Will US$ Gain Some Strength Soon?

[scorecard]

 

Just wondering if the US$ is likely to get back to around the 35.5Baht to 1US$ anytime soon.

 

Can some of the currency gurus please share their current thoughts on this.

 

Thanks.

Edited October 25, 2017 by metisdead
Unnecessary usage of ALL CAPS in topic title removed.

[Pib]

Just as soon as the "baht" loses strength we'll get back to 35.   Right now the baht continues strong against most currencies.   

[KiChakayan]

Could get worse before it gets better. Imagine a lengthy Trump impeachment procedure? Uncertainty would send USD reeling, with a possible rebound as soon as a trustworthy successor moves into the White House.

 

On the THB side of the equation, I wondering where the strength comes from. They are probably feeding it with blue pills.

[scorecard]

24 minutes ago, Pib said:

Just as soon as the "baht" loses strength we'll get back to 35.   Right now the baht continues strong against most currencies.   

 

Thanks.

 

What's your professional guess as to when the Baht strength will subside, 3 mths, 6 mths, 1 yr, .....?

[janclaes47]

Anyone who would know with certainty how any currency will perform in the future, short or long, will surely not post on this forum as he would be too busy playing with the girls on his yacht in Monaco.

[ExpatOilWorker]

It is really anybodies guess, but if you want any guidelines then watch the list of candidates for the Fed chairman that will be sent to congress on November 3rd.

The market is expecting a 25 base point increase in the Fed rate when they meet in December, so if they follow through, this should be a non-event.

Sometime in February they will announce the new Fed chairman. If Yellen is not re-elected, it might set the tone for a stronger dollar in 2018.

[lannarebirth]

10 hours ago, scorecard said:

 

Thanks.

 

What's your professional guess as to when the Baht strength will subside, 3 mths, 6 mths, 1 yr, .....?

 

IF the THB got back to 35.5 I would expect it get much weaker still..  But I don't expect it to get back to 35.5 .  

[lannarebirth]

38 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

 

IF the THB got back to 35.5 I would expect it to get much weaker still..  But I don't expect it to get back to 35.5 .  

 

[csabo]

When it was 35 no one was asking when it would go down. Did you think it would continue on an upward trajectory indefinately?  These things rise and fall. You ride the wave you cannot control. Everyone back to your beer. 

[1FinickyOne]

One way to view any market data is that whatever the current price, be it a stock, gold, or the dollar, is determined by a meeting point amongst all current investors, and so, 50% think it will go up and 50% will think it will go down...if you want, look at some charts and make your own decision. 

[Suradit69]

12 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

It is really anybodies guess, but if you want any guidelines then watch the list of candidates for the Fed chairman that will be sent to congress on November 3rd.

The market is expecting a 25 base point increase in the Fed rate when they meet in December, so if they follow through, this should be a non-event.

Sometime in February they will announce the new Fed chairman. If Yellen is not re-elected, it might set the tone for a stronger dollar in 2018.

Dollar strength is influenced in part based on interest rates compared to those in other countries/regions with important currencies, but these days rates depend less on the Fed and more on the markets themselves. Watching the 2 year and 10 year rates recently, there may be a knee jerk reaction to changes by the Fed, but they then move according to market pressure. These days foreign interest in buying US government debt has fallen for political rather than interest rate reasons.

 

while the baht may strengthen or weaken for its own reasons, the main causes for changes is the movement of relative values in the major trade currencies. It used to move in sympathy with the Japanese Yen, but that connection is less important. Dollar, Euro and Yuan movement is more influential.

[timewilltell]

This is an interesting question. On the hone front Trump is pushing the tax cut agenda really hard. I think he will succeed, partly. That agenda will greatly increase the deficit - dollar weaker.

 

Then we have the Swiss, Chinese, Japanese, ECB all involved in buying bonds and equities (SNB owns 2% of Apple and about 300 billion Euros worth of foreign assets) all from printed money. Many assets when sold will lead to weakness in the dollar as money converted back to hone currency. - dollar weaker.

 

But we have the FED who must increase interest rates to balance what Trump is doing or the economy will be enough route for a crash. US will increase rates at least a year before Japan and ECB - dollar stronger.

 

Other countries are fighting a war to keep their currencies weak to bolster a worldwide problem of weak economies so machinations will continue to keep world currencies weaker against the USD.

 

Thailand is both clueless and powerless in the currency markets so you can ignore any reason there but economies in Asia will suffer from protectionism as well as sanctions for their abysmal human rights and environmental / employment issues as time proceeds. 

 

How all this will affect the baht? Well the baht will likely weaken substantially from where it is now as the economy is shot and the Thais cannot run the country efficiently with all the corruption and lack of knowledge. It is like a weak branch blown wherever the big players blow it. There has been substantial investment in Asia because of the lack of yield in the U.S. and Europe. As that dynamic changes the money will rush out.

 

Everything is a guess but for my money the baht will take a hammering in a year or so as rates and yields rise in the rest of the world and suddenly the debt if higher yield dodgy risky countries debt for yield looks much mire precarious to investors who suddenly see a safer yield paying alternative. My 2 cents.

[Pib]

13 hours ago, scorecard said:

 

Thanks.

 

What's your professional guess as to when the Baht strength will subside, 3 mths, 6 mths, 1 yr, .....?

I'm going to guess by the end of 2018 because the Fed will probably raise U.S. internet rates around 3 times while the Bank of Thailand stands pat or maybe only raises once.  Plus, I expect the Thai economy to have low growth next year due to continued Thai election uncertainty/discontent.

 

[lannarebirth]

40 minutes ago, timewilltell said:

This is an interesting question. On the hone front Trump is pushing the tax cut agenda really hard. I think he will succeed, partly. That agenda will greatly increase the deficit - dollar weaker.

 

Then we have the Swiss, Chinese, Japanese, ECB all involved in buying bonds and equities (SNB owns 2% of Apple and about 300 billion Euros worth of foreign assets) all from printed money. Many assets when sold will lead to weakness in the dollar as money converted back to hone currency. - dollar weaker.

 

But we have the FED who must increase interest rates to balance what Trump is doing or the economy will be enough route for a crash. US will increase rates at least a year before Japan and ECB - dollar stronger.

 

Other countries are fighting a war to keep their currencies weak to bolster a worldwide problem of weak economies so machinations will continue to keep world currencies weaker against the USD.

 

Thailand is both clueless and powerless in the currency markets so you can ignore any reason there but economies in Asia will suffer from protectionism as well as sanctions for their abysmal human rights and environmental / employment issues as time proceeds. 

 

How all this will affect the baht? Well the baht will likely weaken substantially from where it is now as the economy is shot and the Thais cannot run the country efficiently with all the corruption and lack of knowledge. It is like a weak branch blown wherever the big players blow it. There has been substantial investment in Asia because of the lack of yield in the U.S. and Europe. As that dynamic changes the money will rush out.

 

Everything is a guess but for my money the baht will take a hammering in a year or so as rates and yields rise in the rest of the world and suddenly the debt if higher yield dodgy risky countries debt for yield looks much mire precarious to investors who suddenly see a safer yield paying alternative. My 2 cents.

 

So, in other words, until it shows it is weak enough to trade above the 200 week moving average @ 34.013 the trend continues for it to strengthen.  Thanks

[gamini]

1 hour ago, timewilltell said:

This is an interesting question. On the hone front Trump is pushing the tax cut agenda really hard. I think he will succeed, partly. That agenda will greatly increase the deficit - dollar weaker.

 

Then we have the Swiss, Chinese, Japanese, ECB all involved in buying bonds and equities (SNB owns 2% of Apple and about 300 billion Euros worth of foreign assets) all from printed money. Many assets when sold will lead to weakness in the dollar as money converted back to hone currency. - dollar weaker.

 

But we have the FED who must increase interest rates to balance what Trump is doing or the economy will be enough route for a crash. US will increase rates at least a year before Japan and ECB - dollar stronger.

 

Other countries are fighting a war to keep their currencies weak to bolster a worldwide problem of weak economies so machinations will continue to keep world currencies weaker against the USD.

 

Thailand is both clueless and powerless in the currency markets so you can ignore any reason there but economies in Asia will suffer from protectionism as well as sanctions for their abysmal human rights and environmental / employment issues as time proceeds. 

 

How all this will affect the baht? Well the baht will likely weaken substantially from where it is now as the economy is shot and the Thais cannot run the country efficiently with all the corruption and lack of knowledge. It is like a weak branch blown wherever the big players blow it. There has been substantial investment in Asia because of the lack of yield in the U.S. and Europe. As that dynamic changes the money will rush out.

 

Everything is a guess but for my money the baht will take a hammering in a year or so as rates and yields rise in the rest of the world and suddenly the debt if higher yield dodgy risky countries debt for yield looks much mire precarious to investors who suddenly see a safer yield paying alternative. My 2 cents.

For years,Thai bashers like you have been ranting on about the the Thai econonmy and the baht going down. But quite the opposite has been happening. This country is far better run than the UK and consequently it's doing a lot better! You will see the UK pound go down to 29 baht once they leave the EU.

+

 

[chicowoodduck]

Only if it spends some more time in the local gym....lol....??

[joecoolfrog]

1 hour ago, gamini said:

For years,Thai bashers like you have been ranting on about the the Thai econonmy and the baht going down. But quite the opposite has been happening. This country is far better run than the UK and consequently it's doing a lot better! You will see the UK pound go down to 29 baht once they leave the EU.

+

 

29 ? That's utterly delusional ! Didn't you also predict that there would definitely be elections in Thailand by 2017 at the very latest ?

[Paul Laycock1]

Who gives a crap.

[johnnysunshine]

Some very big global shifts will change the complexion of all currencies as early as November or possibly later and the dollar is very likely to devalue significantly I believe.    

Remember that these are fiat currencies and are not backed by heavy metals or cryptocurrencies,  just superficial smiles saying that "you can trust us with your monies" and that has not been true since the USA went off of the gold standard in 1972 and the American dollar has since been  backed by nothing and the USA is trillions of dollars in debt.    

Get some gold or silver or both to have a store of value which transcends currency fluctuations.

[lucjoker]

17 hours ago, KiChakayan said:

Could get worse before it gets better. Imagine a lengthy Trump impeachment procedure? Uncertainty would send USD reeling, with a possible rebound as soon as a trustworthy successor moves into the White House.

 

On the THB side of the equation, I wondering where the strength comes from. They are probably feeding it with blue pills.

If the scandal about Hilary Clinton and Obama breaks out  ......i guess even Trump will not be able to stop the dollar's free fall ................read the news papers ?

So ..good news....than we can start buying $$$ for 22 bht .

[curtklay]

Wait here...I'll check my crystal ball.

[Foozool]

US $ became almost 36 Tbt, because some fools thought Trump is going to do some magic, but it just took 6 months, nothing more than lies and bully. Just an empty drum with a laud noise, nothing more. 

Dont expect It goes more than 33.5 unless Thai baht falls.  

[ToS2014]

19 hours ago, KiChakayan said:

Could get worse before it gets better. Imagine a lengthy Trump impeachment procedure? Uncertainty would send USD reeling, with a possible rebound as soon as a trustworthy successor moves into the White House.

 

On the THB side of the equation, I wondering where the strength comes from. They are probably feeding it with blue pills.

Why on earth do you have to insert your personal political opinion?  Oh, silly me the former POTUS had a much stronger $, and all the 'smart experts' predicted a market crash if Trump was elected.  Still trying to gauge the 'top' before I sell my windfall.  Either way, it won't make it's way over here so what the exchange rate is, too me, well I budget my month on 30THB/$....anything above it I'm saving; I know that is a foreign term.

[KiChakayan]

8 minutes ago, ToS2014 said:

Why on earth do you have to insert your personal political opinion?  Oh, silly me the former POTUS had a much stronger $, and all the 'smart experts' predicted a market crash if Trump was elected.  Still trying to gauge the 'top' before I sell my windfall.  Either way, it won't make it's way over here so what the exchange rate is, too me, well I budget my month on 30THB/$....anything above it I'm saving; I know that is a foreign term.

Where on earth did you see a political opinion?  

[kingstonkid]

Ther are a few things going on that will make things interesting.  

 

First is the feeling that the Dow is in for a correction.

Second is the unknown with Congress where the obamashare and the tax re3form are still up in the air.

 

The third is the unknown about the new Russian news although I do not see it as a big thing.

 

Trump has only affected the market in a good way so he is a nonstarter.

 

Thailand will affect it's currency next year with the elections.  It may stay strong or dive depending on who get's in.

 

For now, with all the turmoil in Europe and the US, I do not see anything really happening to any currency other than maybe the yen

[rocketman777]

 

May see a rally  as it is very oversold and provided maintains  support around 33.00 against the 2014 high see chart. If it does make a rally it could get back to 34.50.  Also the Dollar Index looks as if it may have made a head and shoulder bottom on the daily chart which would be confirmed at a price break above  94.00

[lannarebirth]

2 hours ago, lucjoker said:

If the scandal about Hilary Clinton and Obama breaks out  ......i guess even Trump will not be able to stop the dollar's free fall ................read the news papers ?

So ..good news....than we can start buying $$$ for 22 bht .

That would be fantastic, but you have to realize that almost none of the people reading this ever invest in Baht denominated assets, let alone Baht denominated income.

[janclaes47]

1 hour ago, Foozool said:

US $ became almost 36 Tbt, because some fools thought Trump is going to do some magic,

 

Trump is still doing his magic each and every day, but you are too blind to see it.

 

Look at the market, and earnings and employment figures published lately, and it only can get better.

[Shiver]

If you look at the debt monetisation it's hard to see it ever being strong, though in practice the hyperinflation isn't highly visible by standard metrics.  The most basic number crunching would suggest it's there though.

 

More of a challenge would be the announcement of the PetroYuan coming in about 2 months, which could be a serious challenge to the USD relevance outside of the USA.

I think any changes are more likely to come from the Baht side, since it's a pegged currency and they can manipulate a peg however they like (unless they break it).

[lannarebirth]

11 minutes ago, Shiver said:

If you look at the debt monetisation it's hard to see it ever being strong, though in practice the hyperinflation isn't highly visible by standard metrics.  The most basic number crunching would suggest it's there though.

 

More of a challenge would be the announcement of the PetroYuan coming in about 2 months, which could be a serious challenge to the USD relevance outside of the USA.

I think any changes are more likely to come from the Baht side, since it's a pegged currency and they can manipulate a peg however they like (unless they break it).

 

It is hard to know where to begin. So I'm just going to let your post stand as a monument to ignorance.