Falling treasury reserves: There’s more to it than the govt’s claims

[chiang mai]

Just now, Eric Loh said:

Try reading and research more. He need all the help.

Try supporting your case by posting confirmation links and/or proof that you are not just bashing and speaking nonsense, as it stands now you're spouting rubbish!

[chainarong]

If you pull your treasury down you have less chance of raising loans, what's Thailand's credit rating anyone know, it certainly wouldn't be AAA, that decides what the borrowing interest rate would be..............................

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, chainarong said:

If you pull your treasury down you have less chance of raising loans, what's Thailand's credit rating anyone know, it certainly wouldn't be AAA, that decides what the borrowing interest rate would be..............................

Fitch is BBB+.

 

I have no idea what you're talking about when you say "pull your Treasury down", do you know.

[Eric Loh]

1 minute ago, chiang mai said:

Try supporting your case by posting confirmation links and/or proof that you are not just bashing and speaking nonsense, as it stands now you're spouting rubbish!

Many have seen the numbers in the mass media but you didn't. Come out of your fantasy cocoon  world mate. 

[chiang mai]

Just now, Eric Loh said:

Many have seen the numbers in the mass media but you didn't. Come out of your fantasy cocoon  world mate. 

So post the numbers here, is that a problem for you?

[Eric Loh]

1 minute ago, chiang mai said:

So post the numbers here, is that a problem for you?

I already post the numbers seen by many but not you. Sorry I am not paid to do your work.

[chiang mai]

Just now, Eric Loh said:

I already post the numbers seen by many but not you. Sorry I am not paid to do your work.

 

You're talking rubbish and nonsense Eric, spouting numbers you can't support, don't provide a link to and don't even know what they are.

 

Budget to GDP deficit percentages have been posted earlier, they are 2.5% of late, not the 17% you claim.

 

You're making yourself look very silly by just pulling numbers that you can't substantiate, out of nowhere.

 

Suggest you put up or shut up!

[halloween]

8 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Bottom line, falling treasury reserves, increasing budget deficits and more borrowings by the junta government are bad for the country and a burden for the tax payers and generations to come. More so when you have a junta government that lacks transparency and accountability and threaten people that ask too much difficult questions. Nothing good when you spend more than you earn especially at this time when the exports and domestic economy are weak and those are our major key economic engines. The global uncertainty and softness will persist for a long while and we need better financial discipline and accountability; not from this unelected junta government. 

Yes, things would have been much rosier if Yingluk had been allowed to borrow B2.2 trillion to prop up her rice scam - for a select few that is.

[rodknock]

of course the reserve is down after every one gets there cut!!!!!

[Get Real]

No problem. We will just find another way to squeeze the last Bath out of the poor farmers.

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

 

You're talking rubbish and nonsense Eric, spouting numbers you can't support, don't provide a link to and don't even know what they are.

 

Budget to GDP deficit percentages have been posted earlier, they are 2.5% of late, not the 17% you claim.

 

You're making yourself look very silly by just pulling numbers that you can't substantiate, out of nowhere.

 

Suggest you put up or shut up!

Forum rules don't allow link of that piece of information from other media. Since you are such a sport, the information is in the opinion piece of BP. Enjoy.

[chiang mai]

7 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Forum rules don't allow link of that piece of information from other media. Since you are such a sport, the information is in the opinion piece of BP. Enjoy.

The article is also nonsense, don't you bother to stop and question what some of these people write or do you just take it on face value!

 

Measuring a deficit against state revenue is self serving, it's a way to make something look much worse than it is. Measuring budget deficits against GDP, the much larger figure, is the accepted international standard for measuring these things, that way comparisons can be made with other countries - measuring them against state revenue doesn't allow for an equal comparison.

 

Also, he starts off his piece by saying, ' none of them have provided an explanation as to why budget deficits have increasing during the past few years".  The reason why they haven't explained is because they haven't been increasing, simple as that, see the earlier figures I posted, the only increase has been from 2015 to 2016.

 

He goes on to state that the budget deficit has increased from 2016 to 2017. Yes it has, the government said nine months ago it would and now it has, it was a purposeful act that was well announced in advance. He also complains about the rapid depletion of TR account funds, I guess he hasn't seen the historic graph inside the 2016 budget either, maybe I'll send it to him.

 

I could keep going on this but it's pointless. The article is designed to stir up peoples emotions and is laced with non fact and none news.

 

[candide]

If I dare introduce myself in this debate, the two ratios discussed before measure different things, so it's not surprising that they are different.

However there is a big problem of coherence between the two measures.

In the not cited article in which a minister defends the drop in treasury reserves, there is a table of official figures provided by by the controller's general office. This table shows an increase of deficit of 60% from 2013 to 2014. However, in 2014, there was nearly no increase in gdp. How can the ratio remain stable at 2.5% when the numerator increases by 60% and the denominator is more or less stable?

[The Deerhunter]

16 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Collective patting each other backs will not vindicate the junta government massive borrowings and ability to pay when tax and revenues remain stagnant. They are smart to write themselves an amnesty. 

Collective back patting can't be any worse than the last elected government's rampant nepotism.  If the amnesty doesn't work as you suggest, there is always Dubai too,   Can't imagine where you got that idea of an amnesty from.  Oh yes, I remember.  Dubai again!

 

Edited February 9, 2017 by The Deerhunter

[Eric Loh]

13 hours ago, chiang mai said:

The article is also nonsense, don't you bother to stop and question what some of these people write or do you just take it on face value!

 

Measuring a deficit against state revenue is self serving, it's a way to make something look much worse than it is. Measuring budget deficits against GDP, the much larger figure, is the accepted international standard for measuring these things, that way comparisons can be made with other countries - measuring them against state revenue doesn't allow for an equal comparison.

 

 

I see that you care less for financial discipline. Revenue deficit signifies government's own revenue collection is insufficient to meet expenditures. A higher revenue deficit by this junta government than previous governments is a warning to them to curtail its expenditure or increase tax. Oh, they can't as they have committed to buy the submarines and increase generals pay in their +2% defence budget. So increase tax seem their likely route to pay for their extravagance.

[chiang mai]

Just now, Eric Loh said:

I see that you care less for financial discipline. Revenue deficit signifies government's own revenue collection is insufficient to meet expenditures. A higher revenue deficit by this junta government than previous governments is a warning to them to curtail its expenditure or increase tax. Oh, they can't as they have committed to buy the submarines and increase generals pay in their +2% defence budget. So increase tax seem their likely route to pay for their extravagance.

Actually I care very much for financial discipline, what I don't care for is changing the international standards for comparison, in order to make an OK thing look like a bad thing.

 

We don't agree regarding the higher deficit, again it's a matter of international comparison and standards if you like. A deficit of 2.5% of GDP is very low and there's plenty of wiggle room to push that higher without threatening stability or the credit rating, especially in times of economic stagnation globally where the need is to stimulate the economy.

 

As for defence spending this year, once again your numbers are wrong, defence spending as a percentage of GDP is around 1.5%, which compare very favourably with other countries in the region such as Vietnam at 2.3% of GDP.

 

http://thediplomat.com/2016/09/the-truth-about-thailands-2017-defense-budget-hike/

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html

[Eric Loh]

12 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Actually I care very much for financial discipline, what I don't care for is changing the international standards for comparison, in order to make an OK thing look like a bad thing.

 

We don't agree regarding the higher deficit, again it's a matter of international comparison and standards if you like. A deficit of 2.5% of GDP is very low and there's plenty of wiggle room to push that higher without threatening stability or the credit rating, especially in times of economic stagnation globally where the need is to stimulate the economy.

 

As for defence spending this year, once again your numbers are wrong, defence spending as a percentage of GDP is around 1.5%, which compare very favourably with other countries in the region such as Vietnam at 2.3% of GDP.

 

http://thediplomat.com/2016/09/the-truth-about-thailands-2017-defense-budget-hike/

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html

 

Rating agencies monitor the revenue deficit when re-assessing the credit rating of sovereign countries. It is an important piece of financial health evaluation data.

 

The 2.5% deficit of GDP is dependable on the forecast GDP and inflation. We better hope there is no crisis this year and that Thailand will achieve 3.7-4.2% GDP and inflation not exceeding 2%.

 

Singapore defence budget is 5.7%. What's that got to do with Thailand.

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

 

Rating agencies monitor the revenue deficit when re-assessing the credit rating of sovereign countries. It is an important piece of financial health evaluation data.

 

The 2.5% deficit of GDP is dependable on the forecast GDP and inflation. We better hope there is no crisis this year and that Thailand will achieve 3.7-4.2% GDP and inflation not exceeding 2%.

 

Singapore defence budget is 5.7%. What's that got to do with Thailand.

 

That's fine for rating agencies but we're not comparing the rating agency views of economic health, the comparison is between countries, so let's be sure to compare apples and apples when we're talking about these things,

 

Well if Sing. is 5.7% and Vietnam is 2.3%, Thailand and 1.5% looks positively stingy and too low, I can't see what you're complaining about.

[gk10002000]

22 hours ago, joy16 said:

 

From this chart, you can see that the highest treasury reserves is in September every when all tax and revenue are collected from every sectors and then it will be decreased sharply every year. 

 

So. I think the low treasury reserves in this period of the year is normal.

 

And for the old news, I think they compare apple to orange because they can't compare TR in May vs TR in December or January.

The cyclic due to incoming revenues makes sense.  But I do see an overall trend downward.  Not surprising given some of the business and tourism issues. Now if the Revenues had stayed high and the overall balance kept going down, then there might be more things going on

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

 

That's fine for rating agencies but we're not comparing the rating agency views of economic health, the comparison is between countries, so let's be sure to compare apples and apples when we're talking about these things,

 

Well if Sing. is 5.7% and Vietnam is 2.3%, Thailand and 1.5% looks positively stingy and too low, I can't see what you're complaining about.

I see that you consider rating agencies view as insignificant even though the rating is important and influence borrowings. You not even comparing with the right tools. 

 

1.5% to GDP is USD6B+ compare to Vietnam 2.3% to GDP at USD5B and they have a territorial dispute with China. That's not positively stingy. Re-adjust your eye glass and see the amount of wasted armaments and the number of generals. 

[chiang mai]

4 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

I see that you consider rating agencies view as insignificant even though the rating is important and influence borrowings. You not even comparing with the right tools. 

 

1.5% to GDP is USD6B+ compare to Vietnam 2.3% to GDP at USD5B and they have a territorial dispute with China. That's not positively stingy. Re-adjust your eye glass and see the amount of wasted armaments and the number of generals. 

You see lots of things that weren't written or said!

[Baerboxer]

On 2/9/2017 at 11:25 AM, smutcakes said:

Probably best we not talk about Governments lying.....

 

Why, do you think you know a government that doesn't.......................

 

Are you still claiming PTP never lied, Thaksin never did any wrong ever, ?

[smutcakes]

1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Why, do you think you know a government that doesn't.......................

 

Are you still claiming PTP never lied, Thaksin never did any wrong ever, ?

No, all Governments lie to some extent, that is why i don't go in every thread and whine about previous Governments doing it, like you as if you are making some kind of point....

[Shawn0000]

On 2/9/2017 at 9:33 AM, chiang mai said:

Have you bothered to even look at the historic graph of Treasury Reserve account balances over recent years, the current scenario is normal by historic comparison.

Except according to the graph you just posted it is not normal at all but actually the lowest except for March 2012, not sure why it went down so low in 2012 but that year there was a large increase in spending on education and healthcare.  The only other years that come close are 2010 when we had the unrest and 2011 when we had the massive flooding, both of which probably took a lot from the treasury, but both of which also saw a low over 25% higher than present levels.  What is the excuse this year?  Record tourist levels and no corruption in the rice deals?  As for your post saying that low reserves has zero effect on the value of the Baht, that would actually depend on the markets, if this raises suspicion then of course it could effect the value of the baht.

[chiang mai]

4 minutes ago, Shawn0000 said:

Except according to the graph you just posted it is not normal at all but actually the lowest except for March 2012, not sure why it went down so low in 2012 but that year there was a large increase in spending on education and healthcare.  The only other years that come close are 2010 when we had the unrest and 2011 when we had the massive flooding, both of which probably took a lot from the treasury, but both of which also saw a low over 25% higher than present levels.  What is the excuse this year?  Record tourist levels and no corruption in the rice deals?  As for your post saying that low reserves has zero effect on the value of the Baht, that would actually depend on the markets, if this raises suspicion then of course it could effect the value of the baht.

Is it normal at the macro level, without going over each year in detail, I don't know. But is it normal in that inflows and outflows are cyclical around the same time every year, to broadly the same extent, absolutely, the precise extent of those inflows and outflows is another subject however.

 

And for absolutely certain, whatever happens to treasury Reserves will have absolutely zero impact on the value of THB. We've seen tanks on the streets, snipers killing civilians down-town, governement officials be accused of 500 billion losses through incompetence, bird flu and goodness knows what else, none of those things impacted on the value of THB. Why? Because THB is not a freely convertible currency plus it is so small that even a slight tweak by BOT can send it in either direction. Plus none of those events I mentioned actually had an impact on tourism or exports and that means exporters keep selling the Dollars they earned and buying Baht.

 

[The Deerhunter]

On 2/10/2017 at 3:07 PM, Eric Loh said:

I see that you care less for financial discipline. Revenue deficit signifies government's own revenue collection is insufficient to meet expenditures. A higher revenue deficit by this junta government than previous governments is a warning to them to curtail its expenditure or increase tax. Oh, they can't as they have committed to buy the submarines and increase generals pay in their +2% defence budget. So increase tax seem their likely route to pay for their extravagance.

And your point is......?  No different from any other government before, here or anywhere.  Self interest always trumps the rights of the people.  The pun on the name Trump was intended.