May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[jpinx]

23 minutes ago, pegman said:

Mine was a rhetorical question mate.

Mine wasn't.  There's enough uninformed opinions flying around

[dick dasterdly]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

The above is from the Rowntree Foundation. It is an academic analysis of the referendum. I have had to put up with criticism for a year on this issue. They even concur with the inequality point. Finally, the author explained on The Politics yesterday why this could be the death knell of Labour (nothing to do with Corbyn). He reckons that Labour's traditional base want both economic protectionism AND cultural protectionism. That splits metro multicultural Labour types from those in the industrial heartlands. Meanwhile the Con Party will make hay. Maybe Blair/Schroeder/ Clinton style social democracy is dead? Maybe time for a new Liberal resurgence to counter balance the Tories?

Except you keep going on about the 'uneducated and numpties'.

 

If instead, you'd referred to the 'disadvantaged and poor' - then you would have been less likely to come across as arrogant and condescending.... the main reason you've had to put up with so much criticism.

[jpinx]

2 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Except you keep going on about the 'uneducated and numpties'.

 

If instead, you'd referred to the 'disadvantaged and poor' - then you would have been less likely to come across as arrogant and condescending.... the main reason you've had to put up with so much criticism.

Some people enjoy starting an argument in an empty room

 

No-one has explained away the correlation between older people not have the same standards of education, because standards have dropped, and incomers not being counted as "educated" because their particular levels are not recognised in UK.  If anyone can come up with some reasonable data on that and refer it to this so-called social analysis of the result, then we might have a discussion, but the intelligencia are determined to hold the masses down with arrogance and buffoonery -- they don't like to admit that in the real world they are actually the clowns of the piece.

[Grouse]

10 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Except you keep going on about the 'uneducated and numpties'.

 

If instead, you'd referred to the 'disadvantaged and poor' - then you would have been less likely to come across as arrogant and condescending.... the main reason you've had to put up with so much criticism.

Have you read the piece?

 

What would be a euphemism for uneducated? Educationally disadvantaged?

 

Numpty is quite an amusing word. I could have been harsher! The subset that I "amusingly" refer to us as numpties were those that voted without bothering to look into the background, the facts etc.

 

Anyway, this piece is pretty good and nicely explains the situation. I shall certainly buy his book

[SaintLouisBlues]

15 minutes ago, jpinx said:

they don't like to admit that in the real world they are actually the clowns of the piece.

Ah yes, the "real world", that giveaway phrase that means "I'm patronising you"

[jpinx]

1 minute ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Ah yes, the "real world", that giveaway phrase that means "I'm patronising you"

Quoted out of context.  It's those intelligent numpties who are trying to patronise those they perceive as being of lesser education and capability.

[Grouse]

6 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Some people enjoy starting an argument in an empty room

 

No-one has explained away the correlation between older people not have the same standards of education, because standards have dropped, and incomers not being counted as "educated" because their particular levels are not recognised in UK.  If anyone can come up with some reasonable data on that and refer it to this so-called social analysis of the result, then we might have a discussion, but the intelligencia are determined to hold the masses down with arrogance and buffoonery -- they don't like to admit that in the real world they are actually the clowns of the piece.

And some people can't stand the truth when it hurts!

 

Have you read the piece? 

 

Nobody is trying to hold anybody down, just analysing what happened. 

 

Could well result in the demise of labour.

 

Didn't quite get your point about age/education...

 

Certainly true that not so many people in the past got university education

 

Certainly true that standards have dropped

 

I not agree that the "intelligencia" are trying to hold the masses down. Guilty of not working harder to rectify inequality and crucially not recognising the desire for cultural protectionism.

[Grouse]

6 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Quoted out of context.  It's those intelligent numpties who are trying to patronise those they perceive as being of lesser education and capability.

No desire to patronise anyone. Just pointing out some interesting correlations and providing some useful analysis from The Rowntree Foundation. I guess one can't force people to learn....

[SaintLouisBlues]

30 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Quoted out of context.  It's those intelligent numpties who are trying to patronise those they perceive as being of lesser education and capability.

Yes, you're the patroniser as we can readily see by your use of phrases such as "intelligent numpties"

[dick dasterdly]

3 hours ago, Grouse said:

The above is from the Rowntree Foundation. It is an academic analysis of the referendum. I have had to put up with criticism for a year on this issue. They even concur with the inequality point. Finally, the author explained on The Politics yesterday why this could be the death knell of Labour (nothing to do with Corbyn). He reckons that Labour's traditional base want both economic protectionism AND cultural protectionism. That splits metro multicultural Labour types from those in the industrial heartlands. Meanwhile the Con Party will make hay. Maybe Blair/Schroeder/ Clinton style social democracy is dead? Maybe time for a new Liberal resurgence to counter balance the Tories?

 

43 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Except you keep going on about the 'uneducated and numpties'.

 

If instead, you'd referred to the 'disadvantaged and poor' - then you would have been less likely to come across as arrogant and condescending.... the main reason you've had to put up with so much criticism.

 

28 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Have you read the piece?

 

What would be a euphemism for uneducated? Educationally disadvantaged?

 

Numpty is quite an amusing word. I could have been harsher! The subset that I "amusingly" refer to us as numpties were those that voted without bothering to look into the background, the facts etc.

 

Anyway, this piece is pretty good and nicely explains the situation. I shall certainly buy his book

No need for 'euphemisms' - its easy enough to refer to a majority of the voters with whom you disagree as disadvantaged and poor (and more relevant IMO).  Edit - as per the article you quoted...

 

Edited February 13, 2017 by dick dasterdly

[Grouse]

5 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

 

No need for 'euphemisms' - its easy enough to refer to a majority of the voters with whom you disagree (and more relevant IMO) as disadvantaged and poor.

So this whole situation is largely a result of inequality? I think so.

[Grouse]

Let me be clear

 

I am not disadvantaged and I am not poor but I am certainly not gloating

 

I still believe that Brexit is a catastrophe 

 

Nothing can be done now except damage limitation

 

My interest is why this ( and the analogous Trump catastrophe) occurred. The JRF piece posted above analyses referendum result rather well.

 

Personally, I reached the conclusion some months ago that the over riding cause was inequality.

 

I think the "social democrats" did not see this coming and must shoulder at least some of the blame.

 

My fear now is that the Con Party will take advantage and run roughshod over the very people who voted for change.

 

Having no credible opposition is a major problem. If Labour does not wake up to the fact that much of their support wanted economic protectionism AND cultural protectionism they will be out of power for a generation. Worrying.

[Khun Han]

4 hours ago, Grouse said:

For those who don't know, it's all about flexibility. You don't want to have to rush away from a meeting to catch a flight when there's another one two hours later.

 

The airlines know this and charge what they can get away with.

 

And for those who don't know, BA and most other carriers offer fully flexible economy class tickets. Business class basically came about because businesses bought the tickets for their staff and bosses. Which business bought all those flights for Mhairi Black? You got it: that hugely successful business The British Public.

[jpinx]

59 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

 

No need for 'euphemisms' - its easy enough to refer to a majority of the voters with whom you disagree as disadvantaged and poor (and more relevant IMO).  Edit - as per the article you quoted...

 

Here's some interesting "hard facts"..

.

• A majority of those working full-time or part-time voted to remain in the EU; most of those not working voted to leave. More than half of those retired on a private pension voted to leave, as did two thirds of those retired on a state pension.

• Among private renters and people with mortgages, a small majority (55% and 54%) voted to remain; those who owned their homes outright voted to leave by 55% to 45%. Around two thirds of council and housing association tenants voted to leave.

• A majority (57%) of those with a university degree voted to remain, as did 64% of those with a higher degree and more than four in five (81%) of those still in full time education. Among those whose formal education ended at secondary school or earlier, a large majority voted to leave.

• White voters voted to leave the EU by 53% to 47%. Two thirds (67%) of those describing themselves as Asian voted to remain, as did three quarters (73%) of black voters. Nearly six in ten (58%) of those describing themselves as Christian voted to leave; seven in ten Muslims voted to remain.

• The AB social group (broadly speaking, professionals and managers) were the only social group among whom a majority voted to remain (57%). C1s divided fairly evenly; nearly two thirds of C2DEs (64%) voted to leave the EU.

More from here....  http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

 

The fruitgum analysis is a bit too fruity

It's very interesting that they do not make any analysis of the averaged education levels achieved across the time-span of the voters ages which were used in their analysis.

Edited February 13, 2017 by jpinx

[dick dasterdly]

3 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Let me be clear

 

I am not disadvantaged and I am not poor but I am certainly not gloating

 

I still believe that Brexit is a catastrophe 

 

Nothing can be done now except damage limitation

 

My interest is why this ( and the analogous Trump catastrophe) occurred. The JRF piece posted above analyses referendum result rather well.

 

Personally, I reached the conclusion some months ago that the over riding cause was inequality.

 

I think the "social democrats" did not see this coming and must shoulder at least some of the blame.

 

My fear now is that the Con Party will take advantage and run roughshod over the very people who voted for change.

 

Having no credible opposition is a major problem. If Labour does not wake up to the fact that much of their support wanted economic protectionism AND cultural protectionism they will be out of power for a generation. Worrying.

Nobody has ever said that you're "gloating" - as all the immediate catastrophe predictions were proven wrong, giving you no reason to 'gloat'.

 

Perhaps in future you'll refer to the majority of those who voted leave in the referendum as disadvantaged and poor, rather than uneducated and numpties?  It would be a step forward towards sensible debate.

 

We've all been discussing why this happened ever since the referendum result (!) and it seems to boil down to (as recognised immediately be some of us):-

 

1) The poorly paid/disadvantaged finally getting pissed off enough at everything happening in their own lives, resulting in them (given a yes/no vote) deciding to ignore the fear mongering/advice/opinions of 'experts' and vote against the experts/MPs, in the hope this will force change and recognition of their problems.

 

2) (Tied to the above) those who are far from happy at the 'open borders' policy.

 

3) Those who who don't want the EU 'ruling' the UK.

 

4) Those who believe the EU bureaucrats are forming a left-wing state.

 

4) Those who are bad-tempered about the money wasted by the EU on overpaid bureaucrats etc. etc.

 

Of course there are many other reasons why the majority of voters voted the way they did, but I think these are the main reasons - which have been put forward on this forum both pre and post the referendum.

 

[jpinx]

18 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Here's some interesting "hard facts"..

.

• A majority of those working full-time or part-time voted to remain in the EU; most of those not working voted to leave. More than half of those retired on a private pension voted to leave, as did two thirds of those retired on a state pension.

• Among private renters and people with mortgages, a small majority (55% and 54%) voted to remain; those who owned their homes outright voted to leave by 55% to 45%. Around two thirds of council and housing association tenants voted to leave.

• A majority (57%) of those with a university degree voted to remain, as did 64% of those with a higher degree and more than four in five (81%) of those still in full time education. Among those whose formal education ended at secondary school or earlier, a large majority voted to leave.

• White voters voted to leave the EU by 53% to 47%. Two thirds (67%) of those describing themselves as Asian voted to remain, as did three quarters (73%) of black voters. Nearly six in ten (58%) of those describing themselves as Christian voted to leave; seven in ten Muslims voted to remain.

• The AB social group (broadly speaking, professionals and managers) were the only social group among whom a majority voted to remain (57%). C1s divided fairly evenly; nearly two thirds of C2DEs (64%) voted to leave the EU.

More from here....  http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

 

The fruitgum analysis is a bit too fruity

It's very interesting that they do not make any analysis of the averaged education levels achieved across the time-span of the voters ages which were used in their analysis.

Degree results obtained by The Sunday Telegraph show six out of 10 students were handed either a first or an upper second in 2010, compared with just one in three graduates in 1970.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/8235115/Dumbing-down-of-university-grades-revealed.html

...feed that into your analysis 

 

[onthesoi]

2 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

all the immediate catastrophe predictions were proven wrong,

Can you list which predications were proven wrong?

 

The biggest currency devaluation in more than 30 years might just qualify as a catastrophe....& article 50 hasn't even been submitted yet, so the worst could be and is most likely still to come!

[pitrevie]

1 minute ago, onthesoi said:

Can you list which predications were proven wrong?

 

The biggest currency devaluation in more than 30 years might just qualify as a catastrophe....& article 50 hasn't even been submitted yet, so the worst could be and is most likely still to come!

Agreed we are probably going to see the pound go much lower and a 120 billion pounds of extra borrowing which the current Chancellor announced caused by Brexit might also qualify. 

[Khun Han]

12 minutes ago, onthesoi said:

Can you list which predications were proven wrong?

 

The biggest currency devaluation in more than 30 years might just qualify as a catastrophe....& article 50 hasn't even been submitted yet, so the worst could be and is most likely still to come!

 

Here wo go again. It's groundhog day with some posters. Or is it called trolling?

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors

 

"the worst is yet to come"

 

Yes.....for the EU. Not the UK. As confirmed by major business leaders such as Joe Kaeser, who put his money where his mouth is when announcing it.

Edited February 13, 2017 by Khun Han

[SaintLouisBlues]

51 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Here's some interesting "hard facts"..

Any chance of a Venn diagram?

[nontabury]

3 hours ago, jpinx said:

Bad example --  that post has been kicked to death many times since it first appeared many months ago.  That lady actually is the one who made the excellent remarks on UK being able to pay for wars, but not pensioners.....    

 

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

 

No need for 'euphemisms' - its easy enough to refer to a majority of the voters with whom you disagree as disadvantaged and poor (and more relevant IMO).  Edit - as per the article you quoted...

 

I also admired her. Though are you saying she did't play the system with her travelling expenses.

[dick dasterdly]

5 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Here wo go again. It's groundhog day with some posters. Or is it called trolling?

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors

 

"the worst is yet to come"

 

Yes.....for the EU. Not the UK. As confirmed by major business leaders such as Joe Kaeser, who put his money where his mouth is when announcing it.

Exactly, many 'experts' have admitted that they were proven wrong - and yet some posters still pretend this is not the case.

 

I was 'glued' to the pre-brexit forum(s) and so read of far greater currency falls (predicted by some posters) than the 15% that has happened so far, plus IIRC other immediate catastrophic business effects - in line with the 'experts' predictions....

 

It may happen in the future, but none of us know - which is why its all opinion at this stage.

[jpinx]

11 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Here wo go again. It's groundhog day with some posters. Or is it called trolling?

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors

 

"the worst is yet to come"

 

Yes.....for the EU. Not the UK. As confirmed by major business leaders such as Joe Kaeser, who put his money where his mouth is when announcing it.

It's groundhog day.  Same posters ask the same question multiple times and if there's a punctuation difference between your answers they will pounce on it like a vicious kitten.  I refer all repeat questions (that I recognise) back to the poster and tell them to do their own <deleted>' legwork.  Venn Diagrams <deleted>?  They'll be wanting a colouring-in book of maps of the EU next.   How about some NEW news.  What's the state of play on the court action supposedly going through dublin courts?  Even the UK press are struggling to come up with new news on brexit. 

[dick dasterdly]

25 minutes ago, onthesoi said:

Can you list which predications were proven wrong?

 

The biggest currency devaluation in more than 30 years might just qualify as a catastrophe....& article 50 hasn't even been submitted yet, so the worst could be and is most likely still to come!

My favourite was Osborne's promised 'emergency budget' , but as mentioned in my last post he wasn't the only one predicting immediate dire consequences in the event of a 'brexit' vote.

 

The 'experts' have admitted they were wrong, unlike some posters....

[nontabury]

38 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Here wo go again. It's groundhog day with some posters. Or is it called trolling?

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors

 

"the worst is yet to come"

 

Yes.....for the EU. Not the UK. As confirmed by major business leaders such as Joe Kaeser, who put his money where his mouth is when announcing it.

 

A few months ago many of the  Remoaners were predicting £-$. These being the same people who are not prepared to accept the will of the people. In fact one very arrogant Remoaners declared he would now go to live in Germany. Well I'm still hoping.

 

Edited February 13, 2017 by nontabury

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

And for those who don't know, BA and most other carriers offer fully flexible economy class tickets. Business class basically came about because businesses bought the tickets for their staff and bosses. Which business bought all those flights for Mhairi Black? You got it: that hugely successful business The British Public.

I stand corrected. Things have changed since I was a regular.

 

I just checked and if I wanted the cheapest seats GLA/LHR day return with no meal, no checked bag, no pre-assigned seat the return fair is 408 GBP on BA. 60 GBP additional for each change. 

 

Frankly, 14k GBP for 40 flights is not worth discussing.

 

Why do you resent everything and everybody??

[Grouse]

56 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Degree results obtained by The Sunday Telegraph show six out of 10 students were handed either a first or an upper second in 2010, compared with just one in three graduates in 1970.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/8235115/Dumbing-down-of-university-grades-revealed.html

...feed that into your analysis 

 

You are preaching to the converted. A British first degree has been massively devalued (As have A levels). In a foolish attempt to get youth unemployment numbers down, the Blair government (I think) attempted to get many more people into university. Loads of new universities were also created. We now have a situation analogous to that in the USA where a first degree was never worth very much. Instead of 30% or 60% I wonder what the actual numbers are.

 

Having said all that, some education is better than none. We have managed to create such an underclass in the UK and seems to carry on from generation to generation.

[dick dasterdly]

7 minutes ago, Grouse said:

You are preaching to the converted. A British first degree has been massively devalued (As have A levels). In a foolish attempt to get youth unemployment numbers down, the Blair government (I think) attempted to get many more people into university. Loads of new universities were also created. We now have a situation analogous to that in the USA where a first degree was never worth very much. Instead of 30% or 60% I wonder what the actual numbers are.

 

Having said all that, some education is better than none. We have managed to create such an underclass in the UK and seems to carry on from generation to generation.

Having worked in a school in a poor area (although, thankfully not as a teacher!), I think I understand why so many under-privileged children continue in the same way.  Their parents(s) blame anyone/everyone else when their child behaves extremely badly (an under-statement) and schools find it almost impossible to get rid of the 'disruptive' children (another under-statement).

 

These appalling children are only following their parents' example in most cases and, lacking any discipline other than when the parent hits them because they've annoyed the parent.... they continue the same pattern .

 

Fortunately this true 'underclass' is a tiny minority as most parents want their children to do as well as possible.

 

Can't begin to number the 'stories' I have to support this POV.....

 

Entirely off topic though and, back on topic - we can only have an opinion as to how the UK will fare in negotiations with the EU.  At the moment, the EU is struggling with not only the loss of one of its few paying members - but other EU countries showing signs of going the same way, not to mention the precarious financial position of a few member countries.

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

I was 'glued' to the pre-brexit forum(s) and so read of far greater currency falls (predicted by some posters) than the 15% that has happened so far,

 

And anyone following the running commentaries on Sterling's performance by the likes of Sheung Wan and Grouse would expect Sterling to be trading at about 80 or 90 US Cents by now. According to some posters, Sterling only ever falls in value.

[Khun Han]

59 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Why do you resent everything and everybody??

 

I'm not the one who talks down the British masses in a derogatory manner.