US military units to stay for South China Sea patrols

[boomerangutang]

This won't happen, but would be interesting: ISIS claim the western half of Hainan island, and N.Korea claim the eastern half. Then there would be a 3-way war. Who would win?

[LawrenceChee]

Republicans holding a signatory back ??? Does the party now rule the country ?

Just admit the fact that they could have signed it if they wanted to but because some in the congress feel this entitlement that they are the USA they don't have to sign it to abide in it

Sounds like a lot of looney visa runners in Thailand ....they feel just because they are in Asia and holding certain western passports , the rules does not apply to them and they can overstay pay a fine , smile and leave without whining .

[Publicus]

It's getting time in Beijing.

CCP Dictators have made clear they will withdraw from the UNILOS treaty if the ruling of the Arbitral Court in The Hague goes against the CCP in the SCS, as almost everyone expects it will.

The PLA-controlled online and print rag Global Times said as much. Global Times is not the ultimate voice of the CCP -- People's Daily -- but it almost always speaks with the authority of the state looking over its shoulder.

Global Times has put it this way as to why CCP would quit the treaty due to an ruling adverse to it....

"...it [CCP] would be protected against similar future claims brought by Vietnam, Indonesia or Malaysia with regard to the South China Sea, or by Japan with regard to the East China Sea. It [CCP] it would have good reasons to do so if its territorial sovereignty was undermined by a decision of an arbitral tribunal established under the Convention."

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/971707.shtml

A major flaw and fault of CCP is that they have tried to frame the SCS issues as a matter of Chinese sovereignty, which it is not. The Tribunal in The Hague is examining features in the SCS, ranging from a rock to a reef, an islet, island, archipelago etc. The specific maritime features that the ILOS recognises as having a coastal zone or not, a territorial zone or not, an EEZ or not.

A rock for instance has a 50-meter safety zone only. An artificial island built on a reef submerged at high tide gets a 3-mile safety zone, if that, depending on who else may claim the reef as within its own zone under the ILOS.

UN does not rule on matters of state sovereignty. All the governments of UN member states prohibit it in a unanimous agreement from the start of the UN in 1946 to the present. It's the proverbial snowball's chance in hell. Rather, UNILOS is intended to help clarify under a rule-based system consistently applied over time the categorising of maritime features and thereby assign a zone(s) or not assign one under a mutually agreed international law.

This is not what CCP has in mind or in store and everyone in the region (and elsewhere) know it, which is why the US Navy is on the scene and will remain indefinitely or as necessitated by the CCP Dictators in Beijing.

The GT / PD is a published mouthpiece that the mainstream Chinese don't really read ...similar to Fox ? And if they read it ...isn't that similar to USA ? It's a freedom of choice ?

Most businessman / youths don't read these news publication ; my daily read is WSJ / ST / BP / Times / SMCP

Like I mention before, VPN is used widely in China , maybe comrade P have not figured out how easy it is to download that in your PC / smartphone and you can access everything just like a regular Chinese.

Having the US navy at scene is not a deterrent but a ridiculous show of force for something that both countries agree will never be a military campaign

However the USA foreign affairs and solutions is limited to often interfering show of force ...I can imagine if Trump the carrot head wins how many times the moron will threaten the use of force and not do it because he is gutless or just plain stupid

China is committed to negotiations and trade deals for a middle path, the USA is committed to driving arm sales in a region which does not need one and escalating tension for nothing , however the arms factories do contribute a lot of money to the campaigns and must be kept happy right ?

I would say ratify the UNILOS first ....why is this difficult for congress or your senators to ratify it ? How difficult or how busy are these guys ? Why won't you sign it ? Because you can ? From a matter of principle like the Brits have , why not sign and ratify it ?

I would say ratify the UNILOS first ....why is this difficult for congress or your senators to ratify it ?

Since adoption by 167 nations of the UNCLOS in 1982, a handful of various Republican rightwingnoid US senators have had a "hold" (stop) on consideration of the treaty which was signed by Potus. So US Government in fact observes the ILOS treaty.

If CCP Dictators in Beijing withdraw from the UNCILOS they will forfeit their claims to someday being a superpower.

CCP is currently trying to become a regional power. This is the necessary prerequisite to becoming a global power, and then to eventually -- perhaps -- become a superpower. Perhaps.

CCP is however surrounded by democratic states that are wealthy, high tech, have strong military forces supported by the USA and which oppose CCP's aggressions in the East Sea against Japan and in the SCS against Asean. These advanced countries further hold CCP in check in respect of the country of Taiwan which is in fact a Republic governed by democracy.

Here's the scoop from Tara Davenport who is a non-resident research fellow at the Centre for International Law of the National University of Singapore, writing of the strong possibility CCP will quit the UNCILOS.....

China’s withdrawal from UNCLOS would undermine the already fragile belief in China’s commitment to a “peaceful rise” as a global superpower. UNCLOS establishes certain baseline expectations of how States should behave in the oceans and has hitherto provided a language through which the Claimants, even China, have communicated their positions and claims. As tensions in the South China Sea escalate on a daily basis, denouncing UNCLOS could irretrievably damage the trust and confidence of States in the region. This would consequently derail any of China’s efforts to pursue its preferred course of action, namely a negotiated solution of the South China Sea disputes.

China’s potential non-compliance with the final award will inevitably harm its standing as a lawabiding member of the international community. To compound that with a knee-jerk denunciation of a long-standing and widely accepted legal regime could have far-reaching implications that are at odds with China’s long-term national interests. The non-ratification of UNCLOS by the United States is tolerated because the U.S. is perceived as faithfully complying with the UNCLOS regime. China’s denunciation after a tribunal has found its actions in the South China Sea contrary to UNCLOS will not be interpreted in the same light. There are many courses of action China can take after the Award is issued. Denouncing UNCLOS should not be one of them.

http://cil.nus.edu.sg/wp/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Tara-Davenport-24Mar2016-Why-China-Shouldnt-Denounce-UNCLOS.pdf

It is long past time the Central Kingdom entered the modern world.

...as I was saying....

This won't happen, but would be interesting: ISIS claim the western half of Hainan island, and N.Korea claim the eastern half. Then there would be a 3-way war. Who would win?

Whether or not CCP pull out of the UNCILOS the points presented in the quote in my post are valid.

CCP behaviors in the SCS against Asean, Japan, Australia and involving India and Taiwan are unilateral aggression that almost everyone agrees the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague will declare to be unlawful, illegal, out of bounds. It needs to cease quickly and immediately.

CCP Dictators in Beijing and the Chinese people are engaged in an international belligerence and bellicosity against their neighbors in the region that is dangerous, menacing and creates risks to peace and good order that also and unnecessarily present profound implications globally.

It is a Central Kingdom nationalism and an ethnic supremacy that is predicated in a revanchism and irredentism the likes of which the world has not seen since Europe in the 1930s. We are also seeing another version of the old-fashioned and thoroughly discredited revanchism and irredentism by Putin and Russia against Ukraine.

Edited June 30, 2016 by Publicus

[boomerangutang]

Let's see if China's Communist party will allow unhampered votes among residents of the following provinces (Brexit style) to allow residents to choose whether to be part of China, or leave. Of course, not possible, unless Beijing's political vice grip implodes. Chinexit won't happen, but it's food for thought....

Hainan //// Tibet //// Uyghur //// Taiwan

India's Himalayan border regions and the terra-formed islands in the SCS are odd, in that they don't have residents, unless you count the Han Chinese recently shipped into the man-made islands off the Fil coast.

BTW, the PL Army isn't the national army of China. Instead, it's the military arm of the Communist Party. I think China is the only country in the world which, instead of having a national military, instead has a military force which is beholden to a political party. All officers must be card-carrying members of China's Communist Party. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Publicus]

Indeed Chinese Communist Party Dictators in Beijing run the only major country that subjugates the state to the control of the ruling party. In the instance of the People's Republic of China, it is the single-party state of the CCP.

Xi Jinping is chairman of the Chinese Communist Party while (the English fluent) PM Li Kejiang is vice chairman.

Xi is also chairman of the Party's Central Military Commission which is established by the Party, owned by the Party, operated by the Party (Li is not a member). PLA study Marx, Engels, Mao and the like (also Lenin and Stalin but not as major CCP figures). The brassy Xi whose father was a PLA general just this year gave himself the new title of commander-in-chief. In 2010 a Kim Jong Un look-alike grandson of Mao Zeedong became the youngest general in the history of the PLA.

Although CCP teaches the people they defeated the Japanese in WW2, PLA have very little Chinese military history to study that is successful. (Chinese generals for 1000 years never learned much from Sun Tzu as they kept being defeated by the Tartars or the Mongols or the British or the Japanese).

It seems Chinese armies lose whether or not they ever fire a shot.

The mild exception might be the Ever Victorious Army (1860-1864), which was a brief expedition founded, trained and commanded by European and US Army officers whose commander U.S. Army Colonel Frederick Townsend Ward was killed in action (1862). He was succeeded by the colourful British Army Major Charles "Chinese" Gordon. "Chinese" Gordon won the endorsement of the Empress Dowager Xi Ci who appointed Gordon major-general of her forces*. However, CCP have in a bit of a revision given all the credit to the two foreign officers' aide-de-camp, Captain Li Hongzhang.

Unlike the USA and UK among other major military powers of history and the present, CCP have no government military academies as all officers are trained at the Party military school. CCP in fact quickly terminated an exchange program with the US Naval Academy when USNA cadets assigned to what USNA had thought were Naval studies in China said they were learning maritime studies with PLA Navy officer candidates who were in fact in the PLArmy. (Turns out PLA Navy and PLA Air Force officer cadets get their training and education from the Army, then after graduation move to active duty with the Navy or the AF.)

The single party state.

*Gordon later became British army commander in Sudan then Governor.

Edited July 1, 2016 by Publicus

[Publicus]

PCA in The Hague said today for the first time that it will release its ruling on the SCS case brought by the Philippines on July 12th. (Unconfirmed reports had circulated it would be July 7th.)

The central issues the Arbitral Court will address, as have been asserted by the Philippines, are.....

*UNCLOS always prevails over historical claims

*Artificial islands constructed on reefs or rocks by CCP (Spratly islands of the Phils) do not generate a 12 nm zone nor do they generate a 200 nm EEZ

*CCP is violating ILOS by blockading Phils fishermen from the Spratlys and by using dangerous means and methods to do so, and by damaging natural features such as coral rocks that support sealife

*In sum, the Philippines is only seeking a ruling on which maritime zones states can claim under the ILOS, and which rights and jurisdiction states have to explore and exploit the natural resources in and under the waters in the South China Sea.

The Tribunal has no role or say in matters of state sovereignty.

Regardless, everyone expects CCP Dictators in Beijing to react to the Tribunal by launching an already prepared and ready to go mighty barrage of legal and political warfare and propaganda against the ruling, to include a number of countries that support CCP such as Zimbabwe and Kenya.

If CCP establishes an Air Defense Identification Zone over the SCS or any part of it, the US will fly through it without seeking or recognising any Beijing demands for its sovereign permission. US will sail USN ships through any CCP established Sea Defense Identification Zone at natural or artificial islands the CCP occupies.

As stated by Lyle J. Morris at the Pentagon's number one research and advisory contractor the Rand Corporation....

If China choses to disregard the ruling as is widely expected, it will be seen by many states as a rising power with little respect for international norms and principles of law. Such disregard will be a matter of serious concern for the many states that want the oceans to be governed by the law under the LOSC, rather than by brute force. Were China to significantly accelerate its foothold in the region by dredging; building facilities, runways and ports, and deploying military assets to disputed features in response to the ruling, the onus would fall on the United States and regional actors to respond diplomatically, economically and militarily.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-day-after-the-fallout-the-philippines-arbitration-case-16795?page=show

CCP China will host a G-20 meeting in Beijing in September so the international expectation is that neither the CCP nor the US will take any live action-reaction SCS scenario before then, if at all. Governments of the region as well as the US hope the next two months can provide a breathing room after the Tribunal's ruling on July 12th.

[LawrenceChee]

I think what will frustrate USA in this is while it keep trying to align itself to its allies here in Asia, the options of being nothing more than a busybody will stick.

It's obvious that USA opposes much of what China / Russia does, in fact at times it seems instead of co-operation it will oppose for the sake of opposing because it really has no other options other than to get involved in everything because it has to. The lack of long term foresight often happens while it believes often that only military action will work.

As stated by Comrade P ...

Military Action - Won't happen ; Chinese won't fire the first shot and the USA can bring all its fleet there and can't fire one single shot at the civilian actions. Nullified.

It's allies wont start anything ...does Japan & South Korea want a war against a mad Kim...sure go military on China and China may well turn Mad Kim on the South Korea and Japan.......refugees from North Korea through border routes ....be a riot trying to control him and perhaps then the East Asia area will finally appreciate the thankless job of keeping Mad Kim safely buttoned up at a controlled level. Will ASEAN want to deal with all the refugees ? I hope you enjoy kimchi....

Diplomacy - China has been talking to all ASEAN nations and negotiating trade deals that will make it work while Uncle Sam is frantically waving everywhere trying to stir up a riot and conflict....I guess those military factories are reminding the congress they have by the bribes and "donations"...time to stir up the army drum and shoot some missiles as replacements means "work orders & $$$"

Economic War - This is the most laughable one...shows the poster has no global trade experience....if the region turns on China and say no thanks...then yes I would love to see how any European / NATO or Americas can step up to the plate and support the losses here :

i am only stating the main activities here ....there are a ton of ancillary ones....

Australia - Largest trading partner of raw materials

New Zealand - Largest trading partner of diary products

Japan - Complete stop to tourism and trading of manufacturing products

South Korea - Complete stop to manufacturing facilities

Indonesia - Who is buying their natural gas

Myanmar - Who is paying the port fees to use the gas pipe and buying up the bulk of the jade trade, drugs moving across borders

Singapore - This island state is dependant on China....no more NOL ...no more ships to trade

Malaysia - Same as above

Thailand - This is well documented....who do you think is buying all the rotting rice for their prisons...and vegetables, tourism

Vietnam - This is the only independent ;-) Russians well entrenched there ...maybe the USA will find another reason to start something there

Laos & Cambodia - Completely with China as their trade, infrastructure depends on them

Philippines - I can predict this current president making steps to deal firmly with China and getting a hard trade deal and then brushing the incident off , making it a diplomatic embarassment for USA...the deal will be tough & expensive but China will pay for the matter to brush over and make the USA looks like the idiot here

Remember USA is the one stirring up the incident here,,,there is no military incident here and USA is busy getting the countries on military exercises , selling equipment etc to make a quick buck....it's almost ridiculous as a neutral person to see this and wonder what is the USA doing here ?

Protecting the weak ? In the end, China will do a hard deal with some of the poorer countries , but it will be lousy trade agreement and not a Tomahawk unlike the USA.

Edited July 2, 2016 by LawrenceChee

[boomerangutang]

I think what will frustrate USA in this is while it keep trying to align itself to its allies here in Asia, the options of being nothing more than a busybody will stick.

It's obvious that USA opposes much of what China / Russia does, in fact at times it seems instead of co-operation it will oppose for the sake of opposing because it really has no other options other than to get involved in everything because it has to. The lack of long term foresight often happens while it believes often that only military action will work.

As stated by Comrade P ...

Military Action - Won't happen ; Chinese won't fire the first shot and the USA can bring all its fleet there and can't fire one single shot at the civilian actions. Nullified.

It's allies wont start anything ...does Japan & South Korea want a war against a mad Kim...sure go military on China and China may well turn Mad Kim on the South Korea and Japan.......refugees from North Korea through border routes ....be a riot trying to control him and perhaps then the East Asia area will finally appreciate the thankless job of keeping Mad Kim safely buttoned up at a controlled level. Will ASEAN want to deal with all the refugees ? I hope you enjoy kimchi....

Diplomacy - China has been talking to all ASEAN nations and negotiating trade deals that will make it work while Uncle Sam is frantically waving everywhere trying to stir up a riot and conflict....I guess those military factories are reminding the congress they have by the bribes and "donations"...time to stir up the army drum and shoot some missiles as replacements means "work orders & $$$"

Economic War - This is the most laughable one...shows the poster has no global trade experience....if the region turns on China and say no thanks...then yes I would love to see how any European / NATO or Americas can step up to the plate and support the losses here :

i am only stating the main activities here ....there are a ton of ancillary ones....

Australia - Largest trading partner of raw materials

New Zealand - Largest trading partner of diary products

Japan - Complete stop to tourism and trading of manufacturing products

South Korea - Complete stop to manufacturing facilities

Indonesia - Who is buying their natural gas

Myanmar - Who is paying the port fees to use the gas pipe and buying up the bulk of the jade trade, drugs moving across borders

Singapore - This island state is dependant on China....no more NOL ...no more ships to trade

Malaysia - Same as above

Thailand - This is well documented....who do you think is buying all the rotting rice for their prisons...and vegetables, tourism

Vietnam - This is the only independent ;-) Russians well entrenched there ...maybe the USA will find another reason to start something there

Laos & Cambodia - Completely with China as their trade, infrastructure depends on them

Philippines - I can predict this current president making steps to deal firmly with China and getting a hard trade deal and then brushing the incident off , making it a diplomatic embarassment for USA...the deal will be tough & expensive but China will pay for the matter to brush over and make the USA looks like the idiot here

Remember USA is the one stirring up the incident here,,,there is no military incident here and USA is busy getting the countries on military exercises , selling equipment etc to make a quick buck....it's almost ridiculous as a neutral person to see this and wonder what is the USA doing here ?

Protecting the weak ? In the end, China will do a hard deal with some of the poorer countries , but it will be lousy trade agreement and not a Tomahawk unlike the USA.

LC, you are so wrong. But on the bright side, it's good to hear what the Chinese side may be thinking.

LC: "Remember USA is the one stirring up the incident here"

Boomer: Uhhh, flat wrong. Who snuck in to Fil territory and clandestinely started destroying reefs and terra-forming ?

LC: "does Japan & South Korea want a war against a mad Kim(?)"

Boomer: So, LC is saying Kim is China's military sock puppet? Kim is a very stupid man but I don't think even he would be so stupid as to jump to military action if directed by China. Pure sword rattling, comrade Lawrence.

[Publicus]

I think what will frustrate USA in this is while it keep trying to align itself to its allies here in Asia, the options of being nothing more than a busybody will stick.

It's obvious that USA opposes much of what China / Russia does, in fact at times it seems instead of co-operation it will oppose for the sake of opposing because it really has no other options other than to get involved in everything because it has to. The lack of long term foresight often happens while it believes often that only military action will work.

As stated by Comrade P ...

Military Action - Won't happen ; Chinese won't fire the first shot and the USA can bring all its fleet there and can't fire one single shot at the civilian actions. Nullified.

It's allies wont start anything ...does Japan & South Korea want a war against a mad Kim...sure go military on China and China may well turn Mad Kim on the South Korea and Japan.......refugees from North Korea through border routes ....be a riot trying to control him and perhaps then the East Asia area will finally appreciate the thankless job of keeping Mad Kim safely buttoned up at a controlled level. Will ASEAN want to deal with all the refugees ? I hope you enjoy kimchi....

Diplomacy - China has been talking to all ASEAN nations and negotiating trade deals that will make it work while Uncle Sam is frantically waving everywhere trying to stir up a riot and conflict....I guess those military factories are reminding the congress they have by the bribes and "donations"...time to stir up the army drum and shoot some missiles as replacements means "work orders & $$$"

Economic War - This is the most laughable one...shows the poster has no global trade experience....if the region turns on China and say no thanks...then yes I would love to see how any European / NATO or Americas can step up to the plate and support the losses here :

i am only stating the main activities here ....there are a ton of ancillary ones....

Australia - Largest trading partner of raw materials

New Zealand - Largest trading partner of diary products

Japan - Complete stop to tourism and trading of manufacturing products

South Korea - Complete stop to manufacturing facilities

Indonesia - Who is buying their natural gas

Myanmar - Who is paying the port fees to use the gas pipe and buying up the bulk of the jade trade, drugs moving across borders

Singapore - This island state is dependant on China....no more NOL ...no more ships to trade

Malaysia - Same as above

Thailand - This is well documented....who do you think is buying all the rotting rice for their prisons...and vegetables, tourism

Vietnam - This is the only independent ;-) Russians well entrenched there ...maybe the USA will find another reason to start something there

Laos & Cambodia - Completely with China as their trade, infrastructure depends on them

Philippines - I can predict this current president making steps to deal firmly with China and getting a hard trade deal and then brushing the incident off , making it a diplomatic embarassment for USA...the deal will be tough & expensive but China will pay for the matter to brush over and make the USA looks like the idiot here

Remember USA is the one stirring up the incident here,,,there is no military incident here and USA is busy getting the countries on military exercises , selling equipment etc to make a quick buck....it's almost ridiculous as a neutral person to see this and wonder what is the USA doing here ?

Protecting the weak ? In the end, China will do a hard deal with some of the poorer countries , but it will be lousy trade agreement and not a Tomahawk unlike the USA.

The post does indeed provide evidence and proof of how far from the real world CCP are as they also exercise a highly effective control over the minds of the Chinese people via nationalism and ethnic superiority.

CCP ratified the UNCLOS so they need to start to respect it. But then dictators respect force not law as we know from (considerable) past experience.

Next time you meet with the genius CCP masters of the universe with whom you are restructuring CCP in such brilliant and effective ways, tell 'em to respect the international law of the sea and to stop being the region's neighbor from hell.

After the Tribunal's ruling the international community will have the legal and thus the moral basis on which to get involved against CCP Dictators in Beijing. So youse guyz over there ain't seen nuthin yet.

[LawrenceChee]

Your post makes no sense Comrade P as USA has not ratified any and uses what it thinks is moral values to dictate terms and do what it likes ...similar to the UN Child Slavery Act & Kyoto Act and lots of others.

The USA are trying to show force or the med seas with Russia...when there is no military conflict ? Stange ...really strange !

You can clearly see the pattern, get involved, keep the communists in check and stir up military exercises, try to get into a conflict, use military arms with no long term plans, go back to the military factories, get more votes and money and re-start the process...

Missing anything there in that pattern ?

[LawrenceChee]

Boomer

Mad Kim does not listen to China but China has been keeping them fed and diplomatically strung to try not to launch any more of their crazy stuff and stunts ; so while they wont listen to orders of China....if you strangle China economically and China stops feeding that mad machine...what do you think Mad Kim will do ?

Open up the borders, sign up for EU, start to trade, release their prisoners, allow CNN and all foreign press to come into their country and start FCC clubs or you think they will just invade the South Korea for a start to get noticed and then move to wards Japan and whoever else has food in the region and China will have no choice but to allow all the millions of hungry koreans head towards the south...seen what the EU cannot manage in thousands arriving a day at their shores ?

Imagine millions of north koreans all moving towards ASEAN , Japan, Russia, North Asia and South Korea ...

Does any country here have the resources to take care of them, co-ordinate them in their languages and manage in a humane way or will it be a more fenced camps ?

Think long term.....China has not asked for any favours but they have been keeping the conflict here to a good lid...just the annual dumb missile dumb stunt shows....no military action, no cowboy stunts and no crazy bombing of someone's countries..

[LawrenceChee]

I think what will frustrate USA in this is while it keep trying to align itself to its allies here in Asia, the options of being nothing more than a busybody will stick.

It's obvious that USA opposes much of what China / Russia does, in fact at times it seems instead of co-operation it will oppose for the sake of opposing because it really has no other options other than to get involved in everything because it has to. The lack of long term foresight often happens while it believes often that only military action will work.

As stated by Comrade P ...

Military Action - Won't happen ; Chinese won't fire the first shot and the USA can bring all its fleet there and can't fire one single shot at the civilian actions. Nullified.

It's allies wont start anything ...does Japan & South Korea want a war against a mad Kim...sure go military on China and China may well turn Mad Kim on the South Korea and Japan.......refugees from North Korea through border routes ....be a riot trying to control him and perhaps then the East Asia area will finally appreciate the thankless job of keeping Mad Kim safely buttoned up at a controlled level. Will ASEAN want to deal with all the refugees ? I hope you enjoy kimchi....

Diplomacy - China has been talking to all ASEAN nations and negotiating trade deals that will make it work while Uncle Sam is frantically waving everywhere trying to stir up a riot and conflict....I guess those military factories are reminding the congress they have by the bribes and "donations"...time to stir up the army drum and shoot some missiles as replacements means "work orders & $$$"

Economic War - This is the most laughable one...shows the poster has no global trade experience....if the region turns on China and say no thanks...then yes I would love to see how any European / NATO or Americas can step up to the plate and support the losses here :

i am only stating the main activities here ....there are a ton of ancillary ones....

Australia - Largest trading partner of raw materials

New Zealand - Largest trading partner of diary products

Japan - Complete stop to tourism and trading of manufacturing products

South Korea - Complete stop to manufacturing facilities

Indonesia - Who is buying their natural gas

Myanmar - Who is paying the port fees to use the gas pipe and buying up the bulk of the jade trade, drugs moving across borders

Singapore - This island state is dependant on China....no more NOL ...no more ships to trade

Malaysia - Same as above

Thailand - This is well documented....who do you think is buying all the rotting rice for their prisons...and vegetables, tourism

Vietnam - This is the only independent ;-) Russians well entrenched there ...maybe the USA will find another reason to start something there

Laos & Cambodia - Completely with China as their trade, infrastructure depends on them

Philippines - I can predict this current president making steps to deal firmly with China and getting a hard trade deal and then brushing the incident off , making it a diplomatic embarassment for USA...the deal will be tough & expensive but China will pay for the matter to brush over and make the USA looks like the idiot here

Remember USA is the one stirring up the incident here,,,there is no military incident here and USA is busy getting the countries on military exercises , selling equipment etc to make a quick buck....it's almost ridiculous as a neutral person to see this and wonder what is the USA doing here ?

Protecting the weak ? In the end, China will do a hard deal with some of the poorer countries , but it will be lousy trade agreement and not a Tomahawk unlike the USA.

The post does indeed provide evidence and proof of how far from the real world CCP are as they also exercise a highly effective control over the minds of the Chinese people via nationalism and ethnic superiority.

CCP ratified the UNCLOS so they need to start to respect it. But then dictators respect force not law as we know from (considerable) past experience.

Next time you meet with the genius CCP masters of the universe with whom you are restructuring CCP in such brilliant and effective ways, tell 'em to respect the international law of the sea and to stop being the region's neighbor from hell.

After the Tribunal's ruling the international community will have the legal and thus the moral basis on which to get involved against CCP Dictators in Beijing. So youse guyz over there ain't seen nuthin yet.

You mean the same USA that has been ignoring international treaties...mistreating the prisoners in Iraq campaign and holding them without trial , using dog treatment etc and rejecting their human rights with religion, food torture etc etc ?

You are talking the same terms right ? All super powers following and respecting the laws and not pretending ? From my daily experience those in power have to keep their egos at check every day and it is a struggle....but to manage 1.3 billion is a tall order especially when you have to have a hybrid of communism laws and international trade....but I think the CCP while not perfect have a good start and now to reform further while holding true to their terms and ideology

Same one that USA has in its democracy drive ....which in many ways represent one more party and loads of family politics....I like the NZ model better....when yo talk about true democracy....they have a stripper trying to get into their parliament ...representing their rights...doesn't say it is right but they allow it ...so that's democracy not just a donkey and elephant pretending to fight over a party nomination and now we have a carrot head that is nuts and a woman that cannot respect privacy !

So the next POTUS will be .......

[LawrenceChee]

It is stated by Comrade P that the USA observes and respects the UNLCOS ....it's a hollow statement because you wont ratify it because it gives you wiggling room in the event something happen against your favour.

Saying the republicans won't endorse it makes your system weak as your country cannot ratify the same stuff UN child slavery act, can't endorse Kyoto treaties...

Shows your congress will endorse what makes them money and is convenient for them....coz the arm factories will always give you lots of political donations but of course they own you and you have to do what they tell you to push for their agenda in the senate.

CCP just announced this morning they will start military drills in the SEA. So from a neutral point of non military action, now they are forced to join in as they wont back down with President Xi making it clear China is not afraid of trouble.....as the USA keeps staying the area provoking a military response.

In other words, the arm factories win again and once again USA is allowed as a superpower to keep provoking military action because they have zero respect for other people's political and domestic events ....

This is the reason why USA is a nuisance in world affairs....have they articulate what they are going to achieve here ?

Scare the Chinese into retracting the 9 dash line and give up all reclamation and send the island's back to ASEAN and then the USA can exploit them for a business deal ?

Is that the end game ? If that is the case, the Chinese are already negotiating that with Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei ...everyone just want to make $$ and make sure their countries get a fair deal...only the USA is the wavering nutcase trying to scare everyone saying there is a military thing going on when there is none.

But then again the USA foreign policy since the 40s have been bomb, shock and awe.....guess it is the first time since Vietnam they met someone else in Asia that will not listen to this shock and awe BS.

Just sail back to San Diego and give those poor sailors some real pizza and some well deserved shore leave....same goes for the fleet stationed in the med with the Russians and the troops supporting the anti syrian / russian campaign and those still in Afghanistan and Iraq fighting an endless and meaningless war....give those guys a break and just focus on your economy and the citizens and fixing your airports and TSAs...those will benefit more people in reality than this meaningless sail past.

Edited July 4, 2016 by LawrenceChee

[F430murci]

Here, you have the advantage of us. Because, in the west there is a press that at least occasionally can go after the government and not be subject to arrest and closure. But the corruption and brutality done by various government agencies in China goes mostly unreported because it's just way too dangerous for reporters to do their jobs properly. I remember when the NY Times reported on how wealthy the families of eminent party officials had become. As a result, The Times got banned.. The only time the Chinese Press reports on corruption is when rivals of the ruling clique get prosecuted. It's truly amazing how honest and incorruptible the family and friends of Xi Jinping are. I mean, the Chinese media never seem to have a bad thing to say about them. Odd, that.

The CCP is not a perfect Govt ....no practical Chinese believes in that including myself, I just hosted 25 government officials and trying to get them to stick to a timetable of meeting was harder and i needed Cesar there to do his "sshhhh" thing and the nudge to show who is the pack leader

Been to a Chinese reeducation camp before ? I can bet you its not the Norwegian jails which we are still studying where that will work for such a big jail population

Seen the recent purges in CCP party by Xi ? Some of it released to the press and what happen to their families and themselves in court ?

No happy smart aleck Lawyers here to get you off the hook ....no John Grisham storyline of a technicality or plead of insanity ...its just guilty and head to the camps ...

How many senators have been purged for bribery so far or generals convicted of bribes recently by the Glen case ...what happen to them ? Have they been stripped of their rank sing and lost their pension yet ?

Have they been shot ?

The Chinese know if you do something wrong ....eventually the officials will come and everything is taken away ...

As the poster said , only news of the opposing cliques is published ...when you add that up happening on both sides every time we change a president for 10 years you find we have got rid of more unethical officials but it's not a numbers games as we know government is inevitably temped to cheat and that is down to the person

We have seen it happening in rich and poor countries , democratic and not

I don't even know why the Chinese bother to hold trials. Since the verdict has already been decided.

Same reasons they don't understand why you hold trials and have all these dud cases (not all) that makes a mickey out of the judicial systems and wasting tax payers money

Like why do you have a trial and can sue Mcd when you walk into a glass door ? Why would you waste time like this and not apply common sense and laugh it off

Ever tried suing Mcd in Thailand for having too spicy burgers and giving you a heart burn ? Why won't you do it here or argue with immigration ?

Sadly, your are educated by the internet or Thai Visa and have absolutely ZERO clue about our judiciary system and tort law or how it functions and what the results are on a day to day basis here in America. Perhaps you impress or amuse your other friends living in China or SE Asia educated by TV forums or the internet, but you come across sounding a bit ignorant and comical to anyone with any sense and that is even remotely informed about reality.

[Publicus]

It is stated by Comrade P that the USA observes and respects the UNLCOS ....it's a hollow statement because you wont ratify it because it gives you wiggling room in the event something happen against your favour.

Saying the republicans won't endorse it makes your system weak as your country cannot ratify the same stuff UN child slavery act, can't endorse Kyoto treaties...

Shows your congress will endorse what makes them money and is convenient for them....coz the arm factories will always give you lots of political donations but of course they own you and you have to do what they tell you to push for their agenda in the senate.

CCP just announced this morning they will start military drills in the SEA. So from a neutral point of non military action, now they are forced to join in as they wont back down with President Xi making it clear China is not afraid of trouble.....as the USA keeps staying the area provoking a military response.

In other words, the arm factories win again and once again USA is allowed as a superpower to keep provoking military action because they have zero respect for other people's political and domestic events ....

This is the reason why USA is a nuisance in world affairs....have they articulate what they are going to achieve here ?

Scare the Chinese into retracting the 9 dash line and give up all reclamation and send the island's back to ASEAN and then the USA can exploit them for a business deal ?

Is that the end game ? If that is the case, the Chinese are already negotiating that with Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei ...everyone just want to make $$ and make sure their countries get a fair deal...only the USA is the wavering nutcase trying to scare everyone saying there is a military thing going on when there is none.

But then again the USA foreign policy since the 40s have been bomb, shock and awe.....guess it is the first time since Vietnam they met someone else in Asia that will not listen to this shock and awe BS.

Just sail back to San Diego and give those poor sailors some real pizza and some well deserved shore leave....same goes for the fleet stationed in the med with the Russians and the troops supporting the anti syrian / russian campaign and those still in Afghanistan and Iraq fighting an endless and meaningless war....give those guys a break and just focus on your economy and the citizens and fixing your airports and TSAs...those will benefit more people in reality than this meaningless sail past.

CCP just announced this morning they will start military drills in the SEA. So from a neutral point of non military action, now they are forced to join in as they wont back down with President Xi making it clear China is not afraid of trouble.....as the USA keeps staying the area provoking a military response.

So the thousand Chinese fishing boats (militia) whose (armed and trained) civilian crews trawling in to reefs, islands, lagoons and the like in the EEZs of other nations to grab the sea's features aren't faring so well are they. The PLA Navy is having to come out to play after all. Who doubted it?

CCP closing a part of the SCS to its Navy's maneuvers is a new issue now that Beijing has felt forced to put some cards on the table. Will CCP claim sovereignty of the zoned off area of the Paracel island group on a permanent basis after the 7-day Naval maneuvers? The PLA Navy stuff ends the day before the PCA will deliver its ruling on July 12th. Hmmmm...

CCP decided this suddenly Sunday night and did in fact announce it this morning, which most directly affects Vietnam..

China bans South China Sea access due to military navigations

Beijing has banned access to waters near the Paracel islands in the South China Sea, which are controlled by China but also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan, between July 5-11 to carry out military movements.

The exercises, announced late Sunday night by China's Maritime Safety Administration in a statement, will take place a week before the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague delivers its verdict on July 12, on a complaint filed by the Philippines.

However, the naval manoeuvres will be carried out in another area of the South China Sea, which is not claimed by the Philippines, located east of the Chinese island of Hainan, in a stretch extending to the Paracel islands, known as the Xisha islands in Chinese.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-bans-south-china-sea-access-due-to-military-navigations-116070400187_1.html

CCP has said for a couple of decades that it has it's "core interests" which are its issues of national sovereignty. CCP has made clear it will use force to secure or to maintain any of its several "core interests" such as the SCS. CCP claims sovereignty over all of the South China Sea, to include Woody Island in the Paracels which it has armed with antiaircraft missile batteries.

The PLA Navy maneuvers that begin tomorrow will be closer to the Philippines actually, south of Taiwan near Taiping Island in dispute between Taiwan and the Phils and also in dispute between Taipei and Beijing, and in the sea channels to the Paracels. US Pacific Command in Hawaii confirmed yesterday the USS Ronald Reagan Aircraft Carrier Strike Force 15 is at this time operating in the SCS, but the Pearl Harbor Command Center would not disclose the exact location or position of the Force.

The Regan Strike Force to include fast-attack submarines completed maneuvers last week in the Philippine Sea, with naval forces of India and Japan, and which is the eastern area of the SCS. The Carrier Stennis Strike Force Three to include its attack subs also participated in the joint maneuvers, all of which were very nearby the area CCP have chosen for its hastily decided and announced Naval maneuvers.

“Our forward-deployed ships are operating here to maintain the seas open for all to use,” Wall Street Journal quoted Rear Admiral John D. Alexander, commander of Task Force 70, which includes the USS Ronald Reagan strike group and the John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group, as saying. The U.S. Navy didn’t respond to a request for comment on Sunday.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-hold-military-exercises-in-south-china-sea-raising-tensions-1467542325

Beijing is making noises now but USN has gone silent.

Run silent, run deep.

Edited July 4, 2016 by Publicus

[LawrenceChee]

Stop selling arms to this region and the rest and stirring up emotions ....see if it makes a difference.....like I say the military factories own the senate and we have 2 incoming potential POTUS who have no integrity and is racist and feels they own the world....

great way to foresee there will be no world peace for the next 4 years ......

Singapore, played USA for a fool in the early formation years to get cheap loans ....Malaysia is anti USA, Cambodia & Laos needs China's aid and not the ADB....Brunei is counting on continued deals with the Chinese...Vietnam has defeated USA and know it's an easy foe to manipulate and smartly hedging with the Russians too ...Philippines has also been smart in playing to its Macarthur days and using the USA to get what they want from China....in the end...Myanmar is using Aung as its trump card tio opening up its economy and most predict it will be adopting a Chinese quasi military / communist with commercial trades and using USA / Europe for now and later China ...have you seen how many foreign brands have jumped in the last 4 years....they are allowing this quick adoption of trade and branding and will later revert back to a harsher model...

It will be harsh for USA to accept but every ASEAN country know USA is a kind hearted soul and can be manipulated if you play the weak card against China....in the end USA will have to accept that these ASEAN countries are like the middle east, highly complex culturally, has deep seeded mistrust for each other, not united and not interested in more than lip service integration. Just in this small area of 10 countries where I have lived in 5 of them....I can see the daily racism that will not stop and they don't believe in democracy (even Singapore is not a democracy) and the USA have been floating around its policies depending on who they need the most...sounds familiar ? almost like the other thread we are on Comrade P on the middle east...

USA is silent on Myanmar's distinct buddhist group that is routing the muslims and refusing to say they exist...it keeps silent because for now the highlight and attention is on Aung and no one wants her to fail in her state democracy which the military is allowing to get the capital deals much needed to strengthen their positions later.....if you have dealings with the military government like some of the other posters have ...you know they are getting tired of the Strand ...hence cue in Hyatt, Marriott, Peninsula and a renovated Strand....in 5 years these will be great places for the military sorts to have their annual parties and meetings :-)

ASEAN is that cruel and USA is sucked in again like the middle east...

[Publicus]

Lawyers for the Philippines argue their case at the UN sponsored Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands, which was founded in 1896, on September 12, 2015.

CCP in Beijing is not participating in the proceedings and has asserted it will not accept the Tribunal's final ruling.

[metisdead]

Posts in violation of fair use policy have been removed.

[boomerangutang]

Boomer

Mad Kim does not listen to China but China has been keeping them fed and diplomatically strung to try not to launch any more of their crazy stuff and stunts ; so while they wont listen to orders of China....if you strangle China economically and China stops feeding that mad machine...what do you think Mad Kim will do ?

Yet another threat by China, if things don't go their way? Already, the int'l community expects cyber attacks and possibly physical attacks on foreigners in China, if China's plans get rebuffed. There are many other non-military ways the Chinese (officially and unofficially) can express their anger and vindictiveness. .....is the threat of 'Mad Kim' going berserk with missiles yet another layer of threats?

When I was growing up, my mom would threaten to do crazy things if she didn't get her way. ....and sometimes she did (I've got a lot of zany stories, and few scars - but we'll save those for another day). Is that what China will resort to, when it doesn't get its way in its territory grab? Military action is one thing. At least that's mostly career soldier vs career soldier. That's bad enough. But we all know, in this crazy world of daily civilian bombings, that much more harm can be done (outside of military venues), than military vs military action.

Edited July 5, 2016 by metisdead
2. Please do not modify someone else's post in your quoted reply, either with font or color changes or wording.

[LawrenceChee]

Boomer

Mad Kim does not listen to China but China has been keeping them fed and diplomatically strung to try not to launch any more of their crazy stuff and stunts ; so while they wont listen to orders of China....if you strangle China economically and China stops feeding that mad machine...what do you think Mad Kim will do ?

Yet another threat by China, if things don't go their way? Already, the int'l community expects cyber attacks and possibly physical attacks on foreigners in China, if China's plans get rebuffed. There are many other non-military ways the Chinese (officially and unofficially) can express their anger and vindictiveness. .....is the threat of 'Mad Kim' going berserk with missiles yet another layer of threats?

When I was growing up, my mom would threaten to do crazy things if she didn't get her way. ....and sometimes she did (I've got a lot of zany stories, and few scars - but we'll save those for another day). Is that what China will resort to, when it doesn't get its way in its territory grab? Military action is one thing. At least that's mostly career soldier vs career soldier. That's bad enough. But we all know, in this crazy world of daily civilian bombings, that much more harm can be done (outside of military venues), than military vs military action.

it's not a threat but a reality...if every community joins the USA in starving out the Chinese to give way, would any sane country still continue to support or divert resources to support North Korea ?

Asians are pragmatic...you can give rice way if you have extra....when there is none, your mum will not be giving the neighbour any because her family comes first. China would do the same...if there is going to be all sorts of threats from the west and their citizens welfare is in danger, as a communist states, their ideology provides self preservation first.

China has been keeping North Korea in check with no military force or threats or silly power displays ...just pragmatic Asian solutions ...keep your dangerous neighbours well fed so that they don't have any crazy ideas of invasion.

If USA did the same instead of mad arms sales to all sorts in the middle east and now starting again in ASEAN, it may well find itself with lesser enemies and lesser bombings...this is a reality.

[JetsetBkk]

So "boots on the deck" is OK, but "boots on the ground" isn't?

[Publicus]

CCP state owned and controlled media said today the CCP Chinese people need to be prepared for a military conflict in the South China Sea.

China Should Prepare for Military Conflict in South China Sea: State Media

PLA Navy ships in the South China Sea heading for exercises July 05, 2016

China should prepare itself for military confrontation in the South China Sea, an influential Chinese paper said on Tuesday, a week ahead of a decision by an international court on a dispute there between China and the Philippines.(Photo : Getty Images)

http://www.chinatopix.com/articles/94432/20160705/china-should-prepare-for-military-conflict-in-south-china-sea-state-media.htm

[LawrenceChee]

The word confrontation does not mean CCP will start it but they have to be prepare themselves to defend it and their rights as USA is meddling again and this is not Guam or some small country it is trying to play games with.

Engaging China is at the same scale as Russia ....it's a big foe to think you can trifle with and all have big egos...USA started this warpath confrontation by deliberately bringing its fleet here and holding exercises simulating attacks and engagements ...Russia wont take it standing down neither will China ...so now USA has made enemies out of 2 foes....instead of engaging in positive foreign affairs and concentrating on trade...

Only happy people from Comrade P post is the factories churning out bombs and missiles and planes etc as their revenue forecast just went up and a fat bonus is waiting...guess more dinners for the senators soon.

[boomerangutang]

Hey Lawrence: China has already started it. They started it when they clandestinely went and began messing around at another country's territories. Even if the territory was not 100% clearly belonging to Philippines, it's still a very underhanded way to conduct business.

Imagine there's a car parked along your neighbor's property line. It's a nice looking car, but nobody's been driving it. You think, "hmmm, my weaker neighbor has a nice car but he doesn't appreciate it, because he just keeps it parked. I would appreciate it more, plus I would give it a coat of paint to make it prettier."

Then, in the dark of night, you sneak over and take your neighbor's car. When anyone asks, you say, "It was mine all the time, because I wanted it and I could fix it up."

China started the confrontation in the SCS by sneaking in there and commandeering other peoples' territory. Whatever ensues is China's fault as much as anyone else's.

[LawrenceChee]

Hey Lawrence: China has already started it. They started it when they clandestinely went and began messing around at another country's territories. Even if the territory was not 100% clearly belonging to Philippines, it's still a very underhanded way to conduct business.

Imagine there's a car parked along your neighbor's property line. It's a nice looking car, but nobody's been driving it. You think, "hmmm, my weaker neighbor has a nice car but he doesn't appreciate it, because he just keeps it parked. I would appreciate it more, plus I would give it a coat of paint to make it prettier."

Then, in the dark of night, you sneak over and take your neighbor's car. When anyone asks, you say, "It was mine all the time, because I wanted it and I could fix it up."

China started the confrontation in the SCS by sneaking in there and commandeering other peoples' territory. Whatever ensues is China's fault as much as anyone else's.

The underlying reason is simple...it's a resource needs for 1.3 billion people and China is trying to secure their supply chains...so they are offering trade and infrastructure deals with no ideology changes which suits most ASEAN countries but not the west as it is uncomfortable with those kid of deals unless it include arm deals which will make the gun trotting people happy.

Japan and USA stands to lose out and hence allying up...I can assure you for the right trade deal, Philippines concerns will dissipate ...the question now is what is the deal that will be considered fair enough to them.

Remember these are small parcel pieces of land...if there is no resources underneath or the potential...no one would be keen on them much less ASEAN countries as they have enough slums to deal with and could not care less for islands far fetching.

No one went in on a military front or created a military front but the USA...hence my earlier points...this is the only foreign policy known to USA, send in the carriers, intimidate and try to scare smaller countries into an agreement...This arena will be bloody if USA chooses to engage it like it engaged the middle east with no long term plan....you can see how the arena in ME has changed from country to country and every conflict started by the USA in this regard is a ill thought process on what to do next so they keep floating around every Arab spring country with no real plan...Europe is disengaged in this as they have seen the immigrants coming in and have enough financial problems to deal with than worry about ME.

China and Russia is not ME...and the confrontation will be bloody and senseless when all wanted by the ASEAN nations is the best possible trade deal. Philippines need infrastructure and money to do that to build up their country....they don't need a war or want one.

[boomerangutang]

LC opines: "The underlying reason is simple...it's a resource needs for 1.3 billion people and China is trying to secure their supply chains"

Boomer responds: We won't agree on this. LC thinks that if there's a reason (over a billion people needing resources) then that justifies taking other countries' possessions. Stealing is stealing.

If a mother says to her little kid: "Don't steal, but if you really want something, it's ok to steal it. Particularly if you're bigger than the person you're stealing from."

No. Sorry, China can trot out all sorts of soggy excuses, but the international community will still respond with: "You can't justify taking something which is not yours, no matter how much you want it."

The only excuse that will work is if China can prove that the properties have ALWAYS been owned by Chinese. Note: Just SOMETIMES doesn't work. Nearly every piece of real estate in the world has had at least two owners at various times. Parts of the French/German border have changed hands a dozen times. Re; the SCS, China never owned any of the islands or shoals in question, so they're on shakier ground than Portugal wanting to reclaim Angola or Spain wanting to reclaim Florida.

Edited July 6, 2016 by boomerangutang

[boomerangutang]

China knows it doesn't have a leg to stand on. It's known all along that it was doing illegal things. That's why it decided, when if first heard of an international tribunal, to not recognize the jurists' findings. China knew, from the moment it heard Fils and VN were going to int'l arbitration that it (China) would be found to be the belligerents.

Any harm (military or otherwise) that stems from the SCS territory grab is completely China's fault. They instigated the problems.there.

Troubles on the horizon. Thanks China.

[LawrenceChee]

It's okay ...the complexity of how the Asians think is not easily understood and how trade is at the foremost of most discussions and minds here of the governments

I can hear you clearly Boomer - Everything is China's fault.

Let's just wait out for a few more months / next year when there is greater clarity and you can write another update

I'm not cheering for one of those " I told you so moments " just how dim the west may at times underestimate the east's resolve and ability to negotiate money deals out of complexly political situations

Again not everyone's cup of tea ...since the west is more used to military confrontation and then victory conferences to slice up land / laws resources etc

Like I mentioned China is not Guam or Okinawa ...the USA won't win out of this one and gaining another partner similar to Russia to watch for is moving backwards not forward ...USA have been keen to engage China to counter Russia on this theatre but it will probably lose it soon

I hope China will stay committed to the North Korea situation as they have had for years ...about time Japan and South Korea engage them too instead of the military exercises which is counterproductive to the region

The USA always have the same methods ...we have a barking mad dog Kim ? Let's send more Rottweilers and train everyone there to be pitbulls and make sure our allies have killer dog instincts too. Great way to defuse a fight ...3 big egos no matter who wants to be the winner it will be ugly

[Publicus]

We might start with the Asean driven Code of Conduct CCP signed with Asean concerning the SCS, in 2002 then trashed by Beijing in 2012. Then we could discuss the Asean proposed Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea that CCP trashed, also in 2012 (an expansion of the CoC).

Then of course there is the CCP Dictators rejection of the applicability of the ILOS itself to the SCS, which under the UNCLOS is an international waterway on the high seas and which has international airspace over it.

The bottom line at this point is that CCP wants Asean to agree to set aside -- ignore -- the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague when the Tribunal announces its ruling July 12th. Beijing Dictators are trying to buy off the new President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte. Duterte has made clear he supports the UNCLOS and Asean while he also wants to milk CCP for all he can get for the Phils.

Duterte does not want hostilities and wants instead for CCP to negotiate with the Phils, perhaps appoint a special Phils negotiator to CCP. We know how CCP Chinese negotiate, i.e., what's China's is China's and what's yours is China's too, so let's see what the Pres. Duterte might know about how Beijing negotiates -- if that might be what it may come to.

The Asean position is that no one country can itself negotiate unilaterally over issues that affect two or more Asean countries. Given that CCP have by design destroyed any unity Asean could ever have faintly mustered, we'll see how this may develop over the next several days.

Beijing has always overplayed its hand in the SCS.

[Scott]

This topic seems to have passed its Use By date.

//CLOSED//