What is going on with the Thai baht ?

[t8769]

From what you say Mattd, it looks like they are making all the same mistakes as The US, the UK, Ireland and other silly countries before the crash, out of control lending leading. Another crash in the making I'm afraid.

Good for tourists, when the Bhat crashes, bad for Thais.

[Mattd]

8 minutes ago, t8769 said:

From what you say Mattd, it looks like they are making all the same mistakes as The US, the UK, Ireland and other silly countries before the crash, out of control lending leading. Another crash in the making I'm afraid.

Good for tourists, when the Bhat crashes, bad for Thais.

In my experience it is far too easy for Thai's to borrow money here, has been forever I suppose. They also seem to forget to pay it back a lot as well, resulting in repossession.

As a footnote, I certainly do not want the THB to crash, I get paid in THB!!!

Edited June 13, 2017 by Mattd

[Kwasaki]

9 minutes ago, Mattd said:

Exactly what happened in 1997 when the crash came to Asia, spending cash that doesn't exist.

The Thai economy is not exactly booming, Military Junta in power, lower income tourists, rice exports way down etc. etc.

Well what happens later then you reckon if baht crashed to say 50 to $ the £ would still need to gain on $. ? 

[Mattd]

Just now, Kwasaki said:

Well what happens later then you reckon if baht crashed to say 50 to $ the £ would still need to gain on $. ? 

Wished that made sense!!

In any event, the USD - GBP difference in THB as a % would remain the same as that is determined by the exchange rate USD - GBP relative to each other.

[observer90210]

19 hours ago, Mattd said:

Quite the opposite really, if it was dropping like a rock, then I'm sure it would make a lot of folks on TV very happy!

THB is way too strong in my opinion and for no good reason.

Your analysis is pertinent. Today, to use easy currency reference let's take the US$. It will give you around 34,. something in THB. 

 

If the THB gets stronger, imagine 1 US$ that get's you only say 25THB - keeping the THB so strong will make Thailand more expensive for tourists, who will turn to other places to spend their  cash, or invest in places nearer to their homes if there is not a substantial difference in cheaper cost of living in Thailand.

 

Thai citizens and those who get income within Thailand would perpahps profit on a short term with a overcharged BHAT - but one can doubt it as even when international market prices drop, the prices don't follow in Thailand, despite the fact that imports would cost less. But Thai exports will suffer heavily, tourists and investors will chose other places with weaker currency and the economy will crash...

 

Greed won't get them anyplace if they don't adapt the THB to it's real value, say 40 or 45 THB to 1 US$ that would seem an honest figure...and a sensible move to encourage investment and boost consumers..

[Mattd]

Strange part is that the percentage change GBP to THB has been about 14.5% in the last 2 years whereas the percentage change USD to THB has been about 1% in the same period, however the percentage change GBP - USD has been about 20% in the same period.

 

[Thai Ron]

1 hour ago, Mattd said:

I would agree if it was only related to GBP or USD, however it is not exclusive to these currencies, so what you are saying is that every other currency trading against THB is weak and that is why THB appears strong???

A strong THB does actually benefit certain parties, no one is suggesting that the Bank of Thailand is trying to ruin folks retirement!!!

For many of the reasons you mention above is why the THB should not be strong, especially the debt, Thai's still have access to borrowing money very easily, my ex. wife has just managed to purchase a new Honda HRV at just over 1m THB with 750k of that on finance, she has no job and it was unsecured, this is not untypical of here.

Exactly what happened in 1997 when the crash came to Asia, spending cash that doesn't exist.

The Thai economy is not exactly booming, Military Junta in power, lower income tourists, rice exports way down etc. etc.

No I'm not saying that every currency trading against the baht is weak.

I'm saying that the currencies that most of us TV members receive income in are weak. So, GBP, EUR, AUD, CAD etc.

 

You're confusing household debt with pubic debt. Thailand doesn't have a fraction of the debt levels to be seen in the developed world.

Those supporting your argument are contradicting themselves - on the one hand, "t8769" says Britain's economy - growing at a massive 2%  - is booming but Thailand's economy - which grew at 3% last year - is not booming.

Edited June 13, 2017 by Thai Ron

[KarenBravo]

Bangkok Bank now giving 42.60 Bt to Sterling for TT. Lower for cash.

[t8769]

>On the one hand, "t8769" says Britain's economy - growing at a massive 2%  - is booming but Thailand's economy - which grew at 3% last year - is not booming.

 

I said nothing of the sort!

I mentioned high levels of unsecured debt being unwise and made no mention of Thailand's economic growth.
 

 

[onthesoi]

1 hour ago, t8769 said:

Yes, we have one of the best performing economies in the world, and the second best in the Europe, along with very low unemployment levels and high investment. Our economy is indeed booming.
 

I'm trying to fathom which country you're from as it's certainly not the UK.

[Thai Ron]

Just now, onthesoi said:

I'm trying to fathom which country you're from as it's certainly not the UK.

I think he's either Indian or Chinese.

They're the only major economies that could be called "one of the best performing economies in the world" what with 6 - 7% annual growth.

[t8769]

Yes, obviously from my use of the English language - grammar, vocabulary and sentence structure, along with my knowledge of British economic statistics,l I can only be from a small village outside Beijing.

 

However, I do have the ability to read English, something that might come in useful here, as I said 'best performing in the G7' not 'the world'.

 

A small but somewhat significant detail.

 

 

[Naam]

1 hour ago, observer90210 said:

Greed won't get them anyplace if they don't adapt the THB to it's real value, say 40 or 45 THB to 1 US$ that would seem an honest figure...and a sensible move to encourage investment and boost consumers.

your theory is based on what? reading tea leaves or examining chicken entrails?

[Naam]

2 hours ago, t8769 said:

From what you say Mattd, it looks like they are making all the same mistakes as The US, the UK, Ireland and other silly countries before the crash, out of control lending leading. Another crash in the making I'm afraid.

Good for tourists, when the Bhat crashes, bad for Thais.

extremely bad for most Thais who are used to consume daily heaps of Russian caviar, French cheese and Italian air-dried salami.

[Bastos60]

23 minutes ago, Thai Ron said:

I think he's either Indian or Chinese.

European country, why else state it is second best performing country in Europe.

[jeab1980]

Its all relative. In less than 6 months the comments will be how well other currency is doing compared to Thai baht. How many times have I see the GBP lose ground against the Dollar then its suddenly oh the  Pound is taking a knocking. Only for it to recover within a short space of time. Every currency has its wobbles and falls the vast majority shakes itself down, stops feeling sorry for itself and climbs back up. Long will that trend continue. 

[Naam]

On 6/11/2017 at 0:55 PM, t8769 said:

Oh yes, its just terrible in old Blighty.

The fastest growing economy in the G7

ahemm...

 

[Bastos60]

1 hour ago, observer90210 said:

Your analysis is pertinent. Today, to use easy currency reference let's take the US$. It will give you around 34,. something in THB. 

 

If the THB gets stronger, imagine 1 US$ that get's you only say 25THB - keeping the THB so strong will make Thailand more expensive for tourists, who will turn to other places to spend their  cash, or invest in places nearer to their homes if there is not a substantial difference in cheaper cost of living in Thailand.

A strong bath would only deter the cheap tourists, but it wouldn't really influence their tourism that much. 
In 2008 I got around 48-50 Baht for 1 Euro, Now 2017 I got about 37-38 baht for 1 euro. It didn't turn me away from travelling to Thailand, it just meant I either had to cough up the extra cash to spend or reduce my spending in Thailand. They can still depend on the better infrastructure for tourists compared with neighbouring countries.

 

A generous value for the baht would be around 43Baht/Euro. 

 

1 hour ago, observer90210 said:

 

Thai citizens and those who get income within Thailand would perpahps profit on a short term with a overcharged BHAT - but one can doubt it as even when international market prices drop, the prices don't follow in Thailand, despite the fact that imports would cost less. But Thai exports will suffer heavily, tourists and investors will chose other places with weaker currency and the economy will crash...

90% of the Thai don't benefit from a strong Baht, only those that can afford to travel or import luxury items do and investors can do good business buying property in for instance Europe and the US.

 

1 hour ago, observer90210 said:

 

Greed won't get them anyplace if they don't adapt the THB to it's real value, say 40 or 45 THB to 1 US$ that would seem an honest figure...and a sensible move to encourage investment and boost consumers..

 

The current value will definitely hurt their exports which has been extensively been reported on in newspapers. But it will only hurt consumers on imported goods, which usually are just the luxury items they don't really need.

[onthesoi]

2 hours ago, t8769 said:

Yes, we have one of the best performing economies in the world.....

 

37 minutes ago, t8769 said:

However, I do have the ability to read English, something that might come in useful here, as I said 'best performing in the G7' not 'the world'.

 

A small but somewhat significant detail.

 

On the subject of 'significant details' you did say "in the world".

 

Other significant details might include the pound reaching a 31 year low against the dollar in the last year and a 7 month low just this week, not exactly indicators of a "booming economy", no amount of fudging the unemployment figures and the insurmountable uk debt can hide what is really going on with the UK economy when it comes to currency markets.

[Naam]

28 minutes ago, jeab1980 said:

Its all relative. In less than 6 months the comments will be how well other currency is doing compared to Thai baht. How many times have I see the GBP lose ground against the Dollar then its suddenly oh the  Pound is taking a knocking. Only for it to recover within a short space of time. Every currency has its wobbles and falls the vast majority shakes itself down, stops feeling sorry for itself and climbs back up. Long will that trend continue. 

minus 43% ten-year long term trend is not exactly encouraging.

[Naam]

6 minutes ago, Bastos60 said:

The current value will definitely hurt their exports which has been extensively been reported on in newspapers. But it will only hurt consumers on imported goods, which usually are just the luxury items they don't really need.

since 12 years it is extensively reported in the newspapers and extensively bemoaned in expat forums. it also is extensively boring reading or hearing the same arguments over and over again.

[changside]

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-thb.en.html

 

Baht has been pretty stable against Euro. 

[Naam]

2 minutes ago, changside said:

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-thb.en.html

 

Baht has been pretty stable against Euro. 

don't look at the 1-year but at the 10-year chart:

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-thb.en.html

[Bastos60]

1 minute ago, changside said:

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-thb.en.html

 

Baht has been pretty stable against Euro. 

You call that stable?
 

[Thai Ron]

1 hour ago, t8769 said:

Yes, obviously from my use of the English language - grammar, vocabulary and sentence structure, along with my knowledge of British economic statistics,l I can only be from a small village outside Beijing.

 

However, I do have the ability to read English, something that might come in useful here, as I said 'best performing in the G7' not 'the world'.

 

A small but somewhat significant detail.

 

 

Sorry but the G7 is hardly as shining example of GDP growth, is it? Basically we're the second least dirty shirt in a very smelly laundry basket.

[jeab1980]

1 hour ago, Naam said:

minus 43% ten-year long term trend is not exactly encouraging.

Take out of rhe equation the bankers financial backed world wide balls up.it bounces back

[EricTh]

Baht has been the strongest currency this year among Asian currencies.

[Berkshire]

3 hours ago, observer90210 said:

Greed won't get them anyplace if they don't adapt the THB to it's real value, say 40 or 45 THB to 1 US$ that would seem an honest figure...and a sensible move to encourage investment and boost consumers..

Greed?  Whose greed exactly?  Are you suggesting that some all-powerful Thai person is controlling the value of the baht against all of these international currencies?  And making it stronger to hurt the export and tourism industries?  But aren't there powerful people in the export and tourism industries who would have a problem with that?   

 

Your argument contains no logic and is frankly, a bit looney. 

[EricTh]

Just now, Berkshire said:

Greed?  Whose greed exactly?  Are you suggesting that some all-powerful Thai person is controlling the value of the baht against all of these international currencies?  And making it stronger to hurt the export and tourism industries?  But aren't there powerful people in the export and tourism industries who would have a problem with that?   

 

Your argument contains no logic and is frankly, a bit looney. 

 

 

The real problem is the huge inflow of funds from the European/American countries. 

 

That's what driving the Baht up, no matter how expensive Baht is, these investors still want to invest their money in Thailand.

 

Thai businesses actually prefer to have a lower Baht to attract more customers.

 

Edited June 13, 2017 by EricTh

[observer90210]

29 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

Greed?  Whose greed exactly?  Are you suggesting that some all-powerful Thai person is controlling the value of the baht against all of these international currencies?  And making it stronger to hurt the export and tourism industries?  But aren't there powerful people in the export and tourism industries who would have a problem with that?   

 

Your argument contains no logic and is frankly, a bit looney. 

Greed in the sense that despite a product costing less on import dut to a strong THB, you continue to increase the retail costs. This has nothing to do in controling or not the value of the THB but with the greed policies of retail moghouls. Now if this seems to lack logic or make you feel looney, sorry I cannot be more explicit.  Have a nice evening!