Thaidream Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Thailand will move back towards the West and especially the United States. Thai foreign policy has been very consistent for centuries- it bends with the wind and with Trump in power- the wind is blowing Thailand's way. Thailand knows that the Chinese exploit countries while the Americans will not.The US economy is strengthening and China is not- China is spending huge amounts of its reserves to keep its population docile and to maintain the control of the Communist Party. Chinese goods are inferior to those made in most other countries and eventually worthless and eventually China will not be able to buy its way out as it's work force will need higher wages which will put the economy at more of a disadvantage. Trump will eventually end the war in Afghanistan and get the US military out of the Middle East and will eventually pull out of Europe. The European countries have been exploiting America for years, keeping their military budgets low, while America provides security. Trump will end this because he sees no advantage in keeping the current relationship. The American economy and the US dollar will remain strong and with the move towards Asia rather than Europe- Thailand will be back in the American orbit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artben Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 4 hours ago, Peterw42 said: Last time I looked , the US is blaming Muslims, immigration and free trade for all their problems, and building walls (both physical and metaphorical) to block immigration, investment, trade and partnerships. Why would any country want to engage with that level of isolationism. Suggest you might want to get your facts straight. US is blaming Muslims for terror attacks they have committed or are attempting to perpetrate and to prevent ILLEGAL immigration. We are a country of immigrants and that, along with a common language, are two of of our greatest assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KiChakayan Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 5 hours ago, yellowboat said: You just do not see anything coming from the west that competes with China in the region. How about the hordes of penny pinching old Farangs and digital nomads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellowboat Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 4 hours ago, Briggsy said: A highly ambiguous sentence, perhaps deliberately so! "exciting" in what way? Let's assume a good way. 'good' for whom? China is not known for its largesse, rather for its deals that give short-term benefits to the recipient and long-term benefits to China to the detriment of the recipient. "Difficult to beat" from what perspective? The U.S. funded and put in place much of Thailand's infrastructure including deep sea ports, airports, major roads and oil refineries. Is "railway diplomacy" a euphemism for 'huge bribes'? I am trying to see where you are going with this? The Chinese wish to revitalize ancient trade routes with a steel wheel on a steel rail. To this day, it is the most efficient way to move goods and people. The costs transport will drop exponentially while speeds increase between Europe and Asia. Bribes are a part of every infrastructure project in this part of the world. The US funded projects in Thailand some of which are antiquated. Ask the few middle class Thais if they enjoy riding the SRT. The US's own railway options are quite small compared to that of China. China is now in a position to grow its railway business well outside its borders. The world has a need and China can supply the need. Only the Japanese offer any competitiveness at this time. It looks as though all roads will lead to China as they did a 1000 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dunroaming Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 7 hours ago, punchjudy said: culturally & geographically there is going to be a lot more in common with china than the self-righteous white knight from across the pacific. Most influential Thais are of Chinese origin so the answer to the original question is no. Thailand's ties with China are deep and embedded whereas their relationship with the US is transient at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreasyFingers Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, dunroaming said: Most influential Thais are of Chinese origin so the answer to the original question is no. Thailand's ties with China are deep and embedded whereas their relationship with the US is transient at best. Yes. I have never been able to understand why so many posters on TVF are against any Thai/Chinese relationship. Maybe they are Americans. Went to a museum in China Town a couple of weeks ago. The number of immigrants fron China in the earlier times was staggering. Without knowing the full numbers the Chinese must have made up 5-10% of the population, and with inter-marrying, Thais with chinese ancestors would be larger than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigt3365 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 minute ago, GreasyFingers said: Maybe they are Americans. More like people who understand the nature of relationships with China. They tend to be one sided. Except for those signing the contracts locally. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellowboat Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, KiChakayan said: How about the hordes of penny pinching old Farangs and digital nomads? Actually some of the digital nomads are silly computer professionals that do not have the good sense to set up in Saigon. They get seduced by the creature comforts of Thailand before moving on. Some of them posses programming abilities lacking in Thailand. They could be an asset, but are passed over because they are not understood much like computer programming in general in the country. Edited October 30, 2017 by yellowboat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreasyFingers Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, craigt3365 said: More like people who understand the nature of relationships with China. I think you mean the people who understand the american view of the nature of relationships with China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zydeco Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 minute ago, GreasyFingers said: Yes. I have never been able to understand why so many posters on TVF are against any Thai/Chinese relationship. Maybe they are Americans. Americans? Most Americans and American policymakers have little care whichever way Thailand goes. Thailand doesn't figure into their big picture. American (and other) expats in Thailand are a different matter. Chinese expansion is fraught with adherence to one party rule, totalitarian ideologies, censorship, mercantilism, and territorial expansionism. All of which directly effects them and others. You might want to ask why so many Vietnamese, Japanese, Koreans, Filipinos, and others are so worried about Chinese communist inroads. Yes, Communist inroads. This congress the past week expanded upon the party's role in society and life. China is becoming more of a doctrinaire communist society than it was just a decade ago. Anybody living next to a totalitarian behemoth should worry. And I'll bet more than a handful of Thais are worried, too. Just look at how they respond to being invaded by Chinese tourists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigt3365 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Just now, GreasyFingers said: I think you mean the people who understand the american view of the nature of relationships with China. No. The view of people who've actually been through it with China. Take a trip down the Silk Road sometime. Ask the locals how's business going with China. I don't think any of them are American. LOL One of many articles. https://www.diplomaticourier.com/the-long-term-dangers-of-chinese-investment-in-africa/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/riskmap/2015/07/08/chinas-investment-in-africa-the-african-perspective/#67a2dd65459e Quote ‘Made in China’ products over the past two decades have had a devastating effect on local manufacturing. For example, textiles from China have decimated the once thriving textile industry in South Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atyclb Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 8 hours ago, ramrod711 said: Trump couldn't organize a train wreck, there is no reason to believe he understands the problems that any Asian countries face when dealing with China. any and likey all presidents would need to be briefed on such matters to be able to better understand the situation. Obama, bush, carter, Reagan, etc etc. I am not in love with trump but I find myself less in love with astonishingly ignorant statements like your's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JemJem Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 The short answer is simple : NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Loh Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 We are looking at China dominating the world stage for the near future. USA inward and partisan foreign policies will see them stepping away from international participation. Dropping TPP, climate accord, clean power are moving USA into the past. Meanwhile China has made no secret that they want to dominate the economic and political vacuum created by Trump and looks like winning the future. Meanwhile Trump seem engaged in polarizing the country and destablizing global alliances. Trump is not interested in Thailand's drift nor he has the capacity to influence Thailand getting close to China. Simply, China offer better economics and steady partnership to Thailand than USA; at least during Trump's tenure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dunroaming Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 2 hours ago, Eric Loh said: We are looking at China dominating the world stage for the near future. USA inward and partisan foreign policies will see them stepping away from international participation. Dropping TPP, climate accord, clean power are moving USA into the past. Meanwhile China has made no secret that they want to dominate the economic and political vacuum created by Trump and looks like winning the future. Meanwhile Trump seem engaged in polarizing the country and destablizing global alliances. Trump is not interested in Thailand's drift nor he has the capacity to influence Thailand getting close to China. Simply, China offer better economics and steady partnership to Thailand than USA; at least during Trump's tenure. The situation with the USA could be reversed and will be once Trump has been removed as POTUS. I have done business in China for more than thirty years and have built up quite a few friendships there. I am particularly close to one person having watched his children grow up and even helped him with the process of getting his son into university. They all call me uncle and send me cards on my birthday. I have been guest of honour at their New Year banquet more than once and I consider our friendship very solid. However I was told some time ago that if I was drowning in a river and close by their was a Chinese person drowning in the same river my friend would dive in and save the Chinese stranger rather than me. Such is the mindset of the Chinese that they will always help their countrymen over anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LomSak27 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 15 hours ago, webfact said: Can Trump reverse Thailand’s drift towards China by Qi Lin The real question .............. why would he want to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonah Tenner Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 12 hours ago, chainarong said: How Long is a piece of string , ................................... High morale is required of the person who sells elastics by the meter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briggsy Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 16 hours ago, yellowboat said: The Chinese wish to revitalize ancient trade routes with a steel wheel on a steel rail. To this day, it is the most efficient way to move goods and people. The costs transport will drop exponentially while speeds increase between Europe and Asia. Bribes are a part of every infrastructure project in this part of the world. The US funded projects in Thailand some of which are antiquated. Ask the few middle class Thais if they enjoy riding the SRT. The US's own railway options are quite small compared to that of China. China is now in a position to grow its railway business well outside its borders. The world has a need and China can supply the need. Only the Japanese offer any competitiveness at this time. It looks as though all roads will lead to China as they did a 1000 years ago. Ok, so your underlying message was that rail networks and trade with China are both desirable and on the up. China is the growing world power, economically and politically, so growing influence over Thailand is inevitable. Hopefully South East Asia does not get dragged into a military conflict again but if it did, that would be a true litmus test of Thailand's long-term strategic policies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigt3365 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 9 hours ago, LomSak27 said: The real question .............. why would he want to? Money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnnyngai Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 22 hours ago, zydeco said: China eventually creates problems with every country on its borders: India, Vietnam, Russia, Bhutan. Even the Burmese are backing away from them as quickly as possible. Go to Laos and ask the people who deal with Chinese what they think of China. Not to mention that every country one step beyond China's borders also fears them: Japan, South Korea. Then, you've got all the 'stans whose populace can't be happy with what is happening to Uighurs in China. Come to think of it, since all those 'stans once belonged to Russia, I wonder how long before Russia and China get into a direct conflict over the 'stans future political orientation. If Thailand thinks they are going to be allowed to be anything other than a vassal state, they had better think again. Thailand could soon find itself in a Myanmar type situation--totally reliant on China and isolated from the West. And what happens if China goes to Cold War status with the West and all those Thai industrial exports to China that are turned into finished products exported to the West suddenly find themselves in the embargo? China, India, Vietnam, Russia, Laos and all the stans are all equally as corrupt. They should know how to get along with each other. The Chinese Uighurs are difficult to deal with because they will not abandon their muslin faith and be absorbed by the Han Chinese. The Manchurians ruled China for 260 years, but it only took the Han Chinese 100 years to completely absorbed them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnnyngai Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 21 hours ago, Thaidream said: Thailand will move back towards the West and especially the United States. Thai foreign policy has been very consistent for centuries- it bends with the wind and with Trump in power- the wind is blowing Thailand's way. Thailand knows that the Chinese exploit countries while the Americans will not.The US economy is strengthening and China is not- China is spending huge amounts of its reserves to keep its population docile and to maintain the control of the Communist Party. Chinese goods are inferior to those made in most other countries and eventually worthless and eventually China will not be able to buy its way out as it's work force will need higher wages which will put the economy at more of a disadvantage. Trump will eventually end the war in Afghanistan and get the US military out of the Middle East and will eventually pull out of Europe. The European countries have been exploiting America for years, keeping their military budgets low, while America provides security. Trump will end this because he sees no advantage in keeping the current relationship. The American economy and the US dollar will remain strong and with the move towards Asia rather than Europe- Thailand will be back in the American orbit. " China is spending huge amounts of its reserves to keep its population docile and to maintain the control of the Communist Party. " China works it citizens to death so there will be enough money to build infrastructures. Vietnamese and Chinese suffer the highest level of tax pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnnyngai Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 19 hours ago, craigt3365 said: No. The view of people who've actually been through it with China. Take a trip down the Silk Road sometime. Ask the locals how's business going with China. I don't think any of them are American. LOL One of many articles. https://www.diplomaticourier.com/the-long-term-dangers-of-chinese-investment-in-africa/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/riskmap/2015/07/08/chinas-investment-in-africa-the-african-perspective/#67a2dd65459e All third world people work like dogs, and China has many more dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Loh Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 16 hours ago, dunroaming said: d. However I was told some time ago that if I was drowning in a river and close by their was a Chinese person drowning in the same river my friend would dive in and save the Chinese stranger rather than me. Such is the mindset of the Chinese that they will always help their countrymen over anyone else. You probably right unless that drowning person is my mother in law, I will save you. Just joking. Love my MIL. However I will still come back for you nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGW Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 31 minutes ago, Johnnyngai said: All third world people work like dogs, and China has many more dogs. You haven't been to China in recent years have you? I spend a fair amount of time there and certainly don't see any working like "dogs' the truth is by western standards they are overall enjoying a very comfortable lifestyle! But then they choose to spend their money on the country, not building a war machine the same as the civilized 'western world'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rancid Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Best to look at it from a Thai perspective I suppose. China is the upcoming powerhouse with an economic vision of the new silk road, the US sadly seems to have only one vision of more wars to keep the pockets of their corrupt arms industry full. The US is an empire in decline, utterly corrupt and rotting from the inside out, China also is corrupt but is the growing power. Suspect Thailand will try to hedge their bets as always... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigt3365 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, CGW said: You haven't been to China in recent years have you? I spend a fair amount of time there and certainly don't see any working like "dogs' the truth is by western standards they are overall enjoying a very comfortable lifestyle! But then they choose to spend their money on the country, not building a war machine the same as the civilized 'western world'! Right. So they no longer work in factories long hours, 6-7 days a week? Really? They stop by Starbucks on their way to work in their BMW, head home to a big apartment with all the mod cons? Wow...too funny. Not sure what news you follow, but China is aggressively building a war machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigt3365 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 15 minutes ago, Rancid said: Best to look at it from a Thai perspective I suppose. China is the upcoming powerhouse with an economic vision of the new silk road, the US sadly seems to have only one vision of more wars to keep the pockets of their corrupt arms industry full. The US is an empire in decline, utterly corrupt and rotting from the inside out, China also is corrupt but is the growing power. Suspect Thailand will try to hedge their bets as always... Corrupt arms industry full? Seriously? Good gosh. Your anti-US post is out of order. But that's to be expected from you. P.S. the US economy is doing fantastic. I know you don't like to hear that. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreasyFingers Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 21 hours ago, craigt3365 said: No. The view of people who've actually been through it with China. Take a trip down the Silk Road sometime. Ask the locals how's business going with China. I don't think any of them are American. LOL One of many articles. https://www.diplomaticourier.com/the-long-term-dangers-of-chinese-investment-in-africa/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/riskmap/2015/07/08/chinas-investment-in-africa-the-african-perspective/#67a2dd65459e Err! They are american publications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigt3365 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, GreasyFingers said: Err! They are american publications. The ones in German, French and ???? are harder to read. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGW Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 hour ago, craigt3365 said: Right. So they no longer work in factories long hours, 6-7 days a week? Really? They stop by Starbucks on their way to work in their BMW, head home to a big apartment with all the mod cons? Wow...too funny. Not sure what news you follow, but China is aggressively building a war machine. Funny? obviously you haven't been there! what's the saying? ignorance is Bliss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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