Black Friday in China - Can Thailand shelter from the storm

[autanic]

Friday is the Sabbath in Islam, it is the end of the working week for the rest/most of us.

In the stock exchanges around the world, it is the end of a volatile week, especially in China, where the market has been suspended twice this week. Using the automatic break. The Chinese Authorities have stated, that on Friday 8th January 2016, they will not apply the break, bearing in mind that Friday is the sell off day. Shall we speculate what may happen ?

Stock Markets will fall around the globe, the Shanghai Index may fall as much as 12% before rebounding back to 8% down on the day.

Investors shy about plunging gaps in the Chinese Economy will look for safer havens to make a profit and ply their trade, like Property in Thailand. This may over heat the housing market especially in Bangkok and see a increase in inflation with an even stronger Thai Baht.

A new housing bubble before the last has popped means Thai Property especially in Bangkok and Beach front Condos are going to the place where Chinese Middle classes put their money over the next 6-12 months at least.

The increase in house building and infra structure will lead to steady growth in the short term in Thailand.

So for now it is more of the same, HPI and a strong THB.

Can Thailand shelter from the storm, yes at least in the short term.

[Thian]

Why is that they have a breaksystem to stop the markets from plunging but not use it today?

Also this isn't good for Thai tourism/exports. The baht should devaluate but that isn't going to happen if they chinese buy all property.

[Gutenberg]

I thought to list sponsored content at this forum it needs to be paid?

[bangmai]

A lot of their losses are with credit/margin, so that is money they borrowed to begin with; not money they need to find a safe place for. Condo prices are flat or down in most parts of LOS.

[pchansmorn]

I don't understand, everywhere I go in Thailand I see building going on, how can there be so many people who can afford to buy these new condo's. And what about all the buildings that are left unfinished, what eye sores, they should be forced to finish them or tear them down. I guess soon China will pretty much take over & run Thailand. Good or bad who knows.

[sandyf]

Posted on the forex datafeed.

* Barclays: INR, PHP and THB are less vulnerable to CNY depreciation given the lower share of trade in their GDP and their more limited competition with China in third markets

Source: FXWire FX4Cast

8. January 2016 14:20:52

[sandyf]

" the Shanghai Index may fall as much as 12% before rebounding back to 8% down on the day. "

Closed 2% up on the day, 10% down on the week.

[Laza 45]

Why is that they have a breaksystem to stop the markets from plunging but not use it today?

Also this isn't good for Thai tourism/exports. The baht should devaluate but that isn't going to happen if they chinese buy all property.

They stopped the break system because.., when markets opened again everybody wanted to sell while they could.. creating an avalanche of selling.. creating a downward spiral.. by opening the market the hope is that people will become more rational and trade will be more stable.. also they revalued the Yuan upwards and have calmed the market.. for the time being.. The Bt will eventually stabilize at a rate that is favorable for international trade.. this could take awhile.. Americans are very nervous.. panic there would make 2008 look like a minor correction.. Interest rates can't go much lower and none of the developed countries has money in the bank to stimulate their economies.. The only option left is to print more money.. probably not a good idea.. The sea is rough and there is no map.. Good luck.. I hope you are holding cash..

[Kabula]

This will have a dramatic affect on China's currency in time, leading to a devaluation and the financial contagion will spread worldwide in my opinion. My question is can the world financial system shelter the storm?

[Srikcir]

Can Thailand shelter from the storm?

2016-01-07

The main SET index opened at 1,235.33 points, down 24.71 points or 1.96%, from Wednesday’s close.
The SET 50 index opened at 769.21 points, down 20.81 points or 2.63%
The MAI index was down 5.47 points or 1.08%

However by 11 am, the main index edged up slowly to 1,240 points, down 19 points

No, at least in the short term.

[Thian]

Why is that they have a breaksystem to stop the markets from plunging but not use it today?

Also this isn't good for Thai tourism/exports. The baht should devaluate but that isn't going to happen if they chinese buy all property.

They stopped the break system because.., when markets opened again everybody wanted to sell while they could.. creating an avalanche of selling.. creating a downward spiral.. by opening the market the hope is that people will become more rational and trade will be more stable.. also they revalued the Yuan upwards and have calmed the market.. for the time being.. The Bt will eventually stabilize at a rate that is favorable for international trade.. this could take awhile.. Americans are very nervous.. panic there would make 2008 look like a minor correction.. Interest rates can't go much lower and none of the developed countries has money in the bank to stimulate their economies.. The only option left is to print more money.. probably not a good idea.. The sea is rough and there is no map.. Good luck.. I hope you are holding cash..

I know why they use breaksystems on the markets but my question is that why did don't they use it today?

Is this day so special or different then other days?

Holding cash is not smart if they are printing money, better hold big debts.

Americans should devaluate the $ as well since it got expensive against the euro. They should create jobs and export as much as they can but that doesn't work with a strong $.

[elgordo38]

Why is that they have a breaksystem to stop the markets from plunging but not use it today?

Also this isn't good for Thai tourism/exports. The baht should devaluate but that isn't going to happen if they chinese buy all property.

The markets are all fixed and crooked. They party and drink Champagne on the way up but when things collapse its circuit breakers and brokers step in with cash to "make" the market. In China in a falling market insiders are frozen out and short selling forbidden, plus other tricks. Its a suckers game at best.

[Asiantravel]

according to the enormous size of the problem as described by J. Kyle Bass no country will be able to shelter from the economic fallout which is coming.. this is the man who correctly predicted and profited hugely from the subprime collapse in 2008 and in this interview with CNBC below discusses what he regards is the biggest threat to the entire global financial system . He is the founder and principal of Hayman Capital Management

This Is The $3.5 Trillion "Neutron Bomb" That Keeps Kyle Bass Up At Night

Here is the highlight of what he said

" What I think the narrative will swing to by the end of this year if not sooner, is the real issue in China is not simply that profits have peaked. The real issue is the size of their banking system. Do you remember the reason the European countries ended up falling like dominoes during the European crisis was their banking systems became many multiples of their GDP and therefore many, many multiples of their central government revenue. In China, in dollar terms their banking system is almost $35 trillion against a GDP of $10 and their banking system has grown 400% in 8 years with non-performing loans being nonexistent. So what we are going to see next is a credit cycle, and in a credit cycle you see some losses, but if China's banking system loses 10%, you are going to see them lose $3.5 trillion. "

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000476898&play=1

Edited January 9, 2016 by Asiantravel

[Thian]

according to the enormous size of the problem as described by J. Kyle Bass no country will be able to shelter from the economic fallout which is coming.. this is the man who correctly predicted and profited hugely from the subprime collapse in 2008 and in this interview with CNBC below discusses what he regards is the biggest threat to the entire global financial system . He is the founder and principal of Hayman Capital Management

This Is The $3.5 Trillion "Neutron Bomb" That Keeps Kyle Bass Up At Night

Here is the highlight of what he said

" What I think the narrative will swing to by the end of this year if not sooner, is the real issue in China is not simply that profits have peaked. The real issue is the size of their banking system. Do you remember the reason the European countries ended up falling like dominoes during the European crisis was their banking systems became many multiples of their GDP and therefore many, many multiples of their central government revenue. In China, in dollar terms their banking system is almost $35 trillion against a GDP of $10 and their banking system has grown 400% in 8 years with non-performing loans being nonexistent. So what we are going to see next is a credit cycle, and in a credit cycle you see some losses, but if China's banking system loses 10%, you are going to see them lose $3.5 trillion. "

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000476898&play=1

The reason the EU banks fell like dominostones was because they ALL bought the bad loans from their "friends" in the USA. They all thought nothing could go wrong and then suddenly they found out those loans were nothing more then baked air.

It was a huge scam and we're still waiting for the damage to be paid, me personally 500.000 euro.

Whatever you americans think of it, we think about it our way...the scam was caused by the USA and they got us by the balls.

The next scam was the help Greece got from Goldman Sachs so they could join the Euro...That also costed us loads of money.

[KarenBravo]

I guess soon China will pretty much take over & run Thailand. Good or bad who knows.

The Chinese do and have done for decades.....

[Assurancetourix]

And today , monday 11 january 2016 black monday on stock exchange Shanghai & Shenzen

" The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 5.3% at 3016.70 and the smaller Shenzhen Composite Index ended down 6.6% at 1848.10 "

http://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-markets-poised-for-shaky-start-to-week-1452469350

[lannarebirth]

Why is that they have a breaksystem to stop the markets from plunging but not use it today?

Also this isn't good for Thai tourism/exports. The baht should devaluate but that isn't going to happen if they chinese buy all property.

They stopped the break system because.., when markets opened again everybody wanted to sell while they could.. creating an avalanche of selling.. creating a downward spiral.. by opening the market the hope is that people will become more rational and trade will be more stable.. also they revalued the Yuan upwards and have calmed the market.. for the time being.. The Bt will eventually stabilize at a rate that is favorable for international trade.. this could take awhile.. Americans are very nervous.. panic there would make 2008 look like a minor correction.. Interest rates can't go much lower and none of the developed countries has money in the bank to stimulate their economies.. The only option left is to print more money.. probably not a good idea.. The sea is rough and there is no map.. Good luck.. I hope you are holding cash..

The mistake all these second tier countries make, in trying to levitate their markets, is to ban short selling. I know of no other means better than short selling for true price discovery. Also short sellers are the natural buyers that help markets put in a floor. Not naked short selling of course. That is and should be illegal.

[IMA_FARANG]

As I re-read the original post that started this topic....it is now just after midnight on Tuesday the 12th of January 2016.

it occurs to me that neither China nor Thailand came to a sudden end on last Friday.

Maybe that is a lesson for all the "Doom and Gloom" people out there?