Thai private sector predicts no growth in export this year

[webfact]

Private sector predicts no growth in export this year

BANGKOK, 2 March 2016 (NNT) – In the wake of the continuous export slump, the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) projects that no export expansion will be seen this year while suggesting close monitoring of many risk factors.

The TNSC pointed out that the world economic recovery will likely continue to be delayed this year and some countries could be faced with an economic crisis, especially those relying on exports of commodity products and crude oil.

Judging from Thai exports in January which contracted by as much as 8.91 percent, the TNSC noted that the average export growth rate for the whole year could settle at zero percent. Nonetheless, a rate of 1 percent might be possible if the country managed to push export earnings to 18.5 billion US dollars per month.

According to the agency, among several factors to keep an eye on are the global economic recovery, the Chinese economic condition and the Yuan currency, international politics, oil prices and the drought crisis. The imposition of new trade regulations could also obstruct Thai exports.


-- NNT 2016-03-02

[Assurancetourix]

Why the Bank of Thailand don't devalue the baht ...? following the Yuan ...

another mystery ..

Don't want to loose face ?

If they continue , they will lost more than face

[Srikcir]

no export expansion will be seen this year

This is a huge admission by the TNSC which only in January 2016 predicted exports growing 2%, while the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre predicts expansion of about 4%.

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) predicted at the same time that export growth would be flat for 2016.

Flat or contracted export growth contradicts Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Thai Bankers Association, and the Federation of Thai Industries, projections also made in January 2016 that the economic outlook for the country in 2016 will be between 3-3.5 % due in part to a 2% export growth rate. Deputy PM for Economic Affairs Somkid too predicted the Thai economy will expand by 2.8% - 3% due in part to a 5% export growth rate.

Now GDP growth for 2016 may at best match 2015 of 2.8%. The only growth drivers remaining are tourism, government investment and currency manipulation. Unfortunately, government investment will involve even greater national debt and the return on infrastructure investment is long-term so no immediate effect on GDP growth rate. But an immediate 0.5% rate cut by BOT would provide a temporary boost to the GDP.

Paralysis of the Thai economy at a time the junta prepares for the draft charter referendum is not going to give Thais confidence that the junta knows what is best for the nation. Thais who might give the junta the benefit of trust and vote blindly for the junta's draft charter may otherwise challenge the junta's credibility by voting against the charter.

[chilli42]

This is a wildly optimistic outlook given the current and likely global economic outlook for the balance of 2016. I wonder was this forecast done by an economist or by a Mor Du?

[jayboy]

Disappointing because in current dreadful state of economy exports are critical to recovery.On the other hand and looking on the bright side there is the prospect of a free trade agreement (FTA) being ratified between Thailand and the EU - the largest trading zone globally.That will be a great help.

Oh wait...

http://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/zero-chance-of-thailand-fta-under-junta-commission-official-says/

[phoenixdoglover]

no export expansion will be seen this year

This is a huge admission by the TNSC which only in January 2016 predicted exports growing 2%, while the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre predicts expansion of about 4%.

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) predicted at the same time that export growth would be flat for 2016.

Flat or contracted export growth contradicts Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Thai Bankers Association, and the Federation of Thai Industries, projections also made in January 2016 that the economic outlook for the country in 2016 will be between 3-3.5 % due in part to a 2% export growth rate. Deputy PM for Economic Affairs Somkid too predicted the Thai economy will expand by 2.8% - 3% due in part to a 5% export growth rate.

Now GDP growth for 2016 may at best match 2015 of 2.8%. The only growth drivers remaining are tourism, government investment and currency manipulation. Unfortunately, government investment will involve even greater national debt and the return on infrastructure investment is long-term so no immediate effect on GDP growth rate. But an immediate 0.5% rate cut by BOT would provide a temporary boost to the GDP.

Paralysis of the Thai economy at a time the junta prepares for the draft charter referendum is not going to give Thais confidence that the junta knows what is best for the nation. Thais who might give the junta the benefit of trust and vote blindly for the junta's draft charter may otherwise challenge the junta's credibility by voting against the charter.

Agree this is a huge admission by TNSC. Not to mention some straightforward reporting by NNT for a change.

I think there are few arrows in the Junta's quiver right now. Their major investment projects for high speed rail are stymied by the downturn in China, and the Junta cannot put it on the back burner, nor has not conceived of something of equal magnitude. Instead, there are various much smaller grant, loan and subsidy schemes at play.

There seems to be a lack of imagination among the self-appointed leadership, and most likely a ministerial bureaucracy that is too intimidated to show initiative.

One other factor is the long term promotion of a vision for Thailand that includes a very high proportion of the population staying on the farm. It's impossible to discuss this fully online, but the current regime is wedded to this bucolic vision, and the previous regime was more modern in outlook.

Overall, this is an economy going nowhere.

It could be worse.