Thai baht set to weaken

[Brian Scott]

2 hours ago, aslimversgwm said:

I'll be happy when it hits 50 to the pound. Oh how I love those Brexit <deleted>! 

You and me both

[SoilSpoil]

I was planning to buy a small condo in France or Spain, so let the Baht strengthen a bit more first. 

[Surasak]

6 hours ago, meatboy said:

looks like the fortune tellers are busy.

The point being, who makes the fortune?

[dageurreotype]

4 hours ago, overherebc said:

Great news. I just lined to my wife to get one extra Beer with the shopping.

Or am I being a bit rash?

Yes you are. New taxes have taken immediate effect. Chateaux Naff Du Crap now 994 up from 840 at Macro today.

[Surasak]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

 

Taking into account how relatively poorly the economy is doing, the rising unemployment numbers (despite the protestations from official channels), the decline in quality tourism (most zero baht Chinese tourists do not count, as they contribute so little to the local economy), and capital outflows, one would have expected it to fall to 38-40 to the dollar by now. Something is propping it up. 

With my outflows, could it be me?

[natway09]

Actually Spidermike when was the last time you looked at exports from Thailand ?

Have a look around Rayong & you will see huge manufacturing bases, most of it for export.

There are literally millions of Burmese , Cambodians & some Laos people working in this country who help

make Thailand  a great exporting  country.

Don't hold your breath waiting for any meaningful depreciation in the Baht.

The big countries have their problems as well 

[Surasak]

2 hours ago, sandmonster said:

One spotty graduate at Maybank sticks a finger in the air and thats news ? 

Only if he licked his first or how would he know which way the wind is blowing

[Surasak]

2 hours ago, sandmonster said:

One spotty graduate at Maybank sticks a finger in the air and thats news ? 

Only if he licked his finger first or how would he know which way the wind is blowing

[HangDongRider]

6 hours ago, maewang99 said:

but how could it get any weaker?

 

10 cents for a haircut......... and a shave???

 

Please tell me the shop, where the haircut with shave costs only  3 or 4 Baht.

[Anthony Loh]

Please tell me the shop, where the haircut with shave costs only  3 or 4 Baht.

This must be a joke, what can we do in 3/4 baht?


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[Allstars]

3 hours ago, sandmonster said:

One spotty graduate at Maybank sticks a finger in the air and thats news ? 

 

When I look at how the Baht has performed since that spotty graduate put his finger up in the air, I guess he must have wetted it to feel which side the wind was blowing from.

[overherebc]

52 minutes ago, dageurreotype said:

Yes you are. New taxes have taken immediate effect. Chateaux Naff Du Crap now 994 up from 840 at Macro today.

I kid you not, one shop I went in to buy a bottle that I looked at on the rack that said, at first glance Cote Du Rhone. I picked it up and after a second or two I realised that the Gothic style script actually said Goats Do Roam.

It was South African I think.

[foxboy]

4 hours ago, aslimversgwm said:

Obviously you're not living here on a small pension like tens of thousands throughout the world so I won't 'pipe down' And it isn't 'done and dusted' as you seem to imagine. Way to go my ill-informed friend.

I'm pretty sure everyone who voted for Brexit was doing so in the interests of their own situation in the uk, not any 'poor' pensioners living in Thailand

[champers]

I voted remain but accept we are out. I didn't have a strong conviction for either set of arguments put forward and it has been shown that both campaigns were scaremongering and downright lies. I have since retired to Thailand and feel I am suffering some short term pain which will ultimately become long term gain. It does appear that Sterling is looking to be a better haven than other currencies; the Euro in particular. Thailand has its problems but is basically covering them up (loss of face issue) but the truth always comes out and there is too much smoke around for there not to be a fire.

[Anthony Loh]

I voted remain but accept we are out. I didn't have a strong conviction for either set of arguments put forward and it has been shown that both campaigns were scaremongering and downright lies. I have since retired to Thailand and feel I am suffering some short term pain which will ultimately become long term gain. It does appear that Sterling is looking to be a better haven than other currencies; the Euro in particular. Thailand has its problems but is basically covering them up (loss of face issue) but the truth always comes out and there is too much smoke around for there not to be a fire.

Paper can't hold the fire! There be a day, the true will be known by all people.


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[billybog]

40 was fantastic...remember back then getting 41 every once in a while.

[bazza73]

It's a race to the bottom by all currencies. That's government policy everywhere, not just Thailand.

[gamini]

6 hours ago, aslimversgwm said:

I'll be happy when it hits 50 to the pound. Oh how I love those Brexit <deleted>! 

Unfortunately, that's not gonna happen. I think the pound will end up somewhere between 25 and 39 baht. but

[GOLDBUGGY]

4 hours ago, HangDongRider said:

Please tell me the shop, where the haircut with shave costs only  3 or 4 Baht.

Yeah!

 

Even I pay about 100 baht for a haircut.

 

From a Barbour who cuts hair by day, and then the trees along the highway by evening.

[GOLDBUGGY]

9 minutes ago, bazza73 said:

It's a race to the bottom by all currencies. That's government policy everywhere, not just Thailand.

No! I don't think so!

 

The US Dollar should remain strong, pending any horrific news. It may even get stronger if the interest rates go up again, and like recently. Which many analysis expect in the near term. With good economical news there isn't much standing in it's way to go higher.

[oxo1947]

So just for a financial dummy like me----(and quite happy to admit it)

 

Is the Thai baht Connected to the $USA....

Or is it the Hugh amount of tourism money flowing in that makes it so strong ?

How is it connected

How do they manipulate it to stay connected

what is the point of it being connected.

What is the point of having a very strong Baht.

 

[wakeupplease]

8 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

 

Taking into account how relatively poorly the economy is doing, the rising unemployment numbers (despite the protestations from official channels), the decline in quality tourism (most zero baht Chinese tourists do not count, as they contribute so little to the local economy), and capital outflows, one would have expected it to fall to 38-40 to the dollar by now. Something is propping it up. 

But still the least miserable country in the world says Bloomberg

 

Ho Ho Ho someone is getting backhanders on that comment

 

But your right you can see it coming if you look close the signs are there the big bang is on its way

[anon4546543]

As I am about to bring a few thousand dollars here and I get 26 to the dollar, this is good news. Anyone have any good advise as to whether I should hold off for a while or do it as soon as the baht drops a little?

[bangkokorbust]

As I am about to bring a few thousand dollars here and I get 26 to the dollar, this is good news. Anyone have any good advise as to whether I should hold off for a while or do it as soon as the baht drops a little?

You have oz dollars. I wouldnt stress over that amount. Just find the best exchange booth on the day.

Sent from my Redmi Note 3 using Tapatalk

[anon4546543]

Just now, bangkokorbust said:

You have oz dollars. I wouldnt stress over that amount. Just find the best exchange booth on the day.

Sent from my Redmi Note 3 using Tapatalk
 

Sorry mate. My sense of understatement. One hundred thousand

[GOLDBUGGY]

6 minutes ago, oxo1947 said:

So just for a financial dummy like me----(and quite happy to admit it)

 

Is the Thai baht Connected to the $USA....

Or is it the Hugh amount of tourism money flowing in that makes it so strong ?

How is it connected

How do they manipulate it to stay connected

what is the point of it being connected.

What is the point of having a very strong Baht.

 

When you consider that most Commodities are traded in US Dollars, like Oil, Gold, Coffee, Rubber, Rice, and so on, then the US Dollar is connected in one way or another to all currencies. A Higher US Dollar will give you more money for your Exports, like Rubber and Rice, but it will also cost you more for Imports, like the fuel for your tractor. So a double bladed sword, so to speak.

 

Tourism only accounts for 10 to 15% of the GDP for Thailand, although personally I think it is higher than this with all things consider. But any money gained from Tourism does certainly help the economy, and thus increases the value of that currency.  

 

Not sure if you can call this manipulation. But generally when the economy of a certain country does good, then their currency does good also. When Oil and Mining was on the high profit end, countries like Australia did very well and their currency sky rocketed. Maybe not so much from the sale of these Commodities, but maybe more so from the influx on new money for construction of new projects and the high wage employment of many people there.

 

Since they use the US Dollars for most Commodities, then in way, and if you want to buy something from an Exporting Country, then you are connected to it. Some countries like Saudi Arabia actually track their currency (Riyal) to the US Dollar. When you considered that by far their greatest Export Product, is Oil, and Oil is traded in US Dollars, then it makes sense for them to do this.

 

When your country has high debt, and you need to pay this debt off in different currencies, then it helps when you currency is strong. It also helps when it come to buy Imports. But Thailand doesn't have high debt and they are an Exporting Country, so in a lot of ways it makes no sense to me why they would want a high Baht.

[bangrak]

How odd, it seems nobody's wondering about the games possibly played by the BoT to keep the Baht so over-rated, and why the decision-makers would do it, especially to serve whom in particular... A wild guess, maybe like kind of a flock of very-influential Thai(-Chinese) big-business owners 'exporting' a lot of the money they make, more or less honestly, in the country, or, the odd mega Singaporian (and Malaysian) funds enjoying some preferential exchange conditions which 'play on the Baht', just to say something...? But this is of course a far-fetched conspiracy theory and totally un-realistic...

 

[muffy]

11 hours ago, Just1Voice said:

I'll be happy when it hits 40 to the dollar. 

 

I remember 55 to a dollar .

[hawker9000]

5 hours ago, GOLDBUGGY said:

When you consider that most Commodities are traded in US Dollars, like Oil, Gold, Coffee, Rubber, Rice, and so on, then the US Dollar is connected in one way or another to all currencies. A Higher US Dollar will give you more money for your Exports, like Rubber and Rice, but it will also cost you more for Imports, like the fuel for your tractor. So a double bladed sword, so to speak.

 

Tourism only accounts for 10 to 15% of the GDP for Thailand, although personally I think it is higher than this with all things consider. But any money gained from Tourism does certainly help the economy, and thus increases the value of that currency.  

 

Not sure if you can call this manipulation. But generally when the economy of a certain country does good, then their currency does good also. When Oil and Mining was on the high profit end, countries like Australia did very well and their currency sky rocketed. Maybe not so much from the sale of these Commodities, but maybe more so from the influx on new money for construction of new projects and the high wage employment of many people there.

 

Since they use the US Dollars for most Commodities, then in way, and if you want to buy something from an Exporting Country, then you are connected to it. Some countries like Saudi Arabia actually track their currency (Riyal) to the US Dollar. When you considered that by far their greatest Export Product, is Oil, and Oil is traded in US Dollars, then it makes sense for them to do this.

 

When your country has high debt, and you need to pay this debt off in different currencies, then it helps when you currency is strong. It also helps when it come to buy Imports. But Thailand doesn't have high debt and they are an Exporting Country, so in a lot of ways it makes no sense to me why they would want a high Baht.

I believe the Thai baht is a "managed" currency; managed by the central bank (BoT).  It's not "controlled" or pegged but neither does it float 100%.  It's somewhere in between those two extremes.  I think the idea is to smooth out volatility a bit and discourage speculators.  That policy is accomplished in part using foreign currency reserves on hand via interventions.  No one can say for sure that policy moves over any given period of time are or are not politically driven; that's always possible.  But bucking a strong tide running against you for a long time is an expensive and non-sustainable proposition for a country like Thailand.  WRT the USD, I tend to think coming interest rate hikes by the FED, including one possibly to come very shortly, while certainly something tending to push the dollar higher, are also pretty much already factored into most trader and institutional thinking...

 

Tourism may be only 10-15% of the Thai GDP, but it seems like it must be high-velocity money and small businesses and employment probably react more quickly and more visibly to slumps in it than do many other sectors of the economy. But I'm not sure the impact of that one particular weakness alone could overcome the efforts of the BoT if the economic stars are reasonably aligned otherwise.

 

[IMA_FARANG]

The federal Reserve bank prime  rate is due to be raised in March and that is likely to make the U.S. dollar stronger against other currencies including the Thai Baht.

And, yes, a stronger U.S. dollar means a flow of speculative money out of Thailand and other Asian economies into a stronger U.S Dollar  is a possibility.

But we will see what does indeed happen.