May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[jpinx]

27 minutes ago, sandyf said:

"whereas UK suddenly stops haemoragging hard cash "

 

Brexit will replace one financial commitment for a much larger one. The cost of brexit will hang over the UK for years to come.

All this talk from TM about more money for the NHS is a previous commitment the plug has been pulled on any further funding, and social care funding has been laid at the door of local authorities. A rise in income tax is becoming inevitable but of course some time hence we will not have to pay the 0.6% of income tax that goes to the EU.

The interest on the national debt currently takes 5% of income tax and with that expected to rise from £1.725 trillion to £1.945 trillion(approx 12%) it will wipe out the saving on the EU contribution.

Where's the numbers Sandy?  How much will UK *not* have to pay, and how much will it cost UK to leave the EU?  The NHS etc are red-herring issues - they need fixing anyway - nothing to do with Brexit.  Annual figures will do nicely :)

[SheungWan]

45 minutes ago, jpinx said:

You would need to provide the source of those figures - they look hopelessly inaccurate.  Maybe your source only includes exports that are  "hardware"?

Fullfact.org which takes its stats from the ONS (the Office Of National Statistics) among others. Probably does look hopelessly inaccurate to those weaned on a diet of junk and hysterical websites.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

[SheungWan]

Sterling still under cloud of bearish calls: http://tinyurl.com/hbqdaes

 

 

 

[jpinx]

45 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Fullfact.org which takes its stats from the ONS (the Office Of National Statistics) among others. Probably does look hopelessly inaccurate to those weaned on a diet of junk and hysterical websites.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

You need to tone down your contemptuous hyperbole. 

 

From your source --

"...If you’re unclear which we’ve used when, we have used UK data whenever we have focused only on the UK’s exports or imports, and EU data where we focus only on the EU’s exports or imports. Where we make comparisons, we either use UK data only, or use both UK and EU data....."

So it appears that they mix and match the cross-border numbers as they want. I wonder what their agenda is?

 

...  more highly biased "fullfacts"...

https://fullfact.org/europe/do-half-uks-exports-go-europe/

"Half of everything we sell to the rest of the world we sell to Europe"

Britain Stronger In Europe, 9 November 2015

 

Edited February 10, 2017 by jpinx

[sandyf]

23 hours ago, jpinx said:

Where's the numbers Sandy?  How much will UK *not* have to pay, and how much will it cost UK to leave the EU?  The NHS etc are red-herring issues - they need fixing anyway - nothing to do with Brexit.  Annual figures will do nicely :)

The numbers are all available in the public domain, just do the homework and the maths.

The government have already slipped in a 2% rise on Insurance Premium Tax to start in June, people in the UK are only going to get poorer.

How do they fix what needs fixing when they are " haemoragging hard cash " in pursuit of brexit - more taxes?

[dick dasterdly]

On 2/10/2017 at 10:08 AM, jpinx said:

Where's the numbers Sandy?  How much will UK *not* have to pay, and how much will it cost UK to leave the EU?  The NHS etc are red-herring issues - they need fixing anyway - nothing to do with Brexit.  Annual figures will do nicely :)

And that's precisely the point.  There are (understandably) zero/few hard facts when it comes to the outcome of brexit.

 

On the other hand, there are numerous, biased 'opinions'.

 

We had to put up with this pre-referendum, and are now going to have to go through the same thing for the next couple of years as 'important' people and 'experts' continue to mis-represent opinion as fact.

 

As I said previously, its going to be a long two years....

[sandyf]

Fact or fiction.

Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, is set to demand a €57bn (£48bn) payment from the UK to the leave the bloc. 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/european-commission-agree-48-billion-brexit-latest-eu-divorce-bill-uk-a7573291.html

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Fact or fiction.

Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, is set to demand a €57bn (£48bn) payment from the UK to the leave the bloc. 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/european-commission-agree-48-billion-brexit-latest-eu-divorce-bill-uk-a7573291.html

I'm sure we all believe the EU is demanding 48bn sterling from the UK to leave the EU.

[jpinx]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Fact or fiction.

Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, is set to demand a €57bn (£48bn) payment from the UK to the leave the bloc. 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/european-commission-agree-48-billion-brexit-latest-eu-divorce-bill-uk-a7573291.html

The "fact" being quoted, in other words, is that Barnier is "going to demand £48bn,,"  There is no "fact" that UK will pay it.

Edited February 11, 2017 by jpinx

[SheungWan]

How to spot a populist (.....as if that was difficult observing the antics of the mr angry brexiteers on this thread...)

http://tinyurl.com/j5qohhb

 

 

[7by7]

3 hours ago, sandyf said:

Fact or fiction.

Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, is set to demand a €57bn (£48bn) payment from the UK to the leave the bloc. 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/european-commission-agree-48-billion-brexit-latest-eu-divorce-bill-uk-a7573291.html

 

Negotiaitions are always about compromise.

 

What is 'demanded' at the start of negotiations and what is agreed to at the end of negotiations are very rarely the same thing!

[citybiker]

Fact or fiction.
Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, is set to demand a €57bn (£48bn) payment from the UK to the leave the bloc. 
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/european-commission-agree-48-billion-brexit-latest-eu-divorce-bill-uk-a7573291.html

The EU can demand all it wants, Barnier was reported on Reuters that its the formula to be agreed rather than the final Brexit bill.

The UK may well still be financially liable during the Art 50 period however post the divorce Brussel's knows full well the likelihood of that figure being paid is purely optimistic let alone fantasy economics by a divided and deteriorated EU project.

Junker has also reportedly stated that he'll not seek another term in 2019, I'm sure many will drink to that.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[SheungWan]

13 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

And that's precisely the point.  There are (understandably) zero/few hard facts when it comes to the outcome of brexit.

 

On the other hand, there are numerous, biased 'opinions'.

 

We had to put up with this pre-referendum, and are now going to have to go through the same thing for the next couple of years as 'important' people and 'experts' continue to mis-represent opinion as fact.

 

As I said previously, its going to be a long two years....

The zero hard facts trope is very popular with the know-nothing crowd.

[SheungWan]

13 hours ago, sandyf said:

Fact or fiction.

Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, is set to demand a €57bn (£48bn) payment from the UK to the leave the bloc. 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/european-commission-agree-48-billion-brexit-latest-eu-divorce-bill-uk-a7573291.html

Apparently the Brexit bill is like paying for your round of drinks. This would be a problem concept for the forum hard line brexiteers who are like those singular guys on Soi Buakhaow nursing their one beer through the night and ready to throw a strop at the waitress who they suspect will interfere with their checkbin at the first opportunity: http://tinyurl.com/gpwx6tb

 

[Khun Han]

Even p1sshead Juncker's getting collywobbles:

 

http://news.sky.com/story/jean-claude-juncker-doubts-eu-unity-during-brexit-talks-10764130

 

So much for totally discredited former EU deep plant Sir Ivan Miller's claims of EU negotiating superiority.

[Khun Han]

43 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Apparently the Brexit bill is like paying for your round of drinks. This would be a problem concept for the forum hard line brexiteers who are like those singular guys on Soi Buakhaow nursing their one beer through the night and ready to throw a strop at the waitress who they suspect will interfere with their checkbin at the first opportunity: http://tinyurl.com/gpwx6tb

 

 

But the UK has bought more than it's fair share of 'drinks' already in the EU club. Why does it have to leave a huge 'bar tab' in order to move on to other 'drinking dens'?

[Khun Han]

11 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 

Negotiaitions are always about compromise.

 

What is 'demanded' at the start of negotiations and what is agreed to at the end of negotiations are very rarely the same thing!

 

I would expect the UK to agree to pay into a few 'noble' EU schemes totalling 3-5 billion a year for the duration of an agreed comfy access trade agreement. The EU is dreaming if it thinks it can get any more than this.

[sandyf]

18 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

And that's precisely the point.  There are (understandably) zero/few hard facts when it comes to the outcome of brexit.

 

On the other hand, there are numerous, biased 'opinions'.

 

We had to put up with this pre-referendum, and are now going to have to go through the same thing for the next couple of years as 'important' people and 'experts' continue to mis-represent opinion as fact.

 

As I said previously, its going to be a long two years....

You are certainly right about opinions. We had many on here of the opinion the Euro was worthless and now we have the USA accusing Germany of exploiting an undervalued Euro.

 

"For instance, late last month, Trump’s top trade adviser Peter Navarro accused Germany of currency exploitation. He said, Germany is using a “grossly undervalued” euro to “exploit” the US and its EU partners. The euro was like an “implicit Deutsche Mark” whose low valuation gave Germany an advantage over its main trading partners. "

https://financialtribune.com/articles/world-economy/59299/imf-says-still-premature-to-worry-about-currency-war

 

The UK takes 7.5 percent of Germany's exports but many of the brexit brigade are of the opinion that Germany and the EU cannot survive without the UK market, maybe they should think again.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/german-global-trade-surplus-at-record-high-in-2016-2017-02-09

 

[nontabury]

Came across this documentary,thought it might be of interest. From the BBC ( often accused of being Pro EU) by a Brussels based German reporter,interviewing politicians on both sides of the arguement. Although I do wonder on which planet the EU Brexit negotiator Guy Verhofstadt is living.

 

 

[jpinx]

31 minutes ago, nontabury said:

Came across this documentary,thought it might be of interest. From the BBC ( often accused of being Pro EU) by a Brussels based German reporter,interviewing politicians on both sides of the arguement. Although I do wonder on which planet the EU Brexit negotiator Guy Verhofstadt is living.

 

 

Compulsory viewing !!

[Grouse]

9 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

I would expect the UK to agree to pay into a few 'noble' EU schemes totalling 3-5 billion a year for the duration of an agreed comfy access trade agreement. The EU is dreaming if it thinks it can get any more than this.

This explains the situation nicely

 

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, nontabury said:

Came across this documentary,thought it might be of interest. From the BBC ( often accused of being Pro EU) by a Brussels based German reporter,interviewing politicians on both sides of the arguement. Although I do wonder on which planet the EU Brexit negotiator Guy Verhofstadt is living.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2017/02/09/brexit-battle-europe-hour-little-time-unpick-complex-subject/

 

The Telegraph gives in two stars. Too short, too shallow

 

At least it should shut up the fools who think the BBC is biased....

[uptheos]

21 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 

Negotiaitions are always about compromise.

 

What is 'demanded' at the start of negotiations and what is agreed to at the end of negotiations are very rarely the same thing!

What if the UK just walked away and never paid a dime.

I know that's just joshing, but what in practice could or

would the EU do about it, bearing in mind that quite a

few countries currently in the EU depend on us whether

we are in or out, although I guess we will be rogue traders

 

Edited February 12, 2017 by uptheos

[Srikcir]

16 minutes ago, Grouse said:

This explains the situation nicely

 

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit

Oh My Goodness - the European Commission will argue that Britain’s approval of the current budget, which runs until 2020, obliges it to cough up. That's a negotiating damper.

[jpinx]

6 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Oh My Goodness - the European Commission will argue that Britain’s approval of the current budget, which runs until 2020, obliges it to cough up. That's a negotiating damper.

Alarmist  obstructionists --  -- the sky is falling !!!!  

 

Art50 and the negotiations are designed to cover exactly this sort of topic as part of the package.  

[Srikcir]

1 minute ago, jpinx said:

 the sky is falling !!!!  

I don't think the sky is falling but there may be a heavy snowstorm when instead Springtime was predicted.

[pitrevie]

19 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Oh My Goodness - the European Commission will argue that Britain’s approval of the current budget, which runs until 2020, obliges it to cough up. That's a negotiating damper.

Not only that but there are a number of organizations that we will still want to be a part of when we leave, Europol is one such so we will be expected to pay our share. 

[nontabury]

10 minutes ago, pitrevie said:

Not only that but there are a number of organizations that we will still want to be a part of when we leave, Europol is one such so we will be expected to pay our share. 

 

     There'll be many such organizations, that the UK will be only to happy to continue with and therefore pay into. Unless you know otherwise.

[pitrevie]

4 minutes ago, nontabury said:

 

     There'll be many such organizations, that the UK will be only to happy to continue with and therefore pay into. Unless you know otherwise.

I thought that was the point I was making so this idea that we are going to walk away and there will be no bill to pay is pie in the sky. It isn't difficult to find comments such as pay them nothing so god only knows who is going to pay Farage's pension when we leave, but knowing Farage I fully expect him to forgo any more handouts from the hated EU.

[SheungWan]

9 minutes ago, pitrevie said:

I thought that was the point I was making so this idea that we are going to walk away and there will be no bill to pay is pie in the sky. It isn't difficult to find comments such as pay them nothing so god only knows who is going to pay Farage's pension when we leave, but knowing Farage I fully expect him to forgo any more handouts from the hated EU.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/nigel-farage-plans-pocket-his-84000-mep-salary-until-we-officially-quit-eu