3.2% economic growth target to be achieved

[webfact]

3.2% growth to be achieved

 

 

BANGKOK: -- The recovery of household purchasing power will help to shore up economic growth this year to achieve the 3.2% growth target, National News Bureau of Thailand (NNT) said.

 

NNT said Krungsri Bank’s chief economist Somprawin Manprasert stated that the purchasing power of Thai households is rebounding in all regions of the country, recording an increase of about 8,000-12,000 baht per household. Supporting factors include the expanding revenue from tourism, improving agricultural prices and the reduction of debts incurred by the previous government’s first-car program.

 

Combined with the government’s acceleration of infrastructure investment and assistance of low-income earners, the bank expects the Thai economy to expand by 3.2 percent for 2016 and 3.3 percent for 2017.

 

The policy interest rate is likely to remain unchanged until the end of next year while the value of the Thai currency this year is estimated at 35.2 baht against the US dollar on average.

 

Full story: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/3-2-growth-to-be-achieved/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2016-10-19

[RichardColeman]

Oh dear. Thais raking up more household debt to support the economy. There's a big bust coming somewhere soon.

[Brer Fox]

Of all the massaging that goes on in Thailand it must be the economic statistics the receive the most manipulation and always with a happy ending.

[JAG]

Yeah right of course it will.

[elgordo38]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

Oh dear. Thais raking up more household debt to support the economy. There's a big bust coming somewhere soon.

Thailand through the looking glass. Make it so Scotty.

[Radar501]

The recent price gouging of black shirts alone would account for a 3.2% growth target.

 

 

[realenglish1]

After we hit the 3 + growth please take a look at my beach front property for sale in Florida

Very good price

[Retiredandhappyhere]

Realenglish said in post no.7:-

 

• "After we hit the 3 + growth please take a look at my beach front property for sale in Florida

  Very good price"

   

 

• This is Thailand, so you can be certain of at least one set of statistics confirming that 3.2% growth (as forecasted) was achieved.  So, good luck with the sale of your beach front property in Florida.

[fruitman]

It's far from crisis now,  i was in Central Bangna and Mega Bangna last sunday and have never seen it so busy, the WHOLE parkinglots totally full and a long trafficjam to Central Bangna.

[ikke]

And if not achieved , they can always force the numbers with art 44....

 

[Denim]

Would that be positive or negative growth ?

[digibum]

Quote

On the downside, Mr Somprawin said Thai exports have been struggling with sluggish recovery, with a contraction of 2 percent forecast for the entire year.

 

The above was left out of the TV quote of the article but is very telling because it puts everything else in perspective.  The Thai economy has exports, domestic spending, and tourism as the main pillars.  Exports are contracting at 2% (at a minimum as I'm sure this is a rosy picture being painted).  That means domestic spending and tourism need to pick up the slack.  

 

I think that tourism will remain strong but it will pull back from the growth path it was on.  I think I'll just leave it rather than offer any specific reasons for my thoughts.  

 

On the domestic spending front, Thais are already levered to the hilt.  Official household debt is near 100% of GDP and there's a lot of unofficial household debt not even being taken into account.  I really don't think they have it in them to spend at the levels it would take to boost the economy.  No matter how easy and cheap the government makes credit there's a limit to how much debt people can swallow.  

 

The fact that a good deal of the growth is being put on the backs of consumers seems to indicate that this is, as usual, nothing more than wishful thinking.  Also not included in this is if things don't go exactly as they forecast.  In fact no Thai forecasts ever seem to take into account floods, droughts, or any other natural (yet fairly frequent) disasters.  

 

The only way Thailand hits those numbers is if exports improve, tourism performs better than expected, Thai consumers get even deeper into debt (which will eventually come back and bite them down the road), or the government buys GDP growth via dumping a ton of cash into public spending.  

[surangw]

will inflation increase at the same rate ?