webfact Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Will Southern Thailand Turn to Jihad? By Austin Bodetti Only peace talks can keep Islamic State-style jihadism from coming to Thailand In a world where the news media focuses on the failed states of the Muslim world, such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen, Thailand often escapes attention. Though a Buddhist-majority country, Thailand suffers from one of the longest-running Muslim insurgencies in Asia. Malay irredentists and secessionists describing themselves as Islamists have hit southern Thailand with beheadings and car bombs, nightmarish tactics rarely seen outside the Middle East. Even so, analysts and journalists must appreciate Thailand as an outlier in the history of jihadism. A report released this month by the International Crisis Group, Jihadism in Southern Thailand: A Phantom Menace, offers several insights into the enigmatic insurgency along the Malay-Thai border. “To date, there is no evidence of jihadists making inroads among the separatists fronts fighting for what they see as liberation of their homeland, Patani,” says the report. “But the conflict and a series of ISIS scares in Thailand are fanning fears of a new terrorist threat. Such fears are not irrational, though are largely misplaced and should not obscure the calamity of the insurgency and the need to end it.” Even scholar Rohan Gunaratna, who heads the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research and often proves quick to label any conflict in the Muslim world an outgrowth of terrorism, has admitted: “Despite the rhetoric about ‘global jihad,’ the conflict in southern Thailand, however, remains predominantly local. Full story: https://thediplomat.com/2017/11/will-southern-thailand-turn-to-jihad/ -- THE DIPLOMAT 2017-11-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisY1 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 (edited) With claims that there are well over 100K illegal people in Thailand, it would seem that it's probably relatively easy to enter, stay and create havoc. The RTP are never going to get on top of these issues.....similarly, the military......what's the option? All this talk about the southern conflict remaining local is not right...with extremists in the Philipines and Indonesia.....why wouldn't they come to Thailand? Edited November 20, 2017 by ChrisY1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samui Bodoh Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 (edited) Interesting (full) article. They make a good case that the conflict in the South isn't really part of the global Islamist movement. However, the takeaway that I get is that it could be a part of it unless it is managed professionally. And it is that part that I find very scary. I don't see any serious conflict resolution occurring at the moment, just a lot of empty rhetoric. Let's hope the two sides get together soon while they are still in control of the situation. If they fail to do so, they might not have the option in the future if/when new 'leaders' arrive... Edited November 20, 2017 by Samui Bodoh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
observer90210 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 (edited) Make sure they get enough food, games , pu*sy and booze...and believe it or not !!!...none will be stupid enough to blow it all for any crazy religious cause !! Edited November 20, 2017 by observer90210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonray Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, observer90210 said: Make sure they get enough food, games , pu*sy and booze...and believe it or not !!!...none will be stupid enough to blow it all for any crazy religious cause !! It hasn't worked for US Congressmen, why would it work here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAG Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 It is only a question of time.And with the Jihadhists will come attacks north of the current conflict zone.It is inevitable. Sent from my KENNY using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezzra Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Now days jihadist are killing and blowing things for the sake of just that, to seed mayhem and confusions, and nothing really to do with religion, to create havoc for the sake of justifying the the money they get paid by third party governments/entities and propel with vested interests in the outcomes to suite their agendas..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nausea Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 I guess the separatists' local control prevents Jihadists getting a foothold, and I guess the separatists don't take it North cos they're happy with being on the backburner, and I guess Bangkok doesn't care so long as it stays down South, and I guess separatists run a few rackets that generate some income; but I'm only guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardColeman Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 One small active Jihadi cell and Bang (literally) goes the Thai tourism industry and if yo think Thailand is poor now, wait till the farang leave. Only good Jihadi is a dead one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hansnl Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 hour ago, observer90210 said: Make sure they get enough food, games , pu*sy and booze...and believe it or not !!!...none will be stupid enough to blow it all for any crazy religious cause !! They will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trainman34014 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Being pushed out of Syria and Iraq means Islamic Savages are looking for new homes; where better than Southern Thailand where Police and Army are all but useless and can't even keep Separatists their own country under control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry15 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Why should the South of Thailand be an exeption. The worldwar III, like Nostradamus predicted is alraedy in full swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stargeezr Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 It wll be a sad day indeed in this Buddhist country, if the Muslim minority in the south cause so much trouble and let in ISIL and other Muslim terrorists to battle the Buddhist military, police, teachers and bankers, many ,who are also muslim. I hope the people of Thailand stay united and deal with this southern before it gets right out of control, Geezer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srikcir Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 19 minutes ago, Stargrazer9889 said: the Muslim minority in the south Do you realize it's a Muslim minority in Thailand, but not in the south? In the southern four provinces Muslims account for 95% of the population. That didn't result from immigration of Muslims into the south. It was from an Islamic Sultanate that existed from around the mid-13th century CE until defeated by the Kingdom of Siam in 1785 and annexation recognized by Britain by treaty in 1909. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pattani_Kingdom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tifino Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 What are now Burma/Mynamar, and Laos got there Jap-assisted-stolen lands mostly returned after WW2 Pity the same didn't simply happen so in the South as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchooptip Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 I hope they will be able to save these men, it would be miraculous... but sometimes miracles happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srikcir Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 hours ago, nausea said: I guess the separatists' local control prevents Jihadists getting a foothold, and I guess the separatists don't take it North cos they're happy with being on the backburner, and I guess Bangkok doesn't care so long as it stays down South, and I guess separatists run a few rackets that generate some income; but I'm only guessing. The Southern Islamic insurgents appear to be underfunded and under-weaponized. Unlike what we've seen with ISIS fighters. They also haven't resorted to suicide attacks and their IED's are crude compared to Syria and Iraq. Except for alleged connection with the Shrine bombing, they do not operate outside the southern provinces, the historical lands of the former Islamic Pattani Sultanate. The insurgents have sought occasional sanctuary in adjacent Malaysia and likely receive some level of assistance from Muslim radicals (not necessarily ISIS) present in Malaysia. I believe you are correct in your guess that the southern insurgents have resisted reinforcement from ISIS - thus far. It is my guess that because the southern insurgents have kept their fight locally, they have resisted internationalizing the insurgency with recruits from outside of the southern provinces. They have demanded semi-autonomy as part of the Kingdom of Thailand (like between Crimea and Ukraine before the Russian invasion?) and not independence as a state. That's counter to ISIS goals. But if the Thai military continues to insist that the insurgency (largley the BRN) not be given even national legitimacy in negotiations,* radical groups such as ISIS and al Qaeda may manipulate their way into the insurgency with the ultimate aim of creating an independent state. *https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/thailands-forgotten-insurgency/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tifino Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Oh! for good old bad old days, when all one had to worry about were the CTs at Betong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marko kok prong Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 did they not try a truck bomb that was discovered in Phuket a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluespunk Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 7 hours ago, webfact said: Will Southern Thailand Turn to Jihad? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyFriend You Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 10 hours ago, ChrisY1 said: With claims that there are well over 100K illegal people in Thailand, it would seem that it's probably relatively easy to enter, stay and create havoc. The RTP are never going to get on top of these issues.....similarly, the military......what's the option? All this talk about the southern conflict remaining local is not right...with extremists in the Philipines and Indonesia.....why wouldn't they come to Thailand? They can buy all sorts of weapons across any of three borders, and in country as well, its a match made in heaven...........yes sir, why wouldn;t they come to Thailand where passing a little brown envelope to the right people gets you carte blanche to dio whatever you want. Stay Tuned, the worst is yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
connda Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 (edited) "Only peace talks can keep Islamic State-style jihadism from coming to Thailand" And for those who follow things like this, why would that be, jihad being more of a political and foreign policy statement than anything about religion? And peace talks with whom? If things get jihadi-hot in the south at the same time that the military junta becomes a 'repressive dictatorship' via western media. well, then you'll have an answer. Hopefully that won't come to pass. But partitioning being the rage nowadays......just saying. Edited November 21, 2017 by connda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 10 hours ago, RichardColeman said: One small active Jihadi cell and Bang (literally) goes the Thai tourism industry and if yo think Thailand is poor now, wait till the farang leave. How long did the dip after the Bangkok bombings last? All of 15mins? Tourists regard the possibilities to croak in Thailand, mostly due to insane traffic, as "exotic" and "so free". They'll flock in even if you install an automatic head cutting machine at immigration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srikcir Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, DrTuner said: How long did the dip after the Bangkok bombings last? Lasted for about one year. Average daily arrivals to Thailand fell from 15,000 or 17% fall in tourist arrivals Data from ForwardKeys, which tracks over 14 million travel bookings a day, suggests that for the five days after the bombing compared to the same period in 2014 showed net bookings to Thailand down 65% and business travel from China tanking 350%. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-blast-tourism/bomb-takes-toll-on-thai-tourism-govt-predicts-swift-rebound-idUSKCN0QV0SY20150826 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redline Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 On 11/21/2017 at 6:57 AM, observer90210 said: Make sure they get enough food, games , pu*sy and booze...and believe it or not !!!...none will be stupid enough to blow it all for any crazy religious cause !! I believe that is the case currently, from what I have read and talked to some guys that live down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thongkorn Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 The War in the South of Thailand is nothing to do with Muslims Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave67 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Having worked and lived in Malaysia for six years imo , a Jihad in the south could not happen without the co-operation of the Malaysia government which is dominated by the majority Malays. Najib Razak the most corrupt man in Asia, Malaysian PM looks after the Malays as have every other prime minister before him. The Malays have the extremists under control as the majority are content with their Government. It is suggested that the conflict in the south of Thailand is funded through the back door by the Malaysian Government who are happy with a conflict in the headlines rather than their own corruption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thongkorn Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 22 hours ago, Dave67 said: Having worked and lived in Malaysia for six years imo , a Jihad in the south could not happen without the co-operation of the Malaysia government which is dominated by the majority Malays. Najib Razak the most corrupt man in Asia, Malaysian PM looks after the Malays as have every other prime minister before him. The Malays have the extremists under control as the majority are content with their Government. It is suggested that the conflict in the south of Thailand is funded through the back door by the Malaysian Government who are happy with a conflict in the headlines rather than their own corruption Both Governments are pouring petrol on the fire in the South. The people in between dont want to be Thai or Malaysian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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