Why is Thai baht strengthening?

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

 

700 billion for the year doesn't seem unrealistic. The problem is that inflows and outflows are at work every day hence without knowing what the other side of the equation looks like it's hard to get too excited although I suspect the net position is strongly minus.

I think this B 700 bn is net. If you look at my previous link it look like there was negative nett flows on the financial account in most months. 

[Dellboy218]

28 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

I also am getting over 3% here currently but that's on deposits I bought three years ago,. You didn't buy any fixed rate bank deposit nor any base rate linked banking product in the past six months at least at over 1.9%, insurance linked or equities linked maybe, bank rate linked never.

 

On the subject of UK base rates being reduced to 0.1%, I bow to your crystal ball and am in awe, really I am!

My Crystal ball as you so sarcastically put it is called the HSBC.

Dear

We recently told you that we’re reducing the interest rate on some of our accounts. Full details of these changes can be found below.

I’d like to remind you these changes will be effective from 25 January 2017, so you still have time to review your finances and ensure your funds are in the best place.

Your options We understand that a reduction in interest rates is never good news, but if you’re comfortable with the changes, you don’t need to do anything. If not, you have the right to close your account without charge at any time, although we hope you’ll chose to continue saving with us. If you close an ISA, you’ll lose the associated future tax benefits1. Alternatively, if you wish to retain these benefits, you can transfer your ISA to another ISA provider at any time without charge.

Thank you for choosing HSBC.

Yours sincerely Debbie Thomas Head of Savings

1The value of the tax benefits provided by a cash ISA depends on your individual circumstances. The tax treatment of ISAs could change in the future.

Summary of savings interest rate changes

Premier Savings

Rates effective up to 25 January 2017 Balance Gross AER £100,000 + 0.10% 0.10% £50,000+ 0.10% 0.10% £1+ 0.10% 0.10%   Rates effective from 25 January 2017 Balance Gross AER £100,000 + 0.05% 0.05% £50,000+ 0.05% 0.05% £1+ 0.05% 0.05%

Flexible Saver

Standard rates

Rates effective up to 25 January 2017 Balance Gross AER £50,000 + 0.05% 0.05% £10,000+ 0.05% 0.05% £1+ 0.05% 0.05%   Rates effective from 25 January 2017 Balance Gross AER £50,000 + 0.01% 0.01% £10,000+ 0.01% 0.01% £1+ 0.01% 0.01%

[fletchsmile]

4 hours ago, OJAS said:

How long before the THB rises to parity with the GBP, I wonder?

 

10,253 years 347 days

[chiang mai]

32 minutes ago, Dellboy218 said:

My Crystal ball as you so sarcastically put it is called the HSBC.

Dear

We recently told you that we’re reducing the interest rate on some of our accounts. Full details of these changes can be found below.

I’d like to remind you these changes will be effective from 25 January 2017, so you still have time to review your finances and ensure your funds are in the best place.

Your options We understand that a reduction in interest rates is never good news, but if you’re comfortable with the changes, you don’t need to do anything. If not, you have the right to close your account without charge at any time, although we hope you’ll chose to continue saving with us. If you close an ISA, you’ll lose the associated future tax benefits1. Alternatively, if you wish to retain these benefits, you can transfer your ISA to another ISA provider at any time without charge.

Thank you for choosing HSBC.

Yours sincerely Debbie Thomas Head of Savings

1The value of the tax benefits provided by a cash ISA depends on your individual circumstances. The tax treatment of ISAs could change in the future.

Summary of savings interest rate changes

Premier Savings

Rates effective up to 25 January 2017   Balance   Gross   AER   £100,000 +   0.10%   0.10%   £50,000+   0.10%   0.10%   £1+   0.10%   0.10%       Rates effective from 25 January 2017   Balance   Gross   AER   £100,000 +   0.05%   0.05%   £50,000+   0.05%   0.05%   £1+   0.05%   0.05%

Flexible Saver

Standard rates

Rates effective up to 25 January 2017   Balance   Gross   AER   £50,000 +   0.05%   0.05%   £10,000+   0.05%   0.05%   £1+   0.05%   0.05%       Rates effective from 25 January 2017   Balance   Gross   AER   £50,000 +   0.01%   0.01%   £10,000+   0.01%   0.01%   £1+   0.01%   0.01%

 

You've posted interest rates from HSBC UK and they are 0.10%, but that is not the BOE rate which is 0.25%. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/iadb/Repo.asp

 

Please note that "the bank rate" means the Bank of England rate and not your bank account rate!!!

 

If you tried a little bit harder you'd see that offshore UK interest rates are as high as 1.75%, today!  http://moneyfacts.co.uk/offshore/offshore-fixed-rate-bonds/

y.But none of the above has anything to do with BOT and BOE rates which remain 1.50% and 0.25% respectively

 

[Dellboy218]

I didnt realise I mentioned any particular interest rates, that is your assumption.

 

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, Dellboy218 said:

I didnt realise I mentioned any particular interest rates, that is your assumption.

 

 

So what does your post of the HSBC  rates have to do with anything even remotely relevant to this debate? You wrote, "My Crystal ball as you so sarcastically put it is called the HSBC" which is neither the BOE base rate nor your investment return rate, what use is it and what purpose does it serve in the discussion? :

[Dellboy218]

Get off your high horse and go back to the original comments,  it seems obvious I was referring to non business rates, ie, personal rates and you have turned it into the big production argument involving BOE rates.  The original question was why is the Baht strengthening.  It does not ask what place the BOE has in a strengthening Baht.

[OJAS]

21 minutes ago, fletchsmile said:

 

10,253 years 347 days

I hope you're right!

[chiang mai]

14 minutes ago, Dellboy218 said:

Get off your high horse and go back to the original comments,  it seems obvious I was referring to non business rates, ie, personal rates and you have turned it into the big production argument involving BOE rates.  The original question was why is the Baht strengthening.  It does not ask what place the BOE has in a strengthening Baht.

 

Goodbye.

[Naam]

1 hour ago, fletchsmile said:

 

10,253 years 347 days

Quote

OJAS said:

How long before the THB rises to parity with the GBP, I wonder?

 but that's a Sunday!

[EricTh]

8 hours ago, fruitman said:

 

Sounds reasonable but what if thailand gets new elections?? 

 

I agree there must be big buyers for the Baht right now, but who can they be? Is it the chinese? They also are buying the bitcoins now since they aren't allowed to buy us$ or other big currencies i read.

 

Yes, could it be the Chinese buying up Thai baht because China is devaluing its currency?

 

[EricTh]

7 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

Once again, THB is not strengthening, it's falling against USD (90 MA) and GBP has fallen against USD also (which means GBP has weakened against THB).

 

USD has dropped from 35.75 to 35.3 in less than a week as of now and still falling .

 

 

Edited January 12, 2017 by EricTh

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, EricTh said:

 

USD has dropped from 35.75 to 35.3 in less than a week as of now and still falling .

 

 

 

USD has weakened over the past few days, the 90day MA however has seen it strengthening.

Edited January 12, 2017 by chiang mai

[ericthai]

10 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Isnt the Baht strong because oil price is down, Thailand imports 100% of it oil and everything runs on oil. oil down = Baht up

Sorry but that's wrong,  Thailand imports about 60% of their oil. Thailand started drilling operations for oil in the 80's.

 

[IAMHERE]

11 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

Not in the least. BTW the rates are:

 

UK = 0.25%

Thailand = 1.50%

 

 

the 10-year T-bill rose dramatically after the election, it has fallen back from its high of 2.6% and is still historically very low at 2.35%.

So money that recently went to the USA for higher interest rate is on its way back.

[chiang mai]

4 hours ago, ericthai said:

Sorry but that's wrong,  Thailand imports about 60% of their oil. Thailand started drilling operations for oil in the 80's.

 

 

Agreed - "Thailand consumed an estimated 1 million bbl/d of oil in 2011, leaving total net imports of 627,000 bbl/d, and making the country the second largest net oil importer in Southeast Asia".  https://www.worldenergy.org/data/resources/country/thailand/oil/

[chiang mai]

25 minutes ago, IAMHERE said:

the 10-year T-bill rose dramatically after the election, it has fallen back from its high of 2.6% and is still historically very low at 2.35%.

So money that recently went to the USA for higher interest rate is on its way back.

 

I genuinely don't fully understand this so let me rephrase it and you tell me what's wrong or what I've missed:

 

Capital outflows from Thailand went back into US Treasury bills just after the election, in November and December (that would match up with funds outflows reported in Thailand).

 

!0 year T'bills peaked and then fell back slightly, indeed they did - http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

 

"So money that recently went to the USA for higher interest rate is on its way back"  - unless you can show that it's coming back, the best that can be said is that money has come out of 10 year T'bills and gone somewhere, into equities perhaps? But back to Thailand seems doubtful, why would it?

 

 

[IAMHERE]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

I genuinely don't fully understand this so let me rephrase it and you tell me what's wrong or what I've missed:

 

Capital outflows from Thailand went back into US Treasury bills just after the election, in November and December (that would match up with funds outflows reported in Thailand).

 

!0 year T'bills peaked and then fell back slightly, indeed they did - http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

 

"So money that recently went to the USA for higher interest rate is on its way back"  - unless you can show that it's coming back, the best that can be said is that money has come out of 10 year T'bills and gone somewhere, into equities perhaps? But back to Thailand seems doubtful, why would it?

 

 

You better than I at this, I'm thinking when the interest rate was higher on the ten year after the election money went from Thailand to USA so dollars were in demand; now demand is not so much. More demand for US dollars means a good rate for the dollars, less demand for US dollars would mean a lesser exchange rate. If Yellen raises rates in June I expect that 36 to 1 rate to return. Or if something happens that would make the rich want to go to a 'safer' dollar/yen/franc/whatever.

I am not real successful or knowledgeable economically, just trying to answer the OP best I can.

[stament]

The dollar has strengthened vs the baht for quite some time now overall, but what I think the OP is referring to is the decline this week. Its that question we need to focus on.

[chiang mai]

2 hours ago, stament said:

The dollar has strengthened vs the baht for quite some time now overall, but what I think the OP is referring to is the decline this week. Its that question we need to focus on.

 

This weeks Dollar blip was the result of markets lack in confidence following Trump's speech on the economy and investments, it was just a blip and USD has now returned to its previous levels, as has THB.

Edited January 13, 2017 by chiang mai

[stament]

21 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

This weeks Dollar blip was the result of markets lack in confidence following Trump's speech on the economy and investments, it was just a blip and USD has now returned to its previous levels, as has THB.

doesnt seem to be returning to levels of a week or more ago yet or do you know something we don't? or do you mean around 35.4, 35.5 mark?

 

 

[chiang mai]

5 minutes ago, stament said:

doesnt seem to be returning to levels of a week or more ago yet or do you know something we don't? or do you mean around 35.4, 35.5 mark?

 

 

 

XE.com doesn't show onshore baht rates, best to look at Thai banks in Thailand and what their rate is, if in doubt click on the chart button on the right of each line to see the history, UOB is a good guide. https://daytodaydata.net/

 

EDIT: sorry we're talking cross purposes here. THB/GBP is returning to rates of a week ago, against USD, THB continues to slip.

Edited January 13, 2017 by chiang mai

[stament]

any rason for the continued slide against USD apart from the bullish tourist and 2017 economy outlook growth in TH?

[chiang mai]

6 minutes ago, stament said:

any rason for the continued slide against USD apart from the bullish tourist and 2017 economy outlook growth in TH?

 

It's actually an increase in strength of USD against THB rather than the opposite, the reason being the prospect of higher interest rates in the West plus the belief that Trump will improve the US economy, at least it was until he spoke yesterday I believe - see the Dollar Index for the impact.

 

https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-streaming-chart

 

A WSJ news report here:

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/dollar-loses-ground-after-trump-speaks-1484203000

Edited January 13, 2017 by chiang mai

[stament]

49 minutes ago, stament said:

any rason for the continued slide against USD apart from the bullish tourist and 2017 economy outlook growth in TH?

I meant the slide of the USD from 35.9 levels to 35.4 apologies

[Jonmarleesco]

None that doesn't defy logic. That said, the GBP has been weakening rather than the Baht strengthening against it.

[louse1953]

Because Thailand are better economic managers than their western counterparts.

[lannarebirth]

On 1/12/2017 at 11:24 AM, chiang mai said:

 

USD has weakened over the past few days, the 90day MA however has seen it strengthening.

 

Watch the 200 SMA

[EricTh]

USD has dropped to 35.30 today.

 

[chiang mai]

7 minutes ago, EricTh said:

USD has dropped to 35.30 today.

 

 

Yep, the Dollar Index is down 0.86%, presumably continued Trump nervousness?

 

https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-streaming-chart