Asean must balance between US and North Korea: academics

[webfact]

Asean must balance between US and North Korea: academics

By Wasamon Audjarint 
The Nation

 

This photo taken on September 6, 2017 shows participants of a mass celebration in Pyongyang for scientists involved in carrying out North Korea's largest nuclear blast to date. // AFP PHOTO

 

BANGKOK: -- Although Asean is in an “awkward” situation between the US and North Korea in dealing with the latter’s weapon development, it is still wise for Thailand to utilise Asean mechanisms to express its stance regarding the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, a panel heard yesterday.

Asean members are diplomatically connected to North Korea and have faced increasing US “requests” to implement more sanctions against the country and to join the United Nation Security Council in expressing concern.

 

While Asean is also connected with North Korea through the Asean Regional Forum dialogue, the recent meeting in the Philippines had not proven to be fruitful, said veteran columnist Kiatchai Pongpanich at a seminar at Thammasat University.

 

“Asean is indeed in a tight spot,” Kiatchai said. “It should be remembered that North Korea tension is also linked with China, on whom North Korea is dependent.”

 

China, a regional partner and a rival with Asean regarding South China Sea conflicts, does not want North Korea to break down, which would result in many of its 25 million people fleeing across the border to China.

 

Asean will take time to make a move, including regarding negotiations. However, Asean’s earlier agreements had been effective to help Thailand position itself while avoiding excessive pressure, Kiatchai said.

 

Those agreements include the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality signed in 1971 and the Treaty on Southeast Asia Nuclear WeaponFree Zone signed in 1995. Both had solidified Asean’s stance on nuclear nonproliferation while maintaining neutrality on other issues, he said.

 

Asean would also have to balance itself carefully as North Korea succeeds in testing and developing its intercontinental ballistic missiles and what appears to be a hydrogen bomb.

 

The ongoing crisis, Kiatchai said, was rooted in the unsuccessful international measures taken against North Korea, proving that sanctions and the sixparty talks had not worked.

 

Damrong Thandee, director to Ramkhamhaeng University’s Centre for Korean Studies, said North Korea could also seek funding from Russia and other channels, sustaining it despite UN sanctions.

 

The North Korea issue was a balancing game between China and the US, he said. While the US tended to ensure that North Korea would have a limited role in the international arena given its nuclear weapon proliferation, China made sure that no country initiated a preemptive strike against North Korea, Damrong said.

 

“The likely scene could be that these provocations will be done along with more talks,” he said. “Both the US President Donald Trump and North Korean Kim Jongun are very unpredictable. 

 

“The US might adopt containment as was used with Iran, and that could as well become a modern example for other countries,” he added.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30326098

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-09-08

[Samui Bodoh]

ASEAN was originally formed as a way of staying out of the Cold War between the US and the old USSR, and it was not an unreasonable position to take at the time. There were two 'reasonable' actors in dispute (both far away) and sometimes the best policy is to simply to step aside and try to keep the dispute out of their area.

 

The current situation between the US and North Korea does not meet that same criteria as North Korea is inside ASEAN's area, and the North Koreans are not reasonable actors. 

 

There wasn't really any significant danger that the Cold War would break out in South East Asia. Who knows if KJU might decide to start threatening its neighbours the next time there is a dispute.

 

To try to provide "balance" this time is the policy equivalent of sticking ones head in the sand.

 

Edited September 7, 2017 by Samui Bodoh

[Valentine]

I don't recall ASEAN ever making a firm commitment on any foreign policy.

[Samui Bodoh]

1 hour ago, Valentine said:

I don't recall ASEAN ever making a firm commitment on any foreign policy.

 

I strongly agree with your low opinion of ASEAN . However, I think there is a nuance here.

 

In the 1960s until the 1990s, ASEAN made a strategic decision to do nothing (and firmly committed to it) and to say in a unified voice "stay out of our garden!". In those times of the Cold War, it was a successful policy.

 

The problem is that after one successful policy, there was a lack of coherent and/or critical thinking regarding future policies. In short, the organization saw one success and decided that was the way to go in all future issues. It is a shame really, if ASEAN were ever to get its act together, they could be a valuable voice in solving the South China Sea dispute and other regional matters.

 

Instead, they turned themselves into a useless, powerless and impotent talk shop.

 

 

Edited September 8, 2017 by Samui Bodoh

[ChrisY1]

ASEAN really hasn't done very much at all.....most member countries are fiercely independent....

All the talk is spin.

[smileydude]

ASEAN is hardly unified when it comes to stances.  Look at the South China Sea conflict.  It's mostly we don't butt into your business if you don't butt into ours policy.  It's all about economic trading, not geo-politics.

ASEAN will play a really good sitting on the fence thing between the US and China who are the real players in this conflict with NK.

[smileydude]

5 hours ago, Valentine said:

I don't recall ASEAN ever making a firm commitment on any foreign policy.

They won't because the Asian style of foreign policy is "We don't butt into your business so don't butt into ours".

ASEAN are not as ideological as western countries because most of them still have developing economies and really don't have the luxury or clout to think beyond keeping their economies growing and people happy.

Edited September 8, 2017 by smileydude

[seajae]

typical thai logic, dont do whats right, do what keeps profits rolling in. The world is p*ssed at north korea but Thailand doesnt want to upset the apple cart in case china gets upset at them, shows how pathetic their logic is

[Srikcir]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

“The US might adopt containment as was used with Iran

Will Trump then impose trade sanctions against countries trading with North Korea such as Thailand?

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnunchin:

• "The president will consider that at the appropriate time once he gives the U.N. time to act,"
• "I have an executive order prepared. It's ready to go to the president. It will authorize me to stop doing trade, and put sanctions on anybody that does trade with North Korea."

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/06/mnuchin-warns-us-may-seek-sanctions-on-north-korea-trade-partners.html

What has Prayut's government done for the U.S. that would be cause for Thailand's exemption?

 

[OJAS]

7 hours ago, Valentine said:

I don't recall ASEAN ever making a firm commitment on any foreign policy.

 

5 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

 

I strongly agree with your low opinion of ASEAN . However, I think there is a nuance here.

 

In the 1960s until the 1990s, ASEAN made a strategic decision to do nothing (and firmly committed to it) and to say in a unified voice "stay out of our garden!". In those times of the Cold War, it was a successful policy.

 

The problem is that after one successful policy, there was a lack of coherent and/or critical thinking regarding future policies. In short, the organization saw one success and decided that was the way to go in all future issues. It is a shame really, if ASEAN were ever to get its act together, they could be a valuable voice in solving the South China Sea dispute and other regional matters.

 

Instead, they turned themselves into a useless, powerless and impotent talk shop.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, ChrisY1 said:

ASEAN really hasn't done very much at all.....most member countries are fiercely independent....

All the talk is spin.

Give me ASEAN any time over that Frankenstein's monster called the EU whose sole aim is to eradicate whatever vestiges of independence might still exist among European countries through the creation of a super-state which will ultimately be doomed to failure like the USSR was. Thank goodness my home country will be well out of this shambolic mess in 18 months time!

[toddsaed]

funny how other countries assume they can dictate to N and S Korea, but not take any dictation,

they will probably reunify, N Korea has talked against foreign invasion for decades, nothing happened

they try to get economic help that way, and trade, the crazy orange man is the wild  card

[natway09]

ASEAN is a toothless tiger that will sit on the fence & get nowhere forever.

South China Sea was the first major issue where they could & should have stuck together. Nope

Thailand is trading with North Korea so its anything for a buck  (& to get the high speed train for the elite built)

[bkk7]

What a dumb article. ASEAN means nothing to NK and NK means nothing to ASEAN. NK is an almost nonexistent trading partner for any country other than China, and any refugee crisis heaped on China would be good for ASEAN, while most ASEAN countries have strong relationships with the US, and several are adversaries in trade and with island disputes. There's literally nothing to balance.

[Bluespunk]

14 hours ago, OJAS said:

 

 

Give me ASEAN any time over that Frankenstein's monster called the EU whose sole aim is to eradicate whatever vestiges of independence might still exist among European countries through the creation of a super-state which will ultimately be doomed to failure like the USSR was. Thank goodness my home country will be well out of this shambolic mess in 18 months time!

Yeah, right. 

[plachon]

16 hours ago, seajae said:

typical thai logic, dont do whats right, do what keeps profits rolling in. The world is p*ssed at north korea but Thailand doesnt want to upset the apple cart in case china gets upset at them, shows how pathetic their logic is

NB: The US is not the "world" and vice versa. I know this is a difficult concept to grasp for most Americans, who have it instilled in them from an early age. Right now, a greater proportion of nations are more "pissed" at the US for a whole host of reasons, including some of its former allies furious that the US has pulled out of the Paris Climate Accord, and who now see it being led by a loose cannon president who is as nutty as a fruit cake and far more dangerous than the other guy with a lousy haircut in North Korea, who seems to be running rings round the Orange One in the White House. In reality, both are as unbalanced as each other. 

[leeneeds]

USA, continues to believe in the world war 2  mentality of we are the mighty,

Dictating to those that have not, will not , just does nothing to their standing in the world,

Iran , cuba relations have cooled to a sensible level of now dialogue  can happen, 

looking from some one else "S perspective is very hard to do and the Americans are the very worst at doing so, as they have their own stance and are not flexible.

If the world gave every country the bomb, with all the warnings fixed into place that the first country to launch would be vaporized by the other countries, a stale mate, would happen there is no winner, 

The USA and Russia are still at logger heads with many issues yet the space station is still manned by both, so is that an example of communication and what can be achieved by giving a little each.

Trump grandstanding , throwing dispersions and threats has undermined even further the USA standing, (School boy taunting ) A statesman he is not, nor will ever be.

China does not want further encroachment of the USA on the Korean peninsula so they will not reign in too much on N Korea, 

The days of super powers dominated society is gone, the USA needs to pull back to its own borders and stay within, they have enough space intelligence  to know if a preemptive strike is coming and the capabilities to shoot down such,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ChrisY1]

19 hours ago, OJAS said:

 

 

Give me ASEAN any time over that Frankenstein's monster called the EU whose sole aim is to eradicate whatever vestiges of independence might still exist among European countries through the creation of a super-state which will ultimately be doomed to failure like the USSR was. Thank goodness my home country will be well out of this shambolic mess in 18 months time!

Who's talking about the EU?