Why the Euro and British pound so strong against Thai Baht?

[kingalfred]

I was thinking of buying some of these currencies before travelling later this year.,but they are particularly strong against Thai baht at the moment. Maybe better to wait until after Brexit vote in June. Any advice?

[dageurreotype]

What are you talking about? Forex today -

1.00 GBP =

51.4199 THB

[Bantex]

Good news for those with pensions from the UK.

[daveAustin]

GDP has been in the doldrums with the Baht for a number of years, esp the last few months. Pound finally corrected a bit this month (tut tut!) and a fair whack today, but is still low. If anything the Baht is artificially high. Did you see what it was like 10 years ago?

[kingalfred]

What are you talking about? Forex today - 1.00 GBP =

51.4199 THB

so? Thats not good for travelling "To" UK

[Jip99]

GDP has been in the doldrums with the Baht for a number of years, esp the last few months. Pound finally corrected a bit this month (tut tut!) and a fair whack today, but is still low. If anything the Baht is artificially high. Did you see what it was like 10 years ago?

Did you see what it was 3 years ago ?

No point in pinning expectations on a 10 year old rate - you may as well quote 1997 and the exchange rate of 90+. Others will quote the early 1980's when it was 34.

Today's net rate of 50.8 looks good compared to 34.

I had a year of rates trading at 60 - 70. For 8 years it has been noticeably under 60.

I am now content whenever the rate goes over 50.

[SantiSuk]

GBP is reckoned to be weak against all currencies at the moment, a product of the uncertainties of the EU referendum. Most commentators expect it to rise if the Brits vote to remain and fall in the immediate aftermath of an exit. Same with UK shares (/stocks)

My money is where my mouth is - I believe the UK will remain but it will be marginal, due to inertia (most Brits are generally conservative with a small c and do not risk major change; it's also difficult to get 30% of that type out to vote)*. Therefore:

* I have not made any cash transfers to Thailand (part of my deposits are invested in Thailand due to still relatively favourable interest rates and tax position) and nor will I until around the time of the vote

* I have sold down 10% of my UK portfolio and will reinvest after the vote (or in October - I am generally (but only on the margin a "sell in May ...." follower anyway)

*Personally I'm in favour of remaining and against the anti-immigration hype, but that's a qualified remain vote and a whole different issue to the purpose of this thread.

Edited May 18, 2016 by SantiSuk

[baansgr]

I read an article last week from the MPC saying that Brexit will cause Sterling to crash, hence making imports more expensive and inflation to rocket making the BOE to increase interest rates upto 5% causing all sorts of problems for buy to letters and families with mortgages. I remember in 2009, Sterling lost 30% almost overnight, yet interest rates were kept at 0.5% and inflation supposedly was below 2%......

[lostmebike]

What are you talking about? Forex today - 1.00 GBP =

51.4199 THB

so? Thats not good for travelling "To" UK

Just cos you are travelling doesn't mean the pound and euro are strong, does it?

You should look at how high sterling and the euro were a few years back before claiming they are strong now.

Surely you know this already!?

[mihalis]

Why worry, Aussie is terrible still !!

[alant]

I read an article last week from the MPC saying that Brexit will cause Sterling to crash, hence making imports more expensive and inflation to rocket making the BOE to increase interest rates upto 5% causing all sorts of problems for buy to letters and families with mortgages. I remember in 2009, Sterling lost 30% almost overnight, yet interest rates were kept at 0.5% and inflation supposedly was below 2%......

the £ has lost about 10% over the year and the BOE have done jack, therefore should the pound falter they will once again, try to form, do jack. Meanwhile the scaremongers make tons manipulating the currency markets.

[MDS]

The British are going to be 'scared' into voting to stay in Europe irrespective of whether it's right or wrong and after they vote to stay in I believe the pound will rise against all currencies.

[Naam]

I read an article last week from the MPC saying that Brexit will cause Sterling to crash, hence making imports more expensive and inflation to rocket making the BOE to increase interest rates upto 5% causing all sorts of problems for buy to letters and families with mortgages. I remember in 2009, Sterling lost 30% almost overnight, yet interest rates were kept at 0.5% and inflation supposedly was below 2%......

no fairy tales please!

[Kabula]

Life is short!

Buy a basket of currencies and travel now...

Enjoy your money now.

And, use those credit cards from time to time...if you have a pension have it deposited in your home bank checking and pay the credit card balances on line with a transfer from checking to credit card. If you don't use them, you lose the credit over time these days.

Worldwide, most have lost their savings, investments and homes. If you don't spend it a hacker may or your bank may need your money (bailin) to stay afloat.

Just have fun and don't put off today doing what you dream about.....do it now!

Edited May 18, 2016 by Kabula

[Briggsy]

If I understand the OP correctly, kingalfred, he has Baht and wishes to purchase £ or $ for the purposes of travel.

I would recommend that now is a good time to buy £. However, the OP needs to deduct the cost of holding £'s for several months. Will it be in cash? That is risky and provides no interest. If that is the case, wait till nearer the time.

[nontabury]

I read an article last week from the MPC saying that Brexit will cause Sterling to crash, hence making imports more expensive and inflation to rocket making the BOE to increase interest rates upto 5% causing all sorts of problems for buy to letters and families with mortgages. I remember in 2009, Sterling lost 30% almost overnight, yet interest rates were kept at 0.5% and inflation supposedly was below 2%......

Plenty of scare stories, that's all the remain crowd have to offer.

[SantiSuk]

Life is short!

Buy a basket of currencies and travel now...

Enjoy your money now.

And, use those credit cards from time to time...if you have a pension have it deposited in your home bank checking and pay the credit card balances on line with a transfer from checking to credit card. If you don't use them, you lose the credit over time these days.

Worldwide, most have lost their savings, investments and homes. If you don't spend it a hacker may or your bank may need your money (bailin) to stay afloat.

Just have fun and don't put off today doing what you dream about.....do it now!

Fun sentiment but complete bollux if you want a long and happy life. Live for today and tomorrow comes around all too soon. Are you Thai by any chance?

Can we have some support for your ludicrous statement in the penultimate para

It's a fine sentiment if you are sub-40 and a high earner with a marketable/desirable skill. I venture that doesn't apply to 95% (nay 99%?) of ThaiVisa members.

Sorry to be so unexciting - what do you expect from a former chartered accountant?

I need to lighten up. I realise now you were being tongue in cheek

[Chongalulu]

GBP is reckoned to be weak against all currencies at the moment, a product of the uncertainties of the EU referendum. Most commentators expect it to rise if the Brits vote to remain and fall in the immediate aftermath of an exit. Same with UK shares (/stocks)

My money is where my mouth is - I believe the UK will remain but it will be marginal, due to inertia (most Brits are generally conservative with a small c and do not risk major change; it's also difficult to get 30% of that type out to vote)*. Therefore:

* I have not made any cash transfers to Thailand (part of my deposits are invested in Thailand due to still relatively favourable interest rates and tax position) and nor will I until around the time of the vote

* I have sold down 10% of my UK portfolio and will reinvest after the vote (or in October - I am generally (but only on the margin a "sell in May ...." follower anyway)

*Personally I'm in favour of remaining and against the anti-immigration hype, but that's a qualified remain vote and a whole different issue to the purpose of this thread.

I've read a number of your knowledgeable comments on finance and tax which I've found helpful. I'm in total agreement with your Brexit predictions although puzzled as to why you've sold 10% of your portfolio with the intention of reinvesting in October if you believe stocks will increase after a remain vote. I've recently sold off some long held BT shares to crystallise my 2015/16 CGT allowance (I still have a chunk) but haven't reinvested,mainly because I'm not sure what to replace them with,but concerned I've got £15k doing nothing sitting in the investment account (I'm up to my limit on my Santander 123 account for the amount I can enjoy 3% interest on.). Rules forbid me from putting it into my managed ISA or pension fund now I'm abroad.Any overall suggestions?

[paulbj2]

This period, just before the Brexit vote and in the run up to the US elections, is a tricky one for me as most of my pension income is paid in Euros and, at the moment, all my savings are in an account designated in Euros. I believe that there will be a radical evolution of Forex rates both for the £ Sterling and the Euro immediately following the Brexit vote whatever the outcome, but of course, upon the outcome depends the direction of the evolution. I think probably both £ Sterling and Euro will benefit from a "remain" vote but that both will crash following an "exit" vote. I also fear for the stability of the US$ if Trump gets the keys to the White House and indeed if Sanders should prevail (although it is Sanders that I myself would support if I voted in the US) I have the option to move my savings into accounts designated in a range that includes most of the worlds major currencies but at the moment, I have no idea which one to choose. Any have any suggestions?

[Paul Phuket]

It's weak as others have said anything under 50 hurts!! 10% loss in last year or so makes a difference when your on a pension. Mine only increased 0.5% this year.

I just transferred 10k and got 51.14. My views brexit will make long term better but could make pound weak short term. However remain will keep it stable for now and same same!! I'm for hoping it gets back to 2004 and 75! But anything in between would be good.. The baht follows the strength of the dollar nearly always and is more affected by changes in that.

[Eneukman]

As others have said, the £ is weak at present. Now, if it moved back up to, say, 60 or so to the baht, I might suggest that it was getting strong again.

Alan

[somo]

The bookies are offering Leave 11/4 and Stay 2/7 so you can all stop worrying about the pound crashing.

When remain wins the pound won't rocket but may gain a little initially. I am hoping for around 55 before I bring money over.

[IMA_FARANG]

I read an article last week from the MPC saying that Brexit will cause Sterling to crash, hence making imports more expensive and inflation to rocket making the BOE to increase interest rates upto 5% causing all sorts of problems for buy to letters and families with mortgages. I remember in 2009, Sterling lost 30% almost overnight, yet interest rates were kept at 0.5% and inflation supposedly was below 2%......

------------------------------------

i am not sure if tht article is true or not.....but, for a fact, those with vested interests and reason to profit on one side or the other, are going all out now to convince potential voters on both sides.

Myself, i always follow the old 80% rule......which days that 80% of everything you read or hear is B----hit anyway.

[IMA_FARANG]

I read an article last week from the MPC saying that Brexit will cause Sterling to crash, hence making imports more expensive and inflation to rocket making the BOE to increase interest rates upto 5% causing all sorts of problems for buy to letters and families with mortgages. I remember in 2009, Sterling lost 30% almost overnight, yet interest rates were kept at 0.5% and inflation supposedly was below 2%......

------------------------------------

i am not sure if tht article is true or not.....but, for a fact, those with vested interests and reason to profit on one side or the other, are going all out now to convince potential voters on both sides.

Myself, i always follow the old 80% rule......which days that 80% of everything you read or hear is B----hit anyway.

[chilli42]

Since everyone here is an expert .... I believe there is further upside in the US$. Buy US dollars now with your Baht then when you travel, use the US$ to buy the currency of the destination country.

[SantiSuk]

Replying to nchuckle.

I'm ready to reinvest if it becomes clearer that there will be a remain vote. Still not 100% on that - a lot can change quickly in matters politic. Also looking back at the sales I made in late April they were actually more geared to the US and Europe part of my portfolio.

I hesitate to offer advice on individual's plans as they so much depend on personal factors and individual circumstances. A financial planner would explore all of these in depth*.

I have reasonably significant pension income above my state pension and that means that investing through the UK (the most regulated and safest economy in the world IMO) is and remains tax-advantaged. The excluded income rules applying to savings and investment income seem not to have been adversely impacted by the UK dividend and savings tax changes at 5th April this year. Whether excluded income rules apply to a non-resident investor through the UK depends on the level of your income (both non-investment and investment income). For many it is better to be taxed on your savings and investment income and claim the standard UK personal tax allowance of £11,000 (that allowance now applies to all ages).

If, by dint of the excluded income rules or by dint of having sufficient personal allowances to cover your taxable income, you get dividend income at no (or very low) rates of tax then it is even more incentive to invest a good proportion of long term money through high income products or high income/equity income shares (/stocks). I tend to favour the latter - I suppose I don't trust high income managers to do the right thing if their income rates are dropping - ie I fear they will go up the risk scale and expose me to capital loss.

My knowledge base from 4 decades of investing has been all about equities and I admit a blindness towards bonds - that's why now in my retirement years I am beginning to take on paid advice for one-third of my overall net worth (with a view to reflecting on that for the whole of my portfolio). I observe that these advisers are going down an equity-rich path at this stage of the cycle but I don't discount that bonds may start to offer a good balance again in the relatively short term.

It is widely reported that dividend income returns in the UK have plateaud and are slowing elsewhere. I'm an optimist for a recovery from this global mini-slowdown so personally I am sticking with equity income investing and will be benefiting from a widening discount in some such investment trusts if I can get my timing right on the next tranche of investment/reinvestment. Normally I would never buy in the period May 1st to September 30th unless I thought there was a major recovery from a significant recessionary period in the short to medium term future (medium can quickly become short!). We have not been in a significant recessionary period recently - a 5% Jan-March retrenchment doesn't count as that. However, the Euro referendum is a special circumstance and I remain ready to reinvest at a moments notice (well, within 24 hours anyway) if I judge sentiment to be turning re the vote and the market in general. You can rarely get it just right and I would expect to miss the first few percent of a bounce but that is never an excuse for waiting for the market to drop and give you the same opportunity. If markets remain subdued I will wait until early October to reinvest the 10% cash (that sits on my broker deposit accounts earning not much - 0.5% at best).

Don't stick solely to the UK. Europe is demonstrating the same features as the UK and I have thankfully ignored the general weight of advice to de-emphasise the US this year. Nobody got rich by ignoring the power of US markets to be the first out of a slowdown.

*EG - I like to maintain a relatively high dividend income. It allows me to demonstrate a healthy level of unspent income which can then be transferred to my family as an IHT-exempt transfer (which will become unnecessary when I have the confidence that I can claim non-domicile UK. So my own portfolio is probably skewed more to maintaining income than ideal.

[billphillips]

A strange an clearly manipulated currency situation exists over here. Much talk about the UK pound loosing value because they are merely talking about leaving the EU. By comparison the Baht stays relatively strong even through everything that's happened since the economically crippling BKK floods up to the current day political fiasco and economical crisis. Clearly the BoT uses tourist origin foreign currency to buy Baht on the international money market, nothing wrong with that. I would think that for a considerable time now the BoT spending is far exceeding its income, nothing wrong with that. Digging into its once massive foreign currency reserve must one day stop or slow down noticeably, then watch the fun begin.

[sawadee1947]

I read an article last week from the MPC saying that Brexit will cause Sterling to crash, hence making imports more expensive and inflation to rocket making the BOE to increase interest rates upto 5% causing all sorts of problems for buy to letters and families with mortgages. I remember in 2009, Sterling lost 30% almost overnight, yet interest rates were kept at 0.5% and inflation supposedly was below 2%......

no fairy tales please!

All economists are predicting a falling GBP. So probably not only tales. Maybe not 30% but expected 20%. That's the price for stupidity and ignorance.

[Naam]

I read an article last week from the MPC saying that Brexit will cause Sterling to crash, hence making imports more expensive and inflation to rocket making the BOE to increase interest rates upto 5% causing all sorts of problems for buy to letters and families with mortgages. I remember in 2009, Sterling lost 30% almost overnight, yet interest rates were kept at 0.5% and inflation supposedly was below 2%......

no fairy tales please!

All economists are predicting a falling GBP. So probably not only tales. Maybe not 30% but expected 20%. That's the price for stupidity and ignorance.

please use reading glasses. my fairy tale comment pertained to

in 2009, Sterling lost 30% almost overnight

how is the year 2009 connected to "BRexit"?

Edited May 18, 2016 by Naam

[sawadee1947]

All economists are predicting a falling GBP. So probably not only tales. Maybe not 30% but expected 20%. That's the price for stupidity and ignorance.

please use reading glasses. my fairy tale comment pertained to

in 2009, Sterling lost 30% almost overnight

how is the year 2009 connected to "BRexit"?

well those people in the glass house again....I suppose you need a magnifier glass. We ARE talking about the Brexit and the GBP. And my quote was connected precisely to that fact.

But continue enjoying your Leo o.s.