Dollar caught in crossfire as Trump talks currency wars

[chilli42]

On 2/2/2017 at 3:23 PM, YeahSiam said:

2.5% yield with inflation already over the Fed's 2% target (and that's just the official rate) and with a new administration fixing to issue another $1 trillion in debt to fund an infrastructure stimulus?

Yeah, right

 

Emerging market equities and precious metals will do me just fine, thanks.

 

Good luck with that!

[ilostmypassword]

13 hours ago, smedly said:

the reality is that Thailand floats in a sea of currency,  they as a country have no influence on were the baht goes unless they take extreme measures and interfere with Bhat valuations, there are probably a few influential people in Thailand who are watching very carefully what is going on in the US..............................the clear message is (for the wise ones) that the new president is looking to devalue to Dollar - in fact what he is doing is playing the same game as the rest of them especially China who have been playing this game for years.....would I want to hold dollars right now ..................nope, what currency would I want to be holding.............well I have got to go with Sterling, the Euro is poison right now simply because the a'hols in Brussels will try to damage a reasonably good relationship with the UK just to make some sort of very poor point......their words - the British people will suffer.............sounds a bit like war talk - if you won't submit to our rules we will make you pay..... <deleted> is that all about, at the end of it the EU and all its member states will lose big time if it is allowed to continue, the bravado face saving talk is finished..............the EU needs the UK and a continued trade deal that works for all

 

and as for the current state of the EU................Rant warning but all about currency

 

Oh and try getting 60 billion from my UK wallet...................really, how about Germany and Austria  paying what it owes both in monetary value and also compensation for the .......MILLIONS of lives that were lost and people  slaughtered in 2x world wars that you started............someone want to tally that one up.......................it wasn't that long ago and it is worth remembering that there are still people living today that lived it to the full in that hell on earth

 

 

I said many times before and I will keep saying - the UK voted to join the EEC back then and it was a good idea, all the other treaties (crap) that followed was never put to the British people - all these so called (nice word) treaties .............they were not treaties - they were far reaching nasties that the British people had no say what so ever, it was a power grab on a scale that only war would have accomplished and yet our government representatives over the years decided  that we should comply..............really ?

 

Some of the stuff was good but an awful lot of it was a blatant power grab ..........the sort of stuff that is usually the result of a war and the victor takes all, it just went too far and the British people have said .....no more

 

ask this question - all things being equal - why should Germany be doing better than Greece ?.....why

 

Why should Germany be doing better than France ?........ why

 

 

Why Should Germany be doing better than the UK ?..........why

 

Because .....................................they own the EU....yes two wars millions dead and they got it, we handed it to them on the back of a trade deal (EEC) that went terribly wrong

 

I hope they are willing to pay for the debt they created when it all implodes - which is going to happen very soon - I give it 12 months or maximum 24 months

 

who is going to pay

 

seems to me that Germany owes a lot of money they have accumulated over the last century and they are still adding to it today

Your comment about China devaluing its currency is nonsense. The opposite has been the case for some time now.  The Chinese authorities are trying to raise its value against the dollar.

[Srikcir]

5 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

The opposite has been the case for some time now.

"... the Chinese monetary authorities let the yuan appreciate from 8.3 to about 6.8 to the dollar in 2008. This peg held steady until mid-2010, at which point the yuan slowly strengthened to 6 in early 2014. From that high point, the yuan has depreciated moderately to around 6.5 to the USD."

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-currency-devaluation-just-getting-started-2016-2

[ilostmypassword]

12 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

"... the Chinese monetary authorities let the yuan appreciate from 8.3 to about 6.8 to the dollar in 2008. This peg held steady until mid-2010, at which point the yuan slowly strengthened to 6 in early 2014. From that high point, the yuan has depreciated moderately to around 6.5 to the USD."

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-currency-devaluation-just-getting-started-2016-2

That devaluation has been despite the chinese efforts, not because of it. They've been divesting themselves of Treasury bonds and have instituted capital controls. Not the kind of steps taken by a country trying to devalue its currency.

[YeahSiam]

3 hours ago, chilli42 said:

Good luck with that!

Same to you with that US Treasury toilet paper you're so fond of

[YeahSiam]

2 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

That devaluation has been despite the chinese efforts, not because of it. They've been divesting themselves of Treasury bonds and have instituted capital controls. Not the kind of steps taken by a country trying to devalue its currency.

Indeed

The People's Bank of China raised interest rates today

[does]

On 2/2/2017 at 3:31 PM, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

Replaced with what? Chinese Redback? Euro and all the debt in southern Europe?

The mighty dollar will outlive all of us.

See earlier comments on SDR. The global share of oil sold in non-dollar currencies in increasing yearly. Moreover, China now accounts for something like 40% of all economic growth in the world.

[chilli42]

16 hours ago, YeahSiam said:

Same to you with that US Treasury toilet paper you're so fond of

Hmm, did I say it was fond of US treasuries?  Did I say I invest in US treasuries? What I said was that for those that invest in treasuries, they are a better option than Japanese or Euro treasuries.  While I am not "fond" of commodities or emerging markets, they are presently inexpensive to buy into and will get less expensive.  That said, if you have the patience and persistence to buy and hold you may do well long term when global trade truths around ... which it must at some point.

 

One final point.  My post was responding to why the US dollar is strong relative to other major global currencies at the moment.  My comment on the yield of US treasuries is but one of numerous reasons explaining the dollars strength .. e.g. which treasury paper is a more likely to attract investment, US with a yield of 2.5% or Japanese with negative yield. Perhaps you don't agree with the explanation or it's too complicated for you.  If you construed my explanation of why the US$ is at its current levels as a criticism of your choice to invest in emerging markets and precious metals ... it strikes me that you are not very confident in those investment choices.

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 4/2/2560 at 10:21 AM, does said:

See earlier comments on SDR. The global share of oil sold in non-dollar currencies in increasing yearly. Moreover, China now accounts for something like 40% of all economic growth in the world.

 

Sure and Japan probably had a similar share of world growth in the 1980's. 

 

China is already producing near 100% of the worlds zippes and buttons, 90% of all PCs, 80% of the air conditioners, 70% of mobile phones, 60% of shoes.

 

Unless you thing they can produce more then 100% of any given product, they are fast running out of space to growth, just like Japan did in 1991.

[YeahSiam]

13 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

Sure and Japan probably had a similar share of world growth in the 1980's. 

 

China is already producing near 100% of the worlds zippes and buttons, 80% of the air conditioners, 70% of mobile phones, 60% of shoes.

 

Unless you thing they can produce more then 100% of any given product, they are fast running out of space to growth, just like Japan did in 1991.

And they realise that - hence the drive to bring their rate of economic growth down to more sustainable levels.

 

Doesn't mean the dollar isn't in for a serious drubbing - it's already happening