Bot Gambit Fails

[topfield]

Following the BOT announcement of tighter regulations to curb speculation ,the baht has risen faster than ever. A full one percent since yesterday morning when the announcement was made ie up from 35.93 to 35.59.

When will they learn? The BOT has only stoked the flames with their toothless exhortations.

If the BOT wishes to curb the rise/value of the baht there is only one sure fire method of doing this.

SELL BAHT / BUY US DOLLARS .

The BOT has to put its money where its mouth is.

[lingling]

Is there anywhere one can see short interest in a currency? I would expect that a lot of people would be short selling it now, and that the rise may be artificially induced to make it worthwhile to short it...

[Mid]

Is there anywhere one can see short interest in a currency? I would expect that a lot of people would be short selling it now, and that the rise may be artificially induced to make it worthwhile to short it...

http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/USD/graph120.html

http://www.forexdirectory.net/thb.html

[lingling]

Is there anywhere one can see short interest in a currency? I would expect that a lot of people would be short selling it now, and that the rise may be artificially induced to make it worthwhile to short it...

http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/USD/graph120.html

http://www.forexdirectory.net/thb.html

That looks like exchange rates, not short interest. With short interest, I mean how much of it has been short sold (and is currently being shorted).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_selling#Currency

Edited December 5, 2006 by lingling

[Mid]

my bad ,

thats not so easy ....................

[Sunbelt Asia]

Is there anywhere one can see short interest in a currency? I would expect that a lot of people would be short selling it now, and that the rise may be artificially induced to make it worthwhile to short it...

The central bank is likely to announce a new measure tomorrow on December 6th. The biggest rumor is "possible withholding tax on capital inflows." It however will need final approval from the Finance Ministry As always foreigners are being blamed for short-term speculation and hurting Thai exports.

www.sunbeltasiagroup.com

[samran]

it is mornonic for the BOT to try and intervene with the currency. It is what led to the financial crisis last time.

[wasabi]

I think the BOT is just talking tough, they aren't really a player in manipulating world currency markets. I think the many restrictions since the Financial crisis do help prevent another disaster, but if that fails there's not much they can do.

[wasabi]

I think the BOT is just talking tough, they aren't really a player in manipulating world currency markets. I think the many restrictions since the Financial crisis do help prevent another disaster, but if that fails there's not much they can do.

By the way the Thai fund TTF is breaking out to the upside. It seems to me this may be the start of a very positive year for Thailand. I have feeling the USD may see sub 30! Though I pray not.

[fxm88]

By the way the Thai fund TTF is breaking out to the upside. It seems to me this may be the start of a very positive year for Thailand. I have feeling the USD may see sub 30! Though I pray not.

How much currency hedging does TTF engage in? (Their prospectus only states that they "may enter into foreign currency exchange contracts".)

[Losangels]

I think the BOT is just talking tough, they aren't really a player in manipulating world currency markets. I think the many restrictions since the Financial crisis do help prevent another disaster, but if that fails there's not much they can do.

Agree, BOT only has limited fund to intervine in the open market to keep the Baht from getting any stronger. Unlike Japan and China that have huge reserves to keep their currencies weak. As in most govenrment agencies here, the appearance of doing something is more important than doing something to alleviate the problem.

[Old Man River]

As always foreigners are being blamed for short-term speculation and hurting Thai exports.

In this case it is foreigners, albeit with the help of onshore banks.

[mouse]

I think the fact that the US is also trying to eradicate some of their negative trade balance is also a reason. Part of the cycle.

[Indifferent]

As I believe I said on another thread.

Watch the exports.

If the exports die then the value against the dollar means a ######..if not, then it doesn't mean jack sh*it. Opec and China are looking to move their base reserves to the Euro instead of the dollar...then Thailand needs to worry.

[monty]

To me it looks a bit like a dollar problem and not so much as a Thai Baht thing. Just compare to the some other major currencies:

Euro

UK pound

Here the trend is definately a weakening Baht (at least since nov 15)

Compared to the Dollar and the Yen, where the Baht looks like it is strengthening seriously

Dollar

Yen

[bkkandrew]

I am personally puzzled by the Yen waeakness relative to THB. As I do not export there I do not follow this closely. Can anyone elaborate?

[RedQualia]

Following the BOT announcement of tighter regulations to curb speculation ,the baht has risen faster than ever. A full one percent since yesterday morning when the announcement was made ie up from 35.93 to 35.59.

When will they learn? The BOT has only stoked the flames with their toothless exhortations.

If the BOT wishes to curb the rise/value of the baht there is only one sure fire method of doing this.

SELL BAHT / BUY US DOLLARS .

The BOT has to put its money where its mouth is.

I wouldn't be too quick to invest in US dollars! All one need do is go to www.google.com and search for "US Dollar Collapse." The result will be, oh, maybe 1500-2000 NEWS articles, as well as more than 1.5 million web articles.

Here's a sample news article from Dec 10: http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/printer-...RTICLE_ID=53311

That article asserts that BushCo is engineering a devaluation of the dollar.

Not into worldnetdaily? How about Yale University?

Why Dollar Hegemony Is Unhealthy: http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=7610

Dealing with a Declining Dollar: http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=5237

I would buy almost anything else before buying US dollars.

[monty]

After the weakening of the Baht aginst the Euro and the UK pound in the second half, it seems that the Thai Baht is now strengthening against pretty much all currencies!

The charts I posted are auto updating, so they do look different now then when I posted them!!!

[old wanderer]

I know this quick devaluation is kicking my butt. I signed a land contract to pay off by July next year for 4,000,000 baht, and am starting a home contruction also for 2,1000,000 baht. Since my money is in USD. This is not good news. I have substantial deposits on both projects, so hard to just walk away.

When I structured my payments I had looked at a forcast 2 months ago that predicted the baht at 37.8 in July of 07....(Like the saying goes I guess "you get what you pay for", and this was a free service).

[RedQualia]

I know this quick devaluation is kicking my butt. I signed a land contract to pay off by July next year for 4,000,000 baht, and am starting a home contruction also for 2,1000,000 baht. Since my money is in USD. This is not good news. I have substantial deposits on both projects, so hard to just walk away.

When I structured my payments I had looked at a forcast 2 months ago that predicted the baht at 37.8 in July of 07....(Like the saying goes I guess "you get what you pay for", and this was a free service).

Are you actually in Thailand, or in the USA? If the latter, get a loan there, and ship the proceeds to your home builder. Your obligations will then be in USD. Regardless, pay for it all now, or at least move it to a Thai bank now. Yesterday, the dollar was at 34.9. Today it's at 34.79, per Siam Commercial's exchange rate chart. Since it broke the 35 baht "barrier," there's nothing to keep it from hitting 34. Indeed, I see nothing to keep it from hitting 30 or less. Just a matter of time.