European shares tumble as worries over China intensify

[snoop1130]

European shares tumble as worries over China intensify
Euronews

EUROPE -- European markets fell sharply at opening on Thursday off the back of losses in China and across Asia.

Germany’s DAX quickly declined by more than 3 percent.

In London, the FTSE 100 weakened by 2.3 percent while Paris began morning trading 3 percent down.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index and the euro zone’s blue-chip Euro STOXX index fell 2.3 percent and 2.5 percent respectively.

The DAX and FTSEurofirst were both at their lowest level since early October, with the DAX some 20 percent below a record high reached in April 2015.

“It’s looking pretty ugly. We’ve been scaling down equity positions. It’s time to take a step back to re-evaluate the situation,” said Andreas Clenow, hedge fund manager and chief investment officer at ACIES Asset Management.

The decline came after China accelerated the depreciation of the yuan, sending currencies across the region reeling and domestic stock markets tumbling.

The repercussions of the slowdown in China and the turbulence on its markets had already been felt on Monday and fragile investor confidence continues to take its toll.

-- (c) Copyright Euronews 2016-01-07

[Usernames]

The Chinese stock market has cracked. Can't keep it open for 30 minutes. They'll have sellers lined up every day to be the first ones to get out in order to avoid the "circuit breakers." Down, down, down she goes. The Beijing Big Bubble has popped. Growth slowing (could be even going in negative territory but the Chinese keep things hidden), the property market is imploding, and the next thing to pop will be the debt load. Say goodbye to Chinese tourists, wherever they are.

[OMGImInPattaya]

There goes another BRIC in the wall ?

[Usernames]

There goes another BRIC in the wall ?

And it looks like they're taking AAPL and FB shares with them. Good thing Zuckerberg already gave all his away!!!

[craigt3365]

It doesn't look good. But who knows what tomorrow holds. China is a key part of the global economy.

[Publicus]

CCP stock market is gonzo. For good. There's no getting it back.

The market has now lost more money than Germany's GDP and people want only to sell. Soon it's going to be the equivalent of GDP of Germany and Spain together.

The prohibition CCP Boyz put on selling back in August when the market began its crash has been declared expired, so now everyone who needed to sell then are selling now. The prohibition has expired cause the CCP can't buy any more damaged equities due to its being too costly to 'em. The crash has now transmongrified to a freefall. 1929 has hit the CCP China. Herbert Hoover hovers again, this time in the CCP China.

IMF is keeping silent cause it now recognises it got taken to the woods. After including the yuan in the SDR basket of currencies CCP turned on 'em. Yesterday CCP further devalued the yuan 0.22% to take it to 6.55 to usd. Yuan is now off 1.1% against usd.

The Boyz are in fact going for the 20% devaluation critics had called was occuring when it devalued in August to a suprised and shocked global market. The global storm against it stopped CCP then but now the big devaluation is on. Stand by for a regional then global currency currency depreciation war.

It's now $2 Trillion in capital outflows this year alone. Societe General said yesterday the Boyz have sold not the generally estimated $600 billion in forex reserves since August, but that it's more like $1.2 Trillion (estimate). What's called reserve reversal which is always bad news. Day before yesterday Bank of America which used to have a 20% stake in China Construction Bank said CCP has "passed the point of no return."

Looks like Daiwa Securities which said in September CCP would lose 20% off GDP by 2020 is going to have to revise its figures upward and decrease the time line. China Beige Book said two weeks ago the economy crashed during 4th quarter, meaning all significant indicators from unemployment to manufacturing to full deflation among others went into a powerful negative trend which, considering all factors will be near impossible to reverse. Debt to GDP which had been 283% entering 2015 entered 2016 at 300% and counting on a rapid action calculator. Stimulous does not work any more either.

Last month 100,000 coal miners lost their jobs at one company in northeast CCP, which is 40% of its workforce. Extrapolate that across the economy because it uses coal in huge amounts. So the fall in demand speaks to the sharp drop in electricity production and consumption. Prices have to go up to support the energy sector. Tuesday a big power outage in the industrial South occurred from 7 a.m to 6 pm. Not much harm done actually as so many factories are idle.

During the fallout from the 2008 US financial disaster which slowed CCP growth, the Boyz kept workers at idle factories to hide workless months on end. No more now. Workless employees are being sent home. CCP can no longer pretend to pay them and the workers can no longer pretend to get paid. Merchants from shops to markets can't pretend any more to get paid for their goods being "sold." Wholesalers need cash not promises.

There is much more but that's the accurate picture of the whole of it. It is aggravated by everything being in overcapacity and global markets being too slow to buy any CCP exported overcapacity. So for instance, the anyway grandiose $40 billion Silk Road proposal from CCP China to Europe and the Asia Infrastructure and Investment Bank to finance it is looking at forclosure before it got to turn on the lights.

It had been expected since around 2012 the CCP's artificial and corrupt command economy would begin to show systemic wear and tear starting in 2016. It's turned out 2015 was the radical turning point of the CCP's fortunes and fates. Looking at the first week of 2016, events in the CCP unmistakably indicate 2016 will be a year of rapid decline rather than be the turning point. CCP is already past the point of no return.

So it's not unexpected. People are selling globally so stock markets are doing what they normally do and as people knew they would do. They're going to be off for a while. Correcting but not crashing. The big noise we hear from the CCP China is the sound of the CCP crashing.

[Publicus]

There goes another BRIC in the wall ?

The Brics had been falling for a lack of mortar, but now they have collapsed into a pile of ruble rubble.

Here's India innovative banker Uday Kotak, long time friend and an informal economics adivsor to India pro-US PM Narendra Modi speaking to a January 4th awards ceremony sponsored by the Economic Times which is part of The Times of India group.

It is time we pulled the ‘I’ out of Brics and India must walk alone: Uday Kotak

"There is a pullout risk in emerging markets," Kotak said. "It is time we pulled 'I' out of Brics. India must walk alone. If you are today clubbed with Brazil, Russia, even China, it is not a good company to be in. This is India's opportunity."

Read more at:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/50431180.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Last one out kindly turn off the lights.

Oh, so the lights are already off. Okay, very good then.

[puukao]

buy low, sell high..

it was obvious to sell near the top...

now i'm rich.....time to retire..

thanks for playing

[NeverSure]

But, But, But... China is The Next Big Deal^TM !!! China will soon rule the world!!! China can't have debt near 300% of GDP as it has so much money it loans $trillions to the USA!!

China is awash in cash and everyone is getting rich. Invest In China^TM!!! Pull your money out of the Finished West^TM

China the Superpower!!!! The Yuan will soon be the global unit of trade when no one wants $USD or Pounds.

Er, Uh.....

[JHolmesJr]

No more chinese tourists....almost makes it worth the carnage.

I can dream, cant i?

[trogers]

Don't worry! China will see a GDP growth of 6.5% this year. Their president said so.

[daveAustin]

Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

[ExpatOilWorker]

But, But, But... China is The Next Big Deal^TM !!! China will soon rule the world!!! China can't have debt near 300% of GDP as it has so much money it loans $trillions to the USA!!

China is awash in cash and everyone is getting rich. Invest In China^TM!!! Pull your money out of the Finished West^TM

China the Superpower!!!! The Yuan will soon be the global unit of trade when no one wants $USD or Pounds.

Er, Uh.....

China IS the next big thing, biggest polluter and now biggest failure.

[Usernames]

You really must be foolish to have your money in the Chinese stock market. It's like a roach motel. Once you're in, you can't get out. The rules change daily. Circuit breakers in one day and out the next. The Communist government using public money to buy and prop up stocks. And this little gem that came along with the sudden cancellation of the circuit breakers, "To prevent a sell-off, the CSRC issued new rules on Thursday to restrict major shareholders in listed companies to selling no more than 1 percent of a company's shares every three months, in an attempt to stabilize markets." No wonder the Chinese CNBC host was singing in Chinese at the open. Now, after the green (red in China) open, watch out for the whipsaw! http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/07/china-stocks-volatility-yuan-low-oil-prices-weigh-on-asian-stock-markets.html

[Publicus]

I wouldn't write them off too easily guys.

Publicus, you should know that they never do anything nor allow anything without an ulterior motive.

I will be keeping a close eye on the south China seas.

One way to make the yanks back off is to threaten their money.

The Boyz have sold off $600 billion in US Treasuries and other US corporate bonds it had, since September.

No impact on the US economy or financial system, which is no surprise. Others are buying Treasuries even exceeding the CCP sale and they will continue to buy 'em. Everyone wants US T-Bills. Always have wanted 'em.

CCP has never been the banker of the USA. CCP has no economic leverage over the USA economy or financial system. CCP can sell 'em all tomorrow and there will be no impact on the USA.

It's a mindless myth to say CCP can crash the USA economy and it's always been the myth of the know-nothings. (In fact, POTUS is authorised in law to order Department of Treasury to cease paying off on any T-Bills anytime for any reason of national security, which isn't happening nor will it happen.)

Anyone who thinks the United States would place its fate in the hands of an evil foreign government needs a serious reality check. Needs to sober up.

Throughout all this $600 billion, interest on T-Bills ticked a couple of points and remains at 2%. CCP can sell 'em all right now and it will have no impact on the USA economy. The people who have been for years predicting a selloff to destroy the USA are lost in the woods, blind, know-nothings.

Bank on it.

Yesterday Societe General estimated the Boyz have since September sold off a total of $1.2 Trillion of their forex reserves. It is not only T-Bills. This year it's estimated the Boyz will need to sell $2 Trillion more of reserves at the least. Which is why their depreciating the currency by up to 20%. Too late anyway.

Everything in the CCP China is big. To include this big bust and crash. No problem. Nobody's going to miss 'em.

[ozyjon]

It doesn't look good. But who knows what tomorrow holds. China is a key part of the global economy.

So the media wants us to think so, i have just been ''gob smacked'',,

that is, smacked in the face by a story i just read, it's not China we

have to worry about, keep your ears and eyes open and wait for the

sleeping tiger,, Japan, then world economy will really spiral out of

control.

[Publicus]

It doesn't look good. But who knows what tomorrow holds. China is a key part of the global economy.

So the media wants us to think so, i have just been ''gob smacked'',,

that is, smacked in the face by a story i just read, it's not China we

have to worry about, keep your ears and eyes open and wait for the

sleeping tiger,, Japan, then world economy will really spiral out of

control.

Keep trying and keep pluggin away at that.

But you'd need to know it's a dead end.

Japan is a serious global reserve currency and it is seriously in the SDR basket of IMF. Being seriously each means Japan can go into the SDR basket to draw on it anytime simply by exchanging yen.

Japan's great asset which bends the mind of the global right and Donald Trump because it's beyond them, is that Japan as does USA run a sovereign debt. Countries that run a sovereign debt contribute mightily to global capital growth. They deal in capital, not trade prices, Sovereign debt provides the global liquidity to facilitate capital growth.

CCP's capital market is closed. It always has been closed. CCP contributes nothing to real capital growth. Its capital market will always remain closed because if CCP opens it, CCP China will become a market economy and CCP will lose control over its artificial and corrupt command economy. In other words, CCP kaput.

Japan's capital market is open. Its capital market includes $20 Trillion of household financial assets alone. (Eurozone = $24 Trillion; USA = $50 Trillion.) CCP Chinese have large household savings but housing assets are bursting and the yuan is submerging. CCP debt to GDP ratio is now $300% and shooting up like Jack's beanstalk with nothing to back it up, no foundation.

CCP needs usd desperately so it's peddling huge amounts of T-Bills from its forex reserves. Odd thing is, the more usd CCP brings in, the fewer yuan there are, which means CCP needs more usd. It's called a dead end. The abyss. Japan is as far away from that as just about any country can get.

So do keep on chasing your tail on this stuff. It's what CCP Boyz themselves are doing.

[Publicus]

It doesn't look good. But who knows what tomorrow holds. China is a key part of the global economy.

So the media wants us to think so, i have just been ''gob smacked'',,

that is, smacked in the face by a story i just read, it's not China we

have to worry about, keep your ears and eyes open and wait for the

sleeping tiger,, Japan, then world economy will really spiral out of

control.

Hey, first quarter last year CCP China went into deflation.

Prices in China have gone into the tank, decreasing, decreasing, decreasing. It's one major reason manufacuring is off, bank lending is off and payments of bank loans are off, business inventories are piled up, unemployment is up, imports of consumer goods are down, exports have tanked etc etc.

If as you comically claim Japan in a long term deflation is going down the tubes, then why would CCP China not crash too?

I rarely ask a question at TVF (because replies come from the moon) but this one is too precious to pass up.

[Publicus]

It doesn't look good. But who knows what tomorrow holds. China is a key part of the global economy.

Not any more.

It's become a drag on the global economy.

It's not unexpected so markets are in a sense prepared for it. Still, being prepared doesn't mean it will be smooth or uneventful. This can be contained or controlled only to a certain extent.

[saakura]

Sorry to be such an ignoramus, but what does CCP stand for?

[Usernames]

Sorry to be such an ignoramus, but what does CCP stand for?

Crackpot Chinese Politicians.

[tonbridgebrit]

So the media wants us to think so, i have just been ''gob smacked'',,

that is, smacked in the face by a story i just read, it's not China we

have to worry about, keep your ears and eyes open and wait for the

sleeping tiger,, Japan, then world economy will really spiral out of

control.

Keep trying and keep pluggin away at that.

But you'd need to know it's a dead end.

Japan is a serious global reserve currency and it is seriously in the SDR basket of IMF. Being seriously each means Japan can go into the SDR basket to draw on it anytime simply by exchanging yen.

Japan's great asset which bends the mind of the global right and Donald Trump because it's beyond them, is that Japan as does USA run a sovereign debt. Countries that run a sovereign debt contribute mightily to global capital growth. They deal in capital, not trade prices, Sovereign debt provides the global liquidity to facilitate capital growth.

CCP's capital market is closed. It always has been closed. CCP contributes nothing to real capital growth. Its capital market will always remain closed because if CCP opens it, CCP China will become a market economy and CCP will lose control over its artificial and corrupt command economy. In other words, CCP kaput.

Japan's capital market is open. Its capital market includes $20 Trillion of household financial assets alone. (Eurozone = $24 Trillion; USA = $50 Trillion.) CCP Chinese have large household savings but housing assets are bursting and the yuan is submerging. CCP debt to GDP ratio is now $300% and shooting up like Jack's beanstalk with nothing to back it up, no foundation.

CCP needs usd desperately so it's peddling huge amounts of T-Bills from its forex reserves. Odd thing is, the more usd CCP brings in, the fewer yuan there are, which means CCP needs more usd. It's called a dead end. The abyss. Japan is as far away from that as just about any country can get.

So do keep on chasing your tail on this stuff. It's what CCP Boyz themselves are doing.

So the media wants us to think so, i have just been ''gob smacked'',,

that is, smacked in the face by a story i just read, it's not China we

have to worry about, keep your ears and eyes open and wait for the

sleeping tiger,, Japan, then world economy will really spiral out of

control.

Hey, first quarter last year CCP China went into deflation.

Prices in China have gone into the tank, decreasing, decreasing, decreasing. It's one major reason manufacuring is off, bank lending is off and payments of bank loans are off, business inventories are piled up, unemployment is up, imports of consumer goods are down, exports have tanked etc etc.

If as you comically claim Japan in a long term deflation is going down the tubes, then why would CCP China not crash too?

I rarely ask a question at TVF (because replies come from the moon) but this one is too precious to pass up.

What ??? Japan ???

Look, Japan has been in RECESSION for 25 years (that's a quarter of a century) and I predict another 25 years of recession. Yes, Japan's been in recession since 1990.

Japan's export of high technology goods to America and the EU has not replaced the mountain of goods (cars, motorbikes, videos, televisions, other electricals, etc) it exported back in the 1980s and prior to that. Also, Japan has one of the lowest birth-rates in the world, it's going through negative population growth, this is when the population actually shrinks on an annual basis. This doesn't do the economy any good, Japan's population will be a fair bit smaller in twenty years from now compared to today. And loads of them will be retired and collecting a pension.

As for China, the US and EU are importing a mountain of Chinese manufactured goods, how much is Wal Mart's monthly import bill from China ? We all know that there's no point in re-building those factories in America and Europe, it makes more sense to import from China. It's cheaper that way. And China still has a vast pool of cheap labour, China will simply carry on exporting, which is what's causing the economic growth and financing their giant infra-structure projects.

And no, I don't think countries like Thailand and Vietnam will replace China when exporting to the EU and US. Their populations are not actually big enough to provide the vast pool of factory workers needed. Remember, usually only a small percentage of the population wants to work in a facory, that's why Thailand and Vietnam will not be able to produce a massive mountain of goods for export.

[Publicus]

Sorry to be such an ignoramus, but what does CCP stand for?

Chinese Communist Party.

Chinese Communist Party rules over China as a one-party state. It has two major factions which are pro-market reform and anti-free market. It has several minor factions which have mixed views of a market vs a command economy, democracy vs dictatorship.

Chinese Communist Party is the largest political party of the world due to its having 86,000,000 members. Nothing good in history has ever come out of a one-party state.

CCP has a Central Committee which has a smaller Politburo from whose members come an elite Standing Committee. The seven-member Standing Committee rules collectively day to day. It includes Chairman Xi Jinping and the English fluent prime minister Li Kejiang.

Xi runs everything, but focuses on military, foreign, the party, domestic security. Li is chairman of the Chinese State Council, or ministers of all government departments. The Party is supreme to everything. The party secretary of a province, for example, is superior to the governor. Same for a county executive, who is under the county party secretary; mulicipalities too.

Xi and LI are a Standing Committee reformer team of two, chosen by the Politburo from among the Central Committee. The selection process is not a voting one; it is a knock 'em down and drag 'em out process until seven of 'em walk out on the stage standing physically bruised but erect. It's classic one for all, all for one, and every man for himself. Consequently, Xi and Li get outvoted on the Standing Committee, 5-2, which does actually decide by voting. And which is why Xi is still struggling to accomplish any of the goals of he and his faction.

The PLA, or People's Liberation Army, is under the CCP which is the state. PLA is the military arm of the Chinese Communist Party. As Party chairman, Xi Jinping is the head of state to include commander in chief of the Party's armed forces. Nothing in the CCP China ranks above the Chinese Communist Party. Nothing.

[saakura]

Sorry to be such an ignoramus, but what does CCP stand for?

Chinese Communist Party.

Chinese Communist Party rules over China as a one-party state. It has two major factions which are pro-market reform and anti-free market. It has several minor factions which have mixed views of a market vs a command economy, democracy vs dictatorship.

Chinese Communist Party is the largest political party of the world due to its having 86,000,000 members. Nothing good in history has ever come out of a one-party state.

CCP has a Central Committee which has a smaller Politburo which has an elite Standing Committee. The seven-member Standing Committee rules collectively day to day. It includes Chairman Xi Jinping and the English fluent prime minister Li Kejiang.

Xi runs everything, but focuses on military, foreign, the party. Li is chairman of the CCP State Council, or ministers of all government departments. The Party is supreme to everything. The party secretary of a province, for example, is superior to the governor. Same for a county executive, who is under the county party secretary; mulicipalities too. They are a market reformer team of two, chosen by the Politburo from among the Central Committee. The selection process is not a voting one; it is a knock 'em down and drag 'em out process until seven of 'em walk out on the stage standing physically bruised but erect.

The PLA, or People's Liberation Army, is under the CCP which is the state. PLA is the military arm of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi Jinping is the head of state and the party chairman. Nothing in the CCP China ranks above the Chinese Communist Party. Nothing.

Thanks, you seem to have a very deep knowledge in their economic and political matters.

[Publicus]

<<>snip>

Japan is a serious global reserve currency and it is seriously in the SDR basket of IMF. Being seriously each means Japan can go into the SDR basket to draw on it anytime simply by exchanging yen.

Japan's great asset which bends the mind of the global right and Donald Trump because it's beyond them, is that Japan as does USA run a sovereign debt. Countries that run a sovereign debt contribute mightily to global capital growth. They deal in capital, not trade prices, Sovereign debt provides the global liquidity to facilitate capital growth.

CCP's capital market is closed. It always has been closed. CCP contributes nothing to real capital growth. Its capital market will always remain closed because if CCP opens it, CCP China will become a market economy and CCP will lose control over its artificial and corrupt command economy. In other words, CCP kaput.

Japan's capital market is open. Its capital market includes $20 Trillion of household financial assets alone. (Eurozone = $24 Trillion; USA = $50 Trillion.) CCP Chinese have large household savings but housing assets are bursting and the yuan is submerging. CCP debt to GDP ratio is now $300% and shooting up like Jack's beanstalk with nothing to back it up, no foundation.

CCP needs usd desperately so it's peddling huge amounts of T-Bills from its forex reserves. Odd thing is, the more usd CCP brings in, the fewer yuan there are, which means CCP needs more usd. It's called a dead end. The abyss. Japan is as far away from that as just about any country can get.

So do keep on chasing your tail on this stuff. It's what CCP Boyz themselves are doing.

So the media wants us to think so, i have just been ''gob smacked'',,

that is, smacked in the face by a story i just read, it's not China we

have to worry about, keep your ears and eyes open and wait for the

sleeping tiger,, Japan, then world economy will really spiral out of

control.

Hey, first quarter last year CCP China went into deflation.

Prices in China have gone into the tank, decreasing, decreasing, decreasing. It's one major reason manufacuring is off, bank lending is off and payments of bank loans are off, business inventories are piled up, unemployment is up, imports of consumer goods are down, exports have tanked etc etc.

If as you comically claim Japan in a long term deflation is going down the tubes, then why would CCP China not crash too?

I rarely ask a question at TVF (because replies come from the moon) but this one is too precious to pass up.

What ??? Japan ???

Look, Japan has been in RECESSION for 25 years (that's a quarter of a century) and I predict another 25 years of recession. Yes, Japan's been in recession since 1990.

Japan's export of high technology goods to America and the EU has not replaced the mountain of goods (cars, motorbikes, videos, televisions, other electricals, etc) it exported back in the 1980s and prior to that. Also, Japan has one of the lowest birth-rates in the world, it's going through negative population growth, this is when the population actually shrinks on an annual basis. This doesn't do the economy any good, Japan's population will be a fair bit smaller in twenty years from now compared to today. And loads of them will be retired and collecting a pension.

As for China, the US and EU are importing a mountain of Chinese manufactured goods, how much is Wal Mart's monthly import bill from China ? We all know that there's no point in re-building those factories in America and Europe, it makes more sense to import from China. It's cheaper that way. And China still has a vast pool of cheap labour, China will simply carry on exporting, which is what's causing the economic growth and financing their giant infra-structure projects.

And no, I don't think countries like Thailand and Vietnam will replace China when exporting to the EU and US. Their populations are not actually big enough to provide the vast pool of factory workers needed. Remember, usually only a small percentage of the population wants to work in a facory, that's why Thailand and Vietnam will not be able to produce a massive mountain of goods for export.

Thx for every occasion of your posts to present instead the accurate and real situation.

An economically zero-growth Japan is fixed at a GDP (by PPP) per capita as the second wealthiest country of the world. The fact hasn't changed for a long long time nor will it change for a long long time, if ever.

The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Japan was last recorded at $37,595.18 US dollars in 2014. The GDP per Capita in Japan is equivalent to 298 percent of the world's average. GDP per capita in Japan averaged $25,357.33 USD from 1960 until 2014, reaching an all time high of $37,595.18 USD in 2014 and a record low of $7,079.43 USD in 1960. GDP per capita in Japan is reported by the World Bank.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita

A zero-growth very wealthy Japan has been and will continue to be better off than a CCP China growing 14% annually forever. If CCP grew at 14% annually for 40 years it still would not catch up to the present Japan, or the Japan going forward. Don't worry yourself to death about Japan. S Korea is rich with 48 million people, Taiwan is rich with 23 million Tiawanese, and Singapore is rich with 4 million mostly people of Chinese ancestry.

As a maturing China moves beyond the low-end manufacturing and export-led model that defined its dramatic three-decade rise, a new group of countries is emerging to assume that role in the global economy. The outlines of this group, what we call the Post-China 16, or "PC16," are only now coming into focus. Indeed, the specific countries may change and the precise roles they play in this transition — their success in following the path China has trod — remain to be fully seen.

https://www.stratfor.com/image/post-china-16-ascendant-manufacturing-countries

The CCP manufacturing replacement or successor countries are already identified and getting the new business leaving the CCP China the past several years. Note that among Asean countries Thailand is out in the cold...again, and will continue to be left out as long as present (and past) trends dominate.

Thailand is standing still indefinitely in its present state of development and at its present level of GDP and GDP per capita. That is not a good place to be in. (I don't post to Thailand News Forum any more because of my views, which are that it is tragic the country is reverting to a pre-Industrial Revolution feudalism by means of a 20th century pre-WW2 fascism.)

The fanboyz of the CCP China, Russia and all the Bricks etc etc are tough and persistent cases but the casual reader is more balanced and open. I respond to the tough case posters but it is always the casual reader I address thx.

[Publicus]

Sorry to be such an ignoramus, but what does CCP stand for?

Chinese Communist Party.

Chinese Communist Party rules over China as a one-party state. It has two major factions which are pro-market reform and anti-free market. It has several minor factions which have mixed views of a market vs a command economy, democracy vs dictatorship.

Chinese Communist Party is the largest political party of the world due to its having 86,000,000 members. Nothing good in history has ever come out of a one-party state.

CCP has a Central Committee which has a smaller Politburo which has an elite Standing Committee. The seven-member Standing Committee rules collectively day to day. It includes Chairman Xi Jinping and the English fluent prime minister Li Kejiang.

Xi runs everything, but focuses on military, foreign, the party. Li is chairman of the CCP State Council, or ministers of all government departments. The Party is supreme to everything. The party secretary of a province, for example, is superior to the governor. Same for a county executive, who is under the county party secretary; mulicipalities too. They are a market reformer team of two, chosen by the Politburo from among the Central Committee. The selection process is not a voting one; it is a knock 'em down and drag 'em out process until seven of 'em walk out on the stage standing physically bruised but erect.

The PLA, or People's Liberation Army, is under the CCP which is the state. PLA is the military arm of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi Jinping is the head of state and the party chairman. Nothing in the CCP China ranks above the Chinese Communist Party. Nothing.

Thanks, you seem to have a very deep knowledge in their economic and political matters.

Well anyway thanks for the question and the generosity of comment.

This might be of a particular interest relative to the CCP and the sharp decline of the CCP's China. It is an article that proverbially writes volumes.

In the US there was the television program The Sopranos. In CCP China there is the reality of the sudden emergence of what looks like a revolutionary term, The Zhous. Everyone is suddenly using it daily, online especially. It might be more powerful than Tiananmen in 1989, the Arab Spring or any color revolution the CCP has worked fiercely to preclude in their own private Potemkin Village. And it is a simple two-word term that can and has begun to be used everywhere by anyone who wants to use it. It is what CCP has always feared most, use of everyday language by ordinary people to pull back the curtain on 'em.

As the year 2015 was drawing to its end, a new expression was born on China’s social media: “the Zhaos” (“赵家人”). New phrases pop up regularly online in China, but “the Zhaos” has been hailed as revolutionary. Never has an expression captured the essence of China’s politics and economy with such pithiness and precision—that a class of people thinks China belongs to them, acts like its owner, and is indeed the owner.

The theory of social collapse is the most important theoretical contribution of professor Sun Liping (孙立平), and the most original part of it is to establish the dichotomy of “them” and “us” (“他们”与“我们”). Many of us have probably heard or read Sun Liping’s lectures, but we didn’t quite get it at the time. Now that “the Zhaos” phrase has come out, suddenly everything makes sense.

http://chinachange.org/2016/01/06/the-zhaos-the-demarcation-of-a-divide/

[NeverSure]

-snip-

As for China, the US and EU are importing a mountain of Chinese manufactured goods, how much is Wal Mart's monthly import bill from China ? We all know that there's no point in re-building those factories in America and Europe, it makes more sense to import from China. It's cheaper that way. And China still has a vast pool of cheap labour, China will simply carry on exporting, which is what's causing the economic growth and financing their giant infra-structure projects.

"We all know that there's no point in re-building those factories in America and Europe, it makes more sense to import from China. It's cheaper that way. And China still has a vast pool of cheap labour..."

This simply isn't true. Labor is no longer cheap in China and many companies are either moving or opening up in even cheaper countries. Some of the biggest new factories are in Mexico where many American engines and transmissions are made.

One real issue is shipping costs. China lacks a lot of raw materials. For instance, before that clothing can be made to sell in Walmart, the cotton has to first be grown in the US and then shipped to China and of course then shipped back. That's a losing proposition in an age of robots where the US has developed a way to make clothing without human intervention.

Don't forget that the US has 17 different companies manufacturing cars domestically. That includes all of the Japanese companies. Your new Honda or Toyota is made in the USA.

Don't think for a minute that the US has forgotten how to manufacture or that it isn't forging ahead with robotics and things like 3D printing. There are more jobs returning to the US from China than are leaving the US for China. No cheap foreign laborer can compete with a robot. Robots will make the cheap Chinese laborer obsolete in 20 years, and then what will China do since it doesn't have any of its own technology or raw materials to manufacture with?

The "Age of China" is once again over. When is the last time you ever saw a closed government, communist country succeed economically, long term?

Cheers.

[tonbridgebrit]

What ??? Japan ???

Look, Japan has been in RECESSION for 25 years (that's a quarter of a century) and I predict another 25 years of recession. Yes, Japan's been in recession since 1990.

Japan's export of high technology goods to America and the EU has not replaced the mountain of goods (cars, motorbikes, videos, televisions, other electricals, etc) it exported back in the 1980s and prior to that. Also, Japan has one of the lowest birth-rates in the world, it's going through negative population growth, this is when the population actually shrinks on an annual basis. This doesn't do the economy any good, Japan's population will be a fair bit smaller in twenty years from now compared to today. And loads of them will be retired and collecting a pension.

As for China, the US and EU are importing a mountain of Chinese manufactured goods, how much is Wal Mart's monthly import bill from China ? We all know that there's no point in re-building those factories in America and Europe, it makes more sense to import from China. It's cheaper that way. And China still has a vast pool of cheap labour, China will simply carry on exporting, which is what's causing the economic growth and financing their giant infra-structure projects.

And no, I don't think countries like Thailand and Vietnam will replace China when exporting to the EU and US. Their populations are not actually big enough to provide the vast pool of factory workers needed. Remember, usually only a small percentage of the population wants to work in a facory, that's why Thailand and Vietnam will not be able to produce a massive mountain of goods for export.

Thx for every occasion of your posts to present instead the accurate and real situation.

An economically zero-growth Japan is fixed at a GDP (by PPP) per capita as the second wealthiest country of the world. The fact hasn't changed for a long long time nor will it change for a long long time, if ever.

The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Japan was last recorded at $37,595.18 US dollars in 2014. The GDP per Capita in Japan is equivalent to 298 percent of the world's average. GDP per capita in Japan averaged $25,357.33 USD from 1960 until 2014, reaching an all time high of $37,595.18 USD in 2014 and a record low of $7,079.43 USD in 1960. GDP per capita in Japan is reported by the World Bank.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita

A zero-growth very wealthy Japan has been and will continue to be better off than a CCP China growing 14% annually forever. If CCP grew at 14% annually for 40 years it still would not catch up to the present Japan, or the Japan going forward. Don't worry yourself to death about Japan. S Korea is rich with 48 million people, Taiwan is rich with 23 million Tiawanese, and Singapore is rich with 4 million mostly people of Chinese ancestry.

As a maturing China moves beyond the low-end manufacturing and export-led model that defined its dramatic three-decade rise, a new group of countries is emerging to assume that role in the global economy. The outlines of this group, what we call the Post-China 16, or "PC16," are only now coming into focus. Indeed, the specific countries may change and the precise roles they play in this transition — their success in following the path China has trod — remain to be fully seen.

https://www.stratfor.com/image/post-china-16-ascendant-manufacturing-countries

The CCP manufacturing replacement or successor countries are already identified and getting the new business leaving the CCP China the past several years. Note that among Asean countries Thailand is out in the cold...again, and will continue to be left out as long as present (and past) trends dominate.

Thailand is standing still indefinitely in its present state of development and at its present level of GDP and GDP per capita. That is not a good place to be in. (I don't post to Thailand News Forum any more because of my views, which are that it is tragic the country is reverting to a pre-Industrial Revolution feudalism by means of a 20th century pre-WW2 fascism.)

The fanboyz of the CCP China, Russia and all the Bricks etc etc are tough and persistent cases but the casual reader is more balanced and open. I respond to the tough case posters but it is always the casual reader I address thx.

Talk about Japan. Yes, Japan's GDP per person has not shrunk since 1990, but everybody in economics knows that Japan has practically been in recession since 1990. The Nikkei Dow Jones Index is still far lower today than what it was at it's peak in the late 1980s !

And from wikipedia, "The Japanese population is rapidly aging as a result of a post–World War II baby boom followed by a decrease in birth rates. In 2012, about 24.1 percent of the population was over 65, and the proportion is projected to rise to almost 40 percent by 2050". And also "Japan's population is expected to drop to 95 million by 2050;^[166][171] demographers and government planners are currently in a heated debate over how to cope with this problem".

Basically, Japan has got problems, and no, there will not be an increase in the number of Japanese tourists in London and Paris (and indeed, in Thailand too). That's because there's less and less Japanese as time goes by.

That map that has been put up. Who are "Stratfor Global Inteeligence" ??

Some of the views, regarding the 16 nations who are going to replace China, are absurd ! Yes, Mexico, does have a bright future. They might as well scrap the Mexico-USA border because it's becoming irrelevant. America needs new and 'competitively priced' labour, yes, it makes sense to draft in the Mexicans. The other nations in the Americas on that map, there populations are far too small to have an impact on world trade (America and the EU's imports).

Africa ? They didn't mention South Africa and Nigeria, the two biggest economies in Africa. And those two countries are unfortunately still massively reliant on their exports of natural resources to generate very mdest economic growth. Nobody reckons that Ethiopia and Tanzania will be exporting flat-screen televisions to the EU and America in the future !

The Asian nations ? Cambodia and Laos have insignicant population sizes, and are Vietnam's exports of manufactured goods growing faster than China's growth ?? Burma is a closed nation, the junta there is not actually interested in opening up Burma to trade and tourism, they've been in charge for decades.

Indonesa and the Phillippines lack the infra-strucure needed. They've simply not expanded their manufacturing bases for decades, why have belief that they will replace China when it comes to exporting a mountain of cheap goods to China ? What's going to happen in the next two decades that will be going to expand their manufacturing bases, bearing in mind that it hasn't happened so far ?

It would be easier to consider that the EU will be re-building it's factories in Poland and Romania (and Bulgaria) and trying to make it's own goods rather than import from China. But this scenario does look pretty unlikely !!

[tonbridgebrit]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-bets-americans-buy-cars-052858963.html

"General Motors will be placing a big bet the American public is willing to drive a car built in China when it unveils the Buick Envision on Sunday night

The largest US automaker is certainly not trying to bring it to market quietly: Buick's latest sport utility vehicle will be introduced at a lavish party on the eve of the Detroit auto show in the hopes of maximizing media coverage."


Let's face it, CAPITALISM, we will look for where is the more competitively priced labour (cheaper labour) and put our factory there. Is China really collapsing ?

[Usernames]

What ??? Japan ???

Look, Japan has been in RECESSION for 25 years (that's a quarter of a century) and I predict another 25 years of recession. Yes, Japan's been in recession since 1990.

Japan's export of high technology goods to America and the EU has not replaced the mountain of goods (cars, motorbikes, videos, televisions, other electricals, etc) it exported back in the 1980s and prior to that. Also, Japan has one of the lowest birth-rates in the world, it's going through negative population growth, this is when the population actually shrinks on an annual basis. This doesn't do the economy any good, Japan's population will be a fair bit smaller in twenty years from now compared to today. And loads of them will be retired and collecting a pension.

As for China, the US and EU are importing a mountain of Chinese manufactured goods, how much is Wal Mart's monthly import bill from China ? We all know that there's no point in re-building those factories in America and Europe, it makes more sense to import from China. It's cheaper that way. And China still has a vast pool of cheap labour, China will simply carry on exporting, which is what's causing the economic growth and financing their giant infra-structure projects.

And no, I don't think countries like Thailand and Vietnam will replace China when exporting to the EU and US. Their populations are not actually big enough to provide the vast pool of factory workers needed. Remember, usually only a small percentage of the population wants to work in a facory, that's why Thailand and Vietnam will not be able to produce a massive mountain of goods for export.

Thx for every occasion of your posts to present instead the accurate and real situation.

An economically zero-growth Japan is fixed at a GDP (by PPP) per capita as the second wealthiest country of the world. The fact hasn't changed for a long long time nor will it change for a long long time, if ever.

The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Japan was last recorded at $37,595.18 US dollars in 2014. The GDP per Capita in Japan is equivalent to 298 percent of the world's average. GDP per capita in Japan averaged $25,357.33 USD from 1960 until 2014, reaching an all time high of $37,595.18 USD in 2014 and a record low of $7,079.43 USD in 1960. GDP per capita in Japan is reported by the World Bank.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita

A zero-growth very wealthy Japan has been and will continue to be better off than a CCP China growing 14% annually forever. If CCP grew at 14% annually for 40 years it still would not catch up to the present Japan, or the Japan going forward. Don't worry yourself to death about Japan. S Korea is rich with 48 million people, Taiwan is rich with 23 million Tiawanese, and Singapore is rich with 4 million mostly people of Chinese ancestry.

As a maturing China moves beyond the low-end manufacturing and export-led model that defined its dramatic three-decade rise, a new group of countries is emerging to assume that role in the global economy. The outlines of this group, what we call the Post-China 16, or "PC16," are only now coming into focus. Indeed, the specific countries may change and the precise roles they play in this transition — their success in following the path China has trod — remain to be fully seen.

https://www.stratfor.com/image/post-china-16-ascendant-manufacturing-countries

The CCP manufacturing replacement or successor countries are already identified and getting the new business leaving the CCP China the past several years. Note that among Asean countries Thailand is out in the cold...again, and will continue to be left out as long as present (and past) trends dominate.

Thailand is standing still indefinitely in its present state of development and at its present level of GDP and GDP per capita. That is not a good place to be in. (I don't post to Thailand News Forum any more because of my views, which are that it is tragic the country is reverting to a pre-Industrial Revolution feudalism by means of a 20th century pre-WW2 fascism.)

The fanboyz of the CCP China, Russia and all the Bricks etc etc are tough and persistent cases but the casual reader is more balanced and open. I respond to the tough case posters but it is always the casual reader I address thx.

Talk about Japan. Yes, Japan's GDP per person has not shrunk since 1990, but everybody in economics knows that Japan has practically been in recession since 1990. The Nikkei Dow Jones Index is still far lower today than what it was at it's peak in the late 1980s !

And from wikipedia, "The Japanese population is rapidly aging as a result of a post–World War II baby boom followed by a decrease in birth rates. In 2012, about 24.1 percent of the population was over 65, and the proportion is projected to rise to almost 40 percent by 2050". And also "Japan's population is expected to drop to 95 million by 2050;^[166][171] demographers and government planners are currently in a heated debate over how to cope with this problem".

Basically, Japan has got problems, and no, there will not be an increase in the number of Japanese tourists in London and Paris (and indeed, in Thailand too). That's because there's less and less Japanese as time goes by.

That map that has been put up. Who are "Stratfor Global Inteeligence" ??

Some of the views, regarding the 16 nations who are going to replace China, are absurd ! Yes, Mexico, does have a bright future. They might as well scrap the Mexico-USA border because it's becoming irrelevant. America needs new and 'competitively priced' labour, yes, it makes sense to draft in the Mexicans. The other nations in the Americas on that map, there populations are far too small to have an impact on world trade (America and the EU's imports).

Africa ? They didn't mention South Africa and Nigeria, the two biggest economies in Africa. And those two countries are unfortunately still massively reliant on their exports of natural resources to generate very mdest economic growth. Nobody reckons that Ethiopia and Tanzania will be exporting flat-screen televisions to the EU and America in the future !

The Asian nations ? Cambodia and Laos have insignicant population sizes, and are Vietnam's exports of manufactured goods growing faster than China's growth ?? Burma is a closed nation, the junta there is not actually interested in opening up Burma to trade and tourism, they've been in charge for decades.

Indonesa and the Phillippines lack the infra-strucure needed. They've simply not expanded their manufacturing bases for decades, why have belief that they will replace China when it comes to exporting a mountain of cheap goods to China ? What's going to happen in the next two decades that will be going to expand their manufacturing bases, bearing in mind that it hasn't happened so far ?

It would be easier to consider that the EU will be re-building it's factories in Poland and Romania (and Bulgaria) and trying to make it's own goods rather than import from China. But this scenario does look pretty unlikely !!

Why is a declining Japanese population a problem? They've invested heavily into robots. Automation will take care of much of the worker demand. All across the world, automation is going to leave legions of people unemployed and unemployable. And there will be less stress on the environment (unlike polluted, dangerous, filthy China) with fewer people. Japan looks like the future to me. Population ponzi schemes are a road to disaster.