Khun Han Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 29 minutes ago, Xircal said: The problem at the moment is nobody knows what kind of deal Britain will get. Donald Tusk who will preside over all the Brexit negotiations has already stated that Britain is either in or out meaning that unless its prepared to accept free movement of people, it will mean the latter: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hard-brexit-no-latest-soft-eu-referendum-donald-tusk-theresa-may-britain-a7360406.html Now if you consider that the EU is a market 1½ times bigger than the US it's not difficult to envisage that if Britain refuses the accept the terms the EU will be offering which includes the above mentioned point then it's going to mean a complete divorce. If that's the way it ends up then being excluded from a market of 500 million consumers won't fare wel with investors since exports will be subject to punitive tariffs and mountains of red tape. You mentioned GSK, but that's already a British company so it's logical to assume that they'll continue to invest in their own organisation. But how they'll fare when exports to the EU are subject to 10% import duty which will hit profits is difficult to say at the moment. Same goes for everyone else. Donald Tusk is hardly going to say "Make a list of what you want, and we'll do our best to help." Leading up to this major negotiation, is he? GSK is a British-based multinational which talked about reducing it's investments in the UK pre-referendum, and is now upping it's investments instead, along with many other major businesses. Keep coming up with excuses as to why each of these companies are doing this, it doesn't matter, and the excuses start to get contradictory. The fact is, they're doing it, and the economy is only going to improve as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockingrobin Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, Khun Han said: Donald Tusk is hardly going to say "Make a list of what you want, and we'll do our best to help." Leading up to this major negotiation, is he? GSK is a British-based multinational which talked about reducing it's investments in the UK pre-referendum, and is now upping it's investments instead, along with many other major businesses. Keep coming up with excuses as to why each of these companies are doing this, it doesn't matter, and the excuses start to get contradictory. The fact is, they're doing it, and the economy is only going to improve as a result. http://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/news/gsk-and-astrazeneca-chiefs-brought-into-ministerial-brexit-working-group/20201416.article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SgtRock Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 8 minutes ago, Khun Han said: Donald Tusk is hardly going to say "Make a list of what you want, and we'll do our best to help." Leading up to this major negotiation, is he? GSK is a British-based multinational which talked about reducing it's investments in the UK pre-referendum, and is now upping it's investments instead, along with many other major businesses. Keep coming up with excuses as to why each of these companies are doing this, it doesn't matter, and the excuses start to get contradictory. The fact is, they're doing it, and the economy is only going to improve as a result. Like this guy 2 days ago after a personal meeting with Theresa May. Quote The boss of Japanese car giant Nissan says he is "confident" the government will keep the UK a competitive place to do business after it leaves the EU. "Following our productive meeting, I am confident the government will continue to ensure the UK remains a competitive place to do business. I look forward to continued positive collaboration between Nissan and the UK Government." http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-37656480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, SgtRock said: Like this guy 2 days ago after a personal meeting with Theresa May. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-37656480 Do us the courtesy of reading the preceding posts. We've debated this at length and I'm not going to provide a précis just for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 1 hour ago, Khun Han said: It's a blog by "Buttonwood", an ardent remainer. Didn't you notice? Buttonwood's Notebook is a COLUMN in The Economist. It's named after the Buttonwood Agreement signed under the eponymous tree, which I'm sure I don't need to explain. So Buttonwood is a type of tree not a person per se. A Buttonwood LOG may be more appropriate than BLOG? Anyway, quiet enough nonsense now; time for the pub. Bye bye, everybody. Bye bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SgtRock Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 21 minutes ago, Grouse said: Do us the courtesy of reading the preceding posts. We've debated this at length and I'm not going to provide a précis just for you... The proceeding posts were written before this article was promulgated. In fact some of the supporting evidence provided was from September, way before 14 Oct. Do not flatter yourself, you do not have to provide anything for me, nor was it asked for. Now kindly stop stalking me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 10 minutes ago, SgtRock said: The proceeding posts were written before this article was promulgated. In fact some of the supporting evidence provided was from September, way before 14 Oct. Do not flatter yourself, you do not have to provide anything for me, nor was it asked for. Now kindly stop stalking me. Believe me I don't stalk you, I avoid you ?. Maybe you're confusing me with my alter ego or my doppelgänger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khun Han Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 1 hour ago, rockingrobin said: http://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/news/gsk-and-astrazeneca-chiefs-brought-into-ministerial-brexit-working-group/20201416.article Both Pascal Soriot and Sir Andrew Witty were pro-remain. Isn't it great they are now helping the UK going forward AND putting their (companies') money where their mouth is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nontabury Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 6 hours ago, chiang mai said: Oh dear oh dear oh dear, whatever are we to do with you NB! Indeed Barclays did say: "Barclays believe Pound Sterling undervalued at current levels and they projected it to move higher against the Euro over coming months". Sadly they said that on 22 August, just before Sterling fell another12%. Oops! https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5334-gbp-to-eur-conversion-forecast-barc-343 I do not know if they said that in August,however I do know they said it this October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 Just now, nontabury said: I do not know if they said that in August,however I do know they said it this October. Gives us confidence that what you say is accurate and post a reliable link to confirm, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 8 minutes ago, nontabury said: I do not know if they said that in August,however I do know they said it this October. I went to news.google.com and the only record they have of such a statement dates from aug 19, 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nontabury Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 7 hours ago, Grouse said: So many falsehoods here that I don't have time to write a rebuttal to all of them. Can we just settle on tripe? Mind you, Nontabury is a Yorkshire man who probably likes tripe! The problem with hard Brexiteers is that they can not accept any point of disagreement. The result is they just lose credibility ? So are you telling me that you don't believe that countries some times support the currency of another country. Being a fellow Yorkshireman Grouse, you should know who our patron Saint is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJP Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KarenBravo Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 Latest rate on XE is now 1.219 US$ to the pound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 (edited) This sounds positive, pragmatic... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/37671236?client=safari I'd be interested to know if our illustrious Brexiteers have any fundamental reason for not retaining access to the single market if no strings were attached. Frankly, I would back Sturgeon over Boris or Fox. Edited October 16, 2016 by Grouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KarenBravo Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Grouse said: This sounds positive, pragmatic... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/37671236?client=safari So, how would that work? If Scotland has access to the single market, then, there would also be free movement of labour between Scotland and Europe. This will mean a hard border with immigration controls on the Scots - English border. Never going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJP Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Grouse said: This sounds positive, pragmatic... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/37671236?client=safari Grousey, What would be the effect of the UK just going straight to WTO rules? How much are the tariffs to sell into the EU? US sells more to the EU than the UK does and the UK runs a trade deficit with the EU. With the drop in the Quid, even with the tariffs, does this make the UK more competitive and if so over what time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 15 minutes ago, MJP said: Grousey, What would be the effect of the UK just going straight to WTO rules? How much are the tariffs to sell into the EU? US sells more to the EU than the UK does and the UK runs a trade deficit with the EU. With the drop in the Quid, even with the tariffs, does this make the UK more competitive and if so over what time period? Here's a blog that examines precisely that question. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/10/11/notes-on-brexit-and-the-pound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJP Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 8 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said: Here's a blog that examines precisely that question. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/10/11/notes-on-brexit-and-the-pound Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexRich Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 4 hours ago, Khun Han said: Speculation isn't 'the truth'. And speculation by a clearly remain journalist who won't even put their name to it. Pathetic. The Economist never credit the writer ... a long tradition ... not cowardice on the part of the author. But if you want an unbiased view of the implications of Brexit look at the quotes today from Boris Johnson ... the, until now, unpublished Telegraph op-ed ... he's named and he campaigned for Brexit ... in the article he "urged Britain to stay in the EU". ... but he campaigned to leave because he was told the Little Englanders who vote for the leader would not have backed him for leadership. You'll be familiar with the type ... a hypocrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cumgranosalum Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 don't you just love it - they wanted to leave the EU and now the pound has joined the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJP Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 8 minutes ago, cumgranosalum said: don't you just love it - they wanted to leave the EU and now the pound has joined the Euro! But it hasn't. The UK is not controlled by the ECB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xircal Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 3 hours ago, Khun Han said: Donald Tusk is hardly going to say "Make a list of what you want, and we'll do our best to help." Leading up to this major negotiation, is he? GSK is a British-based multinational which talked about reducing it's investments in the UK pre-referendum, and is now upping it's investments instead, along with many other major businesses. Keep coming up with excuses as to why each of these companies are doing this, it doesn't matter, and the excuses start to get contradictory. The fact is, they're doing it, and the economy is only going to improve as a result. GSK is a pharmaceutical business and in that respect it retains a 20 year monopoly on any new medication it creates. Therefore it's not really going to suffer much even if its products are subjected to a 10% import levy. However, one of Britain's biggest exports to the EU is wheat and barley. In 2015 it supplied 80% of the wheat and 63% of barley consumed in the EU. That may change come Brexit since the EU may choose to import tariff free wheat from countries like the Ukraine instead: http://www.agrimoney.com/news/hard-brexit-could-turn-eu-to-ukraine-for-wheat-rather-than-uk--10025.html Also, Britain imports much more than it exports and the latter only accounts for a third of the gross domestic product. I don't like to plagiarize so I'll refer you to this article which explains why this isn't a good thing: http://www.cafebabel.co.uk/politics/article/a-hard-brexit-may-be-harder-on-the-uk-than-may-realises.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 1 hour ago, KarenBravo said: So, how would that work? If Scotland has access to the single market, then, there would also be free movement of labour between Scotland and Europe. This will mean a hard border with immigration controls on the Scots - English border. Never going to happen. EFTA? Everything is impossible until it's done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 (edited) 19 minutes ago, MJP said: But it hasn't. The UK is not controlled by the ECB. It never was! Edited October 16, 2016 by Grouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJP Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 14 minutes ago, Grouse said: It never was! Yes, I know that. There was a likely chance it would have been at some time in the future however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khun Han Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 I'm no fan of Boris Johnson, who I think is motivated entirely by self-esteem ( for you Yorkshiremen: 'ees a bloody big 'ead). But, according to the political editor of the Sunday Times, Johnson was still forming an opinion when he wrote the previously unpublished piece: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37670091 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nontabury Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 1 hour ago, MJP said: Grousey, What would be the effect of the UK just going straight to WTO rules? How much are the tariffs to sell into the EU? US sells more to the EU than the UK does and the UK runs a trade deficit with the EU. With the drop in the Quid, even with the tariffs, does this make the UK more competitive and if so over what time period? Earlier in this thread,someone said 10% tariffs. Now who said that,ah yes one of the Remoaners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJP Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, nontabury said: Earlier in this thread,someone said 10% tariffs. Now who said that,ah yes one of the Remoaners. So if they Quids' dropped 20% and they add 10% tariffs . . . we're still cheaper. UK economy was shot to pieces anyway and the fall in the Pound was inevitable after QE, wild trade and current account deficits etc. Jim Rogers has for a long time considered the UK to be a basket case. It was coming and now is the chance to put the thing straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 15 minutes ago, MJP said: So if they Quids' dropped 20% and they add 10% tariffs . . . we're still cheaper. UK economy was shot to pieces anyway and the fall in the Pound was inevitable after QE, wild trade and current account deficits etc. Jim Rogers has for a long time considered the UK to be a basket case. It was coming and now is the chance to put the thing straight. Jim Rogers has been predicting disaster for the US economy since forever. http://www.cnbc.com/id/43328325 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.png.3b3332cc2256ad0edbc2fe9404feeef0.png)
Recommended Posts