UK Pound Dipping.

[HauptmannUK]

Immigration to the UK will continue irrespective of whether we stay or leave. Big business in the UK wants low cost labour and UK governments have historically given in to the wishes of business. Much more so than most other EU governments.

I am currently employed in the UK by a high-tech multinational. We are headquartered in the US but have operations around the globe (inc. UK, France, Germany, China etc). I was at a meeting last week during which we have decided to suspend further investment in the UK. I imagine many other companies are making similar decisions. Its not scaremongering. There is no strategy or plan for what happens if we vote to leave. It might turn out well or it might go dreadfully wrong.

[nontabury]

Immigration to the UK will continue irrespective of whether we stay or leave. Big business in the UK wants low cost labour and UK governments have historically given in to the wishes of business. Much more so than most other EU governments.I am currently employed in the UK by a high-tech multinational. We are headquartered in the US but have operations around the globe (inc. UK, France, Germany, China etc). I was at a meeting last week during which we have decided to suspend further investment in the UK. I imagine many other companies are making similar decisions. Its not scaremongering. There is no strategy or plan for what happens if we vote to leave. It might turn out well or it might go dreadfully wrong.

Of course there will be further immigration in the event of a Biexit, the difference will be that the UK will decide who can enter. This will be decided on

whether that prospected applicant will be bringing into the UK, skills and Labour that the UK NEEDs. It will enable the UK to take control of it's own boarders and if need be keep out undesirables.

Regarding your comments re future investments,a number of companies have already indicated that a Brexit will make absolutely no difference to future investment strategy. Just think about it,at the moment the UK trading capacity is in the hands of the Brussels bureaucrats, representing a trading alliance of 550 million. Outside the EU are nearly 7 billion, with whom we will be able to directly negotiate with,in order to make trading agreements to the betterment of the British people.

[sandyf]

* Bank of England FPC - UK financial stability outlook has worsened since November 2015

Source: FXWire CentralBank

29. March 2016 17:04:44

* BOE - EU referendum is most significant near-term domestic risk to financial stability

Source: FXWire CentralBank

29. March 2016 17:05:03

* BOE - heightened and prolonged brexit uncertainty could further weaken Sterling, affect many UK borrowers

Source: FXWire CentralBank

29. March 2016 17:05:14

And who are you quoting? None other than the governments and big international concerns,who we all know intend to,and will try to intimidate the electorate as they did in 1975, thankfully they failed in the 90's when again they talked of economic ruin,if we did not join the Euro.

Sorry! But again I repeat, try and look how the EU intends to proceed in the coming years,if that does't worry you, then by all means vote to remain in. However if you do and you are on the winning side,do not complain when the chickens come home to roost. As then the value of the £ will be the least of your worries if you are in the UK.

I am not quoting anything, you obviously do not recognise forex datafeeds.

BTW BOE = Bank of England.

[BritManToo]

It's still around 50!

[billd766]

It's still around 50!

This is the forex rate from Kasikorn bank for 2016 up to last Friday.

It started OK but dropped over the last 3 months.

Forex 2016 v02.xls

[nontabury]

It's still around 50!

This is the forex rate from Kasikorn bank for 2016 up to last Friday.

It started OK but dropped over the last 3 months.

Forex 2016 v02.xls

When I first came toThailand 27yrs ago the rate was approximately 34-36 to the £, in the following yrs I've seen the rate fluctuate up and down many times,going as high as 96 for a day or two, before settling at 76 for a couple of years. Will this trend ever change,of course not, the effect of the upcoming referendum will of course make for further uncertainty,but what you've got to look at is the long term effect of the U.K. remaining or exiting the EU. Having said that, I expect some pensioners on a tight pension will be naturally concerned, and will be pressurized (scared) into thinking it will be safer to remain in the EU,without taking into account what future direction the Brussel eurocrats intend to take the EU.

On just the economic front, let's not forget how the politicians purposely deceived the electorate in 1975' and again tried ( thankfully unsuccessfully, as later events showed) when they tried to push the UK into the EURO.

Edited April 4, 2016 by nontabury

[chiang mai]

It's still around 50!

This is the forex rate from Kasikorn bank for 2016 up to last Friday.

It started OK but dropped over the last 3 months.

Forex 2016 v02.xls

Bill, you can save yourself some keyboard time by using Oanda for the graph:

https://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

The 180 day rolling average shows a distinct downward trend, the one year give a far better picture with what appears to be a return to normal at present.

Things don't look good for GBP holders wanting THB, especially if Brexit goes thru.

Edited April 4, 2016 by chiang mai

[i claudius]

I think the pound will dip if we Brexit , but once the dust settles ,things will start to return to normal and if we thrive outside i believe the pound will gain as the European union starts to unravel , which i do believe will happen as the walls go up and others decide enough is enough .

[chiang mai]

I think the pound will dip if we Brexit , but once the dust settles ,things will start to return to normal and if we thrive outside i believe the pound will gain as the European union starts to unravel , which i do believe will happen as the walls go up and others decide enough is enough .

Possibly, except that process could easily take ten years.

[Lampang2]

If Brexit goes expect around Thb 45 to the GBP

Or 65 maybe.

[i claudius]

I think the pound will dip if we Brexit , but once the dust settles ,things will start to return to normal and if we thrive outside i believe the pound will gain as the European union starts to unravel , which i do believe will happen as the walls go up and others decide enough is enough .

Possibly, except that process could easily take ten years.

or 10 weeks

[chiang mai]

It's already been widely discussed in the broadsheets that any Brexit negotiations would take years, anyone looking for a quick fix and/or 65 baht per Pound in ten weeks needs therapy. Logically there's no reason I can think of why the Pound should suddenly surge and become super strong just because of Brexit, in fact the opposite is what is expected, if somebody else knows of a reason why then please tell us (and the rest of the UK) - BTW reasons such as, we have control of our destiny will need some padding and further explanation.

[i claudius]

I did not say 65 to the pound I just said back to normal as we have now

When have I ever stated that amount

Edited April 4, 2016 by i claudius

[nontabury]

It's already been widely discussed in the broadsheets that any Brexit negotiations would take years, anyone looking for a quick fix and/or 65 baht per Pound in ten weeks needs therapy. Logically there's no reason I can think of why the Pound should suddenly surge and become super strong just because of Brexit, in fact the opposite is what is expected, if somebody else knows of a reason why then please tell us (and the rest of the UK) - BTW reasons such as, we have control of our destiny will need some padding and further explanation.

If the UK does vote Britexit, that will make the decision, the negotiations will move along fairly quickly, if only because the European industries will want to secure their trading position with the U.K. as soon as possibly. At the moment for example we Import twice as much as we Export to Germany.The same will go for the Brussel bureaucrats, as they would not want to jeopardize the trading advantage the EU presently has with the U.K. In 2014 the UK's DEFICIT with the EU provided about 50% of the entire EUROzones balance of payments Surplus, further more the UK was the Eurozones largest source of nett export revenue.

In addition there would be the other financial advantages to exiting this corrupt organisation, mainly we would no longer have to pay the EU £55 million gross per day( 2014 data) estimated now to be somewhat larger. As I've said previously, if you are happy, continuing to pay this membership fee,then do vote Yes.

[billd766]

It's still around 50!

This is the forex rate from Kasikorn bank for 2016 up to last Friday.

It started OK but dropped over the last 3 months.

Forex 2016 v02.xls

Bill, you can save yourself some keyboard time by using Oanda for the graph:

https://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

The 180 day rolling average shows a distinct downward trend, the one year give a far better picture with what appears to be a return to normal at present.

Things don't look good for GBP holders wanting THB, especially if Brexit goes thru.

The problem with Oanda is that it usually involves reasonably large amounts but the KBank forex rate is the rate that I get at that time and day. I know what my pensions are in GBP and I know what I receive in thb from my online statement. The rate that I get is very close to what it should be perhaps within 0.025%.

I have just done a comparison now and the rates for £1 GBP are

KBank 49.47563

Oanda 50.019

A 0.1% difference. Not much for £1 but the more you exchange the bigger the gap.

None of the Thai banks on this list are close to Oanda.

https://daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

Bank Country Updated by bank Update

no.

From To Rate Quantity

* rate

Inverse

of rate

Chart Government Savings Bank Thailand 2016-04-04 07:03 (-106 min ago) 2 GBP THB 49.673 49.673 0.020132 Chart UOB Thailand 2016-04-03 17:00 1 GBP THB 49.621 49.621 0.020153 Chart Siam Commercial Bank Thailand 2016-04-04 03:43 (94 min ago) GBP THB 49.61 49.61 0.020157 Chart CIMB Thai Thailand 2016-04-04 04:59 (18 min ago) 2 GBP THB 49.6009 49.601 0.020161 Chart TMB Thailand 2016-04-04 03:48 (89 min ago) 3 GBP THB 49.59125 49.591 0.020165 Chart Bangkok Bank Thailand 2016-04-04 01:30 1 GBP THB 49.5825 49.582 0.020168 Chart Krung Thai Bank Thailand 2016-04-04 03:26 (111 min ago) GBP THB 49.57875 49.579 0.02017 Chart Kasikorn Bank Thailand 2016-04-04 00:54 1 GBP THB 49.57563 49.576 0.020171 Chart Bank of Ayudhya Thailand 2016-04-04 03:00 (137 min ago) 2 GBP THB 49.53469 49.535 0.020188 Chart

[sandyf]

It's already been widely discussed in the broadsheets that any Brexit negotiations would take years, anyone looking for a quick fix and/or 65 baht per Pound in ten weeks needs therapy. Logically there's no reason I can think of why the Pound should suddenly surge and become super strong just because of Brexit, in fact the opposite is what is expected, if somebody else knows of a reason why then please tell us (and the rest of the UK) - BTW reasons such as, we have control of our destiny will need some padding and further explanation.

Exactly. I has been stated on several occasions that it would be at least 2 years from the vote before any separation could take place. During that time all the hidden problems will come to light and the level of uncertainty can only rise.

As for the dust settling, I think many of us will have departed this earth before that happens. We can only hope that common sense prevails and there is no dust storm.

I will be there at the polling station on June 23rd. Just coincidence, I had already planned to go before it was announced.

[New beginnings]

Many of the comments so far appear to be forecasting a drop in the UK£ should a Brexit vote win. Personally, as a UK expat here in Thailand, notwithstanding a possible collapse of the pound I pray for a Brexit. This is despite the fact my main income is from UK pensions.

Whilst I accept the pound may come under significant pressure in the event of Brexit I am also confident of the U.K.'s ability to go it alone. I cite the following:-

A) Britain is not a third world country. It is actually the 5th largest economy in the World

The euro is a basket case which was introduced for political rather than economic purposes. Think how much worse the UK would have been if we had signed up to the euro. Make no mistake the euro will implode. It is not a question of "if" but "when"

C). Southern European countries are facing unemployment levels of up to 50% particularly affecting the young. Many people state that big businesses will not invest in the UK following a Brexit. The reverse is true particularly if we should see a collapse in the pound which would create further opportunities for the UK employment.

D) The trade deficit is far greater in favour of Europe than the UK. Does anyone seriously think they are going to impose trade tariffs against the UK which would hurt them more. The U.K. would then be able to negotiate favourable terms with the rest of the world for the UK without being tied up in red tape.

E) The UK would have true control of its borders. Don't forget the UK is the only country in Europe with a natural border, it's called the Engish Channel. Europe doesn't appear to know who are crossing there borders and Herr Merkel is planning, with accepting Turkey within the Euro, extending this border direct to the Middle East.

I accept that I may, probably will, be adversely affected by a vote to leave the EU but have already registered to have my vote and I for one will be definitely voting "LEAVE"

Edited April 4, 2016 by New beginnings

[chiang mai]

I did not say 65 to the pound I just said back to normal as we have now

When have I ever stated that amount

Not you IC, the subsequent poster did, my reply was in response to two posts, nifty eh!

[chiang mai]

It's still around 50!

This is the forex rate from Kasikorn bank for 2016 up to last Friday.

It started OK but dropped over the last 3 months.

Forex 2016 v02.xls

Bill, you can save yourself some keyboard time by using Oanda for the graph:

https://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

The 180 day rolling average shows a distinct downward trend, the one year give a far better picture with what appears to be a return to normal at present.

Things don't look good for GBP holders wanting THB, especially if Brexit goes thru.

The problem with Oanda is that it usually involves reasonably large amounts but the KBank forex rate is the rate that I get at that time and day. I know what my pensions are in GBP and I know what I receive in thb from my online statement. The rate that I get is very close to what it should be perhaps within 0.025%.

I have just done a comparison now and the rates for £1 GBP are

KBank 49.47563

Oanda 50.019

A 0.1% difference. Not much for £1 but the more you exchange the bigger the gap.

None of the Thai banks on this list are close to Oanda.

https://daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

Bank Country Updated by bank Update

no.

From To Rate Quantity

* rate

Inverse

of rate

Chart Government Savings Bank Thailand 2016-04-04 07:03 (-106 min ago) 2 GBP THB 49.673 49.673 0.020132 Chart UOB Thailand 2016-04-03 17:00 1 GBP THB 49.621 49.621 0.020153 Chart Siam Commercial Bank Thailand 2016-04-04 03:43 (94 min ago) GBP THB 49.61 49.61 0.020157 Chart CIMB Thai Thailand 2016-04-04 04:59 (18 min ago) 2 GBP THB 49.6009 49.601 0.020161 Chart TMB Thailand 2016-04-04 03:48 (89 min ago) 3 GBP THB 49.59125 49.591 0.020165 Chart Bangkok Bank Thailand 2016-04-04 01:30 1 GBP THB 49.5825 49.582 0.020168 Chart Krung Thai Bank Thailand 2016-04-04 03:26 (111 min ago) GBP THB 49.57875 49.579 0.02017 Chart Kasikorn Bank Thailand 2016-04-04 00:54 1 GBP THB 49.57563 49.576 0.020171 Chart Bank of Ayudhya Thailand 2016-04-04 03:00 (137 min ago) 2 GBP THB 49.53469 49.535 0.020188 Chart

I think Bill what you're seeing is a perhaps a couple of things:

The first is that I had Oanda set to the midpoint whereas the Thai banks only have the bid/off price hence there would be a slight variation. The second thing is that Oanda use the offshore rate whilst Thai banks use the onshore rate, sometimes the difference is small, some times it can be greater, the relationship between the on and off shore rates however remains pretty constant.

[chiang mai]

It's already been widely discussed in the broadsheets that any Brexit negotiations would take years, anyone looking for a quick fix and/or 65 baht per Pound in ten weeks needs therapy. Logically there's no reason I can think of why the Pound should suddenly surge and become super strong just because of Brexit, in fact the opposite is what is expected, if somebody else knows of a reason why then please tell us (and the rest of the UK) - BTW reasons such as, we have control of our destiny will need some padding and further explanation.

If the UK does vote Britexit, that will make the decision, the negotiations will move along fairly quickly, if only because the European industries will want to secure their trading position with the U.K. as soon as possibly. At the moment for example we Import twice as much as we Export to Germany.The same will go for the Brussel bureaucrats, as they would not want to jeopardize the trading advantage the EU presently has with the U.K. In 2014 the UK's DEFICIT with the EU provided about 50% of the entire EUROzones balance of payments Surplus, further more the UK was the Eurozones largest source of nett export revenue.

In addition there would be the other financial advantages to exiting this corrupt organisation, mainly we would no longer have to pay the EU £55 million gross per day( 2014 data) estimated now to be somewhat larger. As I've said previously, if you are happy, continuing to pay this membership fee,then do vote Yes.

To be clear, I am not and have not expressed a personal view as to whether Brexit is good or not nor if I support it or not, my posts are instead solely about the impact of Brexit on the value of the Pound.

[sandyf]

UK: Latest UK Brexit polls...

UK: Latest UK Brexit pollsPollster              Remain  Leave  undecided    sample--------------------------------------------------------Opinium       Apr-02      39     43         18      1966Ipsos MORI    Mar-29      49     41         10ICM           Mar-24      45     43         12      1970Survation     Mar-24      46     35         19      1006ComRes        Mar-23      48     41         11      1002ICM           Mar-22      41     43         16      2000ICM           Mar-17      43     41         16      2031ORB           Mar-14      47     49                  823ICM           Mar-06      40     41         19      2051YouGov        Mar-04      40     37         18         xYouGov        Mar-02      40     35         19         xICM           Feb-29      41     41         18      2003ORB           Feb-25      48     52                 2014

Source: Market News International (MNI) – A Deutsche Börse company

4. April 2016 13:16:32

[sandyf]

The euro is a basket case which was introduced for political rather than economic purposes. Think how much worse the UK would have been if we had signed up to the euro. Make no mistake the euro will implode. It is not a question of "if" but "when"

That is simply not true.

The single currency was the dream of the Central European population for decades. I was stationed in Germany for two and a half years in the early seventies and had to drive around with a variety of currencies in the glove compartment in case I needed to use the toilet.

Easy to pontificate when never been faced with the reality.

At the beginning of December the EUR/GBP was at 0.70, today it is 0.80, that is up nearly 15 percent in 4 months.

[New beginnings]

The euro is a basket case which was introduced for political rather than economic purposes. Think how much worse the UK would have been if we had signed up to the euro. Make no mistake the euro will implode. It is not a question of "if" but "when"

That is simply not true.

The single currency was the dream of the Central European population for decades. I was stationed in Germany for two and a half years in the early seventies and had to drive around with a variety of currencies in the glove compartment in case I needed to use the toilet.

Easy to pontificate when never been faced with the reality.

At the beginning of December the EUR/GBP was at 0.70, today it is 0.80, that is up nearly 15 percent in 4 months.

[New beginnings]

Sandy f - Just because you state "it is not true" does not make it "not true" Apart from Germany who else has really benefited from the euro. Germany wanted it to help there exports hence the reason they are able to dictate to the rest of Europe. If Germany still had the Deutschmark do you seriously think they would be able to exert the pressure on other eu countries as they do now?

Edited April 4, 2016 by New beginnings

[chiang mai]

I believe that was GBP weakening rather than EUR strengthening.

[sandyf]

Sandy f - Just because you state "it is not true" does not make it "not true" Apart from Germany who else has really benefited from the euro. Germany wanted it to help there exports hence the reason they are able to dictate to the rest of Europe. If Germany still had the Deutschmark do you seriously think they would be able to exert the pressure on other eu countries as they do now?

You are perfectly free to believe what you want. The single currency was an absolute necessity for cross border traffic and the people of Europe struggled for over 30 years to get that single currency introduced.

Very little to do with the Germans, back in those days they still had a black cloud over their heads from the war. Even in the 70's we were perceived by the Germans as occupational forces, I used to get my petrol with coupons issued to the military.

[sandyf]

I believe that was GBP weakening rather than EUR strengthening.

It is the same thing, the EUR has strengthened against the pound. The EUR has also strengthened against the dollar, but then you can say the dollar has weakened, and go round in circles.

[johnatong]

I believe that was GBP weakening rather than EUR strengthening.

It is the same thing, the EUR has strengthened against the pound. The EUR has also strengthened against the dollar, but then you can say the dollar has weakened, and go round in circles.

These issues are determined by anonymous 'manipulators' hiding in the currency markets !

As of now the £ is up against the $ and the Euro !

[chiang mai]

I believe that was GBP weakening rather than EUR strengthening.

It is the same thing, the EUR has strengthened against the pound. The EUR has also strengthened against the dollar, but then you can say the dollar has weakened, and go round in circles.

This is not a bad explanation:

"Reading a foreign exchange quote is simple if you remember two things:

1. The first currency listed is the base currency

2. The value of the base currency is always 1

As the centerpiece of the forex market, the US dollar is usually considered the base currency for quotes. When the base currency is USD, think of the quote as telling you what a US dollar is worth in that other currency.

When USD is the base currency and the quote goes up, that means USD has strengthened in value and the other currency has weakened. Rising quotes mean a US dollar can now buy more of the other currency than before.

Majors not based on the US dollar

The three exceptions to this rule are the British pound (GBP), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the Euro (EUR). For these pairs, where USD is not the base currency, a rising quote means the US dollar is weakening and buys less of the other currency than before.

In other words, if a currency quote goes higher, the base currency is getting stronger. A lower quote means the base currency is weakening.

Cross currencies

Currency pairs that don't involve USD at all are called cross currencies, but the premise is the same"

.http://www.forex.com/understanding_forex_quotes.html

If in doubt, compare the value of the subject currency against the other major currencies such as USD, GBP. EUR, YEN to see if the movement and direction is the same.

[chiang mai]

A depressing read in the UK broadsheets this morning:

"Respected Markit/CIPS survey suggests "manufacturing" sector recorded one of its weakest performances for three years as exports market toughens - The UK report showed manufacturing employment fell for the third month running as new export business continued to decline. The headline index on the PMI report edged up to 51.0 in March from February’s 34-month low of 50.8. That was above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction but left the average reading for the first quarter of 2016 at just 51.6, equalling the lowest recorded since the PMI first moved back above the neutral 50.0 mark in early 2013".

"The pound has weakened in recent months amid worries over the outcome of the UK’s EU referendum in June. On Friday, the pound weakened further, hurt by the gloomy manufacturing survey and as tight opinion polls fanned Brexit worries. The pound was down more than 1% against both the dollar and the euro. A weaker currency may help exporters, by making their goods cheaper overseas. However, Dobson warned the pound’s move was not all good news. “Although the drop in sterling may add some bounce to export performance in coming months, the exchange rate is likely to cause as many issues on the cost side through higher import prices as it aids for demand,” he said. That could add to pressure on manufacturers’ margins, he added. The PMI report showed average factory gate prices were cut last month as companies responded to increased competition and passed on lower raw material costs".

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/01/uk-manufacturers-cut-jobs-and-prices-amid-economic-slowdown

And then:

"Britain’s trading position with the rest of the world has deteriorated sharply with the current account deficit swelling to its widest on record, fanning fears about the sustainability of the economic recovery. News of the ballooning current account shortfall overshadowed figures showing economic growth was stronger than first thought in the fourth quarter. GDP rose 0.6% compared with an earlier estimate of 0.5% and 0.4% growth the previous quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Experts warned that even that brighter headline figure masked an unbalanced economy with consumer spending being relied on while industry contracted and business investment dropped sharply. At the same time household incomes were shown to have fallen in real terms, casting doubt over how much longer consumers could keep up their pace of spending".

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/mar/31/uk-economy-growth-record-trade-deficit