Trump win could give Israel freer hand with Palestinians

[webfact]

Trump win could give Israel freer hand with Palestinians 
VIVIAN SALAMA, Associated Press

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump's presidential victory has dimmed hopes for reviving the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and analysts say Israel may be given carte blanche from his administration.

 

American presidents have long struck a delicate balance in the conflict, stressing the close U.S. friendship with Israel and lavishing the Jewish state with aid. But recent presidents also have tried to negotiate, and they have called out Israel for actions seen as undermining peace efforts, such as expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank.

 

Trump's role can't be easily predicted.

 

A foreign policy novice, the billionaire businessman takes pride in his deal-making skills and says he'd love the challenge of negotiating a Mideast agreement. He told The New York Times on Tuesday that it "would be such a great achievement." He said his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, an observant Jew and a close adviser, may help make that happen.

 

Last December, Trump told The Associated Press that he wanted to be "very neutral" and try to get both sides together. But his tone became decidedly more pro-Israel as the campaign progressed. He has spoken disparagingly of Palestinians, saying they have been "taken over" by or are condoning militant groups. Some of his top aides challenge the legitimacy of Palestinian demands for a state and have claimed that the Palestinians are a made-up people.

 

That has cast doubt on whether he would ever question Israeli actions or even try to serve as a neutral broker.

 

"Trump's administration may take a totally hands-off approach," said Yousef Munayyer, a political analyst and executive director of the U.S. Campaign for Palestinian Rights. "Israel would have free rein to dominate the Palestinians forever and ever if there is no external involvement."

 

David Makovsky of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said the volatility of the Middle East and of American political parties after a grueling campaign have made "the conclusion of a two-state solution very unlikely."

 

Some senior Israeli officials share that view.

 

Cabinet Minister Naftali Bennett, head of the pro-settler Jewish Home party, said after Trump's Nov. 8 election that "the era of a Palestinian state are over." Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman suggested Israel could cut a deal with Trump that allowed expanded construction in major settlements while freezing building in isolated parts of the West Bank. That would be a sharp break from Obama administration policy.

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been more cautious, congratulating Trump but giving no indication on whether he will now change his policies.

 

Relations have been tense between President Barack Obama and Netanyahu. Trump has accused Obama of putting undue pressure on Israel.

 

But Obama has hardly cast off Israel. In September, the U.S. signed its largest-ever security agreement, giving the Israeli military $38 billion over 10 years. While Obama pressured Israel into a partial settlement freeze in 2009 and 2010, settlements continue to expand.

 

According to the anti-settlement watchdog group Peace Now, there were 3,915 housing starts during Obama's term as of the end of 2015. By the time Obama leaves office, that number will almost certainly surpass the 4,191 units started during George W. Bush's presidency.

 

Previous administrations have given varying amounts of leeway to Israel on the issue of settlements, but also have pushed for the two-state solution. President Bill Clinton helped broker the Oslo Accord, attempting to establish a framework to resolve the conflict. President George W. Bush launched a plan that endorsed an independent Palestinian state existing peacefully alongside Israel. Both approaches fizzled, and two rounds of peace talks during the Obama years quickly collapsed.

 

Trump criticized Palestinians when he spoke in March at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference in Washington. He said "half of the population of Palestine has been taken over by the Palestinian ISIS and Hamas, and the other half refuses to confront the first half." Hamas, an Islamic militant group, controls the Gaza Strip. ISIS, an acronym for the Islamic State group, is not a major force in the Palestinian territories.

 

One of Trump's top advisers on Israel, Jason Greenblatt, said in a recent interview that the president-elect doesn't think West Bank settlements should be condemned or pose an "obstacle to peace." Greenblatt, chief legal officer and executive vice president at the Trump Organization, was interviewed on Israel's Army Radio.

 

Trump has echoed the decades-old promise of past presidential candidates that he would move the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. That would signal U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital, a move that would infuriate Palestinians, who claim the eastern sector of the city, captured by Israel in 1967, as their capital. Presidents have not followed through on the pledge.

 

Some Trump advisers and supporters have been dismissive of the Palestinian cause. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani told the Israeli American Council in September that the U.S. should "reject the whole notion of a two-state solution in Israel."

 

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and casino mogul Sheldon Adelson both say the Palestinians are an invented people. John Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said in 2014 that a two-state solution "would inevitably lead to a terror state on the other side of the border with Israel."

 

Jeremy Ben Ami, founder of J-Street, a liberal pro-Israel group that advocates a two-state solution, said the future of the Arab-Israeli conflict lies in the pending Trump Cabinet appointments.

 

He said if policy is driven by the "Israel-can-do-no-wrong" camp, "then some of those in the Israeli right-wing are going to be very happy."

___

Associated Press writers Josef Federman and Aron Heller in Jerusalem contributed to this report.

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-11-24

[up-country_sinclair]

3 minutes ago, webfact said:

 

David Makovsky of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said the volatility of the Middle East and of American political parties after a grueling campaign have made "the conclusion of a two-state solution very unlikely."

 

What makes a two-state solution "very unlikely" is that the leader of the occupying regime has publicly stated that he will never permit it.

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/16/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-palestinian-state/

 

 

But yes, the Trump administration will be more inclined to look the other way when the occupiers steal land and kill women and children.

[Morch]

2 hours ago, up-country_sinclair said:

 

What makes a two-state solution "very unlikely" is that the leader of the occupying regime has publicly stated that he will never permit it.

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/16/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-palestinian-state/

 

 

But yes, the Trump administration will be more inclined to look the other way when the occupiers steal land and kill women and children.

 

Apparently the poster above is among those denying the existence of the Palestinians as nation. No other explanation for ignoring their own, parallel role in prolonging the conflict.

[Ulysses G.]

2 hours ago, up-country_sinclair said:

 

What makes a two-state solution "very unlikely" is that the leader of the occupying regime has publicly stated that he will never permit it.

 

 

 Of course you do not mention that he changed his mind and said that he supports a Palestinian state as a result of a bilateral agreement.

 

 

http://www.israeltoday.co.il/NewsItem/tabid/178/nid/26641/Default.aspx

 

[coma]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

But Obama has hardly cast off Israel. In September, the U.S. signed its largest-ever security agreement, giving the Israeli military $38 billion over 10 years.

 

Well if Trump's policy of getting the US's allies to start pulling their own weight in order to save American taxpayers dollars. Then that $38 billion in aid may take a heavy hit. Mr Trump has put himself in a catch 22 situation. Or the freer hand call is exactly what he means. A bit of an "Israel. Your on your own from now on. Do your best ". Only time will tell what he means and what he is actually going to do. 

[Morch]

1 hour ago, Ulysses G. said:

 

 Of course you do not mention that he changed his mind and said that he supports a Palestinian state as a result of a bilateral agreement.

 

 

http://www.israeltoday.co.il/NewsItem/tabid/178/nid/26641/Default.aspx

 

 

Like Trump, Netanyahu often says contradictory things depending on venue and circumstances. In effect, though, he does anything in his power to delay and derail any meaningful negotiations. That doesn't make the Palestinian leaderships conduct any better - just correcting the impression that Netanyahu is invested in any real effort to resolve the conflict. BTW, the source quoted is pretty much Netanyahu's mouthpiece, there's little there that doesn't praise him.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, coma said:

 

Well if Trump's policy of getting the US's allies to start pulling their own weight in order to save American taxpayers dollars. Then that $38 billion in aid may take a heavy hit. Mr Trump has put himself in a catch 22 situation. Or the freer hand call is exactly what he means. A bit of an "Israel. Your on your own from now on. Do your best ". Only time will tell what he means and what he is actually going to do. 

 

Seriously doubt he's going to renege on that one, given under the newly dictated terms, all that money is spent in the US. Cancelling it would mean dropping orders and losing jobs. Wouldn't go down to well with voters. But with regard to additional aid over and beyond the terms of the agreement, could be.

[Jingthing]

It's trump. He's a wild card. Predicting what he'll say tomorrow is impossible. He changes his "positions" constantly. 

[dunroaming]

It's speculation at the moment, just because his son in law is Jewish.....

[ThaiFelix]

A "freer hand"?.....is that possible??

[phuketkenny]

9 hours ago, up-country_sinclair said:

 

What makes a two-state solution "very unlikely" is that the leader of the occupying regime has publicly stated that he will never permit it.

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/16/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-palestinian-state/

 

 

But yes, the Trump administration will be more inclined to look the other way when the occupiers steal land and kill women and children.

Not sure what cool aid you've been drinking but you have it twisted. The killing of women and children is the work of Hamas/so called Palestinians.'Hello? Gaza? Rockets?

 

The reason all the accords and peace talks have failed over the years comes down to the same issue over and over again. The so called Palestinians refuse to recognize Isreal's right to exist. The have stated it repeatedly. How do you broker a deal with some one that won't recognize you and wants to kill you?

 

Its time to start reading the real news, not the propoganda that gets spewed out there.

[Jingthing]

3 hours ago, dunroaming said:

It's speculation at the moment, just because his son in law is Jewish.....

It's not only that he's Jewish but I agree his qualifications are not a fit.

His other "qualifications" are  -- 

has taken some trips to Israel

trump's son in law

Successful media publisher

I.T. expert

 

 

Edited November 24, 2016 by Jingthing

[NeedCoffeeNow]

Are the Palestinian people a made up state? Absolutely. Israel didn't capture the territories from palestine they captured them from Jordan, and the Jordanians are laughing their a**'s off over the fact that they got rid of them and wouldn't take them back at any offer and refuse to accept palestinean terrorists (I mean refugees) as they know these people are insane and don't care who the enact their violent philosophy on...

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, NeedCoffeeNow said:

Are the Palestinian people a made up state? Absolutely. Israel didn't capture the territories from palestine they captured them from Jordan, and the Jordanians are laughing their a**'s off over the fact that they got rid of them and wouldn't take them back at any offer and refuse to accept palestinean terrorists (I mean refugees) as they know these people are insane and don't care who the enact their violent philosophy on...

Well, however you want to paint the competing narratives, the millions of people that do identify with Palestinian identity (including in the diaspora) are for real, and no compromise for peace can ever happen without taking their aspirations into account. 

[NeedCoffeeNow]

5 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Well, however you want to paint the competing narratives, the millions of people that do identify with Palestinian identity (including in the diaspora) are for real, and no compromise for peace can ever happen without taking their aspirations into account. 

You don't seem to understand. The self appointed leader's of the Palestinean people don't  want peace as the violence is what keeps them in power and while they shout for a Palestinian state they do everything in their power to prevent this from happening as if it ever comes to pass  Palestine becomes a speck on the map and fades from world view, meaning no more power and no more money. And the prophet help them if they actually had to fix the problems and better the lives of the people instead of just screaming about how its everyone's fault but their own...

[Jingthing]

2 minutes ago, NeedCoffeeNow said:

You don't seem to understand. The self appointed leader's of the Palestinean people don't  want peace as the violence is what keeps them in power and while they shout for a Palestinian state they do everything in their power to prevent this from happening as if it ever comes to pass  Palestine becomes a speck on the map and fades from world view, meaning no more power and no more money. And the prophet help them if they actually had to fix the problems and better the lives of the people instead of just screaming about how its everyone's fault but their own...

I'm well aware of the Palestinian narrative (not fully agreeing with the way you wrote it, but doesn't matte) but that doesn't mean 100 percent that it's impossible to work towards a compromise. Extremely unlikely, sure, but stranger things have happened in history. Witness President trump. That somehow seems more unlikely yet it happened. 

Edited November 24, 2016 by Jingthing

[Morch]

6 hours ago, dunroaming said:

It's speculation at the moment, just because his son in law is Jewish.....

 

It also has a lot to do with his previous statements, his anti-Muslim stance, and some of the advisors he keeps.

I doubt it will pan out exactly as some right wing Israeli politicians expect, but overall, either through support of disinterest, could be translated to things going more their way.

[Morch]

3 hours ago, phuketkenny said:

Not sure what cool aid you've been drinking but you have it twisted. The killing of women and children is the work of Hamas/so called Palestinians.'Hello? Gaza? Rockets?

 

The reason all the accords and peace talks have failed over the years comes down to the same issue over and over again. The so called Palestinians refuse to recognize Isreal's right to exist. The have stated it repeatedly. How do you broker a deal with some one that won't recognize you and wants to kill you?

 

Its time to start reading the real news, not the propoganda that gets spewed out there.

 

There were, are and will be enough reasons given be either side for the conflict not being resolved. Anyone figuring it's only one side's responsibility is way off mark.

[Morch]

2 hours ago, NeedCoffeeNow said:

Are the Palestinian people a made up state? Absolutely. Israel didn't capture the territories from palestine they captured them from Jordan, and the Jordanians are laughing their a**'s off over the fact that they got rid of them and wouldn't take them back at any offer and refuse to accept palestinean terrorists (I mean refugees) as they know these people are insane and don't care who the enact their violent philosophy on...

 

It doesn't matter what if other people see the Palestinians as a made up state and people. There are enough of them to assert otherwise. How long back they go is not the issue. The Jordanian occupation and annexation was no more legal than the Israeli occupation is. As for Jordan, Palestinians constitute at least half of the population.

 

[Morch]

2 hours ago, NeedCoffeeNow said:

You don't seem to understand. The self appointed leader's of the Palestinean people don't  want peace as the violence is what keeps them in power and while they shout for a Palestinian state they do everything in their power to prevent this from happening as if it ever comes to pass  Palestine becomes a speck on the map and fades from world view, meaning no more power and no more money. And the prophet help them if they actually had to fix the problems and better the lives of the people instead of just screaming about how its everyone's fault but their own...

 

Abbas is not self-appointed, more like not-reelected. He is not anti-peace, and certainly not pro-violence. As the Palestinians are divided among themselves, and with an upcoming struggle for the post-Abbas leadership, it bears to be accurate which leaders are referred to. If this was a reference to Hamas, then yes - way more antagonistic stance. And yes, it would be very tricky keeping a Palestinian state afloat. While that's a worry, it did not stop others from becoming states, even if failed ones.

[Stargeezr]

Maybe  ISIL can be two states.  IS  one state  and IL  the other state.

  Palestine need to totally get rid if Hamas.  If  not  it deserves to continue

getting killed of, in Gaza or West Bank.

Geezer

[dexterm]

When Trump advisers, such as Guiliani suggests in the OP that the U.S. should "reject the whole notion of a two-state solution in Israel."  echoing Israeli right wing Cabinet Minister Naftali Bennett's "the era of a Palestinian state are over.", I am always amazed that interviewers and journalists never ask the elephant in the room question:

 

So if Israel formally annexes the whole of the land it currently occupies, what will Israel do with the 4.5 milion non Jewish residents who have lived there for generations?
...equal citizenship, apartheid, or ethnic cleansing?

 

Looks like Trump is moving towards the time when that question will have to be answered.

[Morch]

3 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

Maybe  ISIL can be two states.  IS  one state  and IL  the other state.

  Palestine need to totally get rid if Hamas.  If  not  it deserves to continue

getting killed of, in Gaza or West Bank.

Geezer

 

More complicated than that. Hamas is actually intent on keeping ISIS down in the areas under its control. They don't care much for the competition. And Hamas, while holding on to the idea of a violent struggle, got widespread popular support among Palestinians in general (one reason which leads the Fatah to delay and obstruct elections).