Victory in state vote shows Germany's Merkel on course to retain power

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Victory in state vote shows Germany's Merkel on course to retain power

By Matthias Inverardi and Joseph Nasr

REUTERS
 

       

Armin Laschet, top candidate of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) reacts on first exit polls after the regional state elections of North Rhine-Westphalia, in Duesseldorf, Germany, May 14, 2017. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach

 

DUESSELDORF/BERLIN, Germany (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives defeated the ruling Social Democrats (SPD) in a key state election on Sunday, exit polls showed, boosting their hopes of retaining power in September's national vote.

 

Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) saw a surge in support in Germany's most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), which is home to one in five German voters and has often been an indicator of national electoral trends.

 

The CDU won 33 percent, up from 26.3 percent in 2012, according to projections on public broadcaster ARD.

 

The CDU focused its campaign in NRW on attacking the SPD for failing to tackle local issues like crumbling infrastructure that causes huge traffic jams, rising crime and an underperforming education system.

 

But the conservatives, who have now defeated the SPD in three state elections since the end of March, are hoping to build on the momentum in the run-up to the federal vote on Sept. 24, where Merkel is seeking a fourth term.

 

Merkel's image as an experienced leader who can provide stability resonates with many risk-averse Germans.

 

Western Europe's longest-serving current leader, Merkel is seen by many in Germany and in the European Union as an experienced negotiator to guide tough talks with Britain on its exit from the bloc. She is also seen as a champion of free trade.

 

Merkel stood firm in the face of heated criticism at home and abroad for opening Germany's borders in 2015 to more than one million mainly Muslim asylum seekers, a measure that hurt her popularity and contributed to the rise of the nationalist party Alternative for Germany (AfD).

 

Merkel's credentials have also been enhanced by an economy that has grown every year since 2010, driven by a solid labour market, a booming construction sector, rebounding exports as well as increased state spending and private consumption.

 

SCHULZ IMPACT FADES

 

The SPD, which has ruled NRW for most of the past half century, plunged to 31.5 percent from 39.1 percent, casting a shadow over their national election hopes.

 

The party had surged ahead of the CDU in the polls after it named former European Parliament President Martin Schulz as leader and candidate for chancellor in January. He vowed to roll back labour market reforms that increased the number of people in poorly paid jobs and to broaden social welfare.

 

But his message of "social equality" has lost much of its initial impact among voters who have been imploring him to spell out more concretely his plans and how much they would cost.

 

The SPD is 10 percentage points behind the CDU in national polls. The two parties currently rule together nationally in a "grand coalition".

 

The liberal Free Democrats, the CDU's preferred coalition partners, have bounced back to win almost 13 percent in NRW where the two allies are expected to have enough seats in the regional parliament to muster a majority. They would be hoping to replicate those results at the national level.

 

SPD state premier Hannelore Kraft quickly conceded defeat and said she would stand down as her party's local leader, which analysts called an attempt to shield Schulz from the fallout.

 

"It's clear that campaigning for the federal election is only just starting now," Schulz told the ARD broadcaster after the results, which he called a "bitter defeat".

 

HOLDING THE CENTRE

 

Analysts said the SPD's biggest problem was that Merkel had managed over her 12 years in power to pull her conservatives to the centre, making them attractive to left-wing and centrist voters who would otherwise vote SPD.

 

"Based on today's results, the main problem for the SPD is clear: SPD voters from the centre and centre-left are seriously considering the CDU as a preferred option," said Robert Vehrkamp of the Bertelsmann Foundation think-tank.

 

Merkel managed to revive her fortunes over the last two months with a victory in Saarland on March 26 and an upset defeat of the ruling SPD in Schleswig-Holstein a week ago.

 

Carsten Nickel, an analyst with Teneo Intelligence, said the NRW result was a sign that Merkel was on her way to re-election.

 

"The regional polls have vindicated Merkel's decision to keep calm in the face of the 2015 migration crisis and the difficult election year 2016," he said.

 

"It also confirms our earlier scepticism regarding the immediate effect of the SPD's surprise nomination of Schulz. Merkel remains on track for a fourth term in the chancellery."

 

(Writing by Joseph Nasr; Editing by Gareth Jones/Keith Weir)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-05-15

[lovelomsak]

I am sorry to hear this news. I was hoping she would be gone. As an outsider I see her doing more damage to ethnic Germans than good. IMHO she will singlehandedly destroy Germany and its culture. She is creating a turning point with her immigration policies where Germans will be a minority in their home country and have no voice in how it is ran or able to retain their own culture.She has destroyed a great nation.and will finish the job now if  eleted again.

[bannork]

7 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

I am sorry to hear this news. I was hoping she would be gone. As an outsider I see her doing more damage to ethnic Germans than good. IMHO she will singlehandedly destroy Germany and its culture. She is creating a turning point with her immigration policies where Germans will be a minority in their home country and have no voice in how it is ran or able to retain their own culture.She has destroyed a great nation.and will finish the job now if  eleted again.

The ethnic Germans have voted for her knowing full well her policies.

Britain is going to be very alone outside the EU.

[ilostmypassword]

8 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

I am sorry to hear this news. I was hoping she would be gone. As an outsider I see her doing more damage to ethnic Germans than good. IMHO she will singlehandedly destroy Germany and its culture. She is creating a turning point with her immigration policies where Germans will be a minority in their home country and have no voice in how it is ran or able to retain their own culture.She has destroyed a great nation.and will finish the job now if  eleted again.

Presumably, you are referring to the influx of Muslims into Germany. Currently about 6 percent of those living in Germany are Muslims.  About 30% of those are German citizens, mostly Turks whose residency in Germany precedes the administration of Merkel. Of the remainder many are also residents whose residency precedes that of Merkel. But even if that weren't the case,  what superpowers do you attribute to Muslims that will enable them to become a majority in Germany and destroy a great nation?

[Grouse]

Merkel is winning because her conservative  party  have taken over the middle ground. 

 

In in the U.K., Corbyn has allowed the Con Party to do the same. Not because TM policies are appealing to the middle ground but because Corbyn's Labour has been dragged way to the left. One would have thought they would have learnt something from Blairite tactics.

 

It also seems that the centre cannot be filled by the Lib Dems as they are still being pilloried for the student fees mistake.

 

So, is it too late to learn from Angela? ( I think she's great BTW)

[sweatalot]

I prefer Merkel CDU over Schulz SPD. In my opinion AFD would have been the best choice - but they were defeated by unisono media campaign and lack of politcal experience.

May Merkel after reelection  have the power to fix her monstrous mistake and take the immigrants out.  (hope is the last do die)

[Srikcir]

With Trump politically "missing in action," election of Merkel to Chancellor again will help maintain and strengthen the democratic institutions throughout the EU. I expect she'll work well with Tillerson and that's all that matters.

[elgordo38]

I often wonder why German voters are committing political hari kari? The same in France. Is voter subjugation starting to work on a mass scale or is the alternative worse?

[dunroaming]

8 hours ago, lovelomsak said:

I am sorry to hear this news. I was hoping she would be gone. As an outsider I see her doing more damage to ethnic Germans than good. IMHO she will singlehandedly destroy Germany and its culture. She is creating a turning point with her immigration policies where Germans will be a minority in their home country and have no voice in how it is ran or able to retain their own culture.She has destroyed a great nation.and will finish the job now if  eleted again.

I think that the vast majority of Germans realise that Merkel is the best choice by far.   Many will have been critical of her recent immigration policy but she is still the most electable for a stable and successful Germany.

[Roadman]

The only error Merkel made regards the mass immigration that occurred was she possibly failed to foresee the mass influx that occurred so quickly. Germany's birth rate has collapsed more than any other country in the world and with the massively productive country it is the economy was screaming out for workers. That Germany has absorbed that 1 million influx and moved on will be a positive in forward thinking Germans minds. However they are still short a few million and that will be the challenge for Merkel to address if she is re elected. I hope she is as along with Britians May they are miles ahead as the best leaders in the world. Especially when you look at the likes of the idiot in the US.

[ilostmypassword]

4 hours ago, Roadman said:

The only error Merkel made regards the mass immigration that occurred was she possibly failed to foresee the mass influx that occurred so quickly. Germany's birth rate has collapsed more than any other country in the world and with the massively productive country it is the economy was screaming out for workers. That Germany has absorbed that 1 million influx and moved on will be a positive in forward thinking Germans minds. However they are still short a few million and that will be the challenge for Merkel to address if she is re elected. I hope she is as along with Britians May they are miles ahead as the best leaders in the world. Especially when you look at the likes of the idiot in the US.

Well, whatever one may think of the recent refugee influx, Germany is a member of the EU and as such, citizens of all EU countries are allowed to migrate freely to Germany to work. So I don't know if Germany actually needs the refugees. I believe there is quite a large pool of available workers in Eastern Europe. And there will be a lot more once the UK leaves the EU.