Falling Pound Affecting UK Ex-Pats

[worgeordie]

21 hours ago, KhonKaenKowboy said:

maybe it's just a map of their slave business.

Or the East Indies Company  drug business,

regards worgeordie

[chiang mai]

59 minutes ago, millwall_fan said:

I don't deny any of that, but I don't see that it invalidates my argument in the rather dismissive way you did. 

Incidentally one of the reasons why public debt, whilst rising is low compared to many other countries is that Thailand spends precious little on providing a safety net for the poor like many countries with higher debts do. 

 

You say that BOT keeps the value of THB artificially high and that it does so by keeping interest rates high, I say that's rubbish - interest rates are, as stated, designed to stimulate a poorly performing economy and/or to manage inflation in an overheating economy, not to line the pockets of the so called ruling elite and history shows that is exactly how they have been used.
 

And THB value is determined by demand and unfortunately demand is strong hence the currency is strong, much to the chagrin of government who would perhaps like to see a weaker Baht at times. But just because the rice pledging scheme waned the opposite of what the economy needed is tough tit!

 

And frankly, looking at good sound economic practises and using them to make a case that they serve the interests of the elite is just ridiculous, it's people looking for smoke when there's not even any combustible material in sight.

 

[KhonKaenKowboy]

16 hours ago, Konini said:

 

I'm also worried about more than a few of my friends.  The once comfortable enough pensions they have are now coming in under the  financial requirement for the retirement extension.

 

I really am concerned - when the government invoke section 50, the pound will plummet - probably short term panic and it will recover very quickly, but it won't recover to the level prior to the official exit request.

 

At that point, I really worry about a lot more people who rely on the income system rather than the 800,000 in the bank.

 

(And bummer of all bummers, we've just sold an investment property in England, no way are we going to move the money out of UK.  The Aussie dollar (which most of our finances are in) is buying 60p at the moment.  Not that long ago it was buying 30p).

Is there some reason these poor souls can't use the combination method for their extension?  Perhaps, too easy for the Hardway Club, which has always had a large British contingent.

 

Edited October 9, 2016 by KhonKaenKowboy

[worgeordie]

The collapse of Sterling had has no effect on me,I am still 

spending the Bhat I bought here nearly 30 years ago,I think

it was something like 87 THB =1 Pound, my pension from

U.K. stays there,So I think I am very lucky,it could only have

been luck,as no one could have foreseen that this would happen,

and plan ahead for it.

 

I think things will stabilise ,and Sterling will recover,but how long

it will take ......no one knows,in fact the whole World seems to be  

in a right mess,and i blame Politicians and their masters the Banks. 

regards worgeordie

[millwall_fan]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

You say that BOT keeps the value of THB artificially high and that it does so by keeping interest rates high, I say that's rubbish - interest rates are, as stated, designed to stimulate a poorly performing economy and/or to manage inflation in an overheating economy, not to line the pockets of the so called ruling elite and history shows that is exactly how they have been used.
 

And THB value is determined by demand and unfortunately demand is strong hence the currency is strong, much to the chagrin of government who would perhaps like to see a weaker Baht at times. But just because the rice pledging scheme waned the opposite of what the economy needed is tough tit!

 

And frankly, looking at good sound economic practises and using them to make a case that they serve the interests of the elite is just ridiculous, it's people looking for smoke when there's not even any combustible material in sight.

 

If you bothered to read my post you would note that I said "The Bank of Thailand has the power to set interest rates as well as the ability to influence rates by other means. 

 

"Good sound economic practices" are fine as long as they benefit the whole of society. The 'combustible material you speak of include state pensions of 500 Baht a month, a school system that is broken both materially and educationally, a total lack of a decent public transport system outside Bangkok, water management systems designed purely to protect the needs of Bangkok etc etc. The long suffering patience of the Thai people means that these issues rarely combust - and in any event at the moment, any attempt at combustion would meet with a swift and dangerous visit to the army's extra-judicial justice. 

[sandyf]

On 10/7/2016 at 2:22 PM, Baerboxer said:

Check your % Joe. That's a 17% fall. 

 

Most pundits were suggesting the pound was too high even before Brexit and forecasting a much lower rate by the end of the year against the USD. Anticipating a FED interest rate increase.

 

Many were predicting a GBP dollar rate of 1.20 by year end. It was trading at 1.45 to 1.49 range before Bexit and had strengthened a little. 

 

The rate against the ThB is down by a similar %. 

 

Very hard to predict FX with all the nuances and surprises including trader thinking. But budgeting at 1.20 to 1.25 at the moment seems reasonable. 

 

It was not so long ago that some were predicting the USD was down the pan, going to collapse and take the world down with it. 

This is about the only hope for the Pound. The Saudi/ China deal is another nail in the petrodollar coffin and may stop the slide. Thailand has large USD foreign reserves so if the dollar goes down its more Baht to the Pound.

[Chiengmaijoe]

2 hours ago, worgeordie said:

The collapse of Sterling had has no effect on me,I am still 

spending the Bhat I bought here nearly 30 years ago,I think

it was something like 87 THB =1 Pound, my pension from

U.K. stays there,So I think I am very lucky,it could only have

been luck,as no one could have foreseen that this would happen,

and plan ahead for it.

 

I think things will stabilise ,and Sterling will recover,but how long

it will take ......no one knows,in fact the whole World seems to be  

in a right mess,and i blame Politicians and their masters the Banks. 

regards worgeordie

 

Thirty years ago, in 1986, the baht was less than 40 to the pound. It wasn't until the Asian financial crisis of 1997 (less than 20 years ago)  that the pound went above 50 to the baht. When I first came to stay in 1989 it was about 40 and for the  next 8 years it probably averaged 45, with a low of about 38. 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2016 by Chiengmaijoe

[dave2]

if it drops much more i might have to

 

sob sob .. dave2

[sandyf]

5 minutes ago, Chiengmaijoe said:

 

In 1986 the baht was less than 40 to the pound. It wasn't until the crash of 1997 (less than 20 years ago)  that the pound went above 50 to the baht. When I first came to stay in 1989 it was about 40 and for the  next 8 years it probably averaged 45, with a low of about 38. 

 

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-graph-zoom.php?C1=THB&C2=GBP&A=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1980&DD2=07&MM2=10&YYYY2=2016&LARGE=1&LANG=en&CJ=0&MM1Y=0

 

Referring to rates that existed in times gone bye is a bit pointless, the cost of everyday expenses is not quite the same. About 10 years ago, petrol was around 13 baht /litre and a night in the Sunshine Soi 8 would set you back around 800 baht, both have more than doubled since then.

We all know that currency can change withe global events. This situation however is a bit different, a deliberate act of sabotage by a section of the UK public led by a bunch of inept politicians chasing their own agenda.

[sandyf]

Two peas in a pod.

 

After posting I can see the text is not very clear, the upper chart is GBP/THB and the lower GBP/USD.

Edited October 9, 2016 by sandyf

[Bill97]

So it is all the fault of the USD and those damn Yanks.[emoji12]

[fcgprg]

9 hours ago, KhonKaenKowboy said:

Is there some reason these poor souls can't use the combination method for their extension?  Perhaps, too easy for the Hardway Club, which has always had a large British contingent.

 

Not as big has the yanks.

[hmficc]

7 hours ago, sandyf said:

This is about the only hope for the Pound. The Saudi/ China deal is another nail in the petrodollar coffin and may stop the slide. Thailand has large USD foreign reserves so if the dollar goes down its more Baht to the Pound.

" is that a straw that I see before me? Come let me clutch thee."

[hmficc]

7 hours ago, sandyf said:

Referring to rates that existed in times gone bye is a bit pointless, the cost of everyday expenses is not quite the same. About 10 years ago, petrol was around 13 baht /litre and a night in the Sunshine Soi 8 would set you back around 800 baht, both have more than doubled since then.

We all know that currency can change withe global events. This situation however is a bit different, a deliberate act of sabotage by a section of the UK public led by a bunch of inept politicians chasing their own agenda.

Well said CJ. A more fitting comparison would be Purchasing Power Parity.

Look  that up, like a good chap, and let us know what you find.

[Chiengmaijoe]

54 minutes ago, hmficc said:

Well said CJ. A more fitting comparison would be Purchasing Power Parity.

Look  that up, like a good chap, and let us know what you find.

 

Except during a financial crisis. In 1997 it went from about 45 to 90, and almost touched 100 for a day or so. Bringing your money in at that time makes a hell of a difference compared to a month or two before, Purchasing Power Parity or not.