Baht to Weaken to 37 to the US Dollar

[Berkshire]

....according to KBank forecast. SCB concurs.

https://ethailand.com/business-news/baht-weaken-37-us-dollar-according-kbank-forecast/2896/

I could live with that.

[lannarebirth]

Maybe the forecast is right, and the Baht IS showing some reluctance to strengthen further here in the low 35's. That said, one could make a lot of money in short term trading taking the opposite side of the baht forecasts that show up here periodically.

[DogNo1]

Yes, if you're into speculating. I've lost a lot of money speculating!

[CaptHaddock]

That forecast is based in the Fed's raising US short-term interest rates which they have been trying to do for the past five years without success because the economy is growing too slowly. Ever since the financial crisis in 2008 the Fed has been predicting accelerating growth while the bond market has been predicting low growth and low rates. So, far the bond market has been correct. Yellin recently announced a slowdown in the Fed's expectation of further rate increases due to the weaker job market recently.

So, I wouldn't get my hopes up for 37 baht to the dollar just yet.

Edited June 18, 2016 by CaptHaddock

[Asiantravel]

DoubleLine's Gundlach: 'Rate-hike cycle has left the building'

Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer at DoubleLine Capital, said on Wednesday that Federal Reserve officials are no longer trying to prepare the markets for rate hikes because they are no longer certain they are going to raise them.

"The 'rate hike cycle' has left the building," Gundlach said in a telephone interview after Wednesday's decision by Fed policymakers to leave rates unchanged.

"What I think is that the Fed doesn't believe their own 'dot plot' anymore," said Gundlach, who oversees $100 billion at Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-gundlach-idUSKCN0Z12FK

[lannarebirth]

USD:THB closes the week below Daily and Weekly support, both of which have weakened. "Possible" change in trend underway.

[elgordo38]

USD:THB closes the week below Daily and Weekly support, both of which have weakened. "Possible" change in trend underway.

All I can see is the baht getting stronger it broke the 35 level on the downside today getting stronger. It must be the fact that the hot money is again piling into the SET. The SET has been up every day for the past weeks. Edited July 15, 2016 by elgordo38

[lannarebirth]

USD:THB closes the week below Daily and Weekly support, both of which have weakened. "Possible" change in trend underway.

All I can see is the baht getting stronger it broke the 35 level on the downside today getting stronger. It must be the fact that the hot money is again piling into the SET. The SET has been up every day for the past weeks.

The trend has been sideways. I don't see that lasting much longer.

[IMA_FARANG]

That forecast is based in the Fed's raising US short-term interest rates which they have been trying to do for the past five years without success because the economy is growing too slowly. Ever since the financial crisis in 2008 the Fed has been predicting accelerating growth while the bond market has been predicting low growth and low rates. So, far the bond market has been correct. Yellin recently announced a slowdown in the Fed's expectation of further rate increases due to the weaker job market recently.

So, I wouldn't get my hopes up for 37 baht to the dollar just yet.

-------------------------------------

The U.S. economy is NOT growing to slowly.

The talking down of the U.S. economy and consequently the U.S. dollar is due to so-called "experts" who are trying to use the talk to make themselves a profit on deliberately shorting the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy.

Is it a coincidence that the term "Bond Trader" sounds so much like the words "Bond Traitor"?

I don't think so.

The only good Capitalist is a dead Capitalist.

Capitalism is a form of financial slavery that allows the wealthy to keep the majority in economic chains while the wealthy profit from the misery of others.

All over the world the lie of the "virtues" of profit at any cost Capitalism is slowly killing the world with it's own garbage.

And Thailand is an example of that.

Thailand....the Creeping Cancer of Corporate Capitalism.

[elgordo38]

That forecast is based in the Fed's raising US short-term interest rates which they have been trying to do for the past five years without success because the economy is growing too slowly. Ever since the financial crisis in 2008 the Fed has been predicting accelerating growth while the bond market has been predicting low growth and low rates. So, far the bond market has been correct. Yellin recently announced a slowdown in the Fed's expectation of further rate increases due to the weaker job market recently.

So, I wouldn't get my hopes up for 37 baht to the dollar just yet.

-------------------------------------

The U.S. economy is NOT growing to slowly.

The talking down of the U.S. economy and consequently the U.S. dollar is due to so-called "experts" who are trying to use the talk to make themselves a profit on deliberately shorting the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy.

Is it a coincidence that the term "Bond Trader" sounds so much like the words "Bond Traitor"?

I don't think so.

The only good Capitalist is a dead Capitalist.

Capitalism is a form of financial slavery that allows the wealthy to keep the majority in economic chains while the wealthy profit from the misery of others.

All over the world the lie of the "virtues" of profit at any cost Capitalism is slowly killing the world with it's own garbage.

And Thailand is an example of that.

Thailand....the Creeping Cancer of Corporate Capitalism.

What is that old " The truth shall set up free" well not in this case the truth is no longer the truth but truth has now become a boastful platform for the rich to rub it into us common folk how well off they are. I gave you one like sorry that is all I am allowed. Sadly I think that you and I are alone in understanding the raping of the world by the rich.

[Mark123456]

Learn to trade and you can join in the raping!

[Hornyskunk]

I don't think anyone expects a policy change from the next FOMC meeting later this month. Same could be said for the meeting in September, but that's still a while from now.

In the meantime, USD to THB is actually trending down. This is despite the Brexit giving a small boost to the dollar.

It does look the SET is (or was) pulling in hot money, but I don't know much about Thailand's economy or history of capital flows.

Personally, I'm interested to find out whatever effect the constitutional referendum in August will have on the exchange rate.

If there is political instability in Thailand, then yes, I think 37 baht per dollar is possible.

[impulse]

Learn to trade and you can join in the raping!

Right up until you become one of the millions of victims of their rigged markets. Bring your Vaseline to the party. You may need it.

Edit: Several years back, I spent a weekend at the New Jersey lake house of a kid I grew up with. He was my GF's kid brother and we often took him out of the stifling house they both grew up in. I hadn't seen him in years, and went back to catch up with his sister and parents during a business trip to the area. He went on to own a brokerage house in Manhattan- I have no clue how big it was. That weekend, he warned me off any speculation. His comment was, "If your profits come from betting on one side or the other, we'll eventually clean you out. You may win some if you accidentally bet right, but if you do it enough, we'll eventually get all your money. It's criminal how much of an advantage we have against the little guys. (his words) If your profits come from actual growth in a company or a market, you may stand a chance, but even that comes with risks of shady dealings".

Edited July 18, 2016 by impulse

[Naam]

The U.S. economy is NOT growing to slowly.

The talking down of the U.S. economy and consequently the U.S. dollar is due to so-called "experts" who are trying to use the talk to make themselves a profit on deliberately shorting the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy.

Is it a coincidence that the term "Bond Trader" sounds so much like the words "Bond Traitor"?

I don't think so.

The only good Capitalist is a dead Capitalist.

Capitalism is a form of financial slavery that allows the wealthy to keep the majority in economic chains while the wealthy profit from the misery of others.

All over the world the lie of the "virtues" of profit at any cost Capitalism is slowly killing the world with it's own garbage.

And Thailand is an example of that.

Thailand....the Creeping Cancer of Corporate Capitalism.

What is that old " The truth shall set up free" well not in this case the truth is no longer the truth but truth has now become a boastful platform for the rich to rub it into us common folk how well off they are. I gave you one like sorry that is all I am allowed. Sadly I think that you and I are alone in understanding the raping of the world by the rich.

thanks for both enlightening comments concerning the topic "Baht/Dollar to weaken to 37". now i can position myself.

[Mark123456]

Learn to trade and you can join in the raping!

Right up until you become one of the millions of victims of their rigged markets. Bring your Vaseline to the party. You may need it.

Edit: Several years back, I spent a weekend at the New Jersey lake house of a kid I grew up with. He was my GF's kid brother and we often took him out of the stifling house they both grew up in. I hadn't seen him in years, and went back to catch up with his sister and parents during a business trip to the area. He went on to own a brokerage house in Manhattan- I have no clue how big it was. That weekend, he warned me off any speculation. His comment was, "If your profits come from betting on one side or the other, we'll eventually clean you out. You may win some if you accidentally bet right, but if you do it enough, we'll eventually get all your money. It's criminal how much of an advantage we have against the little guys. (his words) If your profits come from actual growth in a company or a market, you may stand a chance, but even that comes with risks of shady dealings".

I don't get involved with stocks and shares, only foreign exchange. If you're not over leveraged and you're not greedy, you can make money.

[steelepulse]

Looks like after some news over the weekend the baht is weakening.

[elgordo38]

8 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

Looks like after some news over the weekend the baht is weakening.

Yes it has. I found the news saddening but fundamentals should move currencies and stock markets. Sadly the markets and currencies are all moving to the tune of non fundamental news only greed. Just be careful where you place your bets. It will be a long time before Wells Fargo becomes a widows and orphans or Warren Buffett favorite again. The US government is also eyeing big companies like Facebook and Apple that have used Ireland as their "headquarters" to get almost a zero tax rate. Uncle Sam wants his fair share and will not stand for someone else creaming it off. The EU tax people are eyeing this pie as well. We live in a world of bankrupt countries that are thrashing around look for every satang they can glom.

 

Edited October 11, 2016 by elgordo38

[YeahSiam]

What amazes me is how investors still hang on the Fed's every word when all we're talking about is a 25 basis point increase. I wouldn't mind but they've been threatening to raise them all year and, during the run up to every meeting, there's this huge anticipation. Then......nothing.

 

Interest rates are used to cool off an economy that is either currently or potentially overheating. None of the data coming out of the US suggests that its economy is anywhere near overheating. The economy is nearing the end of the cycle; it's due a recession and it's coming.

 

I'm not a gold bug by any stretch but I am buying as much as I can afford at the current prices because, IMO, it's cheap. I'm also maintaining my exposure to emerging market equities because I think the "imminent" Fed rate hike is already reflected in current valuations.

 

A lot can change between now and December and I suspect we'll receive more confirmation that the US economy is in the shitter before then.