SURVEY: Unemployment a looming problem or not?

[Scott]

SURVEY:  Unemployment--a looming problem or not?

There was a recent thread about the slight rise in unemployment and the move toward automation and how it might affect employment in Thailand.   In your opinion, will Thailand be facing a problem with unemployment in the not too distant future?

Please feel free to leave a comment on the situation.

 

Unemployment in Thailand – a problem or not?

https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/1014950-unprecedented-jobs-decline-demands-quick-action/

[Samui Bodoh]

Yes, unemployment is going to be a problem in Thailand.

 

The root of the problem is that Thai people aren't receiving a quality education that will prepare them for an uncertain future; the next fifty(?) years are going to be marked by the need for flexibility of the workforce. And unfortunately for the Thai people, they are not receiving the skills necessary to be problem-solvers.

 

Future employment will rely on the ability to adapt to ever-changing circumstances. 

 

I have posted this story before; several years back I saw an interview with the late Lee Kwan Yew (spelling) where he was asked if he feared for the future of Singapore in light of its neighbours larger population and abundant natural resources. He simply smiled, looked at the camera and said "what are their education systems like?".

 

There is a very simple equation for the future.

 

If a person is educated to solve problems and adapt to an ever-changing economic environment, they will have a job for life.

 

If a person does not have the skills to acquire new skills, then they are likely to become unemployable rather quickly.

 

And the sad fact is that many Thai people are going to become unemployable, relatively soon.

[jaywalker]

44 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

If a person does not have the skills to acquire new skills, then they are likely to become unemployable rather quickly.

They already know everything!

 

Thai will be the Lingua Franca soon etc...

 

----------

I've worked with some Thais in the past (was hired as a trainer/consultant), & tried to show them proper, expedient, efficient ways to do things.

 

They had ABSOLUTELY NO INTEREST in proper, expedient, efficient ways to do things.

 

They just didn't want to learn. Fairly young guys too, between 20 & 30 years old, so it wasn't like trying to teach an old dog new tricks.

[connda]

How does unemployment become a problem with Thailand is deluged in migrant labor that they need in the country to fill out the job market.
Plus there is a huge entrepreneurial, free market where virtually anyone with a small amount of capital can start their own business. 

Now, Thais not wanting to work is a different story.  I know enough Thai men who sit on their butts while their girlfriends or wife works, but those are not unemployed. 

[Ceruhe]

Werent these jokers claiming something like a less than 2% unemployment statistic? Not sure which problem thy be talking about therefore...

[Sid Celery]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Yes, unemployment is going to be a problem in Thailand.

 

The root of the problem is that Thai people aren't receiving a quality education that will prepare them for an uncertain future; the next fifty(?) years are going to be marked by the need for flexibility of the workforce. And unfortunately for the Thai people, they are not receiving the skills necessary to be problem-solvers.

 

Future employment will rely on the ability to adapt to ever-changing circumstances. 

 

I have posted this story before; several years back I saw an interview with the late Lee Kwan Yew (spelling) where he was asked if he feared for the future of Singapore in light of its neighbours larger population and abundant natural resources. He simply smiled, looked at the camera and said "what are their education systems like?".

 

There is a very simple equation for the future.

 

If a person is educated to solve problems and adapt to an ever-changing economic environment, they will have a job for life.

 

If a person does not have the skills to acquire new skills, then they are likely to become unemployable rather quickly.

 

And the sad fact is that many Thai people are going to become unemployable, relatively soon.

 

Agree. The incompetence of the military government and their seeming attachment to a 'jam tomorrow' approach to attracting support from the population make major problems with the economy more or less inevitable.

 

Lets not forget that this are not a popular government, whatever people will say for their own security if asked by anyone who they think might have links to the government. Let's also remember that they took power by force. If they were popular they would not have needed guns, they would have been electable.

 

And I don't think they'll be allowed to rely on their usual source of support for much longer. The new incumbent has, I think, his own plans for becoming more popular to the people. Stupid he is not and I think he can see which way the wind blows.

 

The sands of time may be running out for this lot.

[huawei]

45 minutes ago, jaywalker said:

They already know everything!

 

Thai will be the Lingua Franca soon etc...

 

----------

I've worked with some Thais in the past (was hired as a trainer/consultant), & tried to show them proper, expedient, efficient ways to do things.

 

They had ABSOLUTELY NO INTEREST in proper, expedient, efficient ways to do things.

 

They just didn't want to learn. Fairly young guys too, between 20 & 30 years old, so it wasn't like trying to teach an old dog new tricks.

I think you are being a little bit unfair, it's all about how they have been educated.

 

Those from good schools ( Bangkok centric), good uni, international schools, educated partly abroad would act differently.

 

i have worked with many companies in Thailand and assisted in recruitment for international companies or where the management was foreign bias..first criteria was no thainess..one of the characteristic you describe above, but they were targeted for specific middle management roles.

 

any foreigner who thinks that simply because their child can speak English and read English and therefore has an advantage is deluding themselves. Educated Thais have good English , good written skills better than some Luk Krung..for those jobs within good companies, with good training etc..and it's no co incidence that the overall quality of Thai employees is generally higher..they want what everyone wants a fair chance, a place where you can express an opinion, be collaborative etc..

 

Thai companies especially those where a dominant family is still in place are in my experience a nightmare for someone to work for, would not wish the lack of meritocracy, push down culture, age constraints on any enthusiastic child..they just become fodder..

 

uk education or overseas should be part of your child's education or work experience, it is the one element where foreigners can assist their child. To not do so is ignoring a huge advantage offered to them.

 

education favours the rich here...at least in the uk, oz, USA, Europe your child is on a more equal playing field.

 

[PatOngo]

Watching rice grow takes up a lot of slack.

[Sid Celery]

2 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Yes, unemployment is going to be a problem in Thailand.

 

The root of the problem is that Thai people aren't receiving a quality education that will prepare them for an uncertain future; the next fifty(?) years are going to be marked by the need for flexibility of the workforce. And unfortunately for the Thai people, they are not receiving the skills necessary to be problem-solvers.

 

Future employment will rely on the ability to adapt to ever-changing circumstances. 

 

I have posted this story before; several years back I saw an interview with the late Lee Kwan Yew (spelling) where he was asked if he feared for the future of Singapore in light of its neighbours larger population and abundant natural resources. He simply smiled, looked at the camera and said "what are their education systems like?".

 

There is a very simple equation for the future.

 

If a person is educated to solve problems and adapt to an ever-changing economic environment, they will have a job for life.

 

If a person does not have the skills to acquire new skills, then they are likely to become unemployable rather quickly.

 

And the sad fact is that many Thai people are going to become unemployable, relatively soon.

Speaking English is not a panacea, it's a side-show advantage but indicative of a wider set of problems (attitude, intelligence, experience etc). What is required in Thailand (in my view), is a complete change of approach.

 

1. Greng-jai must be allowed to wither on the vine. It has no purpose except to keep people in jobs who should not be in jobs.

2. The whole common courtesy alignment must change. In every successful country, the customer is king. In Thailand, every half educated lout (male or female) in a shop, bank, company etc is king because they are allowed to think thay are superior to customers. It's a remnant from a former age and it must stop.

3. The whole business of refusing to talk to people if they don't like what is being said has to go, as does the prtactice of ignoring emails if they contain complaints. A surprising number of senior managers just ignore emails and phone calls in Thailand. This must stop, and I don't mean replace them with some insincere but politically-correct mouthpiece. Managers need to manage, not con people with carefully crafted buzz-words and phrases.

4. The whole business of making managers unavailable to the customer must stop, or customers will stop spending money. Get a life, get a clue, earn your pay and manage. If you are not customer-facing as a manager, then you need to go and be replaced by someone who is.

 

If Thais can reform themselves by doing these and other things, then Thailand may survive. I have my doubts, and I just don't think these people are fit to survive. For them, the dustbin of history seems to me to be the right and well-deserved destination.

 

At times like this, I admire the otherwise non-admirable Maoist approach. If you are someone used to deference and greng-jai, then be sacked and go plant rice for 5 years. I guarantee your perspective will change. Same for those who are semi-educated louts who think they're superior to customers.

 

Is this opinion shaped by my experience of and in Thailand? Oh yes. Very much so.

[natway09]

The problem will be that Thailand will have insufficient workers for the next 4 years

[Sid Celery]

33 minutes ago, natway09 said:

The problem will be that Thailand will have insufficient workers for the next 4 years

 

Should be fun. I'll get in some more popcorn.

 

Maybe they'll get some of those fictitious tourists to help?

 

[SiSePuede419]

There's still a lot of opportunities here....

 

Where are all the Segway tours? ?

 

 

Therearen't enough 7-11's yet. 

 

You hardly see any Starbucks. 

 

There's room on the sidewalk for more Steak and Salad places. 

 

And it's really hard to find Thai Rolled Ice Cream compared to New York City. 

 

Also could use more Bubble Tea stands. 

 

And Baja style Fish Tacos are WIDE OPEN MAN.

 

At least a Taco Bell at Central with fancy plates and silverware (upmarket)!!!1!1! ?

[seajae]

big problem is that many do not want to work, they think labouring work is beneath them and do not like doing anything physical.  Education is extremely poor and many are still partially illiterate after they finish all their schooling, they are not capable of thinking for themselves and refuse to follow directions from anyone. Thainess is a big problem as well, they think they know better than everyone else, refuse to accept any fault, put their own wants in front of customers/ the company and will argue with you when you try to explain how to do the work required, their arrogance makes it very hard to get any sort of decent work from them. While there are those that are great workers and willing to learn there are those that are not, age doesnt come onto it either as some of the older ones are just as bad as the young ones. In Australia I have had out of work professors and other professionals doing manual labour for me, here that doesnt happen because they are too scared of losing face and it is not in an air conditioned office, the fact they could earn money rather than have nothing doesnt come into it, as Thailand becomes more modern I can see the unemployment rising a lot unless attitudes  change

[Enoon]

5 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Yes, unemployment is going to be a problem in Thailand.

 

The root of the problem is that Thai people aren't receiving a quality education t

 

It is but one of the feeble branches that grow from the poorly developed trunk of the tree.

 

The root(s) of the problem(s) lie, out of sight, beneath a thin layer of topsoil, under its ribbon festooned and gold leaf flaked canopy, which, from a distance, gives the impression of abundance.   

 

Any attempt to scrape away that topsoil (to attend to the roots) and the creatures that live in the topsoil (themselves consuming most of whatever meagre fruit the tree produces) will attack.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 10, 2017 by Enoon

[Enoon]

3 hours ago, Sid Celery said:

 I have my doubts, and I just don't think these people are fit to survive. For them, the dustbin of history seems to me to be the right and well-deserved destination.

 

 

 

"These" people deserve an opportunity.

 

"Those" people have already had more than enough.

 

 

Edited December 10, 2017 by Enoon

[Sid Celery]

37 minutes ago, Enoon said:

 

"These" people deserve an opportunity.

 

"Those" people have already had more than enough.

 

 

 

You'll need to explain that I think. You're probably right but more clarity as to whom you mean by 'these' and 'those' would help me avoid misunderstanding, though I know you know what you meant.

Edited December 10, 2017 by Sid Celery

[khunPer]

7 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Yes, unemployment is going to be a problem in Thailand.

 

The root of the problem is that Thai people aren't receiving a quality education that will prepare them for an uncertain future; the next fifty(?) years are going to be marked by the need for flexibility of the workforce. And unfortunately for the Thai people, they are not receiving the skills necessary to be problem-solvers.

 

Future employment will rely on the ability to adapt to ever-changing circumstances. 

 

I have posted this story before; several years back I saw an interview with the late Lee Kwan Yew (spelling) where he was asked if he feared for the future of Singapore in light of its neighbours larger population and abundant natural resources. He simply smiled, looked at the camera and said "what are their education systems like?".

 

There is a very simple equation for the future.

 

If a person is educated to solve problems and adapt to an ever-changing economic environment, they will have a job for life.

 

If a person does not have the skills to acquire new skills, then they are likely to become unemployable rather quickly.

 

And the sad fact is that many Thai people are going to become unemployable, relatively soon.

You may well be right; however do we consider EU's (in general), USA's, Germany's, or Singapore School end education system better than Thailand..? Normally most, if not everybody, will say yes – but here are the present unemployment rates:

EU 7.6%
USA 4.4%
Germany 3.6%
Singapore 2.1%
Thailand 1.30%

 

Thailand has at the moment somewhere between 3 million and 6 million migrants workers – uncertain, as all are not registered, but at least 3 million – of which some are already heading back to their home countries, due to a higher demand for work force there, as political situation change and (foreign) investment begin to come. So in theory, there will in the nearer future be space for some 3 million job, or the first 3 million unemployed will be in work, replacing the migrant workers. Presume that 3 million, out of a population of almost 70 million, is about 7-10% of the work force. 

Will the Thai school and education system improve in due time..?

[Samui Bodoh]

45 minutes ago, khunPer said:

You may well be right; however do we consider EU's (in general), USA's, Germany's, or Singapore School end education system better than Thailand..? Normally most, if not everybody, will say yes – but here are the present unemployment rates:

EU 7.6%
USA 4.4%
Germany 3.6%
Singapore 2.1%
Thailand 1.30%

 

Thailand has at the moment somewhere between 3 million and 6 million migrants workers – uncertain, as all are not registered, but at least 3 million – of which some are already heading back to their home countries, due to a higher demand for work force there, as political situation change and (foreign) investment begin to come. So in theory, there will in the nearer future be space for some 3 million job, or the first 3 million unemployed will be in work, replacing the migrant workers. Presume that 3 million, out of a population of almost 70 million, is about 7-10% of the work force. 

Will the Thai school and education system improve in due time..?

You present an interesting argument, but let me respectfully disagree a bit...

 

"There are lies, damn lies and statistics"

 

I have to argue with the statistics presented, and more specifically with the comparison(s). Unemployment statistics in Thailand are not calculated in the same manner as other countries; if a Thai person is at home on the family farm, s/he is counted as a farm laborer regardless if s/he is a full-time worker or not. Comparisons of labor rates between Thailand and other countries must be taken with a grain of salt.

 

The other issue that I have is that migrant labor is among the lowest paid in Thailand, and an increase in Thai people doing the jobs that migrants are doing now cannot really be considered a good thing; perhaps employment numbers would go up but the quality of jobs would go down. Further, rather than increase the Thai labor participation in the workforce, I think it is much more likely that the migrants will be offered (small) pay increases. The actual payroll would remain relatively small and why gamble on an inexperienced Thai against a (still) low paid but experienced, skilled migrant? 

 

I think we are arguing about semantics. You may well be correct that the Thai participation in the labor force could go up, but I would argue that since the quality of those jobs would be going down, it is not an improvement or even a good thing. 

 

To sum up; the number of Thais may remain even or perhaps rise, but if they are manual labor, low-skill jobs then I do not think it is a bonus of any kind.

 

Edited December 10, 2017 by Samui Bodoh

[Sid Celery]

38 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

You present an interesting argument, but let me respectfully disagree a bit...

 

"There are lies, damn lies and statistics"

 

I have to argue with the statistics presented, and more specifically with the comparison(s). Unemployment statistics in Thailand are not calculated in the same manner as other countries; if a Thai person is at home on the family farm, s/he is counted as a farm laborer regardless if s/he is a full-time worker or not. Comparisons of labor rates between Thailand and other countries must be taken with a grain of salt.

 

The other issue that I have is that migrant labor is among the lowest paid in Thailand, and an increase in Thai people doing the jobs that migrants are doing now cannot really be considered a good thing; perhaps employment numbers would go up but the quality of jobs would go down. Further, rather than increase the Thai labor participation in the workforce, I think it is much more likely that the migrants will be offered (small) pay increases. The actual payroll would remain relatively small and why gamble on an inexperienced Thai against a (still) low paid but experienced, skilled migrant? 

 

I think we are arguing about semantics. You may well be correct that the Thai participation in the labor force could go up, but I would argue that since the quality of those jobs would be going down, it is not an improvement or even a good thing. 

 

To sum up; the number of Thais may remain even or perhaps rise, but if they are manual labor, low-skill jobs then I do not think it is a bonus of any kind.

 

 

In other words, they do with the stats what they do with everything else. They lie and they cheat.

 

Hardly news, but it's wonderful to see all the junta-huggers lining up with the stars in their eyes and drinking down the KoolAid.

 

1.3% unemployed my sweet bippy.

 

[midas]

I think the problem that lies ahead for Thailand is far wider than migrant workers supposedly stealing Thai jobs

 

MACHINES COMING TO TAKE MILLIONS OF THAI JOBS: REPORT

 

Quote

Huynh based his briefing on an ILO research published in July. The report identified the professions most vulnerable to automation in the next 20 years in five ASEAN member states – Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia.

http://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/business/2017/05/31/machines-coming-take-millions-thai-jobs-report/

[Samui Bodoh]

17 minutes ago, Sid Celery said:

 

In other words, they do with the stats what they do with everything else. They lie and they cheat.

 

Hardly news, but it's wonderful to see all the junta-huggers lining up with the stars in their eyes and drinking down the KoolAid.

 

1.3% unemployed my sweet bippy.

 

Respectfully, I think you have misunderstood my post.

 

There is nothing inherently wrong with the way that Thailand measures its workforce or employment numbers, the difficulty is in making comparisons. However, if you are aware of the different methods it isn't a problem.

 

And I don't think you mean to call KhunPer a "Junta-hugger", but just in case I'll tell you that he is one of the very good posters on this site- no rabid politics of any kind that I have ever seen.

 

Cheers

[Sid Celery]

21 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Respectfully, I think you have misunderstood my post.

 

There is nothing inherently wrong with the way that Thailand measures its workforce or employment numbers, the difficulty is in making comparisons. However, if you are aware of the different methods it isn't a problem.

 

And I don't think you mean to call KhunPer a "Junta-hugger", but just in case I'll tell you that he is one of the very good posters on this site- no rabid politics of any kind that I have ever seen.

 

Cheers

 

Thankyou. It seems you have misunderstood my post, for which, not being Thai, I take responsibility. I tend to judge people post by post, nt by reputation. In this case, I found his post apologetic for the junta. Might be wrong of course, that's been known, but that's how I found it. Not that it's important or anything.

[khunPer]

4 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

You present an interesting argument, but let me respectfully disagree a bit...

 

"There are lies, damn lies and statistics"

 

I have to argue with the statistics presented, and more specifically with the comparison(s). Unemployment statistics in Thailand are not calculated in the same manner as other countries; if a Thai person is at home on the family farm, s/he is counted as a farm laborer regardless if s/he is a full-time worker or not. Comparisons of labor rates between Thailand and other countries must be taken with a grain of salt.

 

The other issue that I have is that migrant labor is among the lowest paid in Thailand, and an increase in Thai people doing the jobs that migrants are doing now cannot really be considered a good thing; perhaps employment numbers would go up but the quality of jobs would go down. Further, rather than increase the Thai labor participation in the workforce, I think it is much more likely that the migrants will be offered (small) pay increases. The actual payroll would remain relatively small and why gamble on an inexperienced Thai against a (still) low paid but experienced, skilled migrant? 

 

I think we are arguing about semantics. You may well be correct that the Thai participation in the labor force could go up, but I would argue that since the quality of those jobs would be going down, it is not an improvement or even a good thing. 

 

To sum up; the number of Thais may remain even or perhaps rise, but if they are manual labor, low-skill jobs then I do not think it is a bonus of any kind.

 

Thanks for your kind reply and explanation.

 

As I said in the beginning of my initial post, »You may well be right«; however, the World seem not to be so black & white only, there are at least 50 shades of gray in between.

 

And yes, statistics are extremely difficult to compare, but I will argue, that statistics from what is normally considered highly educated and reliable countries, also can be extremely wrong to compare. The example I mention – and then you can consider to compare with the Thai statistics and the very credible explanation for a low percentage – is my home country, Denmark, which I know quite well. Also, Denmark – and Scandinavian countries in general – are considered trustworthy, with transparent democratic government system, and high ranking level of schooling and education (mind you, Finland and Singapore both top the Pisa-tests).

 

However, the Danish unemployment rate is 5.7% (Aug. 2017) – still lower than the average EU unemployment rate of 7.6% – but that is not the whole truth. Out of a population of about 6½ million (i.e. 1/10th of Thailand), little over 1 million of the potential work force, people between 16 years old and 64 years of age, are taken care of by public support, including the 5.7% unemployed. A major part, more than 300.000 persons, are students at the universities and other higher education, receiving a small salary from the government, so they can afford to study (tuition is free). Some are on sick-leave and some on maternity leave, and some are unemployed, all cared for by the social welfare system. And some – and here is my major point – has been moved out of the unemployment statistics, by being called something else than "unemployed". By a sweep the unemployment rate fell down to this stunning, with European eyes, low figure as 5-something percent; by taking all those individual, which for some-or-other reason would never be privately employed again due to low or no education; not in mood at all for work after long time unemployment with a "government salary" instead; etc. The government simply gave them early retirement pension, and in present statistics, from 2016, they count as 208.000 persons, or around 20% of the total lot on social welfare receivers, whilst the unemployed, all inclusive, are 235.000, or about another 20%. So in fact the true unemployment rate should not be 5.7%, but rather around 7-10% (depending of the smaller number of persons truly qualified for early retirement).

 

I don't know if similar things is accounted for in other Western countries, but even the Danish rate has been made politically low, it's the one used in both EU and international statistics – and the one compared with Thailands 1.3%, which also may be lower than in real; however, people working "part time" in farming may not be available full time for the labor market, and unemployment rates are normally counted as full timers available for work; but we don't really know the true figure.

 

Unfortunately we do not have better measures than official statistics – and our individual subjective impressions.

 

And that make me wish to comment of your argument about quality of work; non scientific and extremely subjective, as it what my eyes see, and my own experience. My point is: what makes an unskilled Lao farmer, or unskilled khmer farmer, better skilled construction worker, than an unskilled Thai farmer..?

 

From my own experience with construction worker crews of mixed Lao, Khmer and Thai workers – all paid same daily salary, slightly over minimum wage, plus free camp to live in – the best skilled, and also motivated, construction workers were the Thais.

 

Some of the low skilled jobs that are disappearing seem to be the man handing out parking cards when entering a shopping mall parking – locally for both of us, you may have noticed the BigC and Tesco stopped doing that years ago – being replaced by CCTV cameras. There will be other similar kind of jobs disappearing, but probably not to a level as we saw service jobs disappear in Europe, because that will too unthai.

 

Robots, that's what the present talk is most about, especially industrial robots both replacing low skilled factory workers, but not the least, also improving the quality of the work, so we don't end up with so-called "Monday cars". That's already, to a certain degree, part of the industries in Asia, and more will come (perhaps leaving some workers for jobs abandoned by migrant workers in Thailand). In Europe some financial gurus talks about that in the future, people will receive a salary from the government for "not working", as there will not be work for all, when more-and-more robots takes over; which however confuses me, because the European politicians tells us again-and-again that Europe need the Middle East and African migrants (often called refuges), as in the future Europe will otherwise be short of work force.

 

And again-and-again we hear arguments about future protection against unemployment is schooling, and high level of education – makes me once again question the Europen demand for unskilled migrants (some high profiled debaters in Denmark calls them "Nigerian day laborers and Somali goat shepherds") – which as common sense, do not fit into unemployment rates for numerous countries.

 

My conclusion – and I think totally in agreement with your comment about "compare" – can we, and I mean both Thailand and Western so-called developed countries, compare us with Singapore..? Is there more to it than just schooling end education..?

 

I see Singapore as a place with a different general spirit than many other countries – that's why I don't believe in the more simple black & white issues; nor the European politicians claimed need for unskilled migrants to fill the need of future workforce – perhaps Thailand, and it's nationalist thinking, even can obtain more of that spirit, that many a Western country...

[khunPer]

4 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

And I don't think you mean to call KhunPer a "Junta-hugger", but just in case I'll tell you that he is one of the very good posters on this site- no rabid politics of any kind that I have ever seen.

[Credo]

Unemployment will be a problem because many of the local population will be unemployable.   They are not garnering the larger, educated, trained group of workers that will be needed in the future.   

 

Unless everyone can open a food stall and still make a living, they will be unemployed, underemployed and poverty stricken.   

 

Time will tell.   

 

 

[Samui Bodoh]

13 hours ago, khunPer said:

Thanks for your kind reply and explanation.

 

As I said in the beginning of my initial post, »You may well be right«; however, the World seem not to be so black & white only, there are at least 50 shades of gray in between.

 

And yes, statistics are extremely difficult to compare, but I will argue, that statistics from what is normally considered highly educated and reliable countries, also can be extremely wrong to compare. The example I mention – and then you can consider to compare with the Thai statistics and the very credible explanation for a low percentage – is my home country, Denmark, which I know quite well. Also, Denmark – and Scandinavian countries in general – are considered trustworthy, with transparent democratic government system, and high ranking level of schooling and education (mind you, Finland and Singapore both top the Pisa-tests).

 

However, the Danish unemployment rate is 5.7% (Aug. 2017) – still lower than the average EU unemployment rate of 7.6% – but that is not the whole truth. Out of a population of about 6½ million (i.e. 1/10th of Thailand), little over 1 million of the potential work force, people between 16 years old and 64 years of age, are taken care of by public support, including the 5.7% unemployed. A major part, more than 300.000 persons, are students at the universities and other higher education, receiving a small salary from the government, so they can afford to study (tuition is free). Some are on sick-leave and some on maternity leave, and some are unemployed, all cared for by the social welfare system. And some – and here is my major point – has been moved out of the unemployment statistics, by being called something else than "unemployed". By a sweep the unemployment rate fell down to this stunning, with European eyes, low figure as 5-something percent; by taking all those individual, which for some-or-other reason would never be privately employed again due to low or no education; not in mood at all for work after long time unemployment with a "government salary" instead; etc. The government simply gave them early retirement pension, and in present statistics, from 2016, they count as 208.000 persons, or around 20% of the total lot on social welfare receivers, whilst the unemployed, all inclusive, are 235.000, or about another 20%. So in fact the true unemployment rate should not be 5.7%, but rather around 7-10% (depending of the smaller number of persons truly qualified for early retirement).

 

I don't know if similar things is accounted for in other Western countries, but even the Danish rate has been made politically low, it's the one used in both EU and international statistics – and the one compared with Thailands 1.3%, which also may be lower than in real; however, people working "part time" in farming may not be available full time for the labor market, and unemployment rates are normally counted as full timers available for work; but we don't really know the true figure.

 

Unfortunately we do not have better measures than official statistics – and our individual subjective impressions.

 

And that make me wish to comment of your argument about quality of work; non scientific and extremely subjective, as it what my eyes see, and my own experience. My point is: what makes an unskilled Lao farmer, or unskilled khmer farmer, better skilled construction worker, than an unskilled Thai farmer..?

 

From my own experience with construction worker crews of mixed Lao, Khmer and Thai workers – all paid same daily salary, slightly over minimum wage, plus free camp to live in – the best skilled, and also motivated, construction workers were the Thais.

 

Some of the low skilled jobs that are disappearing seem to be the man handing out parking cards when entering a shopping mall parking – locally for both of us, you may have noticed the BigC and Tesco stopped doing that years ago – being replaced by CCTV cameras. There will be other similar kind of jobs disappearing, but probably not to a level as we saw service jobs disappear in Europe, because that will too unthai.

 

Robots, that's what the present talk is most about, especially industrial robots both replacing low skilled factory workers, but not the least, also improving the quality of the work, so we don't end up with so-called "Monday cars". That's already, to a certain degree, part of the industries in Asia, and more will come (perhaps leaving some workers for jobs abandoned by migrant workers in Thailand). In Europe some financial gurus talks about that in the future, people will receive a salary from the government for "not working", as there will not be work for all, when more-and-more robots takes over; which however confuses me, because the European politicians tells us again-and-again that Europe need the Middle East and African migrants (often called refuges), as in the future Europe will otherwise be short of work force.

 

And again-and-again we hear arguments about future protection against unemployment is schooling, and high level of education – makes me once again question the Europen demand for unskilled migrants (some high profiled debaters in Denmark calls them "Nigerian day laborers and Somali goat shepherds") – which as common sense, do not fit into unemployment rates for numerous countries.

 

My conclusion – and I think totally in agreement with your comment about "compare" – can we, and I mean both Thailand and Western so-called developed countries, compare us with Singapore..? Is there more to it than just schooling end education..?

 

I see Singapore as a place with a different general spirit than many other countries – that's why I don't believe in the more simple black & white issues; nor the European politicians claimed need for unskilled migrants to fill the need of future workforce – perhaps Thailand, and it's nationalist thinking, even can obtain more of that spirit, that many a Western country...

 

If only there were merely 50 shades of grey between black and white!

 

My native country is similar to yours in terms of measuring employment in the sense that it does not always come across clearly. If you look at the Maritime (eastern) provinces, there is a long (now 3-4 generation) stretch of massive underemployment, and stats have been adjusted to deal with that. A large number of people there used to work in fisheries, and thus their work only encompassed about 4-6 months a year. In more modern times, there has been a lack of viable, year-round employment so people have been working 4-6 months of the year in tourism, fisheries, infrastructure development, etc and then claiming unemployment benefits for the rest of the time. Now, we have "seasonally-adjusted' employment rates as without that they would bounce up and down like a Yo-Yo, depending on the time of the year. Comparing the un/employment rate with Thailand's rate would be ludicrous.

 

The above is why I quote the old adage of 'Lies, damn lies and statistics', which to me also includes for our own subjective readings of situations. Comparisons, while tempting, rarely are really accurate.

 

What makes a Lao/Burmese/Khmer a better unskilled laborer that a Thai? I will accept your personal experiences on the matter, but cite the anecdotal evidence that I hear; I have heard many, many stories that the Thais simply aren't as effective as the migrants in terms of unskilled labor, and the plural of anecdote is data. Lets agree to disagree and leave it at that. 

 

That guy at the motorcycle parking lot at Big C! I am stunned that he lasted as long as he did! Sorry all, that is a Samui-centric story...

 

The issue of robots and/or automation is going to be a fascinating one, especially in places like Thailand where there is still a large amount of unskilled labor being utilized. How is it going to turn out? I suspect that for manufacturing there will be an unstoppable move towards much higher degrees of automation for reasons of economics; the use of human labor simply won't be able to compete over the long haul. That said, there will also be a need for humans still, if for no other reason than humans will demand it. In my view, a helpful shop-keeper is something that I will always value, and a good salesman will still be a better salesman that a machine. But, we will see how that turns out...

 

The next few decades are going to be some of the most challenging in human history, and I hope that we (the human race) are up to the effort. It is likely that we are going to see great dislocation in our lives as the changes wrought by automation and/or robotics take hold. 

 

Honestly, I am often happier these days as a middle-ager with savings than a youngster starting out...

 

PS. You are welcome! My motivations were selfish; I enjoy our discussions/debates as they are both civilized and fruitful, and I want them to continue on. Cheers

 

Edited December 11, 2017 by Samui Bodoh
lack of coffee

[khunPer]

22 hours ago, Sid Celery said:

 

In other words, they do with the stats what they do with everything else. They lie and they cheat.

 

Hardly news, but it's wonderful to see all the junta-huggers lining up with the stars in their eyes and drinking down the KoolAid.

 

1.3% unemployed my sweet bippy.

 

I'm afraid you totally misunderstood the point in my post, which was in reply to high education is the solution of unemployment, which from available statistics don't show it's value. I'm however not arguing that we can believe the stats, nor pretending to be a "junta-hugger", as I began my reply to user Samui Bodoh with »You may well be right«. 

[bdenner]

My 23 yo step daughter graduated from a collage 6 months ago, here in Udon Thani, with certificates in mathematics and accountancy. During the 5 year study period she did "intern" work with a number of banks and Nok Air, all gave her glowing reports and she has applied for employment with all - BUT ALAS - nothing.

 

We had Big C open a new store in our Amphore of Ban Dung - 2000 applicants for 250 positions. Results = Employees from over the road at Tesco were 'white anted' automatically put on other positions required at least 10000 Baht (graft) application fee to the Management, the greater payers were given the jobs. No education history was considered = Effin pricks! If we were in the know I would have payed to give her a kick start into the workforce. Apparently it goes on all over Thailand in ALL areas of employment!

 

Yep, while this sort of crap goes on the great unwashed will never get along.

Edited December 11, 2017 by bdenner
Clarification

[khunPer]

"I read the news today, oh boy", about Bangkok bus conductors shall be replaced by machines, where the passengers can buy tickets for cash...

 

The article in Khaosod English "1.6 BILLION BAHT BUS FARE BOX PLAN HALTED" (Dec. 12th) states, that the plan is to replace 2,600 staff members with machines in a 1.6 billion baht 5-year lease contract; that is 1,600,000,000 baht.

 

My simple head-math – without taking a lot of various factors, including maintenance of the machines, in consideration; i.e. the machines need to be emptied for cash and filled with some kind of tickets/paper-rolls – 1,600,000,000 divided with 5 equals 320,000,000 (320 million baht), and 320,000,000 divided with 2,600 equals 123,076 baht (admit, I used a calculator for that last figure); i.e. does that equal the annual salary of one of the 2,600 staff members, do a buss conductor get 10,256 baht in salary a month – including social security, so net around 9,500 baht – or more than that..?

 

I'm not referring to the story in the article, that there seem to be problems with the machines after testing the 800 of them so far installed, but I rise the question what the machines – which are leased for 5-years only; as the passengers may not use cash anymore, five years ahead – actually save of costs, as to me it seem like about same level as the salary for physical human staff members..?

 

Replacing humans with machines, are normally a question of saving some money – apart for when it's merely cost vs. quality, which don't seem to be the case here – personally I may prefer a (kind smiling) human instead of a "robot", when it's about service...

 

Or is it perhaps because, it's so difficult to find enough staff, due to the low unemployment rate..?

 

Quote

“At first we intended to use the machines to replace all of the 2,600 staff members, or conductors,” Nuttachat Charuchinda [chairman of the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority] said in an interview. “But after we installed them, the cash boxes have problems. They are not stable yet. They are being fixed right now.”

[ ... ]
In the meantime, bus conductors with their iconic clap-clap cylinders are here to stay. Nuttachat said he expects them to either retire or take up early retirement packages until all buses are equipped with cashless card readers.

 

Edited December 12, 2017 by khunPer