Brexit and the £

[dentonian]

With Theresa May due to trigger Article 50 before the end of March, how much will the £ drop again?

 

It's already been a bad year for British expats especially, seeing a 20% drop in the value of their Pensions and Incomes over the last 12 months.

Most economists are predicting another decrease of 5-10% when Article 50 is actually triggered and not much change for the following 2 years.

 

I usually make a yearly transfer of funds around April time.

Last year I received 54 baht - £1.

Although the BKK transfer rate is now at 42.5 and likely to drop further, this is just a reminder that this may be the last opportunity for many to transfer now before Article 50 is triggered.

 

Wonder how many expats can't meet the monthly financial requirements for extensions anymore.

[daveAustin]

40. Couple that with ever-rising costs here. Gone are the days of 76 to pound. A lot will be heading home methinks.

[colinneil]

28 minutes ago, daveAustin said:

40. Couple that with ever-rising costs here. Gone are the days of 76 to pound. A lot will be heading home methinks.

Gone are the days of 76 to the pound, how can you say that?

First time i came here was in 96.....44 baht to the pound, 2 years later january 98 .... 92 baht to the pound.

Pound is down now, but it will bounce back, maybe not this year , but it will happen.

No i will not be going back, never even thinking such thoughts.

[theoldgit]

23 minutes ago, colinneil said:

No i will not be going back, never even thinking such thoughts.

You may not be going back, and I'm pleased to hear that, but I'm aware of a few that have either done so or are seriously considering it.
I'm also aware of a few people who now cannot meet the financial requirement to extend their stay here, and may have very little option.
A friend of mine, a retired banker who is pretty worldly wise in these matters, also shares my view that the GBP has a lot further to fall yet, and is certainly hedging at the moment. 

[colinneil]

Maybe the pound has further to fall, but i am ok.

If i run out of money, i will just have to be a kept man.     

Teerak can i have 10 baht please.

[Kwasaki]

2 hours ago, dentonian said:

I usually make a yearly transfer of funds around April time.

Well that makes me think you are not hard done by,  l get mine every 4 weeks. 

 

2 hours ago, dentonian said:

Wonder how many expats can't meet the monthly financial requirements for extensions anymore.

Ans :-  Planning. 

[OJAS]

3 hours ago, theoldgit said:

A friend of mine, a retired banker who is pretty worldly wise in these matters, also shares my view that the GBP has a lot further to fall yet, and is certainly hedging at the moment. 

To parity (and well below) against both the EUR and USD, I would imagine.

 

And how long before the spectre of GBP parity with the THB were to poke its head over the horizon, I wonder?

[emilymat]

It almost feels like the pound is now becoming a junk currency.

 

I bought some cash over last week as I share the OP's view it will drop even further after triggering of article 50.

 

I voted 'remain' in the referendum but was amazed by the amount of ex-pats living here who were enthusiastic Brexiteers. I honestly did vote on the 'broader' question of what I felt was in the best interests of my offsprings etc, but I confess I expected a fall in the pound if the result went 'exit'. 

 

The fact is, the vast majority of UK residents are not concerned with exchange rates (most of the time). When the pound goes down, the stock market goes up, and the Daily Express  etc can have banner headlines "Britain is Booming". etc.

 

This year I think will be the first time I have to renew the retirement extension on an income/bank deposit combination to meet the 800,000 baht as 40 baht/pound will see me just dip under the 800,000.

 

The tragedy is, the Thai's seem to still consider people like me as rich !!!  At least the weather stays constant - which is the main issue with me as dreary wet winters in the UK would have killed me off by now, I'm sure.    

 

 

[i claudius]

I am as good at making predictions as any of the experts in the financial sector , as i have shown over the years , it will either go up or down , because that is what i am constantly reading in the financial news , it changes from day to bloody day .

[Kwasaki]

41 minutes ago, i claudius said:

I am as good at making predictions as any of the experts in the financial sector , as i have shown over the years , it will either go up or down , because that is what i am constantly reading in the financial news , it changes from day to bloody day .

Yeah agree with you l'm an expert too  and l wouldn't call the £ a junk currency but l would the Euro,  as still stated on trading sites.

 

" The pound is the official currency of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The pound sterling is the fourth most-traded currency in the foreign exchange market. It's known locally as a quid."    

[503726]

40 by Q2 or a 5% drop (i.e 1.22 USD now down to 1.15 by 1 July).  After that, I'm betting that the rate will stay at 40 or 1.15 USD ish until the end of the exit negotiation when we'll see what the deal is like & how the British economy is doing.  If there was a snap election, my bet would be the rate would jump 10% or so.

 

The OBR has raised its growth forecast for 2017 as the post referendum risks have not materialised. The general strategy of investing in productivity for growth doesn't sound convincing to me but for the time being, the weaker GBP should encourage UK exports and discourage imports. Apparently, we do have the price inflation from imports but have managed not to increase export volume much somehow - not sure how that is possible quite but it seems British!

 

 

[emilymat]

You never here the government admit the weak pound increases the foreign debt repayments substantially. It's all a short-termism mentality at the moment.

[evadgib]

It will get worse before it gets better, but it WILL get better when Britain is finally uncoupled from something they never signed up for in the first place.

Edited March 10, 2017 by evadgib

[taipeir]

It will get worse before it gets better, but it WILL get better when Britain is finally uncoupled from something they never signed up for in the first place.

Eh Britain signed up for everything in the first place what are you talking about?

Don't you know your own history?

Britain even moaned through the entire time it was in the EU looking for opt outs for this and that and it never joined the euro zone.It was also Tony Blair who opened full immigration rights to Eastern Europeans before other European countries.

Sick of you moaners see how long your precious Britain lasts most likely it'll be England and Wales within a few years. Scotland and Northern Ireland didn't sign up for getting dragged out of the EU.

How will it get better exactly?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[taipeir]

Yeah agree with you l'm an expert too  and l wouldn't call the £ a junk currency but l would the Euro,  as still stated on trading sites.
 
" The pound is the official currency of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The pound sterling is the fourth most-traded currency in the foreign exchange market. It's known locally as a quid."    

Yeah the euro is a junk currency.

GBP going to parity with junk then :).



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[oxo1947]

On 8/3/2560 at 9:23 AM, daveAustin said:

 A lot will be heading home methinks.

Well if they time it right they will be able to catch the summer......its being held on a Tuesday this year...............

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, taipeir said:

Yeah the euro is a junk currency.
GBP going to parity with junk then :).

 

GDP maybe oh guru we will see, not that l give a monkeys. 

[teddog]

12 hours ago, taipeir said:

Eh Britain signed up for everything in the first place what are you talking about?

Don't you know your own history?

Britain even moaned through the entire time it was in the EU looking for opt outs for this and that and it never joined the euro zone.It was also Tony Blair who opened full immigration rights to Eastern Europeans before other European countries.

Sick of you moaners see how long your precious Britain lasts most likely it'll be England and Wales within a few years. Scotland and Northern Ireland didn't sign up for getting dragged out of the EU.

How will it get better exactly?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

All good news for England,Scotland out of the union,no more Barnett for them,or anything actually excepting taxation for their exports that trundle through England.

 We have been taken for mugs in England,hundreds of thousands Goan Indians signing up for Portugese passports,never to live there in Portugal,black Mozambicans,by the tens of thousands too,Somalians  given Dutch passports like confetti  never to live there, asylum seekers dumped in Germany,no one speaking German,all English speakers,   held there by border checks .  Now all these .... are on welfare,and in a way could be said are an enemy of the (UK) people.  Crime rates on the east coast are deplorable

[Goldpanner]

On 11/03/2017 at 0:08 PM, taipeir said:

Eh Britain signed up for everything in the first place what are you talking about?

Don't you know your own history?

Britain even moaned through the entire time it was in the EU looking for opt outs for this and that and it never joined the euro zone.It was also Tony Blair who opened full immigration rights to Eastern Europeans before other European countries.

Sick of you moaners see how long your precious Britain lasts most likely it'll be England and Wales within a few years. Scotland and Northern Ireland didn't sign up for getting dragged out of the EU.

How will it get better exactly?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I would suggest you check your history sunshine. Back in the 70's The UK people were asked if they wanted to join the Eurpean Common Market. We were never asked if we wanted a Political Union. Ted heath knew though and thats what he wanted but it was never mentioned to the British people.

A Common European Market was and still is a great idea but people get power crazed and want to tell others what to do.

A Political Union with Europe was never going to last. You cannot have 2 Governments. We have Westminster. At least with UK Politicians we can throw eggs at them.

 

[jadee]

There's a good article on the Independent.co.uk today about where the pound may go after Article 50 is triggered. Some of the banks quoted feel that the pound won't drop further. One bank feels the pound may drop slightly to $1.19. 

[elliss]

On 3/8/2017 at 9:23 AM, daveAustin said:

40. Couple that with ever-rising costs here. Gone are the days of 76 to pound. A lot will be heading home methinks.

             Those  who can go back , ??     many have burned  their bridges , trapped  in LOS.

               GBP , has  devalued  by some 25  per cent , since  brexit vote .

               That is  only a  practice  run ,  cold ahead , minus 40 ..

[Kwasaki]

On 3/11/2017 at 7:08 PM, taipeir said:

it'll be England and Wales within a few years

Hope so  only one more hanger on to get rid of then. 

UK should get out of the UN too IMO.

Edited March 15, 2017 by Kwasaki

[al007]

This is pure crystal ball territory

 

American interest rates also have a significant impact

 

short term probably turbulent but 2/3 yrs probably back to in excess of 1.5 to US dollar, and of course much stronger vs thai bhat

[robertson468]

On 08/03/2017 at 10:24 AM, theoldgit said:

You may not be going back, and I'm pleased to hear that, but I'm aware of a few that have either done so or are seriously considering it.
I'm also aware of a few people who now cannot meet the financial requirement to extend their stay here, and may have very little option.
A friend of mine, a retired banker who is pretty worldly wise in these matters, also shares my view that the GBP has a lot further to fall yet, and is certainly hedging at the moment. 

He is not the first Fiscal Knob (Bank of England Governor!) who has been a prophet of financial doom and gloom as a result of Brexit.  Today the the £ against the baht went up.  The baht is also forecast to remain weak for the foreseeable future.  They are all guessing and no one, but no one can give a clear, or honest prediction viz-a-viz the £ and baht.

[goldenbrwn1]

I am no economist but I would of thought the signing of article 50 has been priced in already. The UK government have been saying since the summer that it will be signed by the end of march 2017. I'm quite sure everyone has heard this..

 

In my opinion the pound will now be reacting to the actual negotiations.

 

 

Edited March 15, 2017 by goldenbrwn1

[sammieuk1]

Brexit massacre here pound in Tesco exchange UK 39 Bhat the only light is the many euro elections ie France and the EU imploding .The expats are the only ones paying the price from day one and its kin painful.

[sammieuk1]

On ‎09‎/‎03‎/‎2017 at 4:42 AM, Kwasaki said:

Yeah agree with you l'm an expert too  and l wouldn't call the £ a junk currency but l would the Euro,  as still stated on trading sites.

 

" The pound is the official currency of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The pound sterling is the fourth most-traded currency in the foreign exchange market. It's known locally as a quid."    

Or by its new name the 75p

[little mary sunshine]

Bloomberg predicts an additional 5% devaluation......but

could possibly go to 8%.......

[whatawonderfulday]

23 minutes ago, goldenbrwn1 said:

I am no economist but I would of thought the signing of article 50 has been priced in already. The UK government have been saying since the summer that it will be signed by the end of march 2017. I'm quite sure everyone has heard this..

 

In my opinion the pound will now be reacting to the actual negotiations.

 

 

I agree and the markets have already considered this.  What happens 2 years after Brexit is of course not known but the other play is that there is an awful lot of money suggesting that after Brexit the EU will implode (along with the Euro) with 2 other countries existing the EU so hence artificially valuing upwards the GBP ( of course the dollar will be the big winner)

[timewilltell]

I don't think the pound will drop much further against the baht. Currency markets price in expectations long in advance and Brexit is almost certainly well priced in already. The dollar / pound rate will likely fall and expect the Euro to collapse as events unfold in Europe and the conflicts between governments all affecting the Euro through lack of consensus. Draghi is out of bullets and no European country is stepping up to the plate to take over now that monetarism has run its course. The reason the pound will will not drop much further against the baht is that the baht will weaken against the dollar also and to a much greater extent as interest rates in the US recover and the risk of holding Asian currencies begins to outweigh the premium interest they pay begins to dissipate whereupon the baht will be selling like hot cakes as the dollars are repatriated. The pound will probably stay in the current range up to about 50 to the baht and ruse further once UK interest rates rise in 2018/19. That's my take and reasoning anyhow.