Thai politics: Testing times in China but US economy warming up

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
Testing times in China but US economy warming up
NOPHAKHUN LIMSAMARNPHUN
THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- CHINA STARTED 2016 with a 7 per cent plunge in stock prices on Monday, raising the spectre of major economic challenges in the new year. Among the major issues are China’s over-capacity and rising non-performing loans (NPLs) amid global economic uncertainty.

Officially, China's GDP could slow to an annual rate of 6.9 per cent in 2016 from more than 7 per cent. The official figures are, however, still a very bullish projection compared to estimates of western investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, which suggest that China's growth rate would more likely be in the range of 3 to 5 per cent this year.

According to Christopher Balding, an associate professor of Peking University's HSBC Business School, who closely monitors the Chinese economy, fiscal measures and monetary tools will be used to stimulate China's domestic economy to help offset a likely drop in Chinese exports, which were flat in 2015.

At present, exports account for around 25 per cent of China's GDP, while domestic consumption accounts for about half of GDP.

As an export-led economy for several decades, China has shifted to rebalance its economy with a focus on boosting domestic consumption.

For Thailand, the consequences will be mixed. Given that China is currently the largest market for Thai exports, accounting for about 10 per cent of total shipments, a Chinese slowdown would be negative for a recovery in the Thai export sector, which endured a contraction last year.

However, there is some indication that Thai shipments to other major markets such as the US may pick up due to a stronger economic outlook following last month's hike of the Fed fund rate - the first increase in nine years.

US GDP is poised for a stronger growth rate of 2.4 per cent this year.

While the prospects of Thai exports to China may not be encouraging, Chinese companies will likely accelerate investment projects and acquisition of assets in Thailand, especially those for import substitution, natural resources, agriculture, hightechnology manufactur?ing, and property investment, as it diversifies the economy to reduce depend?ence on exports.

Because of rapid economic development over the past few decades, China has also faced the challenge of high wages, prompting some western firms to shift their production to Mexico to serve consumers in North America.

Rising wages in China have also boosted the attractiveness of manufacturing facilities in Asean countries, including Thailand.

In addition, the Thai tourism industry should continue to benefit from an increase in Chinese tourist arrivals, which reportedly totalled seven million last year. The number of outbound tourists from China is expected to post double-digit growth this year.

New target groups for Thai tourism should include middle-upper income travellers from China, who would be less affected by an economic slump.

Among their favourite destinations in Asia are Thailand, Japan, Korea and Malaysia.

Overall, China's economic challenges and rebalancing ought to be well understood, so as to take advantage of new opportunities and minimise potential risks.

In the end, China's role in helping to drive global economic growth may be reduced, as the US economy regains strength and becomes a more powerful locomotive in this year.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Testing-times-in-China-but-US-economy-warming-up-30276216.html


-- The Nation 2016-01-06

[EyesWideOpen]

I have said it before, and I will say it again. China is going to implode.

And while America bashers continue to make fools of themselves on

TV, smart money in China is moving their money to America.

[aRobotnamedWAR]

as i said before, china, you really <deleted> up. But you did do a good job defusing your civil war by allowing the commoners to have more children. *clap*clap*clap*

1. you built to much too fast and didnt think about trainning engineers to repair all thoses factories you built. and no, my brother wont go to china to help out nor anyone we know, even when you offer 200-500 usd an hour. Why? because it was lies. where is my friend that disappeared off the planet? WHere are my other friends that disappeared during YOUR Olympics? (organ harvested im presuming)

2. trying to sabotage the american economy didnt really help you out in the long run now did it?

3. you have thousands of miles of warehouses filled with the most useless of items. good luck with that.

4. once thailand, burma, and cambodia realizes you want to use OUR countries as a toxic waste dump for raw materials before you take them to china, corrupt politicians will finally get the axe or go swimming with the fishes, see?

so, to sum up, China, you SUCK. you have no moral code, and the only thing you know how to do with all your money is by land... wow such imagination. I hope hong kong people continue to look at mainlanders like animals.

[Thailand]

PTB backs wrong horse!

2016, a repeat of 2015 but more dangerous as the walls crumble.

[craigt3365]

Can't believe the official stats from the Chinese government. But here's some scary stuff.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/In-biggest-layoff-in-China-coal-company-axes-100000-workers/articleshow/49121748.cms

In biggest layoff in China, coal company axes 100,000 workers

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/Chinese-military-to-layoff-1-70-lakh-officers-Report/articleshow/48833907.cms

Officers will account for more than half of the 300,000 personnel to go in President Xi Jinping's plans to streamline the People's Liberation Army (PLA), Hong Kong-based the South China Morning Post said, citing unnamed military officials.

[wonder6281]

Another eroneous article stating a strong US economy that is in real terms in recession.

[Srikcir]

US economy regains strength and becomes a more powerful locomotive

vs

Chinese stroke Prayut's ego

Guess who becomes Prayut's priority for economic recovery?

[craigt3365]

Another eroneous article stating a strong US economy that is in real terms in recession.

Unemployment is low, GDP is at a decent rate, inflation is low. Hardly a recession.

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-us-economy-is-not-near-recession-2015-10

The recession fearmongers might be dead wrong.

We recently detailed why some economists are spooked about the economy.

Harvard professor Larry Summers also noted that the consensus of economists has failed to forecast a recession one year in advance in post-war America. So, once again, we may not know for sure until we are really close to an economic downturn, or even in one.

However, it doesn't exactly look like we're there.

[trogers]

Can't believe the official stats from the Chinese government. But here's some scary stuff.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/In-biggest-layoff-in-China-coal-company-axes-100000-workers/articleshow/49121748.cms

In biggest layoff in China, coal company axes 100,000 workers

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/Chinese-military-to-layoff-1-70-lakh-officers-Report/articleshow/48833907.cms

Officers will account for more than half of the 300,000 personnel to go in President Xi Jinping's plans to streamline the People's Liberation Army (PLA), Hong Kong-based the South China Morning Post said, citing unnamed military officials.

I like China. It's president just announced what China's GDP for this year should be - 6.5%.

And so we would see trade statistics being padded towards this target...

[dageurreotype]

Another eroneous article stating a strong US economy that is in real terms in recession.

Unemployment is low, GDP is at a decent rate, inflation is low. Hardly a recession.

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-us-economy-is-not-near-recession-2015-10

The recession fearmongers might be dead wrong.

We recently detailed why some economists are spooked about the economy.

Harvard professor Larry Summers also noted that the consensus of economists has failed to forecast a recession one year in advance in post-war America. So, once again, we may not know for sure until we are really close to an economic downturn, or even in one.

However, it doesn't exactly look like we're there.

Watch the just released movie The Big Short. Scary stuff.