May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[Orac]

It appears David Davis's "row of the summer" was actually a British summer lasting a few hours before capitulation. These negotiations could be over quicker than I thought and even done before TM loses her job in the next few weeks.

[goldenbrwn1]

Here's a well known prayer used in fellowship meetings such as AA and NA. 

 

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And wisdom to know the difference.

 

This maybe of some help for all the people struggling to get over brexit.??

[pitrevie]

15 hours ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

 

The 6 items below are not my original contribution.  It was from another person on an entirely different forum and I saved it because it really does summarise what has to be discussed from today onward.

1. The EU will not allow the UK to be in the Single Market unless we accept Freedom of Movement.
2.  The UK doesn't accept Freedom of Movement so we're NOT in the Single Market.  That was easy.
3.  Both the EU and UK are members of the WTO, so we already have a tariff agreement in place.  Average non-food WTO tariffs are 3%.  If the EU wants to charge more the UK will sue them in the WTO.
4.  If the EU want to charge tariffs on UK goods then EU law requires the Irish border to be a hard border.  This is 100% up to the EU and has nothing to do with the UK.
5.  The UK can agree to let EU citizens reside in the UK under UK law.
6.  The EU don't have the ability to guarantee the rights of UK citizens living in EU member states - that's the right of the member state, not the EU.  The UK must negotiate with each of the 27 separately.

Items 5 and 6 are significant.  The rights of citizens from all sides living in each others countries is an easy one and could be settled in the first couple of days negotiations.  Britain will continue to welcome SKILLED people whom we need to make up for the shortfall in British skilled workers.
Britain will continue to welcome retirees PROVIDED they can pay their way without having to go cap in hand for financial support from British taxpayers.
We expect that attitude to be reciprocal across all 27 member states.
BUT, freedom of movement by unskilled EU citizens who have nothing to offer British employers MUST stop immediately.
As for our right to trade with the rest of the world, the current customs union prevents us from doing that.  This is restrictive and undemocratic.  It has to go.
All that is left is the final settlement of whatever Britain might still owe the EU IN ADDITION to the membership contributions that will continue until we are officially OUT in 2019.  The EU should also be aware that they will owe Britain a goodly amount in reparation for our share in the value of new buildings, real estate and institutions which we have also contributed to over the years.

 

Puzzling since business leaders, the people at the sharp end appear to think there is a problem but according to this all we have to do is revert to WTO, so simple isn't it.

[goldenbrwn1]

12 minutes ago, pitrevie said:

Puzzling since business leaders, the people at the sharp end appear to think there is a problem but according to this all we have to do is revert to WTO, so simple isn't it.

Glad I could clear some of the brexit fog for you. Please hit the ?Like button to increase my reputation. 

[Grouse]

Deleted

Edited June 20, 2017 by Grouse

[pitrevie]

8 minutes ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

Glad I could clear some of the brexit fog for you. Please hit the ?Like button to increase my reputation. 

If anything you have increased it since I am now confused as to why the people who are at the sharp end, business leaders etc are worrying needlessly. However no deal any deal doesn't matter which makes the last election a whole waste of time. 

[SheungWan]

Keep an extremely keen eye on the Irish border issue. Hard Brexit kills it and the DUP walks. So, where does it leave us now? Interesting that the UK Govet has retreated on parallel Brexit terms/new trade agreement. Brexit first priority? One explanation is that pushing trade agreement down the road keeps the DUP onside and doesn't force the potential car crash. Note that the government is still talking with the DUP on what is agreed. Reminds me of the government talks with Nissan re their production plans. We never did get the detail on that one. And then there is Sinn Fein checking out the wallpaper at the House of Commons to keep the DUP from doing anything too weird for their liking. And then there is the UK government: can't just walk out and can't drag it out till March 2019 either. Sit back and watch the show.

[sandyf]

15 hours ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

 

The 6 items below are not my original contribution.  It was from another person on an entirely different forum and I saved it because it really does summarise what has to be discussed from today onward.

1. The EU will not allow the UK to be in the Single Market unless we accept Freedom of Movement.
2.  The UK doesn't accept Freedom of Movement so we're NOT in the Single Market.  That was easy.
3.  Both the EU and UK are members of the WTO, so we already have a tariff agreement in place.  Average non-food WTO tariffs are 3%.  If the EU wants to charge more the UK will sue them in the WTO.
4.  If the EU want to charge tariffs on UK goods then EU law requires the Irish border to be a hard border.  This is 100% up to the EU and has nothing to do with the UK.
5.  The UK can agree to let EU citizens reside in the UK under UK law.
6.  The EU don't have the ability to guarantee the rights of UK citizens living in EU member states - that's the right of the member state, not the EU.  The UK must negotiate with each of the 27 separately.

Items 5 and 6 are significant.  The rights of citizens from all sides living in each others countries is an easy one and could be settled in the first couple of days negotiations.  Britain will continue to welcome SKILLED people whom we need to make up for the shortfall in British skilled workers.
Britain will continue to welcome retirees PROVIDED they can pay their way without having to go cap in hand for financial support from British taxpayers.
We expect that attitude to be reciprocal across all 27 member states.
BUT, freedom of movement by unskilled EU citizens who have nothing to offer British employers MUST stop immediately.
As for our right to trade with the rest of the world, the current customs union prevents us from doing that.  This is restrictive and undemocratic.  It has to go.
All that is left is the final settlement of whatever Britain might still owe the EU IN ADDITION to the membership contributions that will continue until we are officially OUT in 2019.  The EU should also be aware that they will owe Britain a goodly amount in reparation for our share in the value of new buildings, real estate and institutions which we have also contributed to over the years.

 

Some point are completely wrong and many are dubious to say the least.

 

" Both the EU and UK are members of the WTO, so we already have a tariff agreement in place."

The second part is wrong, although the UK is still a member of the WTO there is no tariff profile in place, it was removed when the UK came under the EU tariff profile. Simplest option is that the EU profile is copied to the UK and approved by the WTO membership.

 

"As for our right to trade with the rest of the world, the current customs union prevents us from doing that."

This is wrong, a customs union could be maintained. It is being a member of the EU that prevents trade negotiation by the UK, the EU acts on behalf of all EU member states. Turkey is in a customs union with the EU.

 

" If the EU want to charge tariffs on UK goods then EU law requires the Irish border to be a hard border."

Not entirely correct, whatever the outcome the border between the Republic and NI will become an EU external border and come under the jurisdiction of FRONTEX.

 

"The EU should also be aware that they will owe Britain a goodly amount"

Totally wrong. The EU are perfectly aware of the reimbursements, provisional estimates in the order of 25 - 40 Billion euros. Nobody wants to acknowledge the  reimbursements only highlight the estimated debt. TM in particular wants to keep it quiet, make her look good when the final figure is about half of what is being reported.

 

 

[sandyf]

Last night I watched Teresa v Boris, the dramatised documentary on the Tory party leadership election.

 

These are the people supposed to be running the country and dealing with brexit, the mind boggles. As the Guardian put it.

 

"You want irony? You got it. May has a reputation “for a safe pair of hands, and for competence” says her adviser. “She reaches a conclusion; it doesn’t matter what it is, she makes a decision and that’s it.” And then dramatised Williamson adds: “The one thing I can promise you is that Theresa will not be holding an early election.” Maybe they slipped that one in, as a late addition, for extra fun. It is a lot of fun anyway. Until you suddenly remember that it is not The Thick of It, it is our government. And that these people are running the country. At the time of writing, anyway …"

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2017/jun/19/theresa-vs-boris-how-may-became-pm-review-a-timely-mix-of-treachery-and-mayhem

[Khun Han]

13 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Keep an extremely keen eye on the Irish border issue. Hard Brexit kills it and the DUP walks. So, where does it leave us now? Interesting that the UK Govet has retreated on parallel Brexit terms/new trade agreement. Brexit first priority? One explanation is that pushing trade agreement down the road keeps the DUP onside and doesn't force the potential car crash. Note that the government is still talking with the DUP on what is agreed. Reminds me of the government talks with Nissan re their production plans. We never did get the detail on that one. And then there is Sinn Fein checking out the wallpaper at the House of Commons to keep the DUP from doing anything too weird for their liking. And then there is the UK government: can't just walk out and can't drag it out till March 2019 either. Sit back and watch the show.

 

I think you realise that brexit is dead in the water, and that we are only going through the motions until it's time to usher in the ten month Corbyn government. which will  be all touchy feely about progress on everything under thev sun, whilst it's being completely discredited by the same people who put it in power, because New Tory remembered who it's friends are.

[evadgib]

Secretary of State David Davis' statement following the opening of EU exit negotiations

[goldenbrwn1]

6 minutes ago, evadgib said:

Secretary of State David Davis' statement following the opening of EU exit negotiations

How dare you post a link to an optimistic media report on brexit!

[Orac]

How dare you post a link to an optimistic media report on brexit!

It is the UK govt website so, though a form of media, about as one sided and far from independent as you can get.

[goldenbrwn1]

5 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

It is the UK govt website so, though a form of media, about as one sided and far from independent as you can get.

 

I would be inclined to believe it more then, unless you could point me in the direction of any impartial mainstream  media links concerning brexit. ?

Edited June 20, 2017 by goldenbrwn1

[Orac]

I would be inclined to believe it more then, unless you could point me in the direction of any impartial mainstream  media links concerning brexit. [emoji106]

Very little impartial media out there so you need to read from several sources to get an idea of what is going on.

I must apologise for commenting on the govt article since I didn't read it prior to my post however, now having done so, I can't see anything in it that could be classed as information that isn't obvious or already known.

The one thing that is not mentioned is that the UK has agreed to the EU requirement of discussing exit before talk of future arrangements being made, something David Davis himself said would be 'the row of the summer' a month or so ago. If this has been agreed as many media sources have reported then why isn't it in the article?


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[goldenbrwn1]

2 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Very little impartial media out there so you need to read from several sources to get an idea of what is going on.

I must apologise for commenting on the govt article since I didn't read it prior to my post however, now having done so, I can't see anything in it that could be classed as information that isn't obvious or already known.

The one thing that is not mentioned is that the UK has agreed to the EU requirement of discussing exit before talk of future arrangements being made, something David Davis himself said would be 'the row of the summer' a month or so ago. If this has been agreed as many media sources have reported then why isn't it in the article?


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

That is true from both sides of the fence with the mainstream media these days. Not sure why the climb down hasn't been mentioned on the arrangements but maybe this is the signal of a similar climb down for the EU on something, who knows. But it's good to hear the negotiations have started and that there is some cooling of heads on both sides. 

[Orac]

That is true from both sides of the fence with the mainstream media these days. Not sure why the climb down hasn't been mentioned on the arrangements but maybe this is the signal of a similar climb down for the EU on something, who knows. But it's good to hear the negotiations have started and that there is some cooling of heads on both sides. 

You won't like it but here is a Guardian piece on how yesterday went as a balance to the govt article - truth will be somewhere in the middle no doubt.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/19/a-frazzled-david-davis-takes-england-to-a-3-0-defeat-in-the-first-round?CMP=share_btn_tw

[goldenbrwn1]

32 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

You won't like it but here is a Guardian piece on how yesterday went as a balance to the govt article - truth will be somewhere in the middle no doubt.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/19/a-frazzled-david-davis-takes-england-to-a-3-0-defeat-in-the-first-round?CMP=share_btn_tw

 

Barnier, though, appeared remarkably unbothered. Lol, I don't think Barnier has ever looked bothered about anything tbh. And tbh I'm not sure which media outlet is worse; 'the Guardian' ; 'Independent ' or 'The daily Express and Mail'. A total let down to the public with their biased reporting on brexit. 

Edited June 20, 2017 by goldenbrwn1

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

I think you realise that brexit is dead in the water, and that we are only going through the motions until it's time to usher in the ten month Corbyn government. which will  be all touchy feely about progress on everything under thev sun, whilst it's being completely discredited by the same people who put it in power, because New Tory remembered who it's friends are.

I'm inclined to agree that brexit is likely "dead in the water" now.

 

I was suprised when (tepid remainer) May started talking 'tough' - but 'talks' are now back on course for 'the establishment'.

 

It will be interesting to see how they 'sell' this to the electorate - retaining some of the most disliked parts of EU policy, whilst still paying as much (or nearly as much).

 

Probably by constant reports of UK 'meltdown' - with agreement that the UK has CONTROL (in the UK) when it comes to EU labour/social policies.  The worst of all possible worlds for the ordinary brit.

 

Edit - I'm pretty sure it will be another tory that comes to power, not Corbyn.

Edited June 20, 2017 by dick dasterdly

[Orac]

Barnier, though, appeared remarkably unbothered. Lol, I don't think Barnier has ever looked bothered about anything tbh. And tbh I'm not sure which media outlet is worse; 'the Guardian' ; 'Independent ' or 'The daily Express and Mail'. A total let down to the public with their biased reporting on brexit. 

The Mail article on the first day of talks is not positive either:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4617284/Johnson-hails-opportunities-Brexit-talks-start.html

As for the Express, I can't find an article on their website yet from after the talks/press conference and only ones from before it which speaks volumes.

On the whole, MSM seems pretty clear that things didn't go well.

[dick dasterdly]

Excellent....  BBC now reporting that Davies was 'holding onto the handshake as hard as he could'  (literally) with Barnier.....

[nontabury]

27 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

I'm inclined to agree that brexit is likely "dead in the water" now.

 

I was suprised when (tepid remainer) May started talking 'tough' - but 'talks' are now back on course for 'the establishment'.

 

It will be interesting to see how they 'sell' this to the electorate - retaining some of the most disliked parts of EU policy, whilst still paying as much (or nearly as much).

 

Probably by constant reports of UK 'meltdown' - with agreement that the UK has CONTROL (in the UK) when it comes to EU labour/social policies.  The worst of all possible worlds for the ordinary brit.

 

Edit - I'm pretty sure it will be another tory that comes to power, not Corbyn.

As I've said previously, we've been screwed. The same as what happened to the electorate in Holland,France and the Irish Republic when they also went against the establishment. But all is not lost, even though remainder May is prepared to fly the white flag, I don't think the British people will be so easily fobbed off with a retreat.

[dick dasterdly]

1 minute ago, nontabury said:

As I've said previously, we've been screwed. The same as what happened to the electorate in Holland,France and the Irish Republic when they also went against the establishment. But all is not lost, even though remainder May is prepared to fly the white flag, I don't think the British people will be so easily fobbed off with a retreat.

I wish I had your confidence....

 

2 years of propaganda insisting that the uk is headed for catastrophe, plus assurance that agreements have been reached ensuring brit politicians have control over uk law.....

 

They'll have a hard time explaining why the UK is still paying as much, but I'm sure they'll pretend this is not the case.

[mommysboy]

4 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

I think you realise that brexit is dead in the water, and that we are only going through the motions until it's time to usher in the ten month Corbyn government. which will  be all touchy feely about progress on everything under thev sun, whilst it's being completely discredited by the same people who put it in power, because New Tory remembered who it's friends are.

"off planet"

[mommysboy]

6 hours ago, Orac said:

It appears David Davis's "row of the summer" was actually a British summer lasting a few hours before capitulation. These negotiations could be over quicker than I thought and even done before TM loses her job in the next few weeks.

We'll show those Euro clots who's boss.......NOT.

 

BLOWHARDS.

[AlexRich]

7 hours ago, pitrevie said:

Puzzling since business leaders, the people at the sharp end appear to think there is a problem but according to this all we have to do is revert to WTO, so simple isn't it.

 

The output of a simple mind. Business leaders hate it ... and for good reason, it will adversely impact the economy as pro-Brexit ex Chancellor Nigel Lawson confirmed recently.

[pitrevie]

3 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

The output of a simple mind. Business leaders hate it ... and for good reason, it will adversely impact the economy as pro-Brexit ex Chancellor Nigel Lawson confirmed recently.

Yep another who wants his country back but lives in France.

[AlexRich]

Phil Hammond states that "people did not vote to become poorer and less secure". Phil is obviously not a member of the Thai Visa discussion forum ... on here we're heading for the land of cake and eating it! That's what overdoing the Chang does for you!

[AlexRich]

2 minutes ago, pitrevie said:

Yep another who wants his country back but lives in France.

The one's who are so strident about it are not affected by it ... 

[Grouse]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-dup-theresa-may-legal-challenge-breach-good-friday-agreement-arlene-foster-a7798941.html

 

What are coffin nails made out of?