Thai treasury reserves down 85% since coup

[Bangkok Barry]

13 hours ago, Thailand said:

Bankruptcy by the end of 2018 at this rate.

Guess tourism and foreign investment income is not filling the coffers despite the huge increases we are continually told about.

The reserves have been propping up the baht but that is obviously likely to change, could always print more money but we know what happens then.

Looks like a bubble about to burst, the elites and the rest behind the last coup will be hurting and unhappy.

Really? You don't think they'll be shipping funds overseas to take advantage of the plunging exchange rate? If they haven't already.

[Bangkok Barry]

My sister-in-law is a teacher and has had her tax rate increased from  7 to 10 percent. Not just aircraft fuel taxes going up.

[Enoon]

5 hours ago, chiang mai said:

I presume the article is referring to Thailands budget deficit which is very low by comparison to other countries. As I recall they said last year that they would increase that deficit this year hence what's being reported is a non-event and old news at that. I know it wont go down well with many readers but the man is correct that it's more cost effective to pay down loans and pay cash rather than pay interest on loans to complete those projects, which is why every governement in the world does the exact same thing. Sorry to interrupt your bashing, please continue with the conspiracy theories and tales of financial mismanagement and highlighting how little you understand about economics.

 

Budget deficit is the difference between income and expenditure:

 

"A budget deficit is an indicator of financial health in which expenditures exceed revenue. The term budget deficit is most commonly used to refer to government spending rather than business or individual spending, but can be applied to all of these entities."

 

Reserves are what's sitting in the bank.   The "balance"

 

The Government had 495 billion baht in the bank in 2014. 

 

It now has 75 billion, according to the article.

 

To a simple saver like me that indicates that they have been spending all their income and "dipping", quite deeply, into their savings.

 

(Perhaps we should remember that the previous PM has been compelled to go on trial for mismanagement of the economy and that the present PM has made sure, or thinks that he has made sure that, in law, such a thing could not happen to him.  Nice work if you can get it)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2017 by Enoon

[piersbeckett]

5 hours ago, Sphere said:

 

It must be the Wednesday exercises....

 or it could Mr. Chan-ocha's clothes (wardrobe) bill

[The man from udon]

18 minutes ago, mki8 said:

it is still very early days in the bitcoin world,

i suggest you start stocking up on some,

i have thought about starting an AMA bitcoin thread on TV,

to help explain to TV members in laymans terms what bitcoin is.

I just had a peep at bitcoin price.its up 1.11% since opening today.thats about 400 times better than bkk fixed term over 1 year.so 100 bitcoins @ just a fraction off 37,000b would be 3.7mb...1.11% up today,nearly 40,000baht up today.have I got that approx right?

[Baerboxer]

6 hours ago, Brer Fox said:

Blind Freddy could have seen this coming. Military governments do not understand the meaning of financial restraint. They spend like drunken sailors particularly on their beloved war toys. Tax hikes to try to claw some money back has already started with the increase on duty on jet fuel. For sure there are many more increases on duty and excise on the way. Motor fuels and booze are sure to rise. Just wait until they have to start to fork out for high speed trains. Then the lid will really blow off the economy. Thailand ain't seen nothing yet; particularly if a few wild cards like Trump policy decisions affect their exports.

 

Not sure civilian governments are necessarily better. Just seem to come up with more creative replenishment ideas. Tax increases, direct personal tax, corporation tax, VAT increases, luxury tax, investment tax, wealth tax, inheritance tax - the list is endless with a bit of creativity.

If your worried about pissing the rich and powerful off, or of course you are one and wan't to reform tax laws to benefit yourself and your mates then you can increase borrowing - like say 2.2 trillion off budget little loan.

 

All governments have pet projects that they always seem to find money for (at all levels of government too). And all seem blighted by over spending, nepotism, family job creations, and expense fiddling - just like the US, UK, France, Germany and Aussie, those Western bastions of democracy and ethics 555!

[tukkytuktuk]

Bankruptcy by the end of 2018 at this rate.
Guess tourism and foreign investment income is not filling the coffers despite the huge increases we are continually told about.
The reserves have been propping up the baht but that is obviously likely to change, could always print more money but we know what happens then.
Looks like a bubble about to burst, the elites and the rest behind the last coup will be hurting and unhappy.

Yes, but by 2018 the new government will be in power after the reformed election which would have been held by then. Wiping the slate clean of any wrong doing by the coup makers.

It's then pie slicing time again. This time with different puppets doing the slicing.

[Baerboxer]

43 minutes ago, Enoon said:

 

Budget deficit is the difference between income and expenditure:

 

"A budget deficit is an indicator of financial health in which expenditures exceed revenue. The term budget deficit is most commonly used to refer to government spending rather than business or individual spending, but can be applied to all of these entities."

 

Reserves are what's sitting in the bank.   The "balance"

 

The Government had 495 billion baht in the bank in 2014. 

 

It now has 75 billion, according to the article.

 

To a simple saver like me that indicates that they have been spending all their income and "dipping", quite deeply, into their savings.

 

(Perhaps we should remember that the previous PM has been compelled to go on trial for mismanagement of the economy and that the present PM has made sure, or thinks that he has made sure that, in law, such a thing could not happen to him.  Nice work if you can get it)

 

 

 

 

 

No, the previous PM is on trial for negligence in one particular scheme which appears to have been mismanaged. The fact she appointed herself as Chair of that scheme then didn't bother attending any of the meetings may have something to do with that charge.

 

However, your savings analogy is correct. More importantly, if you have been spending all your income, and dipping into your savings, then you'd expect to see some results of that spending and also an account trail of where the money went. Basic accounting. Bit like the expensive trip to Hawaii - the answer is move on, nothing to do with you.

[Baerboxer]

56 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

The 420 B Baht is earning interest in various banks. Not a healthy adjustment when you pay for risk for loans. Oxymoronic statement.

 

How do you know that Eric? Have you seen details on where it has been spent?

[Sakeopete]

6 hours ago, Thailand said:

Bankruptcy by the end of 2018 at this rate.

Guess tourism and foreign investment income is not filling the coffers despite the huge increases we are continually told about.

The reserves have been propping up the baht but that is obviously likely to change, could always print more money but we know what happens then.

Looks like a bubble about to burst, the elites and the rest behind the last coup will be hurting and unhappy.

They already moved their cash overseas same as 97.

[masuk]

6 hours ago, Brer Fox said:

Blind Freddy could have seen this coming. Military governments do not understand the meaning of financial restraint. They spend like drunken sailors particularly on their beloved war toys. Tax hikes to try to claw some money back has already started with the increase on duty on jet fuel. For sure there are many more increases on duty and excise on the way. Motor fuels and booze are sure to rise. Just wait until they have to start to fork out for high speed trains. Then the lid will really blow off the economy. Thailand ain't seen nothing yet; particularly if a few wild cards like Trump policy decisions affect their exports.

Has anyone suggested that the thousands of fines imposed each day for reckless driving, no helmets, using a phone while driving etc, be paid direct to treasury?

[morrobay]

5 minutes ago, Sakeopete said:

They already moved their cash overseas same as 97.

Can you elaborate/and give a source for above ?

[CharlieK]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

that depletion of 420 billion baht from the coffers was a healthy adjustment and meant the government was relying less on loans.

Going to be looking for loans soon then!  

[chiang mai]

2 hours ago, Allstars said:

But since the Baht is higher than end of last year against all major currencies, and we are in the traditional tourist high season now, I would think the foreign currency reserves should rise instead of decline in January

Except the foreign currency reserves are expressed in USD but are actually composed of, wait for it, foreign currencies!

[elgordo38]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

baht from the coffers was a healthy adjustment and meant the government was relying less on loans.

 

To buy subs, planes, tanks, guns ships and the other boy toys. What is it with governments and the taxpayers money? The last I heard their reserves were at record levels. Numbers game at best. 

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, Jonmarleesco said:

TiT, as you say. Not the UK; not Japan. But then the Baht's level has never been predicated on the usual factors.

Really, which conspiracy theory did you have in mind.

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, Enoon said:

 

Budget deficit is the difference between income and expenditure:

 

"A budget deficit is an indicator of financial health in which expenditures exceed revenue. The term budget deficit is most commonly used to refer to government spending rather than business or individual spending, but can be applied to all of these entities."

 

Reserves are what's sitting in the bank.   The "balance"

 

The Government had 495 billion baht in the bank in 2014. 

 

It now has 75 billion, according to the article.

 

To a simple saver like me that indicates that they have been spending all their income and "dipping", quite deeply, into their savings.

 

(Perhaps we should remember that the previous PM has been compelled to go on trial for mismanagement of the economy and that the present PM has made sure, or thinks that he has made sure that, in law, such a thing could not happen to him.  Nice work if you can get it)

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, but the money that has been spent represents deficit spending which is scheduled to be increased this year..

[elgordo38]

13 hours ago, davehowden said:

"But, he said, that depletion of 420 billion baht from the coffers was a healthy adjustment and meant the government was relying less on loans."

 

Sorry, say that again for me !!!

How may times do they have to spout BS for you to swallow it???

[roobaa01]

5555 comparing thailand to greece, italy, portugal , i m not hesitant saying i feel save with my funds in a thaibank.

 

wbr

roobaa01

[billd766]

3 hours ago, tracker1 said:

I am sure I read a week or two ago nurses in public hospitals haven't been paid for months ! when a Government can't pay its employees something is drastically wrong

 

It might be drastically wrong if you can find and post the link to the comment. If you can't then what you posted is meaningless.

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

It might be drastically wrong if you can find and post the link to the comment. If you can't then what you posted is meaningless.

It's a real story bill but it's not based around the inability to pay, it's all about approvals for the new positions and whose budget they belong in.

 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30305051

[rreddin]

6 hours ago, whatawonderfulday said:

Let's get the GBP and US back to 75/48 respectively asap as the Baht has been propped up far too long

It has been apparent for some time that the THB simply could not have sustained itself at the level that it was without some kind of support. Now we know, assuming the article is essentially correct, that the reserves were used to maintain the THB at a level that was not economically justifiable.

 

Between 30th June 2014 and 31st January 2017 the international value of the USD in percentage terms has increased as these US Dollar Indices show: DTWEXM (22.96%), DTWEXB (23.15%), and DTWEXO (23.20%). The average of these indices is 23.10%. Whereas, the THB to USD exchange rate rose by only 8.15% over exactly the same period, which is slightly more than a third of the amount that the international value of the USD actually increased. That means, at least theoretically, the THB to USD rate should be 40 or above.

[billd766]

14 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

It's a real story bill but it's not based around the inability to pay, it's all about approvals for the new positions and whose budget they belong in.

 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30305051

 

Thank you for the link. I must have missed it as I normally read the other paper on line.

[Allstars]

45 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Except the foreign currency reserves are expressed in USD but are actually composed of, wait for it, foreign currencies!

 

But wait for it a bit more.

 

Since the USD has decreased in value against about every currency in the past month, the foreign reserves when expressed in USD should be higher, even when nothing changed.

 

And as an icing on the cake, as we are in tourist high season, more foreigner will arrive in January than in other months.

 

And guess what, they bring foreign currency with them.

[candide]

As mentioned before a low treasury level is not necessarily a bad indicator, it depends on the cause of this level. Apparently it seems to be linked to an increase of budget deficit.

In the BP article on the same topic, they provide a table of the state's financial position over the last ten years. The budget deficit has increased from 239 billion in 2013 to 384 in 2014, 394 in 2015, and 395 in 2015. For 2017, the current deficit (at this time, not the year forecast) is 415 billion, but the time period is too short to draw any meaningful conclusion from this figure.

[Naam]

5 hours ago, Srikcir said:

As an example of using foreign reserves to manipulates currency value see http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-currency-reserves-are-running-out-2015-2

that's comparing potatoes with strawberries

[Naam]

3 hours ago, OldSiamHand said:

So, given these numbers, I assume you see the finances as relatively healthy, as this borrowing amounts to about 2.3% of GDP, compared to borrowing of nearly 4% of GDP in the UK and over 5% in Japan.  Seems to bode well for a stronger Baht compared to Sterling and the Yen.  Your point, right?

[chiang mai]

31 minutes ago, Allstars said:

 

But wait for it a bit more.

 

Since the USD has decreased in value against about every currency in the past month, the foreign reserves when expressed in USD should be higher, even when nothing changed.

 

And as an icing on the cake, as we are in tourist high season, more foreigner will arrive in January than in other months.

 

And guess what, they bring foreign currency with them.

The purpose of foreign currency reserves is to guarantee export trade and to settle import bills and significantly year end marks the end of the Thailands accounting period hence any oustanding import bills would have been settled then. A secondary purpose in the case of BOT is to manage the value of THB in order to smooth out the rises in falls in the THB/USD exchange rate. A third and equally important purpose is to mange the value of THB against the basket of ASEAN currencies. THB weakened against USD in December, bottoming at 36, it subsequently strengthened to 35 during January, BOT would have been active during that time and earlier, intervening in the forex markets..

 

https://www.thebalance.com/foreign-exchange-reserves-3306258

 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=1Y

[elgordo38]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

Nice work if you can get it)

 

He is making Yingluck look like a piker. He can spend as much as he wants to the law cannot touch him thanks to his own clemency act. 

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, elgordo38 said:

He is making Yingluck look like a piker. He can spend as much as he wants to the law cannot touch him thanks to his own clemency act. 

You quoted something I didn't say, please remove it.