Thailand bombings: A look at who may have been responsible

[weecree]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

correct, terrorists want to claim responsibility otherwise what would be the point and this would include those in the deep south

 

Whoever did this doesn't want to be associated with it but wants the effect - sounds more like someone with an axe to grind rather than someone with a specific cause.

 

As for the expertise to build such devices - although there is a degree of complexity with such a device using a mobile to detonate it is not terribly difficult.

 

If they are planning another attack, why would they? right now people are incredibly confused and resources will be stretched trying to establish a motive. This means intelligence will be off chasing every lead. If you tell the people who you are (and you operate within a narrow band of the country) then that intelligence can be focused and has greater potential to disrupt your campaign. If instead you have the government chasing phantasms then you have more chance of committing another coordinated attack. 

Edited August 14, 2016 by weecree

[elgordo38]

3 hours ago, Winniedapu said:

 

I think it was an internecine message intended for Prayuth's regimental associations. It's the only way I can see that accounts for the timing (MOther's Day), and the odd location (Hua Hin) as well as bombs in the South.

 

But I doubt anyone outside of the planning and execution circles really knows. And the police certainly have no clue at all.

 

Winnie

I concur with your last sentence. I am sure they have a long list of "vetted culprits" than can be trotted out at a moments notice for all and sundry to see. All that is left is to find a business "sponsor" that wishes to donate "advertising" no sorry reward money. Action, camera a big hand for the BIB heroes involved and life goes on. 

[Tatsujin]

RTP vs Military

[Kru Baa]

How much reward money will there be this time for the police to reward themselves I wonder.

[bobmac10]

2 hours ago, brucegoniners said:

It's Thaksin's people. Plain and simple.

Well if anyone knows, it would undoubtedly be you Bruce, with all your informants and inside knowledge.

 

[hansnl]

4 hours ago, Shawn0000 said:

 

"Certainly the military  are capable of killing innocents ...

But this hurts their interests ....

unless its about more Witch hunts of reds?"

 

i am am not suggesting that it was the military, but if it was then this would not hurt their interests, militaries always want to justify getting bigger and requiring a larger budget, also this army happens to be ruling the country in order to keep the peace, the longer there is not peace the longer they are justified to remain in power, these attacks are only good for the army.

Of course these bombings are not, repeat, not good for the army.

The junta, if you like.

The rulers want peace, if only to show the population they are good administrators, and the armed forces are a good thing.

Bombings might make the population think they are not good for the country.

Whatever your ideas about the takeover, unrest is not good.

Don't think the government as it is now is composed of idiots.

They are not!

 

[Winniedapu]

3 hours ago, brucegoniners said:

It's Thaksin's people. Plain and simple.

 

Well that was easy. You've told the RTP the good news of course, how did they react?

 

I know how I reacted...

 

Winnie

[halloween]

4 hours ago, futsukayoi said:

 

Agree with you totally.  In addition the reason Janes think it cannot be the Red Shirts is that thousands of their supporters have already been rounded up and many others are being monitored very closely.

" thousands of their supporters have already been rounded up" Sounds more like Rawhide than Thailand. So what happened to these "thousands"? Are they being kept in secret prisons and army bases, or were they executed? Nobody seems to have missed them.

How many watchers does it take to monitor (allegedly) most of Isaan?

[Rorri]

Shouldn't be too hard to track the terrorists, after all, only a few months ago all SIM cards had to be registered, for this very reason.. oh wait, is it possible they didn't think all situations out... bummer. 

[Shawn0000]

1 hour ago, hansnl said:

Of course these bombings are not, repeat, not good for the army.

The junta, if you like.

The rulers want peace, if only to show the population they are good administrators, and the armed forces are a good thing.

Bombings might make the population think they are not good for the country.

Whatever your ideas about the takeover, unrest is not good.

Don't think the government as it is now is composed of idiots.

They are not!

 

 

You neglect to consider that no matter whether the public consider them to be good at protecting the country from attack or not, they also have to accept the fact that they are the best they have, and so attack is only a positive for the army as it does justifiy their existence even if it may make them appear inept.  I have no idea where you get this idea that the army have something to gain from appearing as good administrators, they don't, they have something to gain from staying in power and receiving a larger budget, and peace will not bring either of those things.  I am not suggesting that the army don't want peace, just that peace is not in their best interest.

[Shawn0000]

8 minutes ago, halloween said:

" thousands of their supporters have already been rounded up" Sounds more like Rawhide than Thailand. So what happened to these "thousands"? Are they being kept in secret prisons and army bases, or were they executed? Nobody seems to have missed them.

How many watchers does it take to monitor (allegedly) most of Isaan?

 

https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/8000/asa390112014en.pdf

 

 

[Baerboxer]

4 hours ago, smutcakes said:

 

No one claimed responsibility for the Erawan attack either, I bet there you were finger pointing at political parties then as well. 

 

He's just as entitled to speculate, just as you are and do often enough.

 

Now, is there a history of any particular group going for small disruptive explosions. usually after similar events? Or perhaps separatists changing their time honored practice of keeping to their own 3 provinces and deciding to up the ante? 

 

Certainly doesn't appear to be ISIS or similar as no one has claimed it and they favor maximum damage and suicide "martyrs". So who would gain the most from disrupting the economy. and showing that the current government don't have security locked down - not that any government can these days?

 

 

[halloween]

3 minutes ago, Shawn0000 said:

 

https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/8000/asa390112014en.pdf

 

 

 

So which part of that extensive report should I peruse to find "thousands rounded up" and therefore incapable of setting of bombs?

[Shawn0000]

6 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

He's just as entitled to speculate, just as you are and do often enough.

 

Now, is there a history of any particular group going for small disruptive explosions. usually after similar events? Or perhaps separatists changing their time honored practice of keeping to their own 3 provinces and deciding to up the ante? 

 

Certainly doesn't appear to be ISIS or similar as no one has claimed it and they favor maximum damage and suicide "martyrs". So who would gain the most from disrupting the economy. and showing that the current government don't have security locked down - not that any government can these days?

 

 

 

It was only 10 years ago that the separatists bombed Bangkok and Chiang Mai, hardly what I would call a "time honoured practice".

[halloween]

2 minutes ago, Shawn0000 said:

 

It was only 10 years ago that the separatists bombed Bangkok and Chiang Mai, hardly what I would call a "time honoured practice".

Well I remember bombs and grenades going off amid calls for a separate Lanna state much more recently.

[EyesWideOpen]

Well, it is said that the past is the best predictor of the future,

so clearly the bombings were the work of Pattani separatists..

Who have set off all the other endless bombs in south Thailand.

In this case they simply moved a bit further north...  I cannot figure

out the agenda for the current government in saying they have

no idea who is behind these bombings....Tough call I guess, as if

they say it was international terrorists, that looks bad. If they say

it was local terrorists, that looks bad too, because of the appearance

of loss of control of the southern  problem. Decisions decisions...

I have always wondered why the Pattani separatists have not sent 

a letter to the government with a list of demands. And if those 

demands were not met, just start setting off bombs in Bangkok.

Tourism would evaporate overnight.....

[halloween]

2 minutes ago, Shawn0000 said:

 

It was only 10 years ago that the separatists bombed Bangkok and Chiang Mai, hardly what I would call a "time honoured practice".

Well I remember bombs and grenades going off amid calls for a separate Lanna state much more recently.

[EyesWideOpen]

Well, it is said that the past is the best predictor of the future,

so clearly the bombings were the work of Pattani separatists..

Who have set off all the other endless bombs in south Thailand.

In this case they simply moved a bit further north...  I cannot figure

out the agenda for the current government in saying they have

no idea who is behind these bombings....Tough call I guess, as if

they say it was international terrorists, that looks bad. If they say

it was local terrorists, that looks bad too, because of the appearance

of loss of control of the southern  problem. Decisions decisions...

I have always wondered why the Pattani separatists have not sent 

a letter to the government with a list of demands. And if those 

demands were not met, just start setting off bombs in Bangkok.

Tourism would evaporate overnight.....

[DM07]

I have no idea, who it was, but a good idea, who it will be blamed on!

[Shawn0000]

6 minutes ago, halloween said:

 

So which part of that extensive report should I peruse to find "thousands rounded up" and therefore incapable of setting of bombs?

 

At the time it was written it was about 800, it answers one of your questions, where are they held, which is on military bases.  I have no idea why you think no one missed them, especially considering the press attention some of their family members received, perhaps you don't really follow the news and just make assumptions based on what you don't know about.  As for your final comment, I don't think anyone thinks that half of Isaan are extremists just because they once chose a party that has an extremist element amongst its membership, perhaps you also think the same of the voters of the other party who also clearly had a murderous extremist element amongst their supporters?

[Eric Loh]

5 hours ago, brucegoniners said:

It's Thaksin's people. Plain and simple.

 

PDRC. The southern folks have bomb knowledge, know the terrain and speak and can move freely among locals. It is an assignment to help fellow RTA the reason to stay in power. Plain, simple and obvious. 

[halloween]

16 minutes ago, Shawn0000 said:

 

At the time it was written it was about 800, it answers one of your questions, where are they held, which is on military bases.  I have no idea why you think no one missed them, especially considering the press attention some of their family members received, perhaps you don't really follow the news and just make assumptions based on what you don't know about.  As for your final comment, I don't think anyone thinks that half of Isaan are extremists just because they once chose a party that has an extremist element amongst its membership, perhaps you also think the same of the voters of the other party who also clearly had a murderous extremist element amongst their supporters?

I was replying to the statement " Janes think it cannot be the Red Shirts is that thousands of their supporters have already been rounded up and many others are being monitored very closely. "

 

If you have any proof that thousands of red supporters are incarcerated NOW and that every red supporter in Isaan is being closely monitored,  thus rendering the reds incapable of mounting the latest bombing, I would be glad to hear it. Because to me that sounds like BS, and that is why I quoted it.

BTW without making assumptions, or illogical thought, or presenting reports completely irrelevant to the current situation.

 

 

[Shawn0000]

2 minutes ago, halloween said:

I was replying to the statement " Janes think it cannot be the Red Shirts is that thousands of their supporters have already been rounded up and many others are being monitored very closely. "

 

If you have any proof that thousands of red supporters are incarcerated NOW and that every red supporter in Isaan is being closely monitored,  thus rendering the reds incapable of mounting the latest bombing, I would be glad to hear it. Because to me that sounds like BS, and that is why I quoted it.

BTW without making assumptions, or illogical thought, or presenting reports completely irrelevant to the current situation.

 

 

 

Of course their claim is not true, regardless of whether they have locked up 800 or thousands, there may well be some extremists out there, but neither is your assumption that any Red supporter is a potential terrorist, that is pure lunacy as I attempted to point out to you in my last reply, but obviously that didn't sink in as you have made the exact same assumption again.  Obviously every supporter of a political party would not have to be watched, only those who would do such a thing, which is a tiny minority.  And you might note that the other party also condemned the constitution and also have a minority of murderous followers, very few of which have been taken for adjustment, could it be the Yellows?  Lol.

[halloween]

13 minutes ago, Shawn0000 said:

 

Of course their claim is not true, regardless of whether they have locked up 800 or thousands, there may well be some extremists out there, but neither is your assumption that any Red supporter is a potential terrorist, that is pure lunacy as I attempted to point out to you in my last reply, but obviously that didn't sink in as you have made the exact same assumption again.  Obviously every supporter of a political party would not have to be watched, only those who would do such a thing, which is a tiny minority.  And you might note that the other party also condemned the constitution and also have a minority of murderous followers, very few of which have been taken for adjustment, could it be the Yellows?  Lol.

I made no such assumption. Your belief that I did is a result of your assumption that you can tell which supporter is prone to radical action if you don't monitor them. You should explain your methodology to the world's police forces so that they pick which muslim will be the next to go apeshit. 

You are also incorrect that the Democrats condemned the constitution. Abhisit did so on a personal basis.

BTW my g/f's family live in the far NE and are (light) red supporters. Why you assume that I would think these very nice people are potential bomb-chuckers is beyond me.

 

Edited August 14, 2016 by halloween

[Shawn0000]

38 minutes ago, halloween said:

I made no such assumption. Your belief that I did is a result of your assumption that you can tell which supporter is prone to radical action if you don't monitor them. You should explain your methodology to the world's police forces so that they pick which muslim will be the next to go apeshit. 

You are also incorrect that the Democrats condemned the constitution. Abhisit did so on a personal basis.

BTW my g/f's family live in the far NE and are (light) red supporters. Why you assume that I would think these very nice people are potential bomb-chuckers is beyond me.

 

 

You said that every red supporter would have to be closely monitored to make the reds incapable of an attack, those are your words, that is not true as you now agree, only reds who are themselves willing to launch an attack would need to be monitored, how that could be achieved is a different matter entirely, but the police worldwide do have methods, they use these to counter countless Islamic attacks without the need to monitor each and every Muslim.  You flip flop between all reds being potential terrorists and your own family being red but not terrorists seemingly without understanding the implication of your own choice of words.

[atyclb]

the military has moved in on territories turfs that have historically been controlled by police. massage businesses just as one example and not limited to tourist areas but thai only suburban places. police are hurting as the gravy train is dissipating. discrediting and clearing military control would return previous benefits to police.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

8 hours ago, smedly said:

correct, terrorists want to claim responsibility otherwise what would be the point and this would include those in the deep south

 

Whoever did this doesn't want to be associated with it but wants the effect - sounds more like someone with an axe to grind rather than someone with a specific cause.

 

As for the expertise to build such devices - although there is a degree of complexity with such a device using a mobile to detonate it is not terribly difficult.

In the south the terrorists never claim responsibility. You will never ever see this here. its not like the ISIS. They know that the government know who have done this. This was a message to the government. They did not go for major big bombs like they use in the south, due to logistics and also they didn't want to kill many people. The message was we can hit you anywhere we want to and we don't accept your authority over us. In an interview with AFP IHS Jane's analyst in BKK said that only the southern terrorist has the ability to have conducted these crimes. But the loss of face will deter the junta from ever acknowledging the fact that there was a breach in military intel that allowed these attacks to take place. During the unrest in 2013 most intel officers was withdrawn from the south and put into service in BKK. At that stage already analysts warned that the terrorist would use the gap in intel to strengthen their operations in the south and to expand it outside of their traditional operational areas. They were proven correct with an undetonated car bomb that was found in Phuket, the Samui bomb and now these wide front attack.

[halloween]

34 minutes ago, Shawn0000 said:

 

You said that every red supporter would have to be closely monitored to make the reds incapable of an attack, those are your words, that is not true as you now agree, only reds who are themselves willing to launch an attack would need to be monitored, how that could be achieved is a different matter entirely, but the police worldwide do have methods, they use these to counter countless Islamic attacks without the need to monitor each and every Muslim.  You flip flop between all reds being potential terrorists and your own family being red but not terrorists seemingly without understanding the implication of your own choice of words.

Suit yourself. I'm not willing to continue arguing over your pedantic nit-picking and false assumptions about a word quoted from a statement  that we both agree was BS.

Edited August 14, 2016 by halloween

[smutcakes]

5 minutes ago, halloween said:

Suit yourself. I'm not willing to continue arguing over your pedantic nit-picking and false assumptions about a word quoted from a statement  that we both agree was BS.

 

Dummy Spat 

[oyster]

On Friday I posted....

"attacks to be coordinated."      Now that to me suggests strategic planning, not really Thai style with all due respect - unless someone has been doing some training... ...  bit too reminiscent of the French attacks..... that were not Isis.........so who would put pressure on the Thai government.?

 

And now this appears..... 

http://journal-neo.org/2016/08/14/thailand-gets-the-libya-syria-treatment/

 

As RT says  Question more.........