High-speed railway project: China's loan terms rejected

[Justgrazing]

8 minutes ago, ChouDoufu said:

didn't the japanese recently sign a contract to build

the new line from kanchaniburi to myanmar?

If you know the history of that line probably not .. 

[Dave67]

1 minute ago, Justgrazing said:

If you know the history of that line probably not .. 

That's right they tried it once already 

[Ricardo]

17 minutes ago, wakeupplease said:

Knowing this lot they will ban cheap flights and insist you use the railway

 

Not much use for tourists to Chiang Mai, Phuket or Krabi.

 

And an awful long ride, if you want to get to Bangkok or Pattaya, having first to get to Kunming ?

[wakeupplease]

1 minute ago, Ricardo said:

 

Not much use for tourists to Chiang Mai, Phuket or Krabi.

 

And an awful long ride, if you want to get to Bangkok or Pattaya, having first to get to Kunming ?

You and I know that but there are some who issue new laws at the blink of an eye lid that do not think like we do

[ChouDoufu]

22 minutes ago, Ricardo said:

I really don't think China wants to run passenger-trains, to Laem Chabang & Maptaphut Ports, no its clearly for container-freight.

 

 This is important because it gives Chinese exports another route to the sea, and the project was promoted back when the main Chinese ports were struggling to cope with the rapidly-growing volume of exports, so this made good sense.

all the reports are discussing high speed rail from

kunming thru laos to bangkok, eventually linking

kuala lumpur and singapore "to advance trade

and transport."  i haven't seen any claiming there

would actually be freight carried on this line....

 

don't know about the the connecting link to the ports.

does this mean thailand will be building a section of freight

line connecting a high speed passenger only line to a

cargo port?

 

looks like somebody in the head office didn't read the fine print!

 

 

 

Edited August 18, 2017 by ChouDoufu

[ChouDoufu]

19 minutes ago, Justgrazing said:

If you know the history of that line probably not .. 

various news reports from 2015 and 2016 say

japan will build.  was this cancelled?

 

http://archive-3.mizzima.com/mizzima-news/development/item/17273-japan-to-build-east-west-railway-into-myanmar/17273-japan-to-build-east-west-railway-into-myanmar

 

 

[Ricardo]

52 minutes ago, ChouDoufu said:

all the reports are discussing high speed rail from

kunming thru laos to bangkok, eventually linking

kuala lumpur and singapore "to advance trade

and transport."  i haven't seen any claiming there

would actually be freight carried on this line....

 

don't know about the the connecting link to the ports.

does this mean thailand will be building a section of freight

line connecting a high speed passenger only line to a

cargo port?

 

looks like somebody in the head office didn't read the fine print!

With respect, I believe you are mistaken.

 

The following map shows where the new line will run  ...  (see bottom of post !)

 

And there have indeed been many reports, over the past couple of decades, about the lines carrying freight  ...

 

"Now a new game is under way, and China is the key player. "China has been eyeing routes from Yunnan to the coast for a long, long time," says Chalongphob Sussangkarn, who has studied various freight and passenger routes for decades as an advisor to the Thai government. Ports in Singapore and Bangkok, he notes, are closer to China's vast southwest region than China's own eastern ports.

 

Southeast Asian ports also offer access to strategic shipping lines where much of the world's oil is transported, as well as service to many of the world's fastest-developing nations."

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesasia/2014/10/27/thailand-approves-kunming-singapore-rail-line/#19730a19728a

 

or from another reputable source  ...

 

"The Mekong rail project has long been billed as a crucial plank in efforts to build a transport and trade bridge between China and a Southeast Asian region of more than 600m people. The first train route would run from the southern Chinese city of Kunming via Vientiane, the capital of Laos, then on to Bangkok and a port and petrochemical complex in the coastal Thai province of Rayong"

https://www.ft.com/content/76806da6-8190-11e6-8e50-8ec15fb462f4

 

Edited August 18, 2017 by Ricardo
Apologies, I'm having trouble uploading this evening !

[ChouDoufu]

you are correct...from wiki:

 

Bangkok-Nong Khai Railway, a high-speed railway from Bangkok to Nong Khai  on the border with Laos. Costs of this section are to be determined by February 2016 and construction starting in May 2016. When completed, eight-car, 613 passenger CRH2G passenger trains will run on the line at a maximum speed of 250 km/h. At a speed of 180 km/h, it is estimated that passenger trains will run from Bangkok to Nong Khai in 230 minutes. HXD3B and HXD3C electric locomotives will be used to power freight trains travelling the line at 120 km/h

 

of course writing about it and actually doing it are

not the same same.  i'm convinced the line will be

solely for passengers....and the ability to quickly

move troops south to the new southern provinces.

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, gandalf12 said:

The channel Tunnel between the UK and France has been operational for a number of years and is still way off the break even point

February 2003:

" Eurotunnel yesterday announced it had reached a "cash breakeven" point for the first time since the Queen opened the Channel tunnel in 1994"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2003/feb/11/10

That's breakeven from a pretax cashflow perspective. From an after-tax perspective the tunnel is in a "paper loss" position.

 

[Dave67]

53 minutes ago, Ricardo said:

With respect, I believe you are mistaken.

 

The following map shows where the new line will run  ...  (see bottom of post !)

 

And there have indeed been many reports, over the past couple of decades, about the lines carrying freight  ...

 

"Now a new game is under way, and China is the key player. "China has been eyeing routes from Yunnan to the coast for a long, long time," says Chalongphob Sussangkarn, who has studied various freight and passenger routes for decades as an advisor to the Thai government. Ports in Singapore and Bangkok, he notes, are closer to China's vast southwest region than China's own eastern ports.

 

Southeast Asian ports also offer access to strategic shipping lines where much of the world's oil is transported, as well as service to many of the world's fastest-developing nations."

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesasia/2014/10/27/thailand-approves-kunming-singapore-rail-line/#19730a19728a

 

or from another reputable source  ...

 

"The Mekong rail project has long been billed as a crucial plank in efforts to build a transport and trade bridge between China and a Southeast Asian region of more than 600m people. The first train route would run from the southern Chinese city of Kunming via Vientiane, the capital of Laos, then on to Bangkok and a port and petrochemical complex in the coastal Thai province of Rayong"

https://www.ft.com/content/76806da6-8190-11e6-8e50-8ec15fb462f4

 

Ricardo Last paragraph.It's a freight line then it goes to a port Route B

What is route A. Because the route map says High speed for both

[Ricardo]

28 minutes ago, Dave67 said:

Ricardo Last paragraph.It's a freight line then it goes to a port Route B

What is route A. Because the route map says High speed for both

Yes, in a post earlier today I referred to the eventual possibility of a second line, via Den Chai, Chiang Rai & Chiang Khong.  It was in-response to someone who wondered what had happened to the high-speed train to Chiang Mai, I think ?

 

Route A is that second route, which has been proposed long-term, if/when the first-route is nearing-capacity.  I posited that, if Route A were to ever be built, then a higher-speed spur to Chiang Mai might someday be built, if it ever looked financially viable ?

 

And a single-track metre-gauge line from Den Chai to Chiang Rai has also been an election-time favourite with local politicians, over the past 50-years at least, but it ain't happened yet ! 

 

Over the past century or so, the imperial-era proposal for a Kunming-Singapore line has gone through many versions. This is one more. 

 

Most never got completed, some never started, it all depends how much traffic there will be, and whether it will be to the Thai ports or further to Singapore, where it will hit the problem of congestion through the Malacca Straits, which opens yet-another can-of-worms about the Kra Canal or freight-train link (across the narrow isthmus).

 

I do believe that Route B is going to happen, probably in our lifetimes, if they can sort the financing and actually get it built, its long-term economic-effects are interesting to speculate about too, for a retired old-fart like myself !

Edited August 18, 2017 by Ricardo

[boomerangutang]

Everything I hear about the proposed project burns my biscuit.  Better to focus on a moderate speed train for a third the cost, and not involve the Chinese.   Look at what happened in Sri Lanka.  Chinese talked them into building a large shipping port they didn't need on a coast where there was no industry.  Sri Lankans couldn't pay. Chinese then commenced to commandeer surrounding properties by the square mile, as well as taking 80% ownership of the port.  Villagers are livid - at having their homes and farms taken away and given to Chinese nationals.

[baboon]

I like rail and rail travel, even if it is slower than what is becoming the nightmare of modern air travel: Just one hour's flight from A to B, but turn up 2 hours early, go through all the hassle of security and pay a king's ransom for products airside while you are waiting for your delayed aircraft... I hope it works out.

 

However I do worry about shadowy figures in both Bangkok and Beijing figuring out ways to shaft their business 'partners'. We'll just have to see what happens, I suppose. At least bus and air transport remain an option...

[baboon]

4 minutes ago, boomerangutang said:

Everything I hear about the proposed project burns my biscuit.  Better to focus on a moderate speed train for a third the cost, and not involve the Chinese.   Look at what happened in Sri Lanka.  Chinese talked them into building a large shipping port they didn't need on a coast where there was no industry.  Sri Lankans couldn't pay. Chinese then commenced to commandeer surrounding properties by the square mile, as well as taking 80% ownership of the port.  Villagers are livid - at having their homes and farms taken away and given to Chinese nationals.

But then who is to blame? The Chinese or the Sri Lankan government who sold their own natives down the river? The Sri Lankan government could have always said 'No'...

[Dave67]

13 minutes ago, boomerangutang said:

Everything I hear about the proposed project burns my biscuit.  Better to focus on a moderate speed train for a third the cost, and not involve the Chinese.   Look at what happened in Sri Lanka.  Chinese talked them into building a large shipping port they didn't need on a coast where there was no industry.  Sri Lankans couldn't pay. Chinese then commenced to commandeer surrounding properties by the square mile, as well as taking 80% ownership of the port.  Villagers are livid - at having their homes and farms taken away and given to Chinese nationals.

 High speed rail is a prestige thing China only built them because Taiwan did one first. 

[ozmeldo]

I just don't see how this train will be cheaper than flying. No matter what speed, it will never be faster than flying. Then there are two border queues.

 

Airlines add zero cost to infrastructure.

 

What a stupid idea

[ozmeldo]

6 hours ago, Ricardo said:

Yes, it's an operational-success, but was a disaster for the original shareholders.

 

I really don't think China wants to run passenger-trains, to Laem Chabang & Maptaphut Ports, no its clearly for container-freight.

 

 This is important because it gives Chinese exports another route to the sea, and the project was promoted back when the main Chinese ports were struggling to cope with the rapidly-growing volume of exports, so this made good sense.

Ridiculous. China doesn't need to run goods down thru two countries to get to another port. High speed rail is for passengers not cargo.Chinese ports are not struggling and this certainly is not an answer.

 

Chinese hegemony

 

Chinese troops? 

[Ricardo]

5 hours ago, ozmeldo said:

Ridiculous. China doesn't need to run goods down thru two countries to get to another port. High speed rail is for passengers not cargo.Chinese ports are not struggling and this certainly is not an answer.

 

Chinese hegemony

 

Chinese troops? 

"China doesn't need to run goods down thru two countries to get to another port"

 

But that's not what the FT or Forbes say, in my post #68, they say the opposite.  They're quite clear that access to Thai (or other) ports is the objective, and that's not for the benefit of tourists !  I trust their judgement & reporting on economic matters.  So "Trade and transport" means freight, not passenger-only.

 

And I think there's still some confusion about what "high speed" actually means here in Thailand, in China it's 250-350kph and for passengers-only, but in Thailand it suddenly means 180-250kph, ie medium-speed, and with both passenger-trains and freight (at 120kph ?) running on the same tracks.

 

And other more-knowledgeable posters have already said, it's not technically adviseable to run freight at 120kph on the same tracks as true high-speed at  250-350kph, different standards of construction become necessary.

 

Now I can quite understand why Thai politicians need to promote the line as being for passengers, they have voters to consider who might not like the 30-year-payback or cultural-implications of the route, and the new services certainly would be higher-speed than the dear old SRT, just not what China or the rest of us mean by 'high-speed'.  Politicians have been known to slant things in their own interests !

 

Next I would question the economic-case, if this route were to be high-speed passenger-only, just how many Chinese tourists there actually are, who want to travel by train from Kunming to Bangkok or Laem Chabang and Maptaphut ?  I really don't think there would be many Thai tourists, going in the opposite direction, most here are too poor & the rich ones would always fly !

 

Your suggestion that this is actually for military purposes, well in that case China would IMO want to build it at any cost, so that this dispute about interest rates (which this thread is about) would not be a problem, military or political would over-ride commercial reasons.  Then again, perhaps you're right about China's long-term plans for South-East Asia, and this project serves both needs ?

 

A fear of that might explain why Thai governments have split their section of the project into 3-4 parts, and gone slow on making decisions, it might not just be incompetence.

[Ricardo]

9 hours ago, baboon said:

I like rail and rail travel, even if it is slower than what is becoming the nightmare of modern air travel: Just one hour's flight from A to B, but turn up 2 hours early, go through all the hassle of security and pay a king's ransom for products airside while you are waiting for your delayed aircraft... I hope it works out.

 

However I do worry about shadowy figures in both Bangkok and Beijing figuring out ways to shaft their business 'partners'. We'll just have to see what happens, I suppose. At least bus and air transport remain an option...

 

The check-in time becomes less of a problem for 3-4 hour flights IME, and they're increasing from many Chinese points-of-origin to several Thai destinations, that's how the majority of the current 10-million Chinese tourists get here.

 

I currently see no reason why that growth won't continue, this is the '70s with an expolsion of charter-flights from Northern-Europe to Spain/Greece/Canaries, all over again but in Asia.

 

Your misgivings about what's probably going on in-the-shadows, I would entirely agree, the squabble over the benefits of development & land-ownership along the route, or at the Bangkok-end, is merely one slightly-more-visible aspect of that.  Remember the plans, a few years ago, for a Chinese trading-city down in Bangkok  ...  it all adds-up now ?

[boomerangutang]

8 hours ago, baboon said:

But then who is to blame? The Chinese or the Sri Lankan government who sold their own natives down the river? The Sri Lankan government could have always said 'No'...

                             It's like dealing with people who are addicted to gambling.  Wise people like you and I know there are problems.  The Sri Lankans (addicted gamblers) know there were problems before, during and after agreeing to the Chinese deals.  The Chinese (casino owners) knew the Sri Lankans wouldn't be able to pay back the loans.  But that was fine for the Chinese.  They win on both sides of the issue. 

 

                                It's the same dynamic now for Thailand, except Thailand now has non-elected military men running the show.  They care about self-enrichment and maintaining power.  They spend taxpayer money foolishly on unneeded arms and over-the-top infrastructure, including the unneeded speedo trains.  Those expensive trains will be mostly empty, if they ever get running.   Thailand won't be able to pay back (roughly 50 years of payments, at billions of baht/yr) ....and China will likely gain possession of assets and property that once was Thai.

 

True story:   In my youth, I was a pot dealer.   One of my steady customers got angry at me, for checking in with him weekly, to see if he wanted to buy more pot.  His reason:  it was difficult for him to say no, so he was telling me, 'don't tempt me and my addiction to pot.'   I complied. 

It's the same with China continually hitting up on Thai officials (and other small countries'), always proposing big ticket expenditures.   The little countries' officials can't say no.  They're addicted to wanting to spend spend spend.   

 

 

[Dave67]

44 minutes ago, boomerangutang said:

                             It's like dealing with people who are addicted to gambling.  Wise people like you and I know there are problems.  The Sri Lankans (addicted gamblers) know there were problems before, during and after agreeing to the Chinese deals.  The Chinese (casino owners) knew the Sri Lankans wouldn't be able to pay back the loans.  But that was fine for the Chinese.  They win on both sides of the issue. 

 

                                It's the same dynamic now for Thailand, except Thailand now has non-elected military men running the show.  They care about self-enrichment and maintaining power.  They spend taxpayer money foolishly on unneeded arms and over-the-top infrastructure, including the unneeded speedo trains.  Those expensive trains will be mostly empty, if they ever get running.   Thailand won't be able to pay back (roughly 50 years of payments, at billions of baht/yr) ....and China will likely gain possession of assets and property that once was Thai.

 

True story:   In my youth, I was a pot dealer.   One of my steady customers got angry at me, for checking in with him weekly, to see if he wanted to buy more pot.  His reason:  it was difficult for him to say no, so he was telling me, 'don't tempt me and my addiction to pot.'   I complied. 

It's the same with China continually hitting up on Thai officials (and other small countries'), always proposing big ticket expenditures.   The little countries' officials can't say no.  They're addicted to wanting to spend spend spend.   

 

 

I probably would have been one you best customers when I was younger too

[Dave67]

1 hour ago, Ricardo said:

"China doesn't need to run goods down thru two countries to get to another port"

 

But that's not what the FT or Forbes say, in my post #68, they say the opposite.  They're quite clear that access to Thai (or other) ports is the objective, and that's not for the benefit of tourists !  I trust their judgement & reporting on economic matters.  So "Trade and transport" means freight, not passenger-only.

 

And I think there's still some confusion about what "high speed" actually means here in Thailand, in China it's 250-350kph and for passengers-only, but in Thailand it suddenly means 180-250kph, ie medium-speed, and with both passenger-trains and freight (at 120kph ?) running on the same tracks.

 

And other more-knowledgeable posters have already said, it's not technically adviseable to run freight at 120kph on the same tracks as true high-speed at  250-350kph, different standards of construction become necessary.

 

Now I can quite understand why Thai politicians need to promote the line as being for passengers, they have voters to consider who might not like the 30-year-payback or cultural-implications of the route, and the new services certainly would be higher-speed than the dear old SRT, just not what China or the rest of us mean by 'high-speed'.  Politicians have been known to slant things in their own interests !

 

Next I would question the economic-case, if this route were to be high-speed passenger-only, just how many Chinese tourists there actually are, who want to travel by train from Kunming to Bangkok or Laem Chabang and Maptaphut ?  I really don't think there would be many Thai tourists, going in the opposite direction, most here are too poor & the rich ones would always fly !

 

Your suggestion that this is actually for military purposes, well in that case China would IMO want to build it at any cost, so that this dispute about interest rates (which this thread is about) would not be a problem, military or political would over-ride commercial reasons.  Then again, perhaps you're right about China's long-term plans for South-East Asia, and this project serves both needs ?

 

A fear of that might explain why Thai governments have split their section of the project into 3-4 parts, and gone slow on making decisions, it might not just be incompetence.

"And I think there's still some confusion about what "high speed" actually means here in Thailand, in China it's 250-350kph and for passengers-only, but in Thailand, it suddenly means 180-250kph, ie medium-speed, and with both passenger-trains and freight (at 120kph ?) running on the same tracks."

 

Malaysian have a narrow gauge designed for Passenger and Freight with 180kph, max passenger train will probably keep at 160/170, Freight will be well below that basically they can move as fast as they can go because they won't reach 180kph, probably 100/120.. 

 

Any freight train coming to Thailand from China will be loaded to full with plenty of wagons as it a long journey a journey. The speed for dual use of standard gauge that I am sure of is 200kph and is a proven system in the UK. so freight won't go that fast. If is the track is designed properly and wheel profiles are similar then the rail wear will be minimal. Bearing in mind we are talking about China and Thailand, they are not the greatest puveyors of quality or health and safety in the World..

 

Google "High speed" and you'll see lots railways that are high speed, projects that are called high speed but not been started construction and railways that are not high speed at all. It's not just Thailand who uses the term loosely for national prowess

[ChouDoufu]

so the question is:  who will ride this train in thailand?

 

the cost of tickets will be equal to or greater than air travel.

the lines and security checkpoints will be about the same.

 

your everyday rice farmer, or locals returning to korat?

will they pay 600-800 baht for the super train, or will

they catch a bus from mochit for 189 baht?

 

your hi-so folks tooling around bangkok in their mercedeses?

they can afford it, but won't they just drive their fancy pants cars

anyway to show off to the koratians?

[ChouDoufu]

one other aspect of high speed rail is the maintenenance.

 

china has a veritable army of workers that climb the poles

and check the high tension wires, and walk the entire track

each and every day.....at least once. 

will the same standards be maintained here?

 

 

[Ricardo]

On 14/08/2017 at 4:50 AM, webfact said:

“China wants to put tough conditions on the loan contract, demanding that the Chinese government could seize other assets of the Thai government if the Thai government defaults on debt repayments,” said Arkhom. Thailand proposes to borrow about 25 per cent of the total project cost. 

 

China’s negotiators argued that it would apply the same conditions agreed to by the Lao government for financing a high-speed rail linking that nation to southern China. The Chinese government will be able to seize five mine assets if Vientiane fails to repay the debt.

"could seize other assets of the Thai government if  ..."

 

Does anybody know exactly which Thai-government assets the Chinese-government has its eyes on, if the Thai government were to default on the loan(s), which I currently understand (but I may be wrong) are proposed to be from Chinese-banks (aot the Chinese government itself), what might they be after ?

 

Are they talking oil/gas-rights, land-rights along the route, land for an isthmus-canal, or what ?

[ExpatOilWorker]

Once the railway network is complete, Thailand can kiss its auto industry goodbye. 

 

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/07/18/china-aims-to-take-over-car-industry-one-part-at-time.html

[chainarong]

Give it a miss while your'e still in front........................

[Justgrazing]

m.todayonline.com/commentary/thai-chinese-railway-raw-deal 

 

Above is a link to another story on this .. 

[Dave67]

7 hours ago, ChouDoufu said:

one other aspect of high speed rail is the maintenenance.

 

china has a veritable army of workers that climb the poles

and check the high tension wires, and walk the entire track

each and every day.....at least once. 

will the same standards be maintained here?

 

 

Pairoling every 24 hours is standard practice for high speed and Metros

[Dave67]

7 hours ago, ChouDoufu said:

one other aspect of high speed rail is the maintenenance.

 

china has a veritable army of workers that climb the poles

and check the high tension wires, and walk the entire track

each and every day.....at least once. 

will the same standards be maintained here?

 

 

Who told you they climb the poles? OCS overhead catenary system is inspected visually from the ground

Edited August 19, 2017 by Dave67