Trump talks Taiwan on the telephone China lodges complaint

[impulse]

8 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

If the PRC is playing a long game, and references to the Art of War are made - doubt that Trump's flaunting of diplomatic protocol plays much to the US advantage or provides evidence for any well thought out counter-strategy.

 

On the contrary.  They use cultural sensitivity, diplomatic norms and protocol as weapons.  Wanna beat them at their own game?  Keep them off balance, and don't do what they expect.  He's come right out of the blocks with a strong message:  This isn't going to be politics as usual.  You don't play by the rules.  Guess what.  We can play that way too.  Get in line, quit cheating, or watch me.

 

Or, he can do what every diplomat has done since Nixon.  But they've read that playbook.  Over and over again.  And they keep cleaning our clock.

 

Say what you want about the guy.  He knows how to negotiate.  Dumb like a fox.  Edit: Ball's in their court now.  Even before he's in the White House.

Edited December 5, 2016 by impulse

[GinBoy2]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

 

Does Taiwan actually wish to be recognized as a sovereign nation by the US?

Having lived many years in Taiwan, my take is that they are pretty split on the notion of Independence.

 

They are a pretty pragmatic people, and know full well if Beijing wanted to cross the Straits and invade they could, and there would be little Taipei could do to stop it. They are also realistic to know that despite the USN 5th carrier Fleet being in the Pacific, the time it would take for them to deploy to Taiwan, it would be a fait acomplie.

 

So Taiwanese pretty much fall into two groups; in general they all like the status quo of not rocking the boat. They have a strong democracy and a robust capitalist economy. Where they split is on how much engagement they should have with Beijing.

 

Basically the KMT lost the last election due to the fact that they had pursued too much engagement with the mainland, which ironically echo's a lot of Trump, since it was perceived that the liberalization of relations had resulted in manufacturing jobs being lost.

 

They are not stupid, they look at HK, and know that the whole 'one country, two systems' thing was in no way designed to satisfy  the British during the handover, but to lure them.

[sgtsabai]

As best as i can determine, GinBoy2 is right. It would hard to determine a consensus. Ah, this is a bit long but informative. http://www.cfr.org/china/china-taiwan-relations/p9223

[Anthony5]

30 minutes ago, wwest5829 said:

 

There are numerous public ally available scourges confirming the Trump did not receive the majority of eleigible citizen voters endorsement. You are looking to deny the facts. Try reading. That said, neither major political party presented viable candidates to win my vote. Our system has Trump as President-Elect ... that is fact. He is elected without the majority of eligible citizen votes, that too is fact.

 

I don't deny anything, especially not that Trump won the election, and he will be the next president of the US.

[elgordo38]

On 12/4/2016 at 0:26 PM, smudger1951 said:

China rising and exerting its pressure on every nation through financial acquisition, intimidation and military force. Should we have strangled the baby at birth instead of swapping pandas 40 years ago !

Yes its a stealth takeover. My ashes will be blowing in the wind when the Red Dragon rises to its zenith. 

[impulse]

FWIW, here's one guy's opinion.  I happen to agree with it.  But it is just one opinion:

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/05/asia/trump-taiwan-shaun-rein/index.html

[tonbridgebrit]

On 04/12/2016 at 8:21 AM, Luckysilk said:

Nice to see President Elect stand up to China.

 

Taiwan should be recognized as a sovereign nation.

 

Thank You President Elect Trump.

Okay, do you think that America should scrap the "One China policy" ?? 

What, go ahead and recognise that there are two Chinas on planet earth ?  Or, how about close down the US Embassy in China, and re-open it in Taiwan ?  As in, have an embassy in China, have it in Taipei ?   

 

[sgtsabai]

@impluse, if it were just about any other president elect I would agree. I cannot with it being the fascist in chief to be. He knows nothing and listens to nobody. He didn't have a clue as to what he was doing except trying to use the office to make money.

 

tonbridgebrit, I do if the Taiwan people wish it. Two embassies, one for China, one for Taiwan whatever they wish to call themselves. The Embassy there should have never closed.

 

China is a bully, but a real one that must be approached with a long term goal in mind and war ever on the mind, they seem to be itching for a fight. Trump on the other hand is just a cowardly bully that runs his mouth, may the gods help the world if they really give him the codes.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, impulse said:

 

On the contrary.  They use cultural sensitivity, diplomatic norms and protocol as weapons.  Wanna beat them at their own game?  Keep them off balance, and don't do what they expect.  He's come right out of the blocks with a strong message:  This isn't going to be politics as usual.  You don't play by the rules.  Guess what.  We can play that way too.  Get in line, quit cheating, or watch me.

 

Or, he can do what every diplomat has done since Nixon.  But they've read that playbook.  Over and over again.  And they keep cleaning our clock.

 

Say what you want about the guy.  He knows how to negotiate.  Dumb like a fox.  Edit: Ball's in their court now.  Even before he's in the White House.

 

Now if I could only believe any of the above was somehow relevant to Trump's considerations, I'd buy that.

[impulse]

12 minutes ago, sgtsabai said:

@impluse, if it were just about any other president elect I would agree. I cannot with it being the fascist in chief to be. He knows nothing and listens to nobody. He didn't have a clue as to what he was doing except trying to use the office to make money.

 

You may be right.  But I'm going to judge him on what he does, not what we expect he'll do.

 

I'm hoping he's going to be a poacher-turned-gamekeeper.   

 

Or he may be the Anti-Christ.  (Okay, that's an exaggeration)

[impulse]

16 minutes ago, Morch said:

Now if I could only believe any of the above was somehow relevant to Trump's considerations, I'd buy that.

 

I'll take results as the yardstick over motives and good (or bad) intentions -or my own expectations- any day of the week.  

 

Too early to call it based on results.  There are none yet.

 

Edited December 5, 2016 by impulse

[Morch]

5 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

I'll take results as the yardstick over motives and good (or bad) intentions -or my own expectations- any day of the week.  

 

Too early to call it based on results.  There are none yet.

 

 

And yet some already hail it as a score.

[impulse]

9 minutes ago, Morch said:

And yet some already hail it as a score.

 

When your home team has looked like the Bad News Bears for decades, just having someone who comes out onto the field without falling down can feel like a score.

Edited December 5, 2016 by impulse

[Morch]

5 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

When your home team has looked like the Bad News Bears for decades, just having someone who comes out onto the field without falling down can feel like a score.

 

Well guess we'll have to disagree on what counts as "comes out onto the field without falling down".

 

[impulse]

7 minutes ago, Morch said:

Well guess we'll have to disagree on what counts as "comes out onto the field without falling down".

 

I agree with the guy I linked in #96 based on 10-15 years of dealing with them myself, living there for 10.  But I concede it's just one opinion.  It may go sideways.

 

And my contention is that nobody's truly a China expert unless they grew up there and went through their education indoctrination system.  I certainly don't claim to be one.  Edit:  Though I do know more than a casual observer.

Edited December 5, 2016 by impulse

[Anthony5]

1 hour ago, tonbridgebrit said:

Okay, do you think that America should scrap the "One China policy" ?? 

What, go ahead and recognise that there are two Chinas on planet earth ?  Or, how about close down the US Embassy in China, and re-open it in Taiwan ?  As in, have an embassy in China, have it in Taipei ?   

 

 

 

The US recognized Taiwan up to 1979.

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

Having lived many years in Taiwan, my take is that they are pretty split on the notion of Independence.

 

They are a pretty pragmatic people, and know full well if Beijing wanted to cross the Straits and invade they could, and there would be little Taipei could do to stop it. They are also realistic to know that despite the USN 5th carrier Fleet being in the Pacific, the time it would take for them to deploy to Taiwan, it would be a fait acomplie.

 

So Taiwanese pretty much fall into two groups; in general they all like the status quo of not rocking the boat. They have a strong democracy and a robust capitalist economy. Where they split is on how much engagement they should have with Beijing.

 

Basically the KMT lost the last election due to the fact that they had pursued too much engagement with the mainland, which ironically echo's a lot of Trump, since it was perceived that the liberalization of relations had resulted in manufacturing jobs being lost.

 

They are not stupid, they look at HK, and know that the whole 'one country, two systems' thing was in no way designed to satisfy  the British during the handover, but to lure them.

 

China is just waiting for an excuse to invade Taiwan and declaring independence will be one such excuse. In 2005, China initiated an anti-secession law which aimed at Taiwan which at that time was highly nationalistic.

 

Other excuses to invade if Taiwan obtains nuclear weapons, foreign troops deployment, extreme civil unrest or foreign forces interfer with in Taiwan's internal affairs.

 

In East Asia context, Trump's idioscrantic hard stand at China will likely result in closer relationship with North Korea and their nuclear program as a retaliation move.  That will be disastrous. 

 

[Morch]

23 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

I agree with the guy I linked in #96 based on 10-15 years of dealing with them myself, living there for 10.  But I concede it's just one opinion.  It may go sideways.

 

And my contention is that nobody's truly a China expert unless they grew up there and went through their education indoctrination system.  I certainly don't claim to be one.  Edit:  Though I do know more than a casual observer.

 

Fair enough, although it may be questionable if one actually answering to the above description of "China expert" could equally be considered a "Western expert". My main point here is not with Trump's action being a "result", but with it being less grounded in some sort of strategical thinking.

[Rob13]

4 hours ago, Morch said:

Take on the PRC, just have a plan and let your team know what the plan is.

 

Yes and a guy with who ran as an isolationist who is sticking his head in a major int'l issue before he's even taken office doesn't appear to be operating with much of a plan; much less a strategy. Time will tell.

[dunroaming]

1 hour ago, impulse said:

Or he may be the Anti-Christ.  (Okay, that's an exaggeration)

 

But probably not much of one!

 

Trump is going at China like a drunk in a bar. The Chinese are not only far more savvy but also very powerful.  He seems to underestimate them and that could be costly.  but it's his ship so...

[sgtsabai]

He can't be the anti-christ, the right wing told us long ago it was Obama. Just maybe the anti-American.

[GinBoy2]

51 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Fair enough, although it may be questionable if one actually answering to the above description of "China expert" could equally be considered a "Western expert". My main point here is not with Trump's action being a "result", but with it being less grounded in some sort of strategical thinking.

It's rather hard for anyone to be a China 'expert'.

 

This is not a democratic state, with politicians bending to the will of a fickle electorate.

 

The Chinese Communist Party have the luxury of being able to pursue strategic policies over decades, without the need to pander to voters.

 

That's the problem When Western politicians, or reality TV stars thinks that 'talking tough' makes any real impact on the way these people think they are deluding themselves.

 

Xi will be in power long after Trump and whoever follows him. Xi knows that, so for him the twitter rantings of some US President Elect means almost nothing.

 

He's not worried about Twitter, Facebook, or the Breitbarts or this world. He controls information, and knows that.

 

So he will play the long strategic game, to I fear the detriment of the US and the Western world in general

[NeverSure]

Yesterday in response to Taiwan phone call - Twitter posts unfiltered by the biased media. There's a new sheriff in town who won't let China keep ripping off the US to the detriment of American jobs and workers.

 

 

 

 

 

[sgtsabai]

Ah, we already have massive military complexes all around the China Seas and more planned. Wanna' bet there's no tax involved in the US/China trade? Oops: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/mar/30/donald-trump/trump-miscasts-impact-trade-chinese-taxes/

[tonbridgebrit]

5 hours ago, Anthony5 said:

 

 

The US recognized Taiwan up to 1979.

Well, yes. Do you think it will be a good idea to go back to pre-1979 ?  As in, accept the Republic of China (Taiwan) as China, and to not accept the Peoples' Republic of China as China ?

 

[tonbridgebrit]

6 hours ago, sgtsabai said:

tonbridgebrit, I do if the Taiwan people wish it. Two embassies, one for China, one for Taiwan whatever they wish to call themselves. The Embassy there should have never closed.

 

China is a bully, but a real one that must be approached with a long term goal in mind and war ever on the mind, they seem to be itching for a fight. Trump on the other hand is just a cowardly bully that runs his mouth, may the gods help the world if they really give him the codes.

Sir, I think the problem is, if a country opens an embassy in Taiwan, then China will not allow that country to have an embassy in Beijing.

The Peoples' Republic of China, that's main-land China, they regard Taiwan as the same country as China. That's why, they won't accept an embassy in main-land China AND one in Taiwan as well. After all, you can't have two embassies in ONE country.

 

[sgtsabai]

I don't but I do think it would be a good idea to recognize Taiwan as what ever they want to be called.

[sgtsabai]

Then you suggest that the US kowtow to mainland China? Ah cut the sir please, I never accepted the commission and I don't wear a badge anymore. Hey, makes me feel old...lol.

 

I understand what you are saying and yes it is a hell of a diplomatic problem. China understands strength, nothing else, and they have outmaneuvered the US diplomatically for many, many years.

[tonbridgebrit]

2 hours ago, NeverSure said:

Yesterday in response to Taiwan phone call - Twitter posts unfiltered by the biased media. There's a new sheriff in town who won't let China keep ripping off the US to the detriment of American jobs and workers.

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting point about how Trump reckons that China deliberately weakens and devalues their currency, the cheap currency gives China an advantage in exporting even more cheaper goods.
And indeed, I think China does actually deliberately weakens it's own currency.

However, there was previously a constant poster here, called Publicus, and he reckoned that China's currency was weakening due to the Chinese economy collapsing !!

 

[sgtsabai]

Publicus, who I agree with most of the time, was probably wrong, at least to some degree. There is little doubt that China manipulates its currency, along with a host of other countries. Their economy, while not the house of cards the US has had for years, is not in good shape. Hmmm, sounds like a country in SE Asia. Smoke and mirrors for many countries these days. Trump doesn't care and I doubt very seriously the phone call was planned months in advance, spin doctors at work. Bet your bottom dollar it was all about Trump using his position to leverage money, he doesn't know enough to talk foreign policy without sounding like the babbling idiot he is.