May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[nontabury]

39 minutes ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

You sound pleased.  What if the UK comes through unscathed and keeps on growing ? Even though the uk economy is still growing ( albeit a bit slower), would you be sad? Would it make your life seem fulfilled if the UK economy fell through the floor and it then came crawling back to the EU with cap in hand?  Oh and that moody statement is over a week old and who the hell takes any notice of them ratings agencies as serious as they did pre 2009 anyway. 

 

I just find it hard to believe that people seem to love the idea of the UK failing and its economy to fall into the abyss.  What are yours and others on here actual benefits for this scenario ?

When you live in a shoebox on a Soi in Asoke, you will clutch at any piece of straw,to get your point over.

[mommysboy]

7 minutes ago, perthperson said:

Only the extremely naive believe there is no plan or that the detail of that plan should be debated with the public.........

Gullible!  Always leave wallet at home when you go out.

[perthperson]

Just now, mommysboy said:

Gullible!  Always leave wallet at home when you go out.

Clearly you never negotiated anything outside a bar.............................

[aright]

11 minutes ago, perthperson said:

Only the extremely naive believe there is no plan or that the detail of that plan should be debated with the public.........

In politics, nothing happens by accident, if it happens you can bet it was planned that way.

Franklin D Roosevelt

[mommysboy]

1 minute ago, perthperson said:

Clearly you never negotiated anything outside a bar.............................

I certainly wouldn't negotiate anything inside a bar!!!

 

But there may be a plan: get them to agree to every thing we want, and if they don't crash out.  When someone mentioned a plan I assumed it had to mean something intelligent and credible.

 

 

[goldenbrwn1]

22 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Ah yes, smelling of flowers.... Breaking news: UK public finances fail stress tests set for banks says Britain's independent fiscal watchdog the OBR (Office for Budgetary Responsibility)

Excellent news..just what we are all hoping for..fingers crossed and the UK may collapse..

 

Edited July 13, 2017 by goldenbrwn1

[Grouse]

4 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

If I read correctly the chart that grouse linked to it looks like they would have had 13-14 seats. Not exactly huge.

With 650 seats, there's plenty of room for all including nut cases such as the DUP and UKIP and my party of one!

[Grouse]

3 hours ago, pitrevie said:

well there we can agree to differ and I appreciate the problems that have been experienced with the single currency but if you have a single market then a single currency makes sense. In fact I was watching a German Industrialist (that should annoy Flustered) who was making that very point about working with the single currency.

My brain is not big enough to work out how a common currency should work; and I had a size 7 1/2 cap at school.

 

Great idea but.....

 

Maybe a more rigid ERM with adjustments every 5 years? No, time for a beer

[pitrevie]

3 hours ago, Flustered said:

Again, I actually agree with you.

 

A countries ability to re/de value it's currency is a very powerful economic tool.

 

While labour rates, taxes, benefits, work ethics etc are all different, monetary union is impossible.

 

 

Really since we have had that ability all this time how come that this powerful economic tool hasn't been translated into the sort of economic progress we have seen with the German economy since WW2. When Germany had the DM it became the most powerful economy in Europe and since apparently losing the ability to re/de value its currency it still continues as the most powerful economy in Europe. Oh I forgot we mustn't express admiration for the Germans. 

[Grouse]

3 hours ago, Flustered said:

Again, I actually agree with you.

 

A countries ability to re/de value it's currency is a very powerful economic tool.

 

While labour rates, taxes, benefits, work ethics etc are all different, monetary union is impossible.

 

 

Floating exchange rates, independent central banks and no capital controls is the way to go. Devaluation is a race to the bottom. I grew up during high inflation and nothing made sense. Borrow as much as possible and let inflation clear your debts!

[beautifulthailand99]

1 hour ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

You sound pleased.  What if the UK comes through unscathed and keeps on growing ? Even though the uk economy is still growing ( albeit a bit slower), would you be sad? Would it make your life seem fulfilled if the UK economy fell through the floor and it then came crawling back to the EU with cap in hand?  Oh and that moody statement is over a week old and who the hell takes any notice of them ratings agencies as serious as they did pre 2009 anyway. 

 

I just find it hard to believe that people seem to love the idea of the UK failing and its economy to fall into the abyss.  What are yours and others on here actual benefits for this scenario ?

What if I a butcher have a go at doing brain surgery then - I'm used to cutting up animals and handy with a knife what could possibly go wrong ?

 

Less of a scenario and becoming more of a given. Just because you beleive something to be true doesn't make it true. The normal meek minded head of the NAO describes the customs issues on Brexit as a potential horror show. Mandarin's language to ministers just doesn't get stronger than that. Euratom , nurse recruitment down 97% ,  a million able bodied workers getting ready to leave , pound rinsed and prices rising, Departments starting to try to negotiate piecemeal important regulatory issues independently of the Brexit dept , banks looking to leave , European Medicines Agency already moving out , European capitals having 'beauty contests' to lure away some of our 'crown jewels' , inward investment into the car industry down 70% , expats in Eu abroad uncertain future / immigration status / healthcare. Departments needing the best part of 30,000 staff to do this properly , the Good Friday Agreement and the NI border , Gibratar , a Great Repeal bill in jeopardy cos I strong and stable PM turned out to be nothing of the sort - folowed by a Corbyn resurgence. But hey we will have control back and masters of our own destiny and have no more bent banana nonsense oh and the lovely blue passports so it's not all bad.

 

The biggest act of self-inflicted harm on the UK since Suez . I don't blane the buyers of the lies though it those that sold them who we should  reserve our anger and contempt Farage / Cameron / Johnston they are the real villians in all of this.

[aright]

I think the German economy was more driven by efficiency than its currency. A British worker has to work until Friday afternoon to output what a German worker does by Thursday afternoon.

[Grouse]

3 hours ago, soalbundy said:

The head of the national audit office Sir Amyas Morse has said that the government could fall apart like a chocolate orange because of lack of political guidance in the brexit departments, they are being left on their own to decide priorities, there is no energetic political leadership. When David Davis was asked to provide a plan for how leaving the EU would work he couldn't provide one. It is, he said, only just starting to click into governments awareness how complex the task is, there is no unified approach.

Good man Morse; I love his Jag!

[goldenbrwn1]

7 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

What if I a butcher have a go at doing brain surgery then - I'm used to cutting up animals and handy with a knife what could possibly go wrong ?

 

Less of a scenario and becoming more of a given. Just because you beleive something to be true doesn't make it true. The normal meek minded head of the NAO describes the customs issues on Brexit as a potential horror show. Mandarin's language to ministers just doesn't get stronger than that. Euratom , nurse recruitment down 97% ,  a million able bodied workers getting ready to leave , pound rinsed and prices rising, Departments starting to try to negotiate piecemeal important regulatory issues independently of the Brexit dept , banks looking to leave , European Medicines Agency already moving out , European capitals having 'beauty contests' to lure away some of our 'crown jewels' , inward investment into the car industry down 70% , expats in Eu abroad uncertain future / immigration status / healthcare. Departments needing the best part of 30,000 staff to do this properly , the Good Friday Agreement and the NI border , Gibratar , a Great Repeal bill in jeopardy cos I strong and stable PM turned out to be nothing of the sort - folowed by a Corbyn resurgence. But hey we will have control back and masters of our own destiny and have no more bent banana nonsense oh and the lovely blue passports so it's not all bad.

 

The biggest act of self-inflicted harm on the UK since Suez . I don't blane the buyers of the lies though it those that sold them who we should  reserve our anger and contempt Farage / Cameron / Johnston they are the real villians in all of this.

I'm not sure where you are going with this. I take it you were a remainer? ?

[beautifulthailand99]

3 minutes ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

I'm not sure where you are going with this. I take it you were a remainer? ?

Of course , it is never too late to step back from the abyss. There was a good reason why anybody with any detailed knowledge of complex processes in a complex developed country was a remainer. When I was a kid I used to love taking complicated things to pieces and then could never put them back together again. That's where we are the whole shebang is starting to fall apart , and our leaders in the majority know it but are too pig-headed or impotent to say hey lets have another look at this. It's not as easy as we thought and the risk and developing clusterF33k are becoming acutely apparent. It not about being a remoaner it's about being a realist and caring about our country and it's people but also sad and angry that the whole things is starting to spiral out of control. One thing's for sure if our economy and the pound tanks further then any retirees in LOS have better have a good financial cushion to take the pain. Because if what I fear is going to happen Britain out of the EU will hardly be of any comfort in your ageing penury.

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

You sound pleased.  What if the UK comes through unscathed and keeps on growing ? Even though the uk economy is still growing ( albeit a bit slower), would you be sad? Would it make your life seem fulfilled if the UK economy fell through the floor and it then came crawling back to the EU with cap in hand?  Oh and that moody statement is over a week old and who the hell takes any notice of them ratings agencies as serious as they did pre 2009 anyway. 

 

I just find it hard to believe that people seem to love the idea of the UK failing and its economy to fall into the abyss.  What are yours and others on here actual benefits for this scenario ?

You miss the point. If you're going to take risk, there has to be an upside. The bigger the risk....

 

Now from that GDP volume chain graph I posted earlier, we've been doing pretty well for several decades (the benefits have not been fairly shared I grant you). 

 

That being the case, it is a big risk to break away from this proven performance. So where's the upside? The huge upside to offset the huge risk? Well where is it? WHERE?

 

There isn't one. With a fair wind we might end up only slightly worse off. Right now ALL the indicators are negative. 

 

We wont get a better deal with the EU than we have now. Better to stay and manage migration better and improve administrative efficiency! That's it! By jingo! Why didn't I think of it before? Let's offer to set a department of Adminstrative Affairs!!

[beautifulthailand99]

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

You miss the point. If you're going to take risk, there has to be an upside. The bigger the risk....

 

Now from that GDP volume chain graph I posted earlier, we've been doing pretty well for several decades (the benefits have not been fairly shared I grant you). 

 

That being the case, it is a big risk to break away from this proven performance. So where's the upside? The huge upside to offset the huge risk? Well where is it? WHERE?

 

There isn't one. With a fair wind we might end up only slightly worse off. Right now ALL the indicators are negative. 

 

We wont get a better deal with the EU than we have now. Better to stay and manage migration better and improve administrative efficiency! That's it! By jingo! Why didn't I think of it before? Let's offer to set a department of Adminstrative Affairs!!

Where can I vote you in !

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, aright said:

In a nutshell. Why do so many remainers try to justify their vote by preaching they hope Brexit is a complete disaster.

I know Brexit is a disasterous decision in the same way that I know Santa Claus, the Tooth Fairy and god do not exist. 

 

I DO NOT wish the UK to do badly but I am sick of decades of crap decisions and I am envious of the better decision making of some other countries I could mention.

 

It is NOT too late to ditch this Brexit folly.

Edited July 13, 2017 by Grouse

[goldenbrwn1]

2 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Of course , it is never too late to step back from the abyss. There was a good reason why anybody with any detailed knowledge of complex processes in a complex developed country was a remainer. When I was a kid I used to love taking complicated things to pieces and then could never put them back together again. That's where we are the whole shebang is starting to fall apart , and our leaders in the majority know it but are too pig-headed or impotent to say hey lets have another look at this. It's not as easy as we thought and the risk and developing clusterF33k are becoming acutely apparent. It not about being a remoaner it's about being a realist and caring about our country and it's people but also sad and angry that the whole things is starting to spiral out of control. One thing's for sure if our economy and the pound tanks further then any retirees in LOS have better have a good financial cushion to take the pain. Because if what I fear is going to happen Britain out of the EU will hardly be of any comfort in your ageing penury.

At the end of the day, the EU wants a strong stable UK as do we them. I'm no economist but surely if inflation carries on wouldn't the BOE be more inclined to raise rates? Then giving strength to the £?  And surely the central bank would prefer to get interests rates higher soon rather than later so as to deal with another economic shock or depression like that of 09? 

 

Im going to stay sane on brexit maybe even at times optimistic and read the express every time straight after every guardian read.

 

 

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

Lots of positive or non negative fact led links or posts also on brexit if you could bring yourself to read them as to maybe get some balance.  So how would you feel if in 2 or so years time the UK came out of it smelling of flowers?  

 

I know your first post response might be '2 or so years am I mad ect ect' . But seriously  would you be ok with a prosperous UK outside of the EU?  Btw I'm not some nutty flag waving hard brexiteer , I voted remain and would prefer a can't we all just get along scenario playing out , and a nice smooth soft brexit. But I just dont get the smugness I feel from hard remainer people on here every time there's a negative new story for the UK. 

The limp, semi-, possible, maybe upside does NOT justify the massive, real downside.

 

Take my advice, don't take up gambling!

[goldenbrwn1]

Just now, Grouse said:

The limp, semi-, possible, maybe upside does NOT justify the massive, real downside.

 

Take my advice, don't take up gambling!

Ummmmm that kinda works both ways mate tbf...

[Grouse]

Just now, goldenbrwn1 said:

Ummmmm that kinda works both ways mate tbf...

Not according to my wife ?

[nauseus]

38 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

What if I a butcher have a go at doing brain surgery then - I'm used to cutting up animals and handy with a knife what could possibly go wrong ?

 

Less of a scenario and becoming more of a given. Just because you beleive something to be true doesn't make it true. The normal meek minded head of the NAO describes the customs issues on Brexit as a potential horror show. Mandarin's language to ministers just doesn't get stronger than that. Euratom , nurse recruitment down 97% ,  a million able bodied workers getting ready to leave , pound rinsed and prices rising, Departments starting to try to negotiate piecemeal important regulatory issues independently of the Brexit dept , banks looking to leave , European Medicines Agency already moving out , European capitals having 'beauty contests' to lure away some of our 'crown jewels' , inward investment into the car industry down 70% , expats in Eu abroad uncertain future / immigration status / healthcare. Departments needing the best part of 30,000 staff to do this properly , the Good Friday Agreement and the NI border , Gibratar , a Great Repeal bill in jeopardy cos I strong and stable PM turned out to be nothing of the sort - folowed by a Corbyn resurgence. But hey we will have control back and masters of our own destiny and have no more bent banana nonsense oh and the lovely blue passports so it's not all bad.

 

The biggest act of self-inflicted harm on the UK since Suez . I don't blane the buyers of the lies though it those that sold them who we should  reserve our anger and contempt Farage / Cameron / Johnston they are the real villians in all of this.

 

A big list, not very balanced of course, but to be expected from such a one-sided view. However it shows what a tangled rats maze the EU has become - that's not accidental but by design - it is so difficult for any member to exit easily. Best thing Cameron ever did was to set the stage for the way out.

[Grouse]

47 minutes ago, aright said:

I think the German economy was more driven by efficiency than its currency. A British worker has to work until Friday afternoon to output what a German worker does by Thursday afternoon.

More to do with long term planning and long term investment. This ridiculous short-termism and the blind pursuit of bloody "shareholder value" has hollowed out American and UK industry. The Germans do things differently.

[beautifulthailand99]

The One Armed  Brexit Bandit

 

It's like this you have a sore arm and so you go to the doctor - he doesn't know what's the problem so he refers you to the hospital.  The doctor at the hospital says it could be this or it could be this we need to do some more tests. Whilst waiting for the tests the doctor comes back to you and says Mr Brexit - sorry to have to tell you we've had a vote in the canteen , everybody could have a vote - the cleaners , janitors , girls in the canteen as well as the doctors and I'm afraid by a very small majority the vote has been won to cut your arm off. Because that will solve the problem of your sore arm.

 

Well first <deleted> , no you are not taking my arm off , it  was only sore not gangrenous or anything so you protest. Doctor says I know we wanted to do tests and such like , none of my medical collegueas would have wanted amputation but I'm afarid it's out of our hands now , we lost the vote in the canteen because none of us really beleived the electorate would vote for such an outcome. Any you have no choice in the matter now , you better get ready for it. We will try and help you live your life without an arm - thousands are like that so it's very doable. You protest for a few more days but they aint budging the arm - you will have to leave it behind. No more snooker - driving will be difficult , hand shandies more problematic and hey the majority of folk in the canteen at the time (it was a Sunday so they were a lot missing who said they would have voted to keep it but it was out of their hands now) voted for it  so it was the armless will of the people.

 

So you get yourself ready to lose your arm - there's no alternative you will just have to live without it . Some of the armless supporters say cheer up mate you might grow a third leg or a unicorn's horn. You could with enough will and practice get into the Paralympics.

 

(Oh and I forgot when the time came to remove the arm the hospital was right out of anaesthetic so it was done with a bottle of whisky , a gum shield and tied down to a couch. My god did it hurt.)

 

Anway you have a good other one and the soreness has gone now so it must have done some good. And I've almost forgotten what it was like to have two arms , almost but not quite. It was quite a pain typing with one finger but hey ho will of the people and all that and would want to remoan.

[goldenbrwn1]

Heres one for all the neg heads concerning brexit...it's out in Thailand on the 20th ..get and watch it ....you never know you might grow a pair. ?  

 

 

 

 

[nauseus]

34 minutes ago, Grouse said:

You miss the point. If you're going to take risk, there has to be an upside. The bigger the risk....

 

Now from that GDP volume chain graph I posted earlier, we've been doing pretty well for several decades (the benefits have not been fairly shared I grant you). 

 

That being the case, it is a big risk to break away from this proven performance. So where's the upside? The huge upside to offset the huge risk? Well where is it? WHERE?

 

There isn't one. With a fair wind we might end up only slightly worse off. Right now ALL the indicators are negative. 

 

We wont get a better deal with the EU than we have now. Better to stay and manage migration better and improve administrative efficiency! That's it! By jingo! Why didn't I think of it before? Let's offer to set a department of Adminstrative Affairs!!

We should not expect a better deal with the EU than we have now but the EU has already demonstrated its migration management skills quite enough TYVM!

Edited July 13, 2017 by nauseus
wording

[soalbundy]

7 minutes ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

At the end of the day, the EU wants a strong stable UK as do we them. I'm no economist but surely if inflation carries on wouldn't the BOE be more inclined to raise rates? Then giving strength to the £?  And surely the central bank would prefer to get interests rates higher soon rather than later so as to deal with another economic shock or depression like that of 09? 

 

Im going to stay sane on brexit maybe even at times optimistic and read the express every time straight after every guardian read.

 

 

It is difficult to see how the BOE can raise rates although normal logic would say it is needed. There are too many 'just about managing' at the moment especially in London where nurses rely on food banks and in some parts rents have reached 80% of disposable income. Production is falling according to a report a few days ago and construction has stagnated so house prices are rising making a mortgage even more unattainable even without increased rates, the pound has fallen so food prices climb, if rates were to rise the pound would strengthen but considering all the other difficulties and unrest that would ensue probably not by much, Carney is between a rock and a hard place,damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.

[soalbundy]

9 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

A big list, not very balanced of course, but to be expected from such a one-sided view. However it shows what a tangled rats maze the EU has become - that's not accidental but by design - it is so difficult for any member to exit easily. Best thing Cameron ever did was to set the stage for the way out.

He didn't want out, it was an accident, May didn't want out, probably still doesn't but that was the price for being PM

[Grouse]

I wouldn't bring up Dunkirk in a Brexit debate! 

 

How about out a bit of Henry V?