Yingluck's flight provides Thai junta welcome way out

[rooster59]

Yingluck's flight provides Thai junta welcome way out

By Amy Sawitta Lefevre and Panu Wongcha-um

 

Ousted former Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra greets supporters as she arrives at the Supreme Court in Bangkok, Thailand, August 1, 2017. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

 

BANGKOK/KHON KAEN (Reuters) - Thailand's generals could hardly have planned it better.

 

The flight of ousted prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra before a court verdict for negligence leaves the populist movement that has dominated Thai politics for a generation leaderless and in despair.

 

It also means Yingluck doesn't become a martyr, as she could have done if she had been jailed over the costly rice subsidy scheme, or get let off lightly, which could have raised awkward questions over why the military overthrew her in 2014.

 

What it doesn't do is eliminate the Shinawatras' power base: the largely poor and provincial Thais who have had the numbers to deliver them victory in every election since 2001 despite the best efforts of pro-army and deeply royalist conservatives.

 

Yingluck fled just before a court verdict on her criminal negligence trial over a multi-billion dollar scheme to help poor farmers, sources within her Puea Thai Party said.

 

They said she had gone to Dubai to join her brother Thaksin Shinawatra, the self-made billionaire and family patriarch who was overthrown as prime minister in 2006 and fled to escape a corruption conviction he says was politically motivated.

 

Neither Thaksin or Yingluck could be reached for comment.

 

"The party has no true leader right now. Without Yingluck the party is headless," said one senior Puea Thai Party member, who declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media. "It doesn't have a figurehead that the people love."

 

FIGUREHEAD

 

Yingluck, 50, had been banned from politics for five years by the junta in 2015, but could have rallied support for her party at elections the army has promised for next year.

 

That would have been harder if she had been sentenced over the estimated $8 billion losses on the rice scheme, but jail would have made her a rallying point with glamorous star power at home and abroad.

 

Her departure meant she would not become Thailand's version of neighbouring Myanmar's once long-detained Aung San Suu Kyi.

 

"This will embolden the military government because they did not have to put her in jail," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University.

 

Government spokesman Weerachon Sukhontapatipak declined to comment on the case or the implications of Yingluck's absence.

 

There was no evidence the junta had been aware Yingluck might have intended to skip bail, but suspicions circulated among her supporters that her departure was very convenient for the military government.

 

"She was closely monitored by authorities. It isn't possible that she left the country without help," said Thanawut Wichaidit, of the red-shirt United Front For Democracy Against Dictatorship political movement that supports the Shinawatras, without offering any proof.

 

The crowds of supporters bearing roses and bunches of rice at Yingluck's previous court appearances had shown her enduring support despite crackdowns on dissent since the coup.

 

In the red-shirt heartlands of Thailand's rural northeast, the mood was sombre. Yingluck supporters sympathised with her for fleeing, but didn't know who could replace her.

 

Yingluck took over despite being a political novice after Thaksin fled into exile and succeeded through personal charm and charisma - as well as his distant backing. There are no obvious candidates now.

 

"I don't have the skill," Yingluck's older sister, Monthathip Kovitcharoenkul, 58, a businesswoman who had been talked about as a potential candidate, told reporters.

 

POWER BASE

 

The constituency the Shinawatras represented has not disappeared, however. That potentially complicates the military's plans for an election even with a new constitution that entrenches the power of the generals for years to come.

 

Electoral numbers show the poorer, aspiring parts of Thai society have more votes than backers of the entrenched elite and its yellow shirt followers.

 

The majority Shinawatra-supporting northeastern and northern regions alone account for more than 45 percent of Thailand's population, according to the most recent official data. They accounted for less than 12 percent of the economy.

 

"If they field a dog as a candidate in the northeast it would win a seat in the election," said Wassawan Ken-kla, 40, a local leader in northeastern Udon Thani.

 

After Yingluck's flight, poor, rural voters who had benefited from Shinawatra policies may become even more sympathetic, said Paul Chambers, a lecturer at Naresuan University in the northern Thailand.

 

"Other Puea Thai leaders will soon emerge," he said.

 

Even without the party, the red shirt movement said it would carry on. It played a pivotal role in backing both the Puea Thai Party and Thaksin's former party, Thai Rak Thai, which was dissolved in 2007.

 

"We will vote for any party that supports us and is on the side of democracy," Thanawut, the red shirt activist, said.

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-08-27

 

 

 

[darksidedog]

A very convenient outcome. Couldn't have worked out much better for everyone, if they had all sat down and planned it together.

[phuketrichard]

better to live like  a princess in Dubai, than Jail in Thailand

[YetAnother]

30 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

This will embolden the military government because they did not have to put her in jail,"

just what we needed

[stubuzz]

Will the verdict be read in her absence?

[steven100]

31 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

It also means Yingluck doesn't become a martyr, as she could have done if she had been jailed over the costly rice subsidy scheme

enough said ....  the opposite of a martyr ... is tyrant  ... selfish ... ?  or similar  ?

[gk10002000]

Chicken shit cowards.  If the country can't or won't stand behind its court system, than the country has not made any progress, coup or no coup.  Just disgusting and frustrating to watch since I have been to Thailand a dozen times, love so much of the country, met so many decent people there.  But the stuff that has happened since the coup in 2006 is just nonsense.

[meechai]

Quote

"Yingluck's flight provides Thai junta welcome way out"

If she is ever heard from again...If not then not so much a way out as a way for others to

step in

 

Stand up Thai's take your country back

 

Others will help .... The world would not stand by & watch you  destroyed by any military junta

Look around & see what has happened elsewhere in similar situations

[Jip99]

3 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

Chicken shit cowards.  If the country can't or won't stand behind its court system, than the country has not made any progress, coup or no coup.  Just disgusting and frustrating to watch since I have been to Thailand a dozen times, love so much of the country, met so many decent people there.  But the stuff that has happened since the coup in 2006 is just nonsense.

 

 

Take a look at pre-2006 for a real eye opener.

[gk10002000]

1 minute ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

Take a look at pre-2006 for a real eye opener.

I have.  I am very much aware of all the coups, riots, protests, etc.  Still amazing in this supposed electronic and information age.  Closing in on 70 million people in that country, and no focus or organization or government by the people at all.

[sirmud63]

7 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

I have.  I am very much aware of all the coups, riots, protests, etc.  Still amazing in this supposed electronic and information age.  Closing in on 70 million people in that country, and no focus or organization or government by the people at all.

yes there is,  its called coruption ,and it runs so deep that if you were to eliminate it overnight ,the next day the economy would collapse.   

[harada]

14 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

Take a look at pre-2006 for a real eye opener.

Yes, not much has changed over the past 85years or so, they just don't seem to be able to learn from the past, and the good, hard working Thais just keep suffering, sad.

[ovi1kanobi]

53 minutes ago, stubuzz said:

Will the verdict be read in her absence?

Yes it will, on sept 27th

[ikke]

30 minutes ago, sirmud63 said:

yes there is,  its called coruption ,and it runs so deep that if you were to eliminate it overnight ,the next day the economy would collapse.   

Thats exactly what happened with/after the coup, the economy collapsed and still not a sign of recovering

[baboon]

1 hour ago, phuketrichard said:

better to live like  a princess in Dubai, than Jail in Thailand

Don't you mean it is better to live like a princess in just about any country in the world you choose to, than jail in Thailand? 

[Lupatria]

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

"She was closely monitored by authorities. It isn't possible that she left the country without help," said Thanawut Wichaidit

Kudos to the late Houdini! He knew how to vanish from the scene in front of an audience and keep the trick as a secret...

[phycokiller]

2 hours ago, darksidedog said:

A very convenient outcome. Couldn't have worked out much better for everyone, if they had all sat down and planned it together.

yes for sure, jailing her would have been a disaster for all parties, Im sure the military organized this and its one of the cleverer things they have done, as far a delaying the inevitable in any case

[steven100]

You couldn't make this stuff up if you tried   ....     it is Thailand ... it is what it is

[baboon]

2 minutes ago, phycokiller said:

yes for sure, jailing her would have been a disaster for all parties, Im sure the military organized this and its one of the cleverer things they have done, as far a delaying the inevitable in any case

But now they have to pretend they knew nothing about it and express outrage to a scornful public. They are a laughingstock and they must know it. Even the inevitable 'computer crimes' arrests won't put this latest one to bed, I don't think - Fear is turning into contempt...

[baboon]

2 minutes ago, steven100 said:

You couldn't make this stuff up if you tried   ....     it is Thailand ... it is what it is

I'm sure you could. You do a pretty good job in that department...

[phycokiller]

14 minutes ago, baboon said:

But now they have to pretend they knew nothing about it and express outrage to a scornful public. They are a laughingstock and they must know it. Even the inevitable 'computer crimes' arrests won't put this latest one to bed, I don't think - Fear is turning into contempt...

I doubt it, just look at America. the public will believe what they are told. and Yingluck will be pushing the same story as the military so theres no reason for anyone to doubt unless they think about, which is not a likely thing in Thailand. And as you say, if anyone does push another story, they can just jail them. but yes, eventually the contempt will come out

Edited August 27, 2017 by phycokiller

[Remus1830]

You do not understand anything about Thailand at all of course the people are organised a majority backed the shinawat team but the powerful rich minority and the army did not like it and kicked them out with guns and tanks not easy to fight back.The rich elitist minority believe they have more voting rights than the poor so if cannot control by voted control by force.

[Bill Miller]

2 hours ago, stubuzz said:

Will the verdict be read in her absence?

Yes, on 27 September according to reports.

 

[tigermoth]

The rural people responsible for only 12% or less of the economy, what a load of B...S.... The Junta is an illegal government so how can the existing constitution be valid??? A new elected government can simply sit down and redraw the constituion so it is fair to all Thais. If the military tried to have another coup because of it the western world would intervene.

[Siripon]

20 minutes ago, tigermoth said:

The rural people responsible for only 12% or less of the economy, what a load of B...S.... The Junta is an illegal government so how can the existing constitution be valid??? A new elected government can simply sit down and redraw the constituion so it is fair to all Thais. If the military tried to have another coup because of it the western world would intervene.

A new government cannot sit down and write a new constitution just like that. Any changes to the current constitution requires at least a two thirds majority in both Houses. Out of 700 members, 250 are appointed senators, appointed by the junta, they will undoubtedly oppose any changes and they are staying for 5 years- beyond the tenure of the next government so you can see any changes will be almost impossible.

Mr Wissanu and Meechai are experts at writing constitutions for coup makers, they have plenty of experience.

The Western world will intervene!! A hilarious remark.

Edited August 27, 2017 by Siripon

[SupermarineS6B]

Phew !  That was a close one, i bet they begged her to leave......  Ah well, here we go, no Captain at the helm on a ship without a rudder......... marvelous........

[yellowboat]

5 hours ago, rooster59 said:

After Yingluck's flight, poor, rural voters who had benefited from Shinawatra policies may become even more sympathetic, said Paul Chambers, a lecturer at Naresuan University in the northern Thailand.

Doubt these Thais fault her for fleeing, and they probably expected this outcome.  The junta still has not changed these people's minds, so a true election would start the cycle all over again. 

 

Yingluck did what most smart, ambitious, hard working Thais should do; leave Thailand. 

[Tchooptip]

In the red-shirt heartlands of Thailand's rural northeast, the mood was sombre.  Even if Yingluck supporters sympathised with her for fleeing, they do not know who could still give them one thousand Baht to buy their vote in the future elections????????   

[SupermarineS6B]

21 minutes ago, Siripon said:

A new government cannot sit down and write a new constitution just like that. Any changes to the current constitution requires at least a two thirds majority in both Houses. Out of 700 members, 250 are appointed senators, appointed by the junta, they will undoubtedly oppose any changes and they are staying for 5 years- beyond the tenure of the next government so you can see any changes will be almost impossible.

Mr Wissanu and Meechai are experts at writing constitutions for coup makers, they have plenty of experience.

The Western world will intervene!! A hilarious remark.

It's intervened many times, as in the case of Churchill wanting Siam punished for it's complicity with the japanese and the U.S. stepping in and stopping it....... I somehow think Siam would of been a better place with a good kicking just to buck em up a touch........Lots of nice airports and bases built by the U.S. as well........

[Siripon]

1 minute ago, SupermarineS6B said:

It's intervened many times, as in the case of Churchill wanting Siam punished for it's complicity with the japanese and the U.S. stepping in and stopping it....... I somehow think Siam would of been a better place with a good kicking just to buck em up a touch........Lots of nice airports and bases built by the U.S. as well........

WW2 and the Vietnam War are over.