset/s of real value in the west, where you have bought a house you will practically never be able to sell and liquidate, and I say that with absolutely no offence KB.

You mention taking chances. It's not about taking chances, it's about making informed decisions, with the best possible information at the time, whilst weighing up the reward, versus the risk.

For me, Thailand represents too much of risk, for too little reward, and that is not even taking into account the state of the property market here.

That is simply taking into account the fact that a foreigner has no rights here, there is no rule of law, it is terribly corrupt, ever changing visa laws, the country is politically unstable, foreign ownership of land restrictions, poor construction methods and materials etc etc - all of this, even before we get to the question, 'Would I be able to sell in the future for break even, or a profit, should I want to / need to?

You may think the rent I am paying is "dead money" but my rent is paid for, and then some, through investing the money I could buy a house here with, into a diversified portfolio in the west, with very little risk, and with higher rewards and appreciation, and I can sell off at any time for cash.

For me, the "dead money" here is tied up in Phuket property, because it can't be sold, not now, and in my opinion, not anytime soon into the future, unless at a considerable loss.

A lot of expats say, "I don't care because when I die the house is for the missus." What are you leaving her? It can't be sold, unless at a ridiculously low price, which effects the property market, and renting it out will become more difficult as Phuket loses western tourists and expats.

Many members, including yourself, say they are happy they bought a property in the past, or invested in property, but no way would they do it now.

I have a question, "What does that say for the value of the property you are in now if your own advice is not to buy / invest now?"

My rent here hasn't changed in 2 years. I have friends who have told me their rent hasn't changed in over 4 years. I don't even know if the term "rent review" is in the Thai language, but the longer my rent stays the same, the more my assets in the west are earning and appreciating, thus making my rent even more nominal.

Due to the oversupply of property, and lower demand from western tourists and expats, there is downward pressure on rents. If the rent on my current place is ever increased, I can look around and probably get a newer property for what I am currently paying.

With no taxes, repairs, management, depreciation, insurance etc etc to pay, eventually, if not already, I will be ahead by renting, whilst property owners are losing. Go figure.

A totally pointless post.

I have heard every single point you have made at least seven hundred and thirty two times from you already.

What pisses me off is that you act like the pope of your own "don't buy a thing in Thailand" church..

You preach and you proselytize, and you have no idea that anything other than your own point of view is valid and in some cases considered superior to your own.

I'm not going to bang on about all the advantages of property ownership here (please don't you bang on about not being able to own property, you effectively can) as you have heard and rejected it already.

Yes, government regulations can change, yes, a meteor might hit my house and kill me. You have to make an informed choice on the likelihood of the outcome of certain events.

As for my house; I could sell it tomorrow at the right price and that right price would still be more than I paid for it. Chuck in 15 years rent free living. You get my point? No....didn't think so.

No need to take it personally KB, I agree with what you said, "each to their own."

You see the merits of buying here. I see the merits of renting here.

I'll address a couple of the points in your post.

"I could sell it tomorrow at the right price" - we both know that is not true, and if it were, it would be the "right price" for the buyer, not yourself.

Nothing is moving on Phuket. You would struggle to sell it anytime soon, unless at a significantly reduced price, and one that you would probably not be very impressed with. Remember, it's a 15 year old property, competing with so many newly constructed properties, with more new properties coming on the market every week.

"Chuck in 15 years rent free living" - how about you add the purchase price, and add all the fees and maintenance costs over 15 years, and divide that figure by 15 years and see what it your property has cost you over 15 years.

You view it as "rent free living" on the basis you can actually sell it, in a timely fashion, for a price that would equate to giving you "15 years of rent free living." As stated, you simply would not be able to sell at that price in today's market, if you were lucky enough to sell it at all.

Now, consider what that purchase money would have made you, invested in the west, over 15 years. I'm sure it would have been more that what I could have rented your house for.

You get my point? No....didn't think so.

[NamKangMan]

You've got to wonder if NKM was familiar with the GFC when properties all around the world took a serious haircut. Yes, even in Blighty haircuts occurred. Everyone shoud do themselves a favour and watch "The Big Short" which goes into the whole GFC scenario and the housing glut, not just the Phuket housing glut.

Now, that's something I've never been called before.

Cynical, pessimistic, "doomsayer" yes, but, never naive.

I agree, the time for investing in property in Phuket is well and truly over.

Yet, in the 80's, 90's and early 2000's I had a mate who had been here as long as I had and refused to buy property for the very same reasons that you espouse ad nauseum.

And here we are twenty five years later. I have a lovely house on 1.5 rai of land of which at least a third was paid for by profits from other property purchases.

My friend, who still lives in Kata is still renting the same house. By my calculations, he's paid over five times in rent what he could have bought it for.

Some of us take chances and win. Others just can't even recognize a chance because they always think about the down side.

Each to their own. I have no regrets whatsoever.

For the record, I have no doubt that some have made money on property here in the past. Phuket boomed in the 80's and this was when buying property on Phuket could seriously be called an investment.

However, those days are long gone, and I doubt they will return.

We can discuss the past, but what relevance does it have to the present property market, and this thread title?

Using your friend's example KB, you focus on him, by your calculations, paying "over five times in rent what he could have bought it for" however, you do not take into account what he used the potential purchase money for elsewhere.

He could have invested the same money on property in a western country that may have appreciated considerably. Possibly even "flipped" a few in the west and made serious money.

He could have invested the same money in the stock market and done well, really well.

He could have invested the same money in a high interest bank account, with the interest paying his way here.

Or, he could have diversified and had a mixture of the above, giving a reasonable return over the years.

All of these very well may be paying his rent on the Phuket house, but he still retains an asset/s of real value in the west, where you have bought a house you will practically never be able to sell and liquidate, and I say that with absolutely no offence KB.

You mention taking chances. It's not about taking chances, it's about making informed decisions, with the best possible information at the time, whilst weighing up the reward, versus the risk.

For me, Thailand represents too much of risk, for too little reward, and that is not even taking into account the state of the property market here.

That is simply taking into account the fact that a foreigner has no rights here, there is no rule of law, it is terribly corrupt, ever changing visa laws, the country is politically unstable, foreign ownership of land restrictions, poor construction methods and materials etc etc - all of this, even before we get to the question, 'Would I be able to sell in the future for break even, or a profit, should I want to / need to?

You may think the rent I am paying is "dead money" but my rent is paid for, and then some, through investing the money I could buy a house here with, into a diversified portfolio in the west, with very little risk, and with higher rewards and appreciation, and I can sell off at any time for cash.

For me, the "dead money" here is tied up in Phuket property, because it can't be sold, not now, and in my opinion, not anytime soon into the future, unless at a considerable loss.

A lot of expats say, "I don't care because when I die the house is for the missus." What are you leaving her? It can't be sold, unless at a ridiculously low price, which effects the property market, and renting it out will become more difficult as Phuket loses western tourists and expats.

Many members, including yourself, say they are happy they bought a property in the past, or invested in property, but no way would they do it now.

I have a question, "What does that say for the value of the property you are in now if your own advice is not to buy / invest now?"

My rent here hasn't changed in 2 years. I have friends who have told me their rent hasn't changed in over 4 years. I don't even know if the term "rent review" is in the Thai language, but the longer my rent stays the same, the more my assets in the west are earning and appreciating, thus making my rent even more nominal.

Due to the oversupply of property, and lower demand from western tourists and expats, there is downward pressure on rents. If the rent on my current place is ever increased, I can look around and probably get a newer property for what I am currently paying.

With no taxes, repairs, management, depreciation, insurance etc etc to pay, eventually, if not already, I will be ahead by renting, whilst property owners are losing. Go figure.

Sure, many took a hit during the GFC. Diversification offered some protection. Still, there were safe havens also, and China's growth was incredible and offered some good investments.

Unencumbered property in the west still earned rental income, and encumbered property enjoyed very low interest rates.

Not everyone lost everything during the GFC.

[NamKangMan]

Now, that's something I've never been called before.

Cynical, pessimistic, "doomsayer" yes, but, never naive.

I agree, the time for investing in property in Phuket is well and truly over.

Yet, in the 80's, 90's and early 2000's I had a mate who had been here as long as I had and refused to buy property for the very same reasons that you espouse ad nauseum.

And here we are twenty five years later. I have a lovely house on 1.5 rai of land of which at least a third was paid for by profits from other property purchases.

My friend, who still lives in Kata is still renting the same house. By my calculations, he's paid over five times in rent what he could have bought it for.

Some of us take chances and win. Others just can't even recognize a chance because they always think about the down side.

Each to their own. I have no regrets whatsoever.

For the record, I have no doubt that some have made money on property here in the past. Phuket boomed in the 80's and this was when buying property on Phuket could seriously be called an investment.

However, those days are long gone, and I doubt they will return.

We can discuss the past, but what relevance does it have to the present property market, and this thread title?

Using your friend's example KB, you focus on him, by your calculations, paying "over five times in rent what he could have bought it for" however, you do not take into account what he used the potential purchase money for elsewhere.

He could have invested the same money on property in a western country that may have appreciated considerably. Possibly even "flipped" a few in the west and made serious money.

He could have invested the same money in the stock market and done well, really well.

He could have invested the same money in a high interest bank account, with the interest paying his way here.

Or, he could have diversified and had a mixture of the above, giving a reasonable return over the years.

All of these very well may be paying his rent on the Phuket house, but he still retains an asset/s of real value in the west, where you have bought a house you will practically never be able to sell and liquidate, and I say that with absolutely no offence KB.

You mention taking chances. It's not about taking chances, it's about making informed decisions, with the best possible information at the time, whilst weighing up the reward, versus the risk.

For me, Thailand represents too much of risk, for too little reward, and that is not even taking into account the state of the property market here.

That is simply taking into account the fact that a foreigner has no rights here, there is no rule of law, it is terribly corrupt, ever changing visa laws, the country is politically unstable, foreign ownership of land restrictions, poor construction methods and materials etc etc - all of this, even before we get to the question, 'Would I be able to sell in the future for break even, or a profit, should I want to / need to?

You may think the rent I am paying is "dead money" but my rent is paid for, and then some, through investing the money I could buy a house here with, into a diversified portfolio in the west, with very little risk, and with higher rewards and appreciation, and I can sell off at any time for cash.

For me, the "dead money" here is tied up in Phuket property, because it can't be sold, not now, and in my opinion, not anytime soon into the future, unless at a considerable loss.

A lot of expats say, "I don't care because when I die the house is for the missus." What are you leaving her? It can't be sold, unless at a ridiculously low price, which effects the property market, and renting it out will become more difficult as Phuket loses western tourists and expats.

Many members, including yourself, say they are happy they bought a property in the past, or invested in property, but no way would they do it now.

I have a question, "What does that say for the value of the property you are in now if your own advice is not to buy / invest now?"

My rent here hasn't changed in 2 years. I have friends who have told me their rent hasn't changed in over 4 years. I don't even know if the term "rent review" is in the Thai language, but the longer my rent stays the same, the more my assets in the west are earning and appreciating, thus making my rent even more nominal.

Due to the oversupply of property, and lower demand from western tourists and expats, there is downward pressure on rents. If the rent on my current place is ever increased, I can look around and probably get a newer property for what I am currently paying.

With no taxes, repairs, management, depreciation, insurance etc etc to pay, eventually, if not already, I will be ahead by renting, whilst property owners are losing. Go figure.

I've rented countless houses here over the years and then built my 'own'. Despite all the pitfalls you point out, I know which I very much prefer.

"Despite all the pitfalls you point out" - do you agree with the "pitfalls" I have pointed out, or not?

If you do, why did you still buy?

If you don't, please post why you disagree with them.

[tangerinehouse]

Is there an Property Glut or not? Who knows but it is true that if you want to sell your Condo or House now you deep in the Shit as you must to offer huge discounts or you can find an Buyer. Mostly in the Tourist Destinations Phuket, Pattaya, Hua Hin.

Maybe the Thai Stock market is an good or Early Indicator as the Index holding not too bad giving the state of economy in Thailand with an loss of lets say around 25% from the TOP most of the Smaller Developer and Properties PcL's (to be fair, together with an lot of others formerly extreme overpriced Stocks) hit very hard with losses from 30-60% . So if it is true, what the so called Markets want to tell us then we will see maybe some more deterioration in Prices ...

[NamKangMan]

I'm afraid that NKM is one of the people that Oscar Wilde was talking about in his quotation:-

"A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing".

I'm sure that he would use the same argument regarding women. Much cheaper to rent than actually have a missus, but, then he is totally oblivious to the feeling of being loved by a good woman. You see, there's no monetary measure for that.

Come on KB. I know you can do better than a personal attack.

Do you have something to add about the property glut on Phuket?

Do you agree or disagree there even is a property glut here?

If you agree there is, why don't you post what effects it's having on the property market here, including your own property?

If you disagree there is a property glut here, why don't you post your reasons.

It's all internet banter. No need to take anything personally.

The posting of my economic rationale for renting on Phuket was not meant to offend any owners of property here, including you, KB.

[NamKangMan]

Its exactly because of Pinot's point of view, shared by many here, that property ownership can make sense. Plenty want to come here, retire here and enjoy while "by God no, never invest anything"'; so the few that do can ha, realize nice rental income from those very naysayers. The key is to have a special and quiet place, not just a me too, "nie houe". In time that very bunch will have their ah ever so "safe" assets taxed back in their foreign countries regardless where they live, just like the US is setting the global trend on that of late. Mind you, one of the biggest property bust of all times was cooked up right in the US not so long ago.

Exactly - someone has to be the owner of all those rental homes here in Phuket. Might as well be me and my wife, and I have made a nice return on all our rental homes. For sure if we wanted to sell today and quickly then we would not get the price we might value our properties. But hey - we have made back the initial investments and a lot more. I could walk away today and forget .... but not my Thai wife. Land ownership is seriously important to Thais.

As mentioned, are we talking about the past, and what individuals have made, or lost, or are we talking about the current property market on Phuket?

Put simply, LIK, using your current business model, do you think if you bought into the Phuket property market today, you could achieve the same result as you until this day?

I would very much doubt that you could, and that is not a reflection of you, as an individual and businessman, but a reflection of the Phuket property and tourism market on this very day.

[NamKangMan]

Is there an Property Glut or not? Who knows but it is true that if you want to sell your Condo or House now you deep in the Shit as you must to offer huge discounts or you can find an Buyer. Mostly in the Tourist Destinations Phuket, Pattaya, Hua Hin.

Maybe the Thai Stock market is an good or Early Indicator as the Index holding not too bad giving the state of economy in Thailand with an loss of lets say around 25% from the TOP most of the Smaller Developer and Properties PcL's (to be fair, together with an lot of others formerly extreme overpriced Stocks) hit very hard with losses from 30-60% . So if it is true, what the so called Markets want to tell us then we will see maybe some more deterioration in Prices ...

"but it is true that if you want to sell your Condo or House now you deep in the Shit as you must to offer huge discounts" - isn't this down to simple "supply and demand" economics?

Supply has overtaken demand, therefore prices go down to be able to sell.

That "supply" or, in my opinion, oversupply, is the "glut" that is the subject of this thread.

[LivinginKata]

As mentioned, are we talking about the past, and what individuals have made, or lost, or are we talking about the current property market on Phuket?

Put simply, LIK, using your current business model, do you think if you bought into the Phuket property market today, you could achieve the same result as you until this day?

I would very much doubt that you could, and that is not a reflection of you, as an individual and businessman, but a reflection of the Phuket property and tourism market on this very day.

Think I have already clearly stated in this topic - no way would I start any type of small business here today.

The topic is asking about a property glut - and the clear answer is YES.

You (and others) steered the topic into renting as opposed to buying. Some of us owners responded mostly saying we did Ok buying - in the past. I think we all made that very clear.

Knowing what I know now I still consider that buying land and building over 10 - 20 years ago was the best investment I ever made. Back in those early days a 25% ROI based on the cost of land and construction at that time. Buying land and building today you would be lucky to make a 5% ROI on renting out homes. That's why we decided not to build on the land(s) we bought 7 years ago. Given the shortage of sea view land we could easily sell that land at a good profit, but my wife prefers to own and keep the land surrounding our building undeveloped.

[Mr Wonderful]

So basically we have the cheap Charlies complaining that they can't stay in TH without income or substantial savings. Why would TH want them? Get a job here. Or retire with 800k baht in the bank. What's the big deal about keeping 800k? Thailand can't afford to carry broke foreigners.

[Renter]

there is no doubt there is a property glut in Phuket in spite of what some posters here say as they obviously have a vested interest in saying so

they like to talk things up ( probably in the hope of getting a naive newcomer to sign a buying contract )

too much overbuilding , poor infrastructure , no rule of law , daily hazards unknown in the west , many many more - but we who live here know the truth

my neighbors have several nice beach side properties to rent ...1 bedroom unoccupied 8 months...2 bedroom unoccupied 7 months...3 bedroom unoccupied 13 months - another neighbor let her 3 bedroom to a teacher family with a 20% rent discount & 15% discount on water, electric & internet...but some here persist in continually talking up the market here.. they have their reasons but there is such a thing as " look out of the window " economics ,,,so look out the window & see reality

i just came back from a swim at the beach ~ it's only a 5-6 minute walk away, plus I also have a nice swimming pool here & a roomy place ~ all for a very reasonable rent....so why buy !

the $$$ I don't spend on property ownership here is far better employed making real money protected by rule of law in a jurisdiction where justice prevails so like NKMan I prefer to sleep peacefully at night knowing I've invested smartly

but if you want to gamble it's your choice