North Korea launch increases focus on risky U.S. shootdown option

[webfact]

North Korea launch increases focus on risky U.S. shootdown option

By Matt Spetalnick and David Brunnstrom

 

A missile is launched during a long and medium-range ballistic rocket launch drill in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang on August 30, 2017. KCNA/via REUTERS

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea's firing of a ballistic missile over Japan could increase pressure on Washington to consider shooting down future test launches, although there is no guarantee of success and U.S. officials are wary of a dangerous escalation with Pyongyang.

 

More attention is likely to focus on the prospects for intercepting a missile in flight after North Korea on Tuesday conducted one of its boldest missile tests in years, one government official said.

 

Such a decision would not be taken lightly given tensions over North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.

 

And while President Donald Trump has repeatedly vowed that "all options are on the table", there has been no sign of any quick policy shift in Washington toward direct U.S. military action.

 

But Pyongyang's launch of an intermediate-range Hwasong-12 missile over Japan's northern Hokkaido island underscored how Trump's tough rhetoric, pursuit of sanctions and occasional shows of military force around the Korean peninsula have done little to deter North Korea's leader.

 

"Kim Jong Un has chosen to thumb his nose at the Americans and Japanese by conducting this test," said David Shear, former U.S. assistant secretary of defense for East Asia.

 

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has already pledged that the military would shoot down any missile it deemed a danger to U.S. or allied territory.

 

What is unclear is whether Washington would be prepared to use its multi-layered missile defense systems to intercept a missile like the one that overflew Japan but never directly threatened its territory.

 

Doing so would essentially be a U.S. show of force rather than an act of self-defense.

 

"I would think that in government deliberations that would likely be one of the options out on the table," Shear said.

 

Some analysts say there is a danger that North Korea would see it as an act of war and retaliate militarily with potentially devastating consequences for South Korea and Japan.

 

China, North Korea’s neighbor and main trading partner, would also likely oppose such a direct U.S. military response.

 

MINIMIZING DAMAGE

 

Experts say there is no guarantee that U.S. missile defense systems, including Aegis ballistic missile defense ships in the region and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems based in Guam and South Korea, would hit their target, despite recent successful tests.

 

A failed attempt would be an embarrassment to the United States and could embolden North Korea, which this year has already conducted two tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile believed capable of hitting the U.S. mainland.

 

The United States has spent $40 billion over 18 years on research and development into missile defense systems but they have never been put into operation under wartime conditions.

 

Mattis this month expressed confidence the U.S. military could intercept a missile fired by North Korea if it was headed to Guam, after North Korea said it was developing a plan to launch four intermediate range missiles to land near the U.S. territory.

 

If North Korea fired at the United States, the situation could quickly escalate to war, Mattis said.

 

GROWING THREAT

 

Not everyone is convinced the U.S. military can defend against North Korea's growing missile capability.

 

  Some experts caution that U.S. missile defenses are now geared to shooting down one, or perhaps a small number, of incoming missiles. If North Korea's technology and production keep advancing, U.S. defenses could be overwhelmed.

 

"If a shootdown fails, it would be embarrassing, though not terribly surprising," said Michael Elleman, a missile expert at the 38 North think tank in Washington.

 

"Missile defense does not provide a shield that protects against missiles. Rather, it is like air defense; it is designed to minimize the damage an adversary can inflict," he said.

 

One U.S. official said the military would be especially cautious about shooting down a North Korean missile that did not pose a direct threat because of the risk of civilian casualties if it were intercepted over Japan or South Korea, as well as difficulty in determining how Pyongyang might retaliate. The official spoke on condition of anonymity.

 

U.S. military and intelligence officials warn North Korea could unleash a devastating barrage of missiles and artillery on Seoul and U.S. bases in South Korea in response to any military attack.

 

Targeting of a North Korean missile in flight that did not endanger the United States or its allies could also raise legal questions. U.N. Security Council resolutions that ban Pyongyang’s ballistic missile programs do not explicitly authorize such actions.

 

Japan also faces questions over the legality of shooting down missiles in its airspace but not aimed at Japan.

Under legislation passed in 2015, Tokyo can exercise a limited right of collective self-defense, or militarily aiding an ally under attack, if it judges the threat to Japan as "existential".

 

(Reporting By Matt Spetalnick and David Brunnstrom Additional reporting by Idrees Ali and Mike Stone in WASHINGTON, Linda Sieg and Tim Kelly in TOKYO; Editing by Warren Strobel and Lincoln Feast)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-08-30

[nobodysfriend]

2 never really grown up boys are playing with their toys ... they fit good in a world that is becoming more and more barbaric and primitive every day ...

All mankind will only have this planet , people will never conquer and live on another planet ... if our once beautiful planet is completely destroyed , there will be no place left for mankind .

Homo sapiens ? = an error of evolution ?

[mrwebb8825]

On 8/31/2017 at 8:00 AM, nobodysfriend said:

2 never really grown up boys are playing with their toys ... they fit good in a world that is becoming more and more barbaric and primitive every day ...

All mankind will only have this planet , people will never conquer and live on another planet ... if our once beautiful planet is completely destroyed , there will be no place left for mankind .

Homo sapiens ? = an error of evolution ?

Funny, I only see reports of 1 person doing things with "toys". The only error in evolution would be PC pantywaists in charge of most of the countries while the little fat man continues to be stupid. Hopefully President Trump will just order his removal and get it over with so the rest of the world can move on.

[ilostmypassword]

7 minutes ago, mrwebb8825 said:

Funny, I only see reports of 1 person doing things with "toys". The only error in evolution would be PC pantywaists in charge of most of the countries while the little fat man continues to be stupid. Hopefully President Trump will just order his removal and get it over with so the rest of the world can move on.

Yes, I'm sure the North Koreans are all atremble. After all, look at what happened to Assad after Trump ordered the attack on Syria.

[mrwebb8825]

17 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Yes, I'm sure the North Koreans are all atremble. After all, look at what happened to Assad after Trump ordered the attack on Syria.

He didn't order an attack ON Syria, he ordered an attack IN Syria ON a chemical weapons storage facility. 

I've always been amused at the way you rewrite the truth to fit your thinking.

Edited September 1, 2017 by mrwebb8825

[ilostmypassword]

I remember once when Ronald Reagan was diagnosed with cancer. He said he didn't have cancer but something inside of him did. Same kind of thinking. Trump didn't make an attack on Syria; he attacked a something inside of Syria.

[Speedo1968]

"What is unclear is whether Washington would be prepared to use its multi-layered missile defense systems to intercept a missile like the one that overflew Japan but never directly threatened its territory".

 

Not directly but, what if the missile ran out of fuel or they ( North Koreans ) had got the trajectory slightly wrong ?

[craigt3365]

2 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Yes, I'm sure the North Koreans are all atremble. After all, look at what happened to Assad after Trump ordered the attack on Syria.

Yes, look what happened. How many warplanes did he lose? LOL

[ilostmypassword]

4 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

Yes, look what happened. How many warplanes did he lose? LOL

What's worse, look at all the territory he's lost since then........................................................................keep looking.

[craigt3365]

1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said:

What's worse, look at all the territory he's lost since then........................................................................keep looking.

Easy to keep or get new territory when you bomb everybody within sight.

[ilostmypassword]

3 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

Easy to keep or get new territory when you bomb everybody within sight.

If it was so easy, then Assad would have won long ago.  But you've got the typical American mentality about the efficaciousness of bombing.

[craigt3365]

3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

If it was so easy, then Assad would have won long ago.  But you've got the typical American mentality about the efficaciousness of bombing.

You never give up, do you. Be polite in your replies. Attacking somebody due to their nationality is against forum rules.

[ilostmypassword]

1 hour ago, craigt3365 said:

You never give up, do you. Be polite in your replies. Attacking somebody due to their nationality is against forum rules.

I apologize. Not only was it against forum rules, but it was stupid as well.

[craigt3365]

1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said:

I apologize. Not only was it against forum rules, but it was stupid as well.

Apology accepted!  I appreciate a healthy, and respectful, debate. I do look at both sides of the issue. We are all biased.

 

Have a good day!