May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[pitrevie]

30 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

Just the remainer opinion. Times ahead are going to be fine (though I expect there will be a few blips that remainers will be all over like a rash). Just like the 'tough times' that were supposed to be upon us now never materialised.

No apart from the pound falling dramatically and the Chancellor announcing that Brexit has caused 122 billion pounds of extra borrowing. remind us how much we were going to save by getting out of the EU.

 

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, Grouse said:

It recovered 

Not according to the rates I'm looking at on the SCB exchange rate website!

 

Having said this, there's a HUGE spread between 'notes' selling rate and 'T-chqs & chqs' buying rate (45.4/42.9).

[dick dasterdly]

Ignore the above as its way off topic, other than why the dollar seems to be doing fine (despite the uncertainty of Trump's election) whilst sterling isn't doing so well.  "Uncertainty" and the other explanations given explain nothing since Trump's election when it comes to currency fluctuations.

 

Back on topic, the UK can only have "tough" talks with the EU if the end result is either accepting the eventual deal, or no deal.

 

But again, this is better discussed on another thread.

[Orac]

Should the UK negotiating team be unable to come to an agreement with the EU in the two years then what 'deal' will parliament get to vote on?

[pitrevie]

4 minutes ago, Orac said:

Should the UK negotiating team be unable to come to an agreement with the EU in the two years then what 'deal' will parliament get to vote on?

 

Brexit: Theresa May tells EU that 'no deal is better than a bad deal for Britain' Theresa May has warned the European Union that she is prepared to walk away from the negotiating table as she set out her blueprint for Brexit.

[dick dasterdly]

3 minutes ago, Orac said:

Should the UK negotiating team be unable to come to an agreement with the EU in the two years then what 'deal' will parliament get to vote on?

The UK and EU govts. have a deadline once article 50 is invoked - 2 years to come up with a deal.

 

If they're unable to do so in that time frame then the only answer can be no deal was possible - and so the UK will leave without any agreement and MPs will have the right to activate a vote of 'no confidence', and initiate a general election in which there is likely to be at least one side advocating 're-enter'.

 

But its extremely unlikely to reach this point.

[nontabury]

8 hours ago, pegman said:

The more I read about this the less I get it.

 

"The City of London stands to lose 10,000 banking jobs and 20,000 roles in accountancy, law and consulting, as EU clients move business worth €1.8tn (£1.6tn) to the continent after Brexit, according to Brussels-based Bruegel."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/07/brexit-uk-finance-brussels-thinktank-city-banking-eu-bruegel

 

 

 According to Brussels based Bruegel and reported in the Guardian. "Oh" I do like this evenhanded reporting.

 

[sandyf]

17 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

Not sure why that is devious as long as MPs are allowed to vote on either accepting or rejecting (i.e. no deal) the outcome of negotiations?

 

It only becomes "devious" when MPs are given the right to demand re-negotiation ahead of any negotiations.

Saying one thing and meaning another would be considered devious by most people. How were the would be rebels satisfied when in fact nothing had changed?

 

Brexit minister David Jones had sought to satisfy would-be rebels by saying that MPs would be given a vote before negotiations were concluded and the final deal was put to the European Parliament.

 

The Prime Minister’s spokesperson confirmed to journalists at an official briefing that the Government had in fact not changed its position and was only offering a “take-it-or-leave-it” vote. 

 

 

[SheungWan]

12 hours ago, nontabury said:

 According to Brussels based Bruegel and reported in the Guardian. "Oh" I do like this evenhanded reporting.

 

I guess you are another one who prefers the Bolton News and the Aberdeen Telegraph for your up-to-date analysis.

[nontabury]

36 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

I guess you are another one who prefers the Bolton News and the Aberdeen Telegraph for your up-to-date analysis.

As I believe they would be less biased.Then the answer is YES.

[pegman]

2 hours ago, nontabury said:

As I believe they would be less biased.Then the answer is YES.

So do you think that the centre of the EU financial industry will remain in The City and not move to Frankfurt et al?

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, pegman said:

So do you think that the centre of the EU financial industry will remain in The City and not move to Frankfurt et al?

Barclay's CEO today has said that the EU's capital market oxygen remains in London and this is a position gaining support, including Germany's finance minister: http://www.cityam.com/258436/germanys-finance-minster-warns-against-punishing-britain

 

[jpinx]

8 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Barclay's CEO today has said that the EU's capital market oxygen remains in London and this is a position gaining support, including Germany's finance minister: http://www.cityam.com/258436/germanys-finance-minster-warns-against-punishing-britain

 

Have any of you actually gone around London recently and seen the rate of building projects being abandoned, or have any of you spoken first hand to EO's of any of the big finance houses in London to ask about their move to Europe?    

[citybiker]

Well HoP passed the Brexit Bill pretty much unscathed, now for the Lords.

Interesting times lay ahead.


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[dick dasterdly]

Just now, citybiker said:

Well HoP passed the Brexit Bill pretty much unscathed, now for the Lords.

Interesting times lay ahead.


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Which proved me wrong, as I was sure that MPs would insist on being able to amend any final agreement!

[jpinx]

9 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Which proved me wrong, as I was sure that MPs would insist on being able to amend any final agreement!

TM the PM said that the UK negotiating team have to present the final deal agreed and BOTH houses will get a vote, but not sure if they will get any chance for amendment at that stage, unless the team have cleverly built some options into the deal in a prioritised list. 

 

Once this stage is over and the negotiations start, the UK will keep quiet, but will the EU stay silent ?  The press will be all over them for information, clues, hints, and there are few politicians who will be able to stay silent, so the "Tough Talks" moniker might well refer to the dressings down that a few people will be getting for their "loose lips". 

 

Now it's a process we are watching, we have no more input and no more influence -- not that that will stop the gasbags.  :)

Edited February 9, 2017 by jpinx

[SheungWan]

6 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Have any of you actually gone around London recently and seen the rate of building projects being abandoned, or have any of you spoken first hand to EO's of any of the big finance houses in London to ask about their move to Europe?    

We are all suffering dreadfully back in Zone 1. GS new Euro headquarters building coming along nicely. Foundation work now completed.

 

[dick dasterdly]

13 minutes ago, jpinx said:

TM the PM said that the UK negotiating team have to present the final deal agreed and BOTH houses will get a vote, but not sure if they will get any chance for amendment at that stage, unless the team have cleverly built some options into the deal in a prioritised list. 

 

Once this stage is over and the negotiations start, the UK will keep quiet, but will the EU stay silent ?  The press will be all over them for information, clues, hints, and there are few politicians who will be able to stay silent, so the "Tough Talks" moniker might well refer to the dressings down that a few people will be getting for their "loose lips". 

 

Now it's a process we are watching, we have no more input and no more influence -- not that that will stop the gasbags.  :)

But they'll only get a vote on whether to accept the final deal, or whether to vote against it - which will result in WTO applying.

 

Its going to be a VERY long 2 years after article 50 is invoked as we read numerous articles about what various people are saying about the negotiations....

[Grouse]

55 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Barclay's CEO today has said that the EU's capital market oxygen remains in London and this is a position gaining support, including Germany's finance minister: http://www.cityam.com/258436/germanys-finance-minster-warns-against-punishing-britain

 

I hope this is indeed the case!

[jpinx]

2 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

But they'll only get a vote on whether to accept the final deal, or whether to vote against it - which will result in WTO applying.

 

Its going to be a VERY long 2 years after article 50 is invoked as we read numerous articles about what various people are saying about the negotiations....

Well -- a clever negotiator would be able to build in options for the house to pick over.  Even the commercial wheeler-dealers know how to do this, and -- given that most of Brexit is about numbers - it should not be too difficult.   EU needs to recognise that the "no deal" option is a lot worse for them than it is for UK.  EU members will have no benefits of any kind if it's a "no-deal" and will actually lose the deal *and* the income, whereas UK suddenly stops haemoragging hard cash and has the chance to settle into new deals where they like, without Brussels intervention. 

[jpinx]

28 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

We are all suffering dreadfully back in Zone 1. GS new Euro headquarters building coming along nicely. Foundation work now completed.

 

The EO's chat over lunch is of increased building in the city now that the Supreme court ruling has been filed away.  All they want is a stable situation, and now they've got it.  There's some interpretations yet to be resolved -- things like whether UK is allowed to talk to potential new trading partners immediately after 31Mar'17.  The governments might not be allowed to talk, but that sure as hell doesn't mean the companies aren't talking extensively already

[7by7]

On ‎08‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 8:36 AM, Khun Han said:

Just the remainer opinion. Times ahead are going to be fine (though I expect there will be a few blips that remainers will be all over like a rash). Just like the 'tough times' that were supposed to be upon us now never materialised.

 More correct to say that they have not materialised yet!

 

Everything depends upon the final deal reached; especially over the UK's access to the single market.

[Grouse]

Of course all the big hedge funds are laughing. What they hate is stability. Doesn't matter if thing are going up or down arbitrage ensures they will do well. 

 

Doubles all round!

[lungbing]

As they sell us more than we sell them, it's in their interest to keep trade moving, no matter what name you call it.

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, lungbing said:

As they sell us more than we sell them, it's in their interest to keep trade moving, no matter what name you call it.

More interesting to consider figures in percentages.

44% of UK exports are to other EU countries

8-17% of exports of other EU countries go to the UK.

UK Exports to the rest of the EU are worth about 13% of the UK's economy.

Exports from the rest of the EU to the UK are worth about 3-4% of the value of those economies taken as a whole..

[citybiker]

Which proved me wrong, as I was sure that MPs would insist on being able to amend any final agreement!

I've only briefly viewed some of the debates & amendments from other parties were clearly voted down.

Today's Daily Politics (09/02/17) made interesting viewing reference Labours attempt.

The unelected Lords (pro-Remainers) are the final hurdle prior to applying to Brussels for triggering Article 50...so still not completely obstacle free yet.


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[SheungWan]

12 hours ago, jpinx said:

Well -- a clever negotiator would be able to build in options for the house to pick over.  Even the commercial wheeler-dealers know how to do this, and -- given that most of Brexit is about numbers - it should not be too difficult.   EU needs to recognise that the "no deal" option is a lot worse for them than it is for UK.  EU members will have no benefits of any kind if it's a "no-deal" and will actually lose the deal *and* the income, whereas UK suddenly stops haemoragging hard cash and has the chance to settle into new deals where they like, without Brussels intervention. 

Well this and well that and rather naive to boot. The negotiations start here and there is no guarantee that the end will not be messy as these things often are. https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-09/u-k-s-may-has-reasons-to-worry-despite-her-brexit-law-victory?utm_content=brexit&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-facebook-brexit

 

[sandyf]

18 hours ago, jpinx said:

Well -- a clever negotiator would be able to build in options for the house to pick over.  Even the commercial wheeler-dealers know how to do this, and -- given that most of Brexit is about numbers - it should not be too difficult.   EU needs to recognise that the "no deal" option is a lot worse for them than it is for UK.  EU members will have no benefits of any kind if it's a "no-deal" and will actually lose the deal *and* the income, whereas UK suddenly stops haemoragging hard cash and has the chance to settle into new deals where they like, without Brussels intervention. 

"whereas UK suddenly stops haemoragging hard cash "

 

Brexit will replace one financial commitment for a much larger one. The cost of brexit will hang over the UK for years to come.

All this talk from TM about more money for the NHS is a previous commitment the plug has been pulled on any further funding, and social care funding has been laid at the door of local authorities. A rise in income tax is becoming inevitable but of course some time hence we will not have to pay the 0.6% of income tax that goes to the EU.

The interest on the national debt currently takes 5% of income tax and with that expected to rise from £1.725 trillion to £1.945 trillion(approx 12%) it will wipe out the saving on the EU contribution.

[jpinx]

11 hours ago, SheungWan said:

More interesting to consider figures in percentages.

44% of UK exports are to other EU countries

8-17% of exports of other EU countries go to the UK.

UK Exports to the rest of the EU are worth about 13% of the UK's economy.

Exports from the rest of the EU to the UK are worth about 3-4% of the value of those economies taken as a whole..

You would need to provide the source of those figures - they look hopelessly inaccurate.  Maybe your source only includes exports that are  "hardware"?

[jpinx]

6 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Well this and well that and rather naive to boot. The negotiations start here and there is no guarantee that the end will not be messy as these things often are. https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-09/u-k-s-may-has-reasons-to-worry-despite-her-brexit-law-victory?utm_content=brexit&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-facebook-brexit

 

That is a seriously flawed and biased article. Another attempt to de-rail the process everyone has agreed on already.  You are falling into the same arrogant, know-it-all group who think they have all the answers, but in reality are bluffing like mad and hiding behind overly-complicated analysis of the situation paid for by editors with an agenda.