New Brexit polls suggest shift in favour of leaving the EU

[dick dasterdly]

FTSE futures called massively up this morning and sterling cable on a tear as risk of BREXIT reverses.

The murder of the MP will be viewed as the defining point of the campaign.

There are plenty of undecideds out there but now they are coming around to the yes side.

The optics of it are that a no vote rewards murderous bigoted little englanders and their cheer squads. Most people don't want to be one of those.

Game over, referendum lost for the brexit crew.

Depressing if voters are unable to see beyond the odd nutter. I doubt they are that stupid, but suspect they will be concerned about stability (the devil you know) and so will vote to keep the status quo.

I was careful to use the word 'optics'.

The odd nutter he may have well have been, but his paranoia was fueled by a dialogue which if not overtly xenophobic, certainly dog whistles it very well.

At the end of the day, most decision making in an election is emotional. You wouldn't run 'scare campaigns' if they didn't work at shifting votes.

If you wanted a real life scare campaign that backfires, this was it.

The bexiters may not like it, I certainly abhor scare tactics, but what I wrote was simply a clinical disection of what is now happening.

I've no idea what is happening 'on the ground', but the dislike/hatred of foreigners happened long before this referendum.

I didn't agree at the time, but business has used this to lower pay for the poor - and that is unforgivable.

[allanos]

FTSE, DAX and CAC40 are higher today on BRexit weakness! Posted by Naam.

I am astonished that an worldly person like yourself would fall into the trap of believing hyped up

nonsense by the media - be it the print media or CNBC.

If there is nothing newsworthy or controversial, the media will attempt to create it (and, often, falsify it).

There is an axiom in the publishing world, "if it bleeds, it leads"!

i am an investor with my fingers at the pulse of the markets most of the time, usually do not care what the media says but form my own opinion based on facts, experience and intuition.

today i used the Bloomberg comments for those who don't know my background.

I was not trying to be disrespectful, but your post indicated that you are easily swayed by headlines in the media.

I am also a trader, and, whilst taking note of what I see or hear in the media, I use a very strong "filter" before I accept their

commentary as "fact". My style of trading does not depend on what the media say.

please use reading glasses. i thought i made it quite clear that my investment decisions are not based on media comments.

You seem to have a short-term memory. I, however, continue to have excellent vision.

Your original post referenced CNBC. After my follow-up remarks, you THEN introduced a comment about your prowess as

an investor. Your original post made no such mention.

[dick dasterdly]

Some people reminds me of a friend from London i have here.

He made his money with stock options in the money market.

He pays no UK taxes, has stashed his money in Switzerland and live quite fine here in Thailand.

He hates the EU, which currently make massive pressure on the Swiss banks to identify black money accounts.

Clear that he is pro Brexit.

Not sure why? Switzerland bank accounts have largely been left alone as have all off-shore bank accounts.

left alone?

https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&as_q=swiss+banks+fines&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&lr=&cr=&as_qdr=all&as_sitesearch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&as_filetype=&as_rights=

Yes, I'm sure you're right - all Swiss and off-shore bank accounts have been thoroughly investigated .

[dick dasterdly]

Sorry, going very off-topic. Mods, please delete all the off topic comments made by myself and the replies.

Edit - OK, no mods on the forum currently, so posters - sorry for going so far off topic .

Edited June 20, 2016 by dick dasterdly

[homeseeker]

Can someone please enlighten me:

I am getting the impression that there is a significant majority in the UK who will vote "leave".

But every major bookmaker gives "odds on" the vote will be to "remain"

See for example:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

So which is correct, my impression or the oddsmakers?!

[Naam]

i refuse to exchange views with people who claim Swiss banks were "left alone"

[SheungWan]

Can someone please enlighten me:

I am getting the impression that there is a significant majority in the UK who will vote "leave".

But every major bookmaker gives "odds on" the vote will be to "remain"

See for example:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

So which is correct, my impression or the oddsmakers?!

Obviously your impressions.

[dick dasterdly]

Can someone please enlighten me:

I am getting the impression that there is a significant majority in the UK who will vote "leave".

But every major bookmaker gives "odds on" the vote will be to "remain"

See for example:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

So which is correct, my impression or the oddsmakers?!

My guess would be the bookies.

[Naam]

Bloomberg excerpts;

Global equities rallied and the pound strengthened the most since 2008 as polls signaled the campaign for the U.K to stay in the European Union was gaining momentum. Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped.

Global equities rallied and the pound strengthened the most since 2008 as polls signaled the campaign for the U.K to stay in the European Union was gaining momentum. Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped.

The pound strengthened against all 31 major peers, rising 2 percent versus the dollar.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged by the most since February as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced with S&P 500 futures. Sterling jumped after a poll showed the campaign for the U.K. to remain in the EU leading by three percentage points before the referendum on Thursday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-19/risk-appetite-revived-as-brexit-odds-ebb-pound-jumps-yen-falls

[allanos]

Can someone please enlighten me:

I am getting the impression that there is a significant majority in the UK who will vote "leave".

But every major bookmaker gives "odds on" the vote will be to "remain"

See for example:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

So which is correct, my impression or the oddsmakers?!

The bookmakers have set the odds according to the bets they have received, and the odds that were in place

at the time of receiving these bets.

The bookmakers make their odds so that they do not lose money, whatever the result (this includes horse-racing,

sports games, etc).

In fact, their odds only reflect the views of the punters, and not the general public at large. The general publics views

are more likely to be reflected in the various polls which have taken place.

Finally, absolutely no one knows which way the referendum will go. The media like to talk about groundswells of

support for the various sides, which largely will be comments on what the latest polling has to say.

Although the "establishment", "vested interests" and the media have combined to produce a cacophony of sound in

favour of "Remain", the final result may be diametrically opposite to that which they want.

[kiwiaussie]

FTSE futures called massively up this morning and sterling cable on a tear as risk of BREXIT reverses.

The murder of the MP will be viewed as the defining point of the campaign.

There are plenty of undecideds out there but now they are coming around to the yes side.

The optics of it are that a no vote rewards murderous bigoted little englanders and their cheer squads. Most people don't want to be one of those.

Game over, referendum lost for the brexit crew.

I believe that you may possibly be right regarding what you have said in your first sentence.

It is unfortunate, but the Remainians will use what happened to Jo Cox by a deranged psychopath in the thrall of

Nazism, and try to convince the public at large that anyone supporting Brexit falls somewhere in the same ambit.

Decent and right-minded British citizens will want to show how appalled they are by what happened, and perhaps

be swayed by the (sometimes not so subtle) Propaganda of the "in" campaign, and cast a vote accordingly.

I can see why it is tempting to view the remainders as using the death for political purposes, but the reality is they won't.

Cause the won't have to.

The story in and of itself does all the talking for them. It will be a foolish remainer who invokes it.

[allanos]

FTSE futures called massively up this morning and sterling cable on a tear as risk of BREXIT reverses.

The murder of the MP will be viewed as the defining point of the campaign.

There are plenty of undecideds out there but now they are coming around to the yes side.

The optics of it are that a no vote rewards murderous bigoted little englanders and their cheer squads. Most people don't want to be one of those.

Game over, referendum lost for the brexit crew.

I believe that you may possibly be right regarding what you have said in your first sentence.

It is unfortunate, but the Remainians will use what happened to Jo Cox by a deranged psychopath in the thrall of

Nazism, and try to convince the public at large that anyone supporting Brexit falls somewhere in the same ambit.

Decent and right-minded British citizens will want to show how appalled they are by what happened, and perhaps

be swayed by the (sometimes not so subtle) Propaganda of the "in" campaign, and cast a vote accordingly.

I can see why it is tempting to view the remainders as using the death for political purposes, but the reality is they won't.

Cause the won't have to.

The story in and of itself does all the talking for them. It will be a foolish remainer who invokes it.

I think you are not so politically astute as you would like to believe.

I think various politicians have used the sad death of the MP in their own cause, by eulogising her at every turn. Knowing them for what

they are, I believe it is largely self-serving and cynical, and they are playing to the gallery in their own interests.

[Asiantravel]

" UK Chancellor George Osborne says that UKIP and Nigel Farage’s “breaking point” poster was “disgusting and vile”, and had “echoes” of 1930s Nazi propaganda.

Yet even fellow Conservative MPs were shocked at how the Chancellor had so bluntly and shamelessly used the good name of the late Ms. Cox for political capital, just 48 hours after her death."

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/19/george-osborne-tells-leave-tone-down-rhetoric-jo-cox-compares-vile-ukip-nazis/

[SgtRock]

Bloomberg excerpts;

Global equities rallied and the pound strengthened the most since 2008 as polls signaled the campaign for the U.K to stay in the European Union was gaining momentum. Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped.

Global equities rallied and the pound strengthened the most since 2008 as polls signaled the campaign for the U.K to stay in the European Union was gaining momentum. Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped.

The pound strengthened against all 31 major peers, rising 2 percent versus the dollar.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged by the most since February as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced with S&P 500 futures. Sterling jumped after a poll showed the campaign for the U.K. to remain in the EU leading by three percentage points before the referendum on Thursday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-19/risk-appetite-revived-as-brexit-odds-ebb-pound-jumps-yen-falls

Naam

If you want an idea of the amount of ballast that it spouted in the UK press regarding the EU.

This one is for you.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/20/german-nationalism-contained-united-europe-brexit-alternative-fur-deutschland

Careful you do not splutter your coffee all over your keyboard.

[brewsterbudgen]

If the vote goes to leave will be an economic disaster can only see the UK going into an open ended recession

Sent from my GT-I9000 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Oh good, another 'scare' comment....

I've no idea either way and will have mixed feeling at either result - but I HATE the scare tactics.

scare tactics have been and are still used by both parties!

Yes both sides have used them. But only one side has resorted to xenophobic, nationalistic and borderline racist scare tactics. Let's hope they don't pay off and the electorate shows sense.

[nontabury]

The trouble with the "we have a veto on blah blah blah" is that many of the votes are on majority votes so we can be over ruled, also on major polices where there is not a majority vote it would not seem impossible for some nefarious deal to be done where the representative was bought off to give a unanimous vote,

This being an example

[kiwiaussie]

The murder of the MP will be viewed as the defining point of the campaign.

There are plenty of undecideds out there but now they are coming around to the yes side.

The optics of it are that a no vote rewards murderous bigoted little englanders and their cheer squads. Most people don't want to be one of those.

Game over, referendum lost for the brexit crew.

I believe that you may possibly be right regarding what you have said in your first sentence.

It is unfortunate, but the Remainians will use what happened to Jo Cox by a deranged psychopath in the thrall of

Nazism, and try to convince the public at large that anyone supporting Brexit falls somewhere in the same ambit.

Decent and right-minded British citizens will want to show how appalled they are by what happened, and perhaps

be swayed by the (sometimes not so subtle) Propaganda of the "in" campaign, and cast a vote accordingly.

I can see why it is tempting to view the remainders as using the death for political purposes, but the reality is they won't.

Cause the won't have to.

The story in and of itself does all the talking for them. It will be a foolish remainer who invokes it.

I think you are not so politically astute as you would like to believe.

I think various politicians have used the sad death of the MP in their own cause, by eulogising her at every turn. Knowing them for what

they are, I believe it is largely self-serving and cynical, and they are playing to the gallery in their own interests.

What were they supposed to do? Speak ill of her while the corpse is still warm?

Any time something like this happens, parliament is generally recalled.

Those who support a brexit were always going to view any eulogising as a blatant cynical attempt. But these politicians arent trying to convince you. Your vote isn't gokng to shift.

Who they are aiming for are the undecideds who could still turn the vote. To over egg it for them could backfire. Which was my point.

Don't disagree with your cynicism about political motives however. Just that in the case it would be too obvious.

20 years ago an Australian MP with depression issues was drive to suicide. It was gauling to listen to the condolence speeches, particularly from those in his own party who had played a part in his demise by exploiting his fragile mental health.

Ps. I'll gloat about my machevellian insight to you all Friday morning when we have the count.

Edited June 20, 2016 by kiwiaussie

[allanos]

If the vote goes to leave will be an economic disaster can only see the UK going into an open ended recession

Sent from my GT-I9000 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Oh good, another 'scare' comment....

I've no idea either way and will have mixed feeling at either result - but I HATE the scare tactics.

scare tactics have been and are still used by both parties!

Yes both sides have used them. But only one side has resorted to xenophobic, nationalistic and borderline racist scare tactics. Let's hope they don't pay off and the electorate shows sense.

One of the reasons that immigration became the unfettered shambles that it is today is because politicians of every stripe were scared of being branded

as bigots, racists, xenophobes, etc., chiefly by the opposing political parties.

It has turned out they have for many years been out of touch with the concerns of their electorate, thus opening the door for a party like UKIP. It is

no wonder that a degree of nationalism has taken hold.

The fact that citizens of the United Kingdom, who at heart are all decent, fair-minded people, do not want uncontrolled immigration, does not make

them racists or anything else.

[nontabury]

to all Thai resident BRexiteers... please stay away from balconies! you might lose a battle this week but the war will go on

We may loose the battle,but not the war. As I expect many of those who vote to remain in this so called Union,will soon come to regret their decision.When they find out what the unelected Bureacrats in Brussels have planned for the future.

Edited June 20, 2016 by nontabury

[allanos]

Post by kiwiaussie

Ps. I'll gloat about my machevellian insight to you all Friday morning when we have the count.

Who's the "we", Kimo Sabe? It seems you are an antipodean. The Brexit vote doesn't concern you.

Moreover, you flatter yourself if you think you have Machiavellian attributes.

Moreover, not the spelling of Machiavelli!

[billd766]

I should like to remind you that Greece "doctored" its figures when applying for entry to the European Union, and the EU turned a blind eye to it

in its single-minded (simple minded?) determination to attempt integration. It is yet one further example of political considerations riding roughshod

over common sense; its own "rule book". Talk about beware of Greeks bearing gifts!

It is common cause that the EU has an enormous problem on its hands with the present Greece situation; it is just one of the shaky foundations

underpinning the European Union currently.

The fact that the United Kingdom is heavily geared is actually of no great concern, providing it is well managed. There is enough talent in

Britain to accomplish this.

I thought most of the guys in Thailand were here because they had definitively written off all the talent in the UK......

Out of the Brits that I know here in Thailand. One of the reasons they are here is because we refuse to throw huge amounts of tax and NI contributions into a system that feeds the bloated beast that is the EU.

It is not really a hard concept. Work to look after your own. Or work to feed a monster that continually needs vast amounts of money.

So you're a tax evader, cool, the UK needs more of those! It might have been better to simply say your reason for being here is sex, that's more acceptable these days.

I am here and have been on and off for 23 years. I started paying income tax as a 15 year old in 1959. Now I have retired and 7 years after my retirement I am STILL paying income tax due to my forethought in getting 2 extra pensions as well as the state pension.

I also get less of a state pension after paying in for 44 years than a lot of people who only paid in for 30 or 36 years.

Do you think that is fair and reasonable?

[nontabury]

Brexit fools paradise - I think they are expecting to be greeted by a host of young, Essex virgins on the other side....

"Suggestions by British politicians favoring a departure that the rest of the European Union will give Britain more favorable terms in a new trading arrangement will be rejected out of hand by European leaders, who do not want to make further concessions to a country that has rejected them, officials said. This would ensure that the British example discouraged others tempted to seek a special deal for themselves." - guardian

Wow! That really is a new low, and I speak as a female who was brought up in Essex.

So a female called Dick,obviously with a sense of humor?.

[brewsterbudgen]

If the vote goes to leave will be an economic disaster can only see the UK going into an open ended recession

Sent from my GT-I9000 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Oh good, another 'scare' comment....

I've no idea either way and will have mixed feeling at either result - but I HATE the scare tactics.

scare tactics have been and are still used by both parties!

Yes both sides have used them. But only one side has resorted to xenophobic, nationalistic and borderline racist scare tactics. Let's hope they don't pay off and the electorate shows sense.

One of the reasons that immigration became the unfettered shambles that it is today is because politicians of every stripe were scared of being branded

as bigots, racists, xenophobes, etc., chiefly by the opposing political parties.

It has turned out they have for many years been out of touch with the concerns of their electorate, thus opening the door for a party like UKIP. It is

no wonder that a degree of nationalism has taken hold.

The fact that citizens of the United Kingdom, who at heart are all decent, fair-minded people, do not want uncontrolled immigration, does not make

them racists or anything else.

Immigration is not "uncontrolled". Try bringing your Thai wife to the UK!

[slipperylobster]

Post by kiwiaussie

Ps. I'll gloat about my machevellian insight to you all Friday morning when we have the count.

Who's the "we", Kimo Sabe? It seems you are an antipodean. The Brexit vote doesn't concern you.

Moreover, you flatter yourself if you think you have Machiavellian attributes.

Moreover, not the spelling of Machiavelli!

...and that is not the spelling of Kemo Sabe !

Obama wants you guys over there to settle down, gaddamitt.

Edited June 20, 2016 by slipperylobster

[kiwiaussie]

Post by kiwiaussie

Ps. I'll gloat about my machevellian insight to you all Friday morning when we have the count.

Who's the "we", Kimo Sabe? It seems you are an antipodean. The Brexit vote doesn't concern you.

Moreover, you flatter yourself if you think you have Machiavellian attributes.

Moreover, not the spelling of Machiavelli!

Oh, the spell checker has arrived! You must really be getting desperate if you a resorting to pointing out these things.

You can bar down. 'We' was just figure of speech - meaning when 'we' as in 'the world' beyond your little Brexit echo chamber 'have the count' in....

But most normal people would have picked that one.

As for my punditry skills - seems you have no sense of humour and you are taking this all rather seriously. Should I have put a smiley face or a winky face after it just so it was easier for you to understand that I'm not taking myself too seriously? Okay, here we go .

I mean, for fecks sake, taking seriously debating on TV....

Feel free to add the spell check, kemosabe...

Edited June 20, 2016 by kiwiaussie

[kiwiaussie]

Oh, and one for the road. What your next PM REALLY thinks about Turkey joining the EU.

[nontabury]

FTSE futures called massively up this morning and sterling cable on a tear as risk of BREXIT reverses.

The murder of the MP will be viewed as the defining point of the campaign.

There are plenty of undecideds out there but now they are coming around to the yes side.

The optics of it are that a no vote rewards murderous bigoted little englanders and their cheer squads. Most people don't want to be one of those.

Game over, referendum lost for the brexit crew.

You ain't a Brit are you...?

Does it matter?

Where does it say one must be a Brit to understand politics?

You don't have to be a Brit to understand politics, however to understand British politics you do.

There are a number of none Brits following this thread, and it's fair to say that the majority of them do recommend remaining in this undemocratic so called Union. While most Brits do favour our speedy withdrawal.

[nontabury]

I liked this, a comment in the event of Brexit:

"it's not very often you get to watch a country commit suicide, a true pied piper moment, then we can revert to being a flag waving, morris dancing little island and exchange fish and chip recipes with each other - we didn't get subsumed, we showed 'em!"

And yet another scare comment . Argue your opinions, not stupid comments!

........ or page after page after page of stupid cartoons and right wing propaganda slogans and pictures!!!

I'm not sure if you're more afraid of the message,or of the messenger. What I am certain,is you're inability to answer questions head on.

[allanos]

Post by kiwiaussie

Ps. I'll gloat about my machevellian insight to you all Friday morning when we have the count.

Who's the "we", Kimo Sabe? It seems you are an antipodean. The Brexit vote doesn't concern you.

Moreover, you flatter yourself if you think you have Machiavellian attributes.

Moreover, not the spelling of Machiavelli!

...and that is not the spelling of Kemo Sabe !

Obama wants you guys over there to settle down, gaddamitt.

Thanks for your input, Cowboy.

There is no correct spelling for Kimo Sabe (Kemo Sabe, Kemoh Sabeeh) because Native Americans did not have a written language,

so a phonetic spelling is absolutely in order.

Please thank POTUS for his conern.

[kiwiaussie]

You ain't a Brit are you...?

Does it matter?

Where does it say one must be a Brit to understand politics?

You don't have to be a Brit to understand politics, however to understand British politics you do.

There are a number of none Brits following this thread, and it's fair to say that the majority of them do recommend remaining in this undemocratic so called Union. While most Brits do favour our speedy withdrawal.

You are sounding a bit like the Yanks, who like to insist that outsiders have no place debating their politics. Rather small minded, no?

Friday morning BKK time, when the count is in, we'll find out who are 'most Brits' I guess.

I've not given a view on the pro's and the con's of the debate, and there are strong (non hyperbolic) arguments on both sides. I've just given my reading of the last few days of the poltics of it all.

I fear however, you'll be in the minority, come Friday morning.