Will self driving cars ever take off in Thailand?

[hobz]

28 minutes ago, mogandave said:

Industrial robots drive around factories picking up an dropping off parts driverless, and if you walk in front of them they stop. Woo-hop!


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And if they do that in Thailand there would be a somchai on a motorbike hitting him from behind. Woo-hop! Crash!

Edited May 20, 2017 by hobz

[Jingthing]

I agree there are special cultural realities on the roads in Thailand and other countries as well that are likely to greatly retard the transition towards self driving cars. Never is a long time though.

[mogandave]

Ofcourse, but you are talking far in the future when everybody has a self-driven car. Until then somchai will hit you from behind when he is driving his 125cc scooter.
 
*edit* Also my Thai driving teacher told me to not stop at stop signs in Thailand. He said it's too dangerous. And he is right. 
 
Now, again, will the cars be programmed to stop at stop signs and pedestrian crossings? If so, don't you think there will be a million accidents? This is why self-driven cars will probably never be allowed in Thailand.
However, I hope they will be allowed, and I hope that after the initial increase in accidents, the Thai drivers will always be at fault, and there will always be proof, because the self-driven cars obviously has cameras. And then over time, the driving habits of thais might improve. And then more people might start to use bicycles and stuff as well once the cars stop driving like maniacs.

It's been my experience that the people (Thai or otherwise) behind another car slow down, stop or go around.

I never had a Thai driving instructor and didn't even have to take a test for my first license here...

[hobz]

3 minutes ago, mogandave said:

 

It's been my experience that the people (Thai or otherwise) behind another car slow down, stop or go around.

I never had a Thai driving instructor and didn't even have to take a test for my first license here...

 

Ok fair enough. We have difference experience. 

I guess that you do like the Thais and don't stop for pedestrians waiting to cross? Am i correct?

[mogandave]

I agree there are special cultural realities on the roads in Thailand and other countries as well that are likely to greatly retard the transition towards self driving cars. Never is a long time though.

Do you drive here? Nothing really happens on the roads here that does not happen on the roads in the US, just just less frequent in the US.

I submit that if they can make them work in the US they will work here. Actually, given the lower cost of liability, might catch on quicker here.

[hobz]

1 minute ago, mogandave said:

 

Do you drive here? Nothing really happens on the roads here that does not happen on the roads in the US, just just less frequent in the US.

I submit that if they can make them work in the US they will work here. Actually, given the lower cost of liability, might catch on quicker here.

 

I drive here. Stop signs and pedestrian crossings are not respected here. Meaning, if you stop, you are at high-risk of getting hit from behind. 

Go to youtube and search for pedestrian crossing thailand and view the carnage.

 

Are pedestrian crossings and stop signs ignored in the US as well?

 

 

[mogandave]

I drive here. Stop signs and pedestrian crossings are not respected here. Meaning, if you stop, you are at high-risk of getting hit from behind. 
Go to youtube and search for pedestrian crossing thailand and view the carnage.
 
Are pedestrian crossings and stop signs ignored in the US as well?
 
 

I stop at stop signs and I often stop for pedestrians.

Yes, some people run stop signs and ignore pedestrians in the US. Not as high a percentage as here, but enough that a self-driving car will need to allow for it.

[mogandave]

Just googled pedestrian accidents in crosswalks USA and got plenty of hits..


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[hobz]

8 minutes ago, mogandave said:

 

I stop at stop signs and I often stop for pedestrians.

Yes, some people run stop signs and ignore pedestrians in the US. Not as high a percentage as here, but enough that a self-driving car will need to allow for it.

 

Is it safe to say that sometimes you dont stop for pedestrians because it would be unsafe to do so?

 

I used to stop for pedestrians, but after two accidents i stopped doing it.

 

First one was me on motorbike. I stop. Motorbike behind me starts breaking. Third motorbike behind second motorbike crashes in to the second motorbike. 

I was not hit. And i did nothing wrong. Yet i felt like i caused an accident.

The pedestrians waiting didnt even cross as other vehicles kept moving.

 

Second accident.

Im driving a car now.

Morning rush hour.

30-40km/h.

I stop for pedestrians.

My car is standing still for like 2 seconds when a motorbike panics to my side and falls into my car.

Pedestrians didnt cross.

 

Theres also been plenty of times were i stop and the cars behind me go insane and start honking their horns etc. Probably out of fear/anger.

 

There's also been plenty of times that i didnt stop because someone behind me is driving way too fast and way too close.

 

 

But how are the self driven cars going to deal with this? 

 

For us we know when its relatively safe to stop (except maybe me) and when we should break the law and just go.. But the self driven cars cant be programmed to break the law right?

 

If you ever go to chiang mai, go to hang dong road. Its a straight 3 lane road with like 10 unmonitored zebra crossings. Average speed when ttaffic is smooth is around 80km/h. 

Try stopping there and see what happens.. 

 

[sirineou]

7 minutes ago, mogandave said:

 

I stop at stop signs and I often stop for pedestrians.

Yes, some people run stop signs and ignore pedestrians in the US. Not as high a percentage as here, but enough that a self-driving car will need to allow for it.

 

Humans make assumptions based on past performance , so they assume that since in the past people stopped at stop sign  protected intersections . such intersection does not need to be monitored as vigorously as an unprotected intersection. this monitoring can vary from person to person or with in the same person at different times.

 Computers do not , they perform the same amount of monitoring as the algorithm requires every time. Having said this . the quality of the monitoring depends on the quality of the algorithm . the monitoring technology, and the ability of the technology to react.

IMO the technology is not there yet to be totally autonomous, but I am sure it will be in the not so farfuture.

[VocalNeal]

45 minutes ago, hobz said:

I stop for pedestrians.

A laudable idea but not in Thailand. Nobody will know what you are doing. In any driving situation you have to be cognisant about the traffic around you. 

[Jingthing]

Let's get real, people.

Suppose there is wide adoption of self driving cars in the USA and a number of other countries in the next 15 years.

Imagine what's in the minds of the Thai officials that would need to get in board to make that happen here.

Do you seriously think there would be any political will to be on the same timetable as the USA, Singapore, etc. on this transition?

I do not. 

[hobz]

37 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

A laudable idea but not in Thailand. Nobody will know what you are doing. In any driving situation you have to be cognisant about the traffic around you. 

Exactly.

A human being can ignore the law and just drive even though pedestrians waiting to cross.

But a self driven car cant be programmed to break the law. So it would always stop. And it would get hit from behind sooner or sooner.

[JaseTheBass]

Do you drive here? Nothing really happens on the roads here that does not happen on the roads in the US, just just less frequent in the US.

I submit that if they can make them work in the US they will work here. Actually, given the lower cost of liability, might catch on quicker here.

But what about countries with high driving standards like Germany or the UK?

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[Jingthing]

Another more global issue. 

Supposing the fleet model prevails and entire cities convert to mostly self driving fleets where you don't own, you don't park, you only hail and share. 

Somewhat a utopian vision of much fewer cars, parking lots being converted into less sterile uses. 

Massive sales of the new technology but massive displacement of driving work, ultimately much fewer cars sold after the boom times, and of course less oil used. 
Great developments socially and ecologically but definitely a threat to many current business interests.

[Dagnabbit]

I can PROVE that self-driven cars will have higher accident rates than normal cars in Thailand.
 
Here's why. they will be programmed to stop for stop signs and unmonitored pedestrian crossings.
 
You can go research what happens when you stop for stop-signs and pedestrian crossings in Thailand. Yes, that's right, you will get hit from behind all day every day. Thai's are not prepared to stop for pedestrians / stop signs. Even at low speeds they will crash into  you. 100% guarantee. If you don't believe it, just PROVE me wrong, put on a dash cam front/back and start driving around stopping for pedestrians and stop signs. Do it as safe as possible, i bet you can't without getting hit.
 
Ofcourse, the good news is that it will be proven that the self-driven cars will have much lower rate of CAUSING accidents.

I stop at pedestrian crossings and have never been hit doing so.

Been sworn at, but never hit!


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[Dagnabbit]

They need to be programmed to stop for a cat running across the street in a blizzard.

They need to be programmed to not run over a block the size of a pack of cigarettes in the middle of the road.

You went notice how you lose sat TV when it rains hard?

Turning right should be a pretty big challenge too.


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[hobz]

2 minutes ago, Dagnabbit said:

 

I stop at pedestrian crossings and have never been hit doing so.

Been sworn at, but never hit!


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Do you always stop or only when nobody behind you?

[mogandave]

Is it safe to say that sometimes you dont stop for pedestrians because it would be unsafe to do so?
 
I used to stop for pedestrians, but after two accidents i stopped doing it.
 
First one was me on motorbike. I stop. Motorbike behind me starts breaking. Third motorbike behind second motorbike crashes in to the second motorbike. 
I was not hit. And i did nothing wrong. Yet i felt like i caused an accident.
The pedestrians waiting didnt even cross as other vehicles kept moving.
 
Second accident.
Im driving a car now.
Morning rush hour.
30-40km/h.
I stop for pedestrians.
My car is standing still for like 2 seconds when a motorbike panics to my side and falls into my car.
Pedestrians didnt cross.
 
Theres also been plenty of times were i stop and the cars behind me go insane and start honking their horns etc. Probably out of fear/anger.
 
There's also been plenty of times that i didnt stop because someone behind me is driving way too fast and way too close.
 
 
But how are the self driven cars going to deal with this? 
 
For us we know when its relatively safe to stop (except maybe me) and when we should break the law and just go.. But the self driven cars cant be programmed to break the law right?
 
If you ever go to chiang mai, go to hang dong road. Its a straight 3 lane road with like 10 unmonitored zebra crossings. Average speed when ttaffic is smooth is around 80km/h. 
Try stopping there and see what happens.. 
 

That would not be safe to say.

I've been to CM five or six times.

[mogandave]

But what about countries with high driving standards like Germany or the UK?

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I don't understand your question. What about them? The NEVER have idiots run stops signs or motorcycles cutting traffic?

[mogandave]

Another more global issue. 
Supposing the fleet model prevails and entire cities convert to mostly self driving fleets where you don't own, you don't park, you only hail and share. 
Somewhat a utopian vision of much fewer cars, parking lots being converted into less sterile uses. 
Massive sales of the new technology but massive displacement of driving work, ultimately much fewer cars sold after the boom times, and of course less oil used. 
Great developments socially and ecologically but definitely a threat to many current business interests.

How is it so many fewer cars? If you have a facility with 1,000 employees that works 8:00-5:00. Everyone wants to get there at 7:55 and leave at 5:05.

Then the cars are not going to park, they are just going to cruise around looking for fares...except that everyone is at work.that will save energy?

It makes a little more sense if the plant works three shifts but still an issue.

The best way would be to flex-shift where you have people coming and going every five minutes 24-7.

But then what about the weekend when we want to take the kids up to the snow or to the beach?

What are we going to tow the boat with?

And then there's still the issue of people wiping their a** with the seat covers....

[hobz]

4 hours ago, mogandave said:

 

I don't understand your question. What about them? The NEVER have idiots run stops signs or motorcycles cutting traffic?

 

Ofcourse they do, but a self driven car would do well there. 

 

Let's say in germany that 5% of drivers run stop signs. That means that when the self-driven car stops at the stop sign it will belong to the 95% majority. Meaning that the vehicles behind are likely to be prepared.

 

In thailand on the other hand 95% run the stop sign. When the self driven car stops for stop sign in thailand it will confuse the drivers behind. The confusion will cause accidents.

 

I strongly believe that self driven cars in thailand would be involved in (not cause) accidents all the time. Simply due to the fact that driving according to the law is dangerous in thailand. 

 

 

[mogandave]

Ofcourse they do, but a self driven car would do well there. 
 
Let's say in germany that 5% of drivers run stop signs. That means that when the self-driven car stops at the stop sign it will belong to the 95% majority. Meaning that the vehicles behind are likely to be prepared.
 
In thailand on the other hand 95% run the stop sign. When the self driven car stops for stop sign in thailand it will confuse the drivers behind. The confusion will cause accidents.
 
I strongly believe that self driven cars in thailand would be involved in (not cause) accidents all the time. Simply due to the fact that driving according to the law is dangerous in thailand. 
 
 

So the self driving car will only be rear-ended at stop-signs 5% of the time?

I don't see that working out.

[Jingthing]

The Thai driving culture would change if self driven cars reached critical mass Like 50 percent. But how to get there? I don't see Thailand as a leader on this.

[mogandave]

Why does it have to government mandating it? If it works people will buy it.


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[Jingthing]

Why does it have to government mandating it? If it works people will buy it.


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Sure thing. It would need government buy in and promotion as a minimum. I can't imagine that here anytime soon. They've even resisted Uber.

[Dagnabbit]

Do you always stop or only when nobody behind you?

If there is nobody behind me, I dont stop. It would be pointless 'cause they could cross the moment I passed.

I will only stop if there are cars behind me. I do it every day.


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[mogandave]

Sure thing. It would need government buy in and promotion as a minimum. I can't imagine that here anytime soon. They've even resisted Uber.

The government can only slow down technology people want.

I get a new car every three years. I will buy a self driving car the second year of production, assuming it does not add more than 20% to the cost, and I think it's safe to assume millions of other people will as well.

I'd like to se the government stay out of it as much as possible.

[Jingthing]

The government can only slow down technology people want.

I get a new car every three years. I will buy a self driving car the second year of production, assuming it does not add more than 20% to the cost, and I think it's safe to assume millions of other people will as well.

I'd like to se the government stay out of it as much as possible.

Sounds like an ideologically rather than a practically based opinion. Unless the driving culture changes here a lot including policing for moving violations I predict there would be a very limited market here as people would see them as sitting duck death traps.
We're not going to agree on this.
Time will tell.

[mogandave]

Sounds like an ideologically rather than a practically based opinion. Unless the driving culture changes here a lot including policing for moving violations I predict there would be a very limited market here as people would see them as sitting duck death traps.
We're not going to agree on this.
Time will tell.

Your opinion, my opinion or both? What does the government generally do well? I want the market to pick the winners, not Trump, his appointees or whoever comes next, left or right.

In any event, I was talking about all governments, not just the Thai government.

I'm guessing Thailand will be ten years behind the US or whoever is first, but when they come it will be because people want them.

Again, I want one and I'm ready to buy, but I don't want the government telling me I have to.

Do drive regularly?